• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률적 상황

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Drought Analysis and Assessment by Using Land Surface Model on South Korea (지표수문해석모형을 활용한 국내 가뭄해석 적용성 평가)

  • Son, Kyung-Hwan;Bae, Deg-Hyo;Chung, Jun-Seok
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.44 no.8
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    • pp.667-681
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    • 2011
  • The objective of this study is to evaluate the applicability of a Land Surface Model (LSM) for drought analysis in Korea. For evaluating the applicability of the model, the model was calibrated on several upper dam site watersheds and the hydrological components (runoff and soil moisture) were simulated over the whole South Korea at grid basis. After converting daily series of runoff and soil moisture data to accumulated time series (3, 6, 12 months), drought indices such as SRI and SSI are calculated through frequency analysis and standardization of accumulated probability. For evaluating the drought indices, past drought events are investigated and drought indices including SPI and PDSI are used for comparative analysis. Temporal and spatial analysis of the drought indices in addition to hydrologic component analysis are performed to evaluate the reproducibility of drought severity as well as relieving of drought. It can be concluded that the proposed indices obtained from the LSM model show good performance to reflect the historical drought events for both spatially and temporally. From this point of view, the LSM can be useful for drought management. It leads to the conclusion that these indices are applicable to domestic drought and water management.

New composite distributions for insurance claim sizes (보험 청구액에 대한 새로운 복합분포)

  • Jung, Daehyeon;Lee, Jiyeon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.363-376
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    • 2017
  • The insurance market is saturated and its growth engine is exhausted; consequently, the insurance industry is now in a low growth period with insurance companies that face a fierce competitive environment. In such a situation, it will be an important issue to find the probability distributions that can explain the flow of insurance claims, which are the basis of the actuarial calculation of the insurance product. Insurance claims are generally known to be well fitted by lognormal distributions or Pareto distributions biased to the left with a thick tail. In recent years, skew normal distributions or skew t distributions have been considered reasonable distributions for describing insurance claims. Cooray and Ananda (2005) proposed a composite lognormal-Pareto distribution that has the advantages of both lognormal and Pareto distributions and they also showed the composite distribution has a higher fitness than single distributions. In this paper, we introduce new composite distributions based on skew normal distributions or skew t distributions and apply them to Danish fire insurance claim data and US indemnity loss data to compare their performance with the other composite distributions and single distributions.

Risk analysis for sidetrack construction during subway tunnel operation (기존 지하철 터널 운영 중 대피선 건설 시공 리스크 분석)

  • Jun, Jonghun;Chung, Heeyoung;Koh, Sung-Yil;Yoon, Hee Taek;Yi, Na Hyun;Choi, Hangseok
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.401-417
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    • 2020
  • As an increasing demand for rapid railway transportation, the construction of sidetrack is inevitable to operate local and express trains simultaneously. However, the current technologies for the sidetrack construction method require a long construction period by interrupting the operation of the existing subway line, as well as cause a huge economic loss. Thus, it is necessary to study the sidetrack construction method under the special situation that the subway is in operation and to analyze the risk of the existing tunnel enlargement process for the sidetrack construction. Therefore, in this paper, the Government Complex Gwacheon station on Subway Line 4 was considered as a target station for the virtual sidetrack construction and the optimal sidetrack construction plan was derived. Subsequently, the application of risk management process was carried out in the order of identifying risk, risk response planning, performing a risk analysis, risk monitoring and control for potential risk events during the construction of sidetrack under the subway operation. A total of eight potential risk events and risk mitigation methods were selected, and a risk assessment matrix was established using the five-step risk probability and impact level criteria to perform the risk assessment including residual risks. Based on the results of the risk assessment, the risk grade and the reduction effect of each risk mitigation method were confirmed.

Normalized Cross Correlation-based Multiview background Subtraction for 3D Object Reconstruction (3차원 객체 복원을 위한 정규 상관도 기반 다중 시점 배경 차분 기법)

  • Paeng, Kyunghyun;Hwang, Sung Soo;Kim, Hee-Dong;Kim, Sujung;Yoo, Jisung;Kim, Seong Dae
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.50 no.6
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    • pp.228-237
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, we propose a normalized cross correlation(NCC)-based multiview background subtraction method which is robust when an object and background have similar color. When the background of the capturing environment is not artificially composed, the regions in the background images which would be occluded by an object tends to have difference colors. The colors of those regions, however, becomes similar when an object enters the capturing environment. Based on this assumption, this paper proposes a concept of GoNCC(Graph of Normalized Cross Correlation). GoNCC is the distribution of NCC between a pixel in an image and pixels related by epipolar constraints with the pixel. The proposed multiview background subtraction method is performed by comparing GoNCC of the current images with the background images. To reduce computational complexity, we perform multiview background subtraction only to the pixels undetermined by single view background subtraction. Experimental results show that the proposed method is more robust to color similarity between an object and background than a single-view background subtraction method and a previous multiview background subtraction method.

Suggestion of an Evaluation Chart for Landslide Susceptibility using a Quantification Analysis based on Canonical Correlation (정준상관 기반의 수량화분석에 의한 산사태 취약성 평가기법 제안)

  • Chae, Byung-Gon;Seo, Yong-Seok
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.43 no.4
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    • pp.381-391
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    • 2010
  • Probabilistic prediction methods of landslides which have been developed in recent can be reliable with premise of detailed survey and analysis based on deep and special knowledge. However, landslide susceptibility should also be analyzed with some reliable and simple methods by various people such as government officials and engineering geologists who do not have deep statistical knowledge at the moment of hazards. Therefore, this study suggests an evaluation chart of landslide susceptibility with high reliability drawn by accurate statistical approaches, which the chart can be understood easily and utilized for both specialists and non-specialists. The evaluation chart was developed by a quantification method based on canonical correlation analysis using the data of geology, topography, and soil property of landslides in Korea. This study analyzed field data and laboratory test results and determined influential factors and rating values of each factor. The quantification analysis result shows that slope angle has the highest significance among the factors and elevation, permeability coefficient, porosity, lithology, and dry density are important in descending order. Based on the score assigned to each evaluation factor, an evaluation chart of landslide susceptibility was developed with rating values in each class of a factor. It is possible for an analyst to identify susceptibility degree of a landslide by checking each property of an evaluation factor and calculating sum of the rating values. This result can also be used to draw landslide susceptibility maps based on GIS techniques.

Studies on Target Market of GAP Certified Raw-Ginseng (GAP 인증 수삼의 표적시장 연구)

  • Kim, Gwan-Hou;Lee, Ka-Soon;Yi, Doo-Hee;Hong, Seung-Jee
    • Food Science and Preservation
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    • v.18 no.5
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    • pp.684-691
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    • 2011
  • This study was carried out to suggest producers' marketing direction for GAP certified rawginseng using STP(segmentation, targeting and positioning). In order to fulfill this object, conjoint analysis and cluster analysis were used. The main results are as follows. Based on the results of part worth for attributes such as safety, size, and price, GAP certified raw-ginseng, large size, and low price were preferred to conventional ginseng, small size, and high price respectively. In the relative importance for each attributes, safety was 47.2%, size was 30.0%, and price was 17.8%. As a result of market segmentation, 3 consumer groups(large size preferred, safety preferred, lower price preferred) were classified. Among those groups, the safety preferred group was selected as a target market for GAP certified raw-ginseng and its market size was estimated approximately 2,968 tons which is 26.8% of total raw ginseng market.

Design and evaluation of a VPRS-based misbehavior detection scheme for VANETs (차량애드혹망을 위한 가변정밀도 러프집합 기반 부정행위 탐지 방법의 설계 및 평가)

  • Kim, Chil-Hwa;Bae, Ihn-Han
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.1153-1166
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    • 2011
  • Detecting misbehavior in vehicular ad-hoc networks is very important problem with wide range of implications including safety related and congestion avoidance applications. Most misbehavior detection schemes are concerned with detection of malicious nodes. In most situations, vehicles would send wrong information because of selfish reasons of their owners. Because of rational behavior, it is more important to detect false information than to identify misbehaving nodes. In this paper, we propose the variable precision rough sets based misbehavior detection scheme which detects false alert message and misbehaving nodes by observing their action after sending out the alert messages. In the proposed scheme, the alert information system, alert profile is constructed from valid actions of moving nodes in vehicular ad-hoc networks. Once a moving vehicle receives an alert message from another vehicle, it finds out the alert type from the alert message. When the vehicle later receives a beacon from alert raised vehicle after an elapse of time, then it computes the relative classification error by using variable precision rough sets from the alert information system. If the relative classification error is lager than the maximum allowable relative classification error of the alert type, the vehicle decides the message as false alert message. Th performance of the proposed scheme is evaluated as two metrics: correct ratio and incorrect ratio through a simulation.

Development of Hybrid Vision Correction Algorithm (Hybrid Vision Correction Algorithm의 개발)

  • Ryu, Yong Min;Lee, Eui Hoon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.61-73
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    • 2021
  • Metaheuristic search methods have been developed to solve problems with a range of purpose functions in situations lacking information and time constraints. In this study, the Hybrid Vision Correction Algorithm (HVCA), which enhances the performance of the Vision Correction Algorithm (VCA), was developed. The HVCA has applied two methods to improve the performance of VCA. The first method changes the parameters required by the user for self-adaptive parameters. The second method, the CGS structure of the Exponential Bandwidth Harmony Search With a Centralized Global Search (EBHS-CGS), was added to the HVCA. The HVCA consists of two structures: CGS and VCA. To use the two structures, a method was applied to increase the probability of selecting the structure with the optimal value as it was performed. The optimization problem was applied to determine the performance of the HVCA, and the results were compared with Harmony Search (HS), Improved Harmony Search (IHS), and VCA. The HVCA improved the number of times to find the optimal value during 100 repetitions compared to HS, IHS, and VCA. Moreover, the HVCA reduced the Number of Function Evaluations (NFEs). Therefore, the performance of the HVCA has been improved.

A Study on the Impact of AI Edge Computing Technology on Reducing Traffic Accidents at Non-signalized Intersections on Residential Road (이면도로 비신호교차로에서 AI 기반 엣지컴퓨팅 기술이 교통사고 감소에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Young-Gyu Jang;Gyeong-Seok Kim;Hye-Weon Kim;Won-Ho Cho
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.79-88
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    • 2024
  • We used actual field data to analyze from a traffic engineering perspective how AI and edge computing technologies affect the reduction of traffic accidents. By providing object information from 20m behind with AI object recognition, the driver secures a response time of about 3.6 seconds, and with edge technology, information is displayed in 0.5 to 0.8 seconds, giving the driver time to respond to intersection situations. In addition, it was analyzed that stopping before entering the intersection is possible when speed is controlled at 11-12km at the 10m point of the intersection approach and 20km/h at the 20m point. As a result, it was shown that traffic accidents can be reduced when the high object recognition rate of AI technology, provision of real-time information by edge technology, and the appropriate speed management at intersection approaches are executed simultaneously.

The Effects of The Distinction in Family Business on CEO Succession Types: A Behavioral Agency Theory Perspective (행동대리인 이론관점에서 가족기업 특성이 승계에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Ki-Hyung;Moon, Chul-Woo;Kim, Sang-kyun;Lee, Byung-Hee
    • Korean small business review
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.1-39
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    • 2017
  • The first generation of the business that had been founded in 1960~1970s faces the situation to consider the succession of the family business developed by devotion of their whole lives in the critical timing to the next generation. In the process of selecting the party of family business succession, it is required to consider a variety of succession types including smooth transfer to the other family member or the employee of the company, selling the company, or hiring external specialist. Foreign countries acknowledge the importance of the succession in the family owned company to perform multiple studies on the influential factors to the succession, distinction, and types of family business succession; and they utilize the results for the related policy development and the support of family owned business succession. However, few studies have been conducted on the succession of the domestic family owned business and majority of them are related to the types of succession. Considering its share and influential power in the domestic economy, it is necessary to develop the guideline and the policies to solve many issues on the succession of the family owned business by systemic studies. Hence, the impact of the main characteristics in the family owned business on the types of its succession was analyzed in this study focusing on five domains of Socioemtional Wealth (SEW) in view of Behavioral Agency Theory by Gomez-Mejia et al. (2007) using the data from 540 family owned small-to-medium sized businesses so as to analyze the issues on their business succession. Upon the empirical analysis results, it was confirmed that they were influenced to the selection of succession type by family succession > internal employee succession > external succession, for the variables of social contribution which were non-financial characteristics, internal employee succession > family succession > external succession for the intellectual properties, and family succession > external succession for the management participation of the family. The distinction of social contribution were influenced the most to the selection of the succession types. Financial factors, business performance, and R&D investment variables were not significantly influenced to their selection of the succession types. In case of simultaneous management, the family succession rate was high and it showed the control effect to strengthen selecting family owned business with R&D investment, social contribution, and company history variables. The behavioral agency theory used in this study was confirmed with high explanation power on the family owned business succession. The family owned business showed the tendency to maintain SEW, and non-financial factors such as accumulated know-how and social contribution based on the long term history were significantly affected to the succession in the small-to-medium sized family owned businesses, unlike general large sized listed companies. The results of this study are expected to be helpful practically for the succession of the family owned business and to suggest the guideline for the development of governmental policy.