• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률 과정

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Comparison of Digital Mammography and Digital Breast Tomosynthesis (디지털 유방촬영기기와 3차원 디지털 유방단층영상합성기기의 비교연구)

  • Kim, Ye-Seul;Park, Hye-Suk;Choi, Jae-Gu;Choi, Young-Wook;Park, Jun-Ho;Lee, Jae-Jun;Kwak, Su-Bin;Kim, Eun-Hye;Kim, Ju-Yeon;Jung, Hyun-Jung;Lee, Haeng-Hwa;Bae, Gyu-Won;Lee, Mi-Young;Kim, Hee-Joung
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.261-268
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    • 2012
  • Breast cancer is the second leading cause of women cancer death in Korea. The key for reducing disease mortality is early detection. Although digital mammography (DM) has been credited as one of the major reasons for the early detection to decrease in breast cancer mortality observed in the last 20 years, DM is far from perfect for several limitations. Digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) is expected to overcome some inherent limitations of conventional mammography caused by overlapping of normal tissue and pathological tissue during the standard 2D projections for the improved lesion margin visibility and early breast cancer detection. In this study, we compared a DM system and DBT system acquired with different thickness of breast phantom. We acquired breast phantom data with same average glandular dose (AGD) from 1 mGy to 4 mGy under same experimental condition. The contrast, micro-calcification measurement accuracy and observer study were conducted with breast phantom images. As a result, the higher accuracy of lesion detection with DBT system compared to DM system was demonstrated in this study. Furthermore, the pain of patients caused by severe compression can be reduced with DBT system. In conclusion, the results indicated that DBT system play an important role in breast cancer detection.

The NCAM Land-Atmosphere Modeling Package (LAMP) Version 1: Implementation and Evaluation (국가농림기상센터 지면대기모델링패키지(NCAM-LAMP) 버전 1: 구축 및 평가)

  • Lee, Seung-Jae;Song, Jiae;Kim, Yu-Jung
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.307-319
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    • 2016
  • A Land-Atmosphere Modeling Package (LAMP) for supporting agricultural and forest management was developed at the National Center for AgroMeteorology (NCAM). The package is comprised of two components; one is the Weather Research and Forecasting modeling system (WRF) coupled with Noah-Multiparameterization options (Noah-MP) Land Surface Model (LSM) and the other is an offline one-dimensional LSM. The objective of this paper is to briefly describe the two components of the NCAM-LAMP and to evaluate their initial performance. The coupled WRF/Noah-MP system is configured with a parent domain over East Asia and three nested domains with a finest horizontal grid size of 810 m. The innermost domain covers two Gwangneung deciduous and coniferous KoFlux sites (GDK and GCK). The model is integrated for about 8 days with the initial and boundary conditions taken from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Final Analysis (FNL) data. The verification variables are 2-m air temperature, 10-m wind, 2-m humidity, and surface precipitation for the WRF/Noah-MP coupled system. Skill scores are calculated for each domain and two dynamic vegetation options using the difference between the observed data from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and the simulated data from the WRF/Noah-MP coupled system. The accuracy of precipitation simulation is examined using a contingency table that is made up of the Probability of Detection (POD) and the Equitable Threat Score (ETS). The standalone LSM simulation is conducted for one year with the original settings and is compared with the KoFlux site observation for net radiation, sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, and soil moisture variables. According to results, the innermost domain (810 m resolution) among all domains showed the minimum root mean square error for 2-m air temperature, 10-m wind, and 2-m humidity. Turning on the dynamic vegetation had a tendency of reducing 10-m wind simulation errors in all domains. The first nested domain (7,290 m resolution) showed the highest precipitation score, but showed little advantage compared with using the dynamic vegetation. On the other hand, the offline one-dimensional Noah-MP LSM simulation captured the site observed pattern and magnitude of radiative fluxes and soil moisture, and it left room for further improvement through supplementing the model input of leaf area index and finding a proper combination of model physics.

Composting Method and Physicochemical Characteristics of By-products from Home Garden Plants and Small Herbivore Feces (옥수수 부산물과 토끼 분변의 이화학적 성분특성 및 퇴비 제조조건)

  • Kim, Dae-Gyun;Kim, Jin-Young;Lee, Won-Suk;Kim, Hye-Hyeong;Seo, Myung-Whoon;Park, In-Tae;Hyun, Junge;Yoo, Gayoung
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.695-703
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    • 2018
  • This study was conducted to suggest a sustainable farming practice forresource recycling in vegetable gardens of North Korea. In North Korea, farmers are allowed to own private vegetable gardens less than $100m^2$. However, usage of fertilizers in private vegetable gardens is very limited due to economic sanctions by UN security council. If North and South Korea initiated the cooperative action in the near future, agricultural sector would be the highest priority cooperation area. Considering the current North Korean situation in agriculture, we would like to suggest a method for producing organic fertilizer manure. For raw materials for producing manure, we selected corn byproduct, which is the most abundant material, and rabbits' feces, which are easily obtained from individual private farms in North Korea. As we cannot get corn byproducts and rabbits' feces from North Korea, we prepared samples of corn byproducts and rabbits; feces from many places in South Korea. After statistical analysis of variance, there was no significant difference in the T-N contents of corn byproducts from Gyeonggi, Gangwon, Chungnam, Chungbuk, Jeollabuk and Gyeongsangnam-dos, which indicates that the fertilizing quality of corn byproducts does not vary significantly in the spatial scale of South. Korea. In this sense, if we use corn samples from Gyeonggi province, they would not be very different from those of North Korean regions. Physicochemical properties of rabbits' feces were different between those eating feed grains and those eating plants only. Hence, we used rabbits' feces of the rabbits from Yeonchun area, which were fed by plants only. Using three different mixing ratios of corn byproducts and rabbits' feces, composting was conducted for 60 days. The mixing ratio of 1:1 produced the manure with % T-N of 1.98% and OM/N ratio of 31.7 after 30 days of composting, which is comparable to the quality of commercial manure.

Evaluation of Perceived Naturalness of Urban Parks Using Hemeroby Index (헤메로비 등급(Hemeroby Index)을 활용한 도시공원의 인지된 자연성 평가)

  • Kim, Do-Eun;Son, Yong-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.49 no.2
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    • pp.89-100
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    • 2021
  • This study evaluated the degree of interaction between the people and the environment using perceived naturalness measure. The seventh-grade index of Hemeroby was divided into subclasses of land cover according to degrees of human influence. The grade was standardized for each indicator to evaluate the current state of urban parks in Seoul by applying probability density function and weight. User evaluation was conducted on six distinctive parks selected. In the results, three implications were found between spatial evaluation according to the perceived naturalness. First, park users evaluated highly for the spaces such as broad-leaved forest, coniferous forest and mixed forest evaluated highly in the Hemeroby grade index. Park users generally recognized that various types of trees in the area had high naturalness. The density of trees is one of the factors in perceived naturalness. Second, water spaces were highly evaluated for naturalness in the Hemeroby grade index. However, the perceived naturalness of water spaces such as inland wetlands, pond and reservoir evaluated in various ways depending on environmental conditions around the park. Third, perceived naturalness is easily evaluated through vertical landscape elements such as trees rather than horizontal landscapes such as grassland. The perceived naturalness is similar to the naturalness evaluation using land cover. However the study found the perceived naturalness for a specific space was different from the Hemeroby index. Perceived naturalness by the user includes the content that the individual sees, hears, and experiences. Park users are usually structuring naturalness through evaluating the value of urban green spaces based on personal perception. Therefore there is no absolute standard criterion for evaluating the naturalness of urban green spaces. A deeper study is needed that considers user bundles or user groups with conflicting interests on the perceived naturalness in urban parks. These studies will be essential data on the direction of naturalness urban park service should provide.

The verdict category and legal decision: Focused on the role of representation of 'innocent' (평결범주와 일반인의 법적판단: '무죄표상'의 역할을 중심으로)

  • Han, Yuhwa
    • Korean Journal of Forensic Psychology
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2022
  • This study tested the effect of the verdict category of lay-participation trial in Korea on the legal decision of layperson and the role of representation of 'innocent' in the process. Representation of 'innocent' refers to a psychological threshold for deciding someone's innocence (no fault or sin) in a general sense. The functions as a threshold for a legal decision of 'beyond a reasonable doubt (BRD)' and the individual threshold (IT), regarded as a standard for judgment of guilt established by law and an estimate of an individual's threshold, respectively, were compared. This study used a 2×2 complete factorial design in which the verdict category (guilty/innocent vs. guilty/not guilty) and the defendant's likelihood of guilt (low vs. high) were manipulated. Data from 137 lay-people who voluntarily participated in the online experiment was analyzed. The experiment's procedure was in the order of measuring 'representation of innocent' and the likelihood of guilt of an accused, presenting one of four trial vignettes, and obtaining legal decisions (verdict confidence and estimation of the likelihood of guilt for the defendant). As a result, it was found that the verdict category did not significantly affect the legal decision of layperson. However, the guilty verdict rate of the 'guilty/innocent' condition tended to be higher than those of the 'guilty/not guilty' condition. The layperson's representation of 'innocent' and the verdict category had an interaction effect on the difference between BRD and IT (threshold change) at the significance level of .1. In the 'guilty/innocent' condition, the threshold change varying with layperson's representation of 'innocent' was larger than in the 'guilty/not guilty' condition. In comparing the function of BRD and IT, IT significantly predicted the lay person's legal decision at the significance level of .1 by interacting with the likelihood of guilt for the defendant. Therefore, it could be said that IT was a better threshold estimator than BRD. The implication of this study is that it provided experimental evidence for the effect of the verdict category of lay-participation trial in Korea, which is a problem often raised among lawyers, and suggested logical reasoning and empirical grounds for the psychological mechanism of the possible effect.

Preliminary Inspection Prediction Model to select the on-Site Inspected Foreign Food Facility using Multiple Correspondence Analysis (차원축소를 활용한 해외제조업체 대상 사전점검 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Hae Jin Park;Jae Suk Choi;Sang Goo Cho
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.121-142
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    • 2023
  • As the number and weight of imported food are steadily increasing, safety management of imported food to prevent food safety accidents is becoming more important. The Ministry of Food and Drug Safety conducts on-site inspections of foreign food facilities before customs clearance as well as import inspection at the customs clearance stage. However, a data-based safety management plan for imported food is needed due to time, cost, and limited resources. In this study, we tried to increase the efficiency of the on-site inspection by preparing a machine learning prediction model that pre-selects the companies that are expected to fail before the on-site inspection. Basic information of 303,272 foreign food facilities and processing businesses collected in the Integrated Food Safety Information Network and 1,689 cases of on-site inspection information data collected from 2019 to April 2022 were collected. After preprocessing the data of foreign food facilities, only the data subject to on-site inspection were extracted using the foreign food facility_code. As a result, it consisted of a total of 1,689 data and 103 variables. For 103 variables, variables that were '0' were removed based on the Theil-U index, and after reducing by applying Multiple Correspondence Analysis, 49 characteristic variables were finally derived. We build eight different models and perform hyperparameter tuning through 5-fold cross validation. Then, the performance of the generated models are evaluated. The research purpose of selecting companies subject to on-site inspection is to maximize the recall, which is the probability of judging nonconforming companies as nonconforming. As a result of applying various algorithms of machine learning, the Random Forest model with the highest Recall_macro, AUROC, Average PR, F1-score, and Balanced Accuracy was evaluated as the best model. Finally, we apply Kernal SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) to present the selection reason for nonconforming facilities of individual instances, and discuss applicability to the on-site inspection facility selection system. Based on the results of this study, it is expected that it will contribute to the efficient operation of limited resources such as manpower and budget by establishing an imported food management system through a data-based scientific risk management model.

The Effects of The Distinction in Family Business on CEO Succession Types: A Behavioral Agency Theory Perspective (행동대리인 이론관점에서 가족기업 특성이 승계에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Ki-Hyung;Moon, Chul-Woo;Kim, Sang-kyun;Lee, Byung-Hee
    • Korean small business review
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.1-39
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    • 2017
  • The first generation of the business that had been founded in 1960~1970s faces the situation to consider the succession of the family business developed by devotion of their whole lives in the critical timing to the next generation. In the process of selecting the party of family business succession, it is required to consider a variety of succession types including smooth transfer to the other family member or the employee of the company, selling the company, or hiring external specialist. Foreign countries acknowledge the importance of the succession in the family owned company to perform multiple studies on the influential factors to the succession, distinction, and types of family business succession; and they utilize the results for the related policy development and the support of family owned business succession. However, few studies have been conducted on the succession of the domestic family owned business and majority of them are related to the types of succession. Considering its share and influential power in the domestic economy, it is necessary to develop the guideline and the policies to solve many issues on the succession of the family owned business by systemic studies. Hence, the impact of the main characteristics in the family owned business on the types of its succession was analyzed in this study focusing on five domains of Socioemtional Wealth (SEW) in view of Behavioral Agency Theory by Gomez-Mejia et al. (2007) using the data from 540 family owned small-to-medium sized businesses so as to analyze the issues on their business succession. Upon the empirical analysis results, it was confirmed that they were influenced to the selection of succession type by family succession > internal employee succession > external succession, for the variables of social contribution which were non-financial characteristics, internal employee succession > family succession > external succession for the intellectual properties, and family succession > external succession for the management participation of the family. The distinction of social contribution were influenced the most to the selection of the succession types. Financial factors, business performance, and R&D investment variables were not significantly influenced to their selection of the succession types. In case of simultaneous management, the family succession rate was high and it showed the control effect to strengthen selecting family owned business with R&D investment, social contribution, and company history variables. The behavioral agency theory used in this study was confirmed with high explanation power on the family owned business succession. The family owned business showed the tendency to maintain SEW, and non-financial factors such as accumulated know-how and social contribution based on the long term history were significantly affected to the succession in the small-to-medium sized family owned businesses, unlike general large sized listed companies. The results of this study are expected to be helpful practically for the succession of the family owned business and to suggest the guideline for the development of governmental policy.

Elementary School Teachers' Educational Experiences, Readiness, and Needs for Science Education That Addresses the Risks Posed by Science and Technology (과학기술로 인해 발생할 수 있는 위험을 다루는 과학교육에 관한 초등교사의 교육 경험과 교육 준비도 및 요구도)

  • Kim, Jinhee;Na, Jiyeon
    • Journal of Korean Elementary Science Education
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.523-537
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    • 2023
  • This study encompassed the responses of 284 elementary school teachers, focusing on their teaching experiences, readiness, and needs for science education concerning the risk posed by science and technology. The key findings are summarized as follows. First, a significant portion of teachers lacked prior experience in addressing risks associated with science and technology within their science education practices. Second, a greater number of teachers were aware of the inclusion of risk-related content in the 2022 revised science curriculum's achievement standards than those who were not. Third, in terms of teachers' understanding of risk perception, risk assessment, and risk management, they demonstrated a relatively high level of understanding of risk perception but a lower level of understanding of risk assessment. Fourth, most teachers had not undergone any formal education or training related to risk. Fifth, among the 10 objectives of risk education, teachers displayed the highest competence in teaching "information use" and "action skills," while their lowest competence was observed in "interpreting probabilities" and "evaluating risk assessment." Sixth, a majority of teachers believe that it is important to teach about the risks posed by science and technology in school science classes, with "action skills," "information use," and "decision-making skills" being considered the most important and "action skills," "information use," and "influence of mass media" being regarded as the most urgent. However, teachers anticipated difficulties in addressing risk in school science classes, including a lack of relevant educational materials, a lack of understanding of teaching theories related to risk education, and the relationship between science curriculum content and achievement standards. Seventh, as a result of calculating the educational needs for each of the 10 goals of risk education, "influence of risk perception," "decision-making skills," "action skills," and "evaluate risk assessment" were the priority needs of elementary school teachers.

A Study on Industries's Leading at the Stock Market in Korea - Gradual Diffusion of Information and Cross-Asset Return Predictability- (산업의 주식시장 선행성에 관한 실증분석 - 자산간 수익률 예측 가능성 -)

  • Kim Jong-Kwon
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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    • 2004.11a
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    • pp.355-380
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    • 2004
  • I test the hypothesis that the gradual diffusion of information across asset markets leads to cross-asset return predictability in Korea. Using thirty-six industry portfolios and the broad market index as our test assets, I establish several key results. First, a number of industries such as semiconductor, electronics, metal, and petroleum lead the stock market by up to one month. In contrast, the market, which is widely followed, only leads a few industries. Importantly, an industry's ability to lead the market is correlated with its propensity to forecast various indicators of economic activity such as industrial production growth. Consistent with our hypothesis, these findings indicate that the market reacts with a delay to information in industry returns about its fundamentals because information diffuses only gradually across asset markets. Traditional theories of asset pricing assume that investors have unlimited information-processing capacity. However, this assumption does not hold for many traders, even the most sophisticated ones. Many economists recognize that investors are better characterized as being only boundedly rational(see Shiller(2000), Sims(2201)). Even from casual observation, few traders can pay attention to all sources of information much less understand their impact on the prices of assets that they trade. Indeed, a large literature in psychology documents the extent to which even attention is a precious cognitive resource(see, eg., Kahneman(1973), Nisbett and Ross(1980), Fiske and Taylor(1991)). A number of papers have explored the implications of limited information- processing capacity for asset prices. I will review this literature in Section II. For instance, Merton(1987) develops a static model of multiple stocks in which investors only have information about a limited number of stocks and only trade those that they have information about. Related models of limited market participation include brennan(1975) and Allen and Gale(1994). As a result, stocks that are less recognized by investors have a smaller investor base(neglected stocks) and trade at a greater discount because of limited risk sharing. More recently, Hong and Stein(1999) develop a dynamic model of a single asset in which information gradually diffuses across the investment public and investors are unable to perform the rational expectations trick of extracting information from prices. Hong and Stein(1999). My hypothesis is that the gradual diffusion of information across asset markets leads to cross-asset return predictability. This hypothesis relies on two key assumptions. The first is that valuable information that originates in one asset reaches investors in other markets only with a lag, i.e. news travels slowly across markets. The second assumption is that because of limited information-processing capacity, many (though not necessarily all) investors may not pay attention or be able to extract the information from the asset prices of markets that they do not participate in. These two assumptions taken together leads to cross-asset return predictability. My hypothesis would appear to be a very plausible one for a few reasons. To begin with, as pointed out by Merton(1987) and the subsequent literature on segmented markets and limited market participation, few investors trade all assets. Put another way, limited participation is a pervasive feature of financial markets. Indeed, even among equity money managers, there is specialization along industries such as sector or market timing funds. Some reasons for this limited market participation include tax, regulatory or liquidity constraints. More plausibly, investors have to specialize because they have their hands full trying to understand the markets that they do participate in

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Analysis of shopping website visit types and shopping pattern (쇼핑 웹사이트 탐색 유형과 방문 패턴 분석)

  • Choi, Kyungbin;Nam, Kihwan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.85-107
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    • 2019
  • Online consumers browse products belonging to a particular product line or brand for purchase, or simply leave a wide range of navigation without making purchase. The research on the behavior and purchase of online consumers has been steadily progressed, and related services and applications based on behavior data of consumers have been developed in practice. In recent years, customization strategies and recommendation systems of consumers have been utilized due to the development of big data technology, and attempts are being made to optimize users' shopping experience. However, even in such an attempt, it is very unlikely that online consumers will actually be able to visit the website and switch to the purchase stage. This is because online consumers do not just visit the website to purchase products but use and browse the websites differently according to their shopping motives and purposes. Therefore, it is important to analyze various types of visits as well as visits to purchase, which is important for understanding the behaviors of online consumers. In this study, we explored the clustering analysis of session based on click stream data of e-commerce company in order to explain diversity and complexity of search behavior of online consumers and typified search behavior. For the analysis, we converted data points of more than 8 million pages units into visit units' sessions, resulting in a total of over 500,000 website visit sessions. For each visit session, 12 characteristics such as page view, duration, search diversity, and page type concentration were extracted for clustering analysis. Considering the size of the data set, we performed the analysis using the Mini-Batch K-means algorithm, which has advantages in terms of learning speed and efficiency while maintaining the clustering performance similar to that of the clustering algorithm K-means. The most optimized number of clusters was derived from four, and the differences in session unit characteristics and purchasing rates were identified for each cluster. The online consumer visits the website several times and learns about the product and decides the purchase. In order to analyze the purchasing process over several visits of the online consumer, we constructed the visiting sequence data of the consumer based on the navigation patterns in the web site derived clustering analysis. The visit sequence data includes a series of visiting sequences until one purchase is made, and the items constituting one sequence become cluster labels derived from the foregoing. We have separately established a sequence data for consumers who have made purchases and data on visits for consumers who have only explored products without making purchases during the same period of time. And then sequential pattern mining was applied to extract frequent patterns from each sequence data. The minimum support is set to 10%, and frequent patterns consist of a sequence of cluster labels. While there are common derived patterns in both sequence data, there are also frequent patterns derived only from one side of sequence data. We found that the consumers who made purchases through the comparative analysis of the extracted frequent patterns showed the visiting pattern to decide to purchase the product repeatedly while searching for the specific product. The implication of this study is that we analyze the search type of online consumers by using large - scale click stream data and analyze the patterns of them to explain the behavior of purchasing process with data-driven point. Most studies that typology of online consumers have focused on the characteristics of the type and what factors are key in distinguishing that type. In this study, we carried out an analysis to type the behavior of online consumers, and further analyzed what order the types could be organized into one another and become a series of search patterns. In addition, online retailers will be able to try to improve their purchasing conversion through marketing strategies and recommendations for various types of visit and will be able to evaluate the effect of the strategy through changes in consumers' visit patterns.