• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률적 신뢰구간

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Statistical Model of 3D Positions in Tracking Fast Objects Using IR Stereo Camera (적외선 스테레오 카메라를 이용한 고속 이동객체의 위치에 대한 확률모델)

  • Oh, Jun Ho;Lee, Sang Hwa;Lee, Boo Hwan;Park, Jong-Il
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.52 no.1
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    • pp.89-101
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    • 2015
  • This paper proposes a statistical model of 3-D positions when tracking moving targets using the uncooled infrared (IR) stereo camera system. The proposed model is derived from two errors. One is the position error which is caused by the sampling pixels in the digital image. The other is the timing jitter which results from the irregular capture-timing in the infrared cameras. The capture-timing in the IR camera is measured using the jitter meter designed in this paper, and the observed jitters are statistically modeled as Gaussian distribution. This paper derives an integrated probability distribution by combining jitter error with pixel position error. The combined error is modeled as the convolution of two error distributions. To verify the proposed statistical position error model, this paper has some experiments in tracking moving objects with IR stereo camera. The 3-D positions of object are accurately measured by the trajectory scanner, and 3-D positions are also estimated by stereo matching from IR stereo camera system. According to the experiments, the positions of moving object are estimated within the statistically reliable range which is derived by convolution of two probability models of pixel position error and timing jitter respectively. It is expected that the proposed statistical model can be applied to estimate the uncertain 3-D positions of moving objects in the diverse fields.

Bayesian ratio estimation in finite populations (有限 母集團에서 베이지안 比推定)

  • 이석훈;박래현;최종석
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.9-17
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    • 1992
  • In this paper we give a Bayesian approach to problems of estimation for the ratio in finite populations. Adopting the Ericson's superpopulatin approach in which the finite population of size N is viewed as arising form a random sample of N units from some superpopulation. We derive the exact posterior of the ratio under the noninformative prior on superpopulation parameters. Based on our results we compute an exact Bayesian confidence interval and compare this with the existing methods.

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Development of 2-D Water Quality Management Model by Using Reliability Analysis (신뢰도 해석기법을 이용한 2차원 수질관리모형의 개발)

  • Kim, Sang-Ho;Han, Kun-Yeun;Kim, Won;Choi, Hung-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.35 no.5
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    • pp.463-474
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    • 2002
  • A two-dimensional water quality management model, Unsteady/Uncertainty Water Quality Model(UUWQM), is developed for a hydrodynamic analysis, an advection-diffusion analysis, and a reliability analysis by using uncertainty technique. The model is applied to the 35 km reach of Sungju to Hyunpoong in the midstream of Nakdong River. 2-D hydrodynamic and water quality analyses are peformed in this reach. Important input variables are decided by sensitivity analysis and verified by Monte Carlo method. Frequency distributions of water quality concentrations are computed from MFOSM method and Monte Carlo method at several locations in this study area. A water quality management system is constructed by calculating the violation probabilities of existing water quality standards.

Distance and Probability-based Real Time Transmission Scheme for V2V Protocol using Dynamic CW allocation (V2V 프로토콜에서 실시간 전송을 위한 동적 CW 할당 기법)

  • Kim, Soo-Ro;Kim, Dong-Seong;Lee, Ho-Kyun
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.50 no.2
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    • pp.80-87
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    • 2013
  • This paper proposes a CW (Contention window) allocation scheme for real-time data transmission of emergency data on VANET (Vehicle to vehicle Ad hoc Network, V2V) protocol. The proposed scheme reduces the probability of packet collisions on V2V protocol and provides bandwidth efficiency with short delay of emergency sporadic data. In the case of high density traffic, the proposed scheme provides a decrease of recollision probability using dynamic CW adjustments. For the performance analysis, a throughput, end-to-end delays, and network loads were investigated on highway traffic. Simulation results show the performance enhancements in terms of the throughput, end-to-end delays, and network loads.

A Study on Development of Assessment Model for Spatio-Temporal Changes in River Bed Using Numerical Models (수치모형을 이용한 하상변동 시공간 평가 기법 개발 연구)

  • Kim, Chul-Moon;Lee, Jeong-Ju;Choi, Su-Won;Ahn, Won-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.44 no.12
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    • pp.975-990
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    • 2011
  • In this study, to develop an assessment method for spatio-temporal riverbed changes, a 1-dimensional model (HEC-RAS) and a 2-dimensional model (CCHE2D) were built and applied. As for the analysis of a riverbed's long-term change in a real stream, three new assessment methods were developed, which are called the "Sediment section cumulative curve", "Sediment section moment", and "Sediment probability distribution function." These methods were used to assess the characteristics of riverbed changes using a consistent valuation standard and to understand changes in quantities intuitively. From the results of this study, sediment characteristics of cross sections can be detected effectively by applying the "Sediment section cumulative curve" method to determine whether there is any sedimentation or erosion in total emission. The amount of sedimentation or erosion occurring in the right or left banks, which divided by center column, could be presented as one criterion by applying the "Sediment section moment" method. This approach could be utilized as an indicator for sediment predictions. Spatio-temporal sediment variables can be presented quantitatively by determining the mean and uncertain boundaries through the "Sediment probability distribution function", and finally, the results can be illustrated for each cross section to provide intuitive recognition.

A Study on Correlation between Compressive Strength and Rebound Hardness of Urban Underground Structures (도시철도 지하구조물 압축강도와 반발경도의 상관관계에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Jung-Youl;Lee, Soo-Jae;Chung, Jee-Seung
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.655-661
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    • 2020
  • In this study, the correlation between concrete core compressive strength and rebound hardness of urban railway underground structures was analyzed. The equations for the range of rebound hardness were derived and compared with the measured concrete core strengths for each range of rebound hardness to confirm the adequacy of the estimated compressive strength. As the result, the linear regression analysis results of the average compressive strength by the Gaussian probability density function (representative compressive strength estimation formula) and the estimation formula by the rebound hardness range were founded to match well within 3% of the experimental concrete core compressive strength test results. Therefore, the stochastic statistical analysis using the rebound hardness measurement results suggested in this study could be help to secure the confidence level of the correlation between the rebound hardness and the concrete compressive strength which are relatively large deviation according to the estimation equations.

Influencing Factors of Near Miss Experience on Medication in Small and Medium-Sized Hospital Nurses (중소병원 간호사의 투약 근접오류경험 영향요인)

  • No, Me-Hee;Chung, Kyung-Hee
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.20 no.10
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    • pp.424-435
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    • 2020
  • The study was descriptive survey research for establishment of patient safety culture in small and medium-sized hospitals as providing baseline data of educational program regarding safe medication and prevention of near miss on medication, checking influencing factors of nurses near miss experience on medication in small and medium-sized hospital. The collected data was analyzed by SPSS/WIN 20.0 program to obtain mean, frequency, x2-test, independent t-test, one-way ANOVA, logistic regression. The influencing factors of near miss experience on medication was working department and patient safety culture among general characteristic. The nurses who were working in general ward had lesser chance to experience near miss rather than nurses working in special department (Odds ratio:2.23, 95%, Confidence Interval: 1.07~4.67, p=.032). The 1 point higher in patient safety culture, the lesser chance to experience in near miss (Odds ratio: 2.24, 95% Confidence Interval: 1.02~4.95, p=.045). To sum up the result of this study, nurses working in special department had higher chance to experience near miss rather than nurses working in general wards. The higher patient safety culture awareness was the lower near miss was experienced. Thus, miss surveillance system for improvement of nurses' patient safety culture awareness should be developed. Moreover, educational program for medication considering nurses' career and department' character should be requested with simulation training considering and theory education.

TGC-based Fish Growth Estimation Model using Gaussian Process Regression Approach (가우시안 프로세스 회귀를 통한 열 성장 계수 기반의 어류 성장 예측 모델)

  • Juhyoung Sung;Sungyoon Cho;Da-Eun Jung;Jongwon Kim;Jeonghwan Park;Kiwon Kwon;Young Myoung Ko
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.61-69
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    • 2023
  • Recently, as the fishery resources are depleted, expectations for productivity improvement by 'rearing fishery' in land farms are greatly rising. In the case of land farms, unlike ocean environments, it is easy to control and manage environmental and breeding factors, and has the advantage of being able to adjust production according to the production plan. On the other hand, unlike in the natural environment, there is a disadvantage in that operation costs may significantly increase due to the artificial management for fish growth. Therefore, profit maximization can be pursued by efficiently operating the farm in accordance with the planned target shipment. In order to operate such an efficient farm and nurture fish, an accurate growth prediction model according to the target fish species is absolutely required. Most of the growth prediction models are mainly numerical results based on statistical analysis using farm data. In this paper, we present a growth prediction model from a stochastic point of view to overcome the difficulties in securing data and the difficulty in providing quantitative expected values for inaccuracies that existing growth prediction models from a statistical point of view may have. For a stochastic approach, modeling is performed by introducing a Gaussian process regression method based on water temperature, which is the most important factor in positive growth. From the corresponding results, it is expected that it will be able to provide reference values for more efficient farm operation by simultaneously providing the average value of the predicted growth value at a specific point in time and the confidence interval for that value.

Developing an Accident Model for Rural Signalized Intersections Using a Random Parameter Negative Binomial Method (RPNB모형을 이용한 지방부 신호교차로 교통사고 모형개발)

  • PARK, Min Ho;LEE, Dongmin
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.554-563
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    • 2015
  • This study dealt with developing an accident model for rural signalized intersections with random parameter negative binomial method. The limitation of previous count models(especially, Poisson/Negative Binomial model) is not to explain the integrated variations in terms of time and the distinctive characters a specific point/segment has. This drawback of the traditional count models results in the underestimation of the standard error(t-value inflation) of the derived coefficient and finally affects the low-reliability of the whole model. To solve this problem, this study improves the limitation of traditional count models by suggesting the use of random parameter which takes account of heterogeneity of each point/segment. Through the analyses, it was found that the increase of traffic flow and pedestrian facilities on minor streets had positive effects on the increase of traffic accidents. Left turning lanes and median on major streets reduced the number of accidents. The analysis results show that the random parameter modeling is an effective method for investigating the influence on traffic accident from road geometries. However, this study could not analyze the effects of sequential changes of driving conditions including geometries and safety facilities.

A Comparison of the Interval Estimations for the Difference in Paired Areas under the ROC Curves (대응표본에서 AUC차이에 대한 신뢰구간 추정에 관한 고찰)

  • Kim, Hee-Young
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.275-292
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    • 2010
  • Receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curves can be used to assess the accuracy of tests measured on ordinal or continuous scales. The most commonly used measure for the overall diagnostic accuracy of diagnostic tests is the area under the ROC curve(AUC). When two ROC curves are constructed based on two tests performed on the same individuals, statistical analysis on differences between AUCs must take into account the correlated nature of the data. This article focuses on confidence interval estimation of the difference between paired AUCs. We compare nonparametric, maximum likelihood, bootstrap and generalized pivotal quantity methods, and conduct a monte carlo simulation to investigate the probability coverage and expected length of the four methods.