• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Precision Engineering Conference
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• 2005.06a
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• pp.1682-1685
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• 2005

System algorithms estimated by deterministic input may occur the error between predicted and actual output. Especially, actual system can't predict the exact outputs due to uncertainty and tolerance of input parameters. A single output to a set of inputs has a limited value without the variation. Hence, we should consider various scatters caused by the load assessment, material characteristics, stress analysis and manufacturing methods in order to perform the robust design or estimate the reliability of structure. The system design with uncertainty should perform the probabilistic structural optimization with the statistical response and the reliability. This method calculated the probability distributions of the characteristics such as stress by combining stress analysis, response surface methodology and Monte-Carlo Method and got the probabilistic sensitivity. The sensitivity of structural response with respect to inconstant design variables was estimated by fracture probability. Therefore, this paper proposed the probabilistic reliability design method for fracture of uncorved freight end beam and the design criteria by fracture probability.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2011.07a
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• pp.654-655
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• 2011

운영예비력은 전력설비의 불시사고, 예상치 못한 전력수요 증가 등의 불확실 상황에 대비하기 위해 운영된다. 발전설비의 경제적 효율 및 부하분포에 따라 운영예비력이 지역별로 불균형하게 분포되면 특정 지역의 사고에 대해 신속히 대응하지 못할 수 있다. 특히, 전력수급의 상당부분을 타 지역에서의 송전에 의존하는 지역의 경우, 연계송전 선로 및 지역 내 발전설비 사고에 대비해 지역 내 충분한 운전예비력이 확보되어야 설비사고의 확대를 방지할 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 전력의 상당량을 외부로부터 수전하는 지역의 신속한 사고대응을 위한 지역 내운전예비력의 적정성 평가 방안을 제시하였다. 제시 방법에는 외부 연계선 및 발전설비의 사고 확률모델 및 수요예측 오차를 고려하여 지역 내운전예비력의 적정성을 평가할 수 있는 부하차단확률 지표를 제시하였다.

• Journal of Environmental Policy
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.79-105
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• 2014

Natech risk is a type of complex disasters that natural hazards trigger technological disaster or industrial accidents. Research on Natech risk has been started from the mid-1990s in European countries and the Unites States, and drawn much more attention after the Fukushima nuclear accident caused by the 2011 East Japan earthquake. While early studies on Natech risk have focused on the causal natural hazards and possibility to occur, and the resulting spill of hazardous materials from the perspective of science and engineering, the recent research interests lie on effective Natech risk management. Especially, emphasizing the difference of Natech risk management from traditional disaster management, issues of uncertainty management, integration between natural disaster and technological disaster, and responsibility, has been drawn attention. In Korea, Natech risk has not been introduced as a research topic. Although some regulatory improvements have been made in nuclear safety and chemical Substance management after the Fukushima disaster, the potential impact of natural hazards in these areas has not been considered yet. It is necessary to raise the issues of Natech risk management in research and policy areas through active discussion and interdisciplinary approaches.

• Composites Research
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• v.35 no.3
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• pp.188-195
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• 2022

This paper proposes a multiscale process-structural analysis methodology and applies to a battery housing part made of the short fiber-reinforced and fabric-reinforced composite layers. In particular, uncertainties of the material properties within the microscale representative volume element (RVE) were considered. The random spatial distribution of matrix properties in the microscale RVE was realized by the Karhunen-Loeve Expansion (KLE) method. Then, effective properties of the RVE reflecting on spatially varying matrix properties were obtained by the computational homogenization and mapped to a macroscale FE (finite element) model. Morever, through the hybrid process simulation, a FE (finite element) model mapping residual stress and fiber orientation from compression molding simulation is combined with one mapping fiber orientation from the draping process simulation. The proposed method is expected to rigorously evaluate the design requirements of the battery housing part and composite materials having various material configurations.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.73-83
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• 2006

Seepage analysis through unsaturated zone based on the theory of unsaturated flow is commonly performed to evaluate dam safety. However, the concepts of unsaturated soil behavior have not been transferred into the hands of practicing geotechnical engineers since the problems involving unsaturated soils often have the appearances of being extremely complex. There is variability and uncertainty associated with the unsaturated hydraulic properties that in turn will lead to variability in predicting unsaturated soil behavior such as seepage rate and the pore water pressure distribution. In this paper, measurements of the soil-water characteristic curve and saturated hydraulic conductivity for the core material of dam were conducted. Then, finite element stochastic analysis was used to capture the effect of unsaturated hydraulic properties on the seepage behavior of dam. It is observed that the amount of seepage increases, as the values of unsaturated soil parameters a and n increase. The values of m and p showed opposite trend.

• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.161-167
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• 2015

It is very difficult to predict time-series data. This is because data obtained from the signal having a non-linear characteristic has an uncertainty. In this paper, By differentiating time-series data is the average of the past data under the premise that change depending on what pattern, and find the soft look of time-series change pattern. This paper also apply the probability variables to generalize time-series data having a specific data according to the reflection ratio of the differentiation. The predicted value is estimated by removing cyclic movement and seasonal fluctuation, and reflect the trend by extracting the irregular fluctuation. Predicted value has demonstrated the superiority of the proposed algorithm and compared with the best results by a simple moving average and the moving average.

• Journal of Korean Society of Steel Construction
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• v.15 no.4 s.65
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• pp.413-422
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• 2003

Most engineers tend to rely on their intuition or existing data in formulating structural design or preliminary estimate of various conditions. Because of these variations, the artificial neural network is used as an alternative design model of the warren truss since it can handle uncertainty through the probability method. This research validated the approximate structural design model of the warren truss, with its proper parameter values of the neural network and design process falling within 10 percent torrence of the different designs that resulted between this model and the MIDAS program. The suggested model for the process was adapted for the truss design using the member section table, while time saving and efficiency are based on the allowed range of torrence.

• Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.51-58
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• 2008

Analytical probabilistic vulnerability analysis requires extensive computing effort as a result of the randomness in both input motion and response characteristics. In this study, a new methodology whereby a set of vulnerability curves are derived based on the fundamental response quantities of stiffness, strength and ductility is presented. A response database of coefficients describing lognormal vulnerability relationships is constructed by employing aclosed-form solution for a generalized single-degree-of-freedom system. Once the three fundamental quantities of a wide range of structural systems are defined, the vulnerability curves for various limit states can be derived without recourse to further simulation. Examples of application are given and demonstrate the extreme efficiency of the proposed approach in deriving vulnerability relationships.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.32 no.1B
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• pp.59-69
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• 2012

Probabilistic design is required to effectively consider the coastal environment of great uncertainty. However, designers who are familiar with the deterministic design method prefer a method which is similar to the existing method but is based on the probabilistic concept. Therefore, the partial safety factor method has been adopted as a new design method over the world. In Korea, Tetrapod is widely used for armoring rubble mound breakwaters. Even though the partial safety factor method developed in the United States and Europe covers Tetrapods, the limited wave and structure conditions in its development make the engineers hesitate about its use in practical breakwater design. In this study, partial safety factors for Tetrapod armor blocks have been developed by analyzing 116 breakwater cross-sections and wave conditions in 16 trade harbors and 15 coastal harbors with the FORM and optimal code calibration approach. Especially, partial safety factors have been proposed depending on the shape parameter of the Weibull extreme wave height distribution. For other types of extreme distributions, it is possible to apply the proposed partial safety factors using the relationship between skewness coefficient and shape parameter. Finally, the proposed partial safety factors have been applied to existing structures to show that they better satisfy the target reliability of the structures than previous partial safety factors.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.52-61
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• 2016

The purpose of the study was to create a probabilistic seismic hazard map using the input data that reflected the seismo-tectonic characteristics of the Korean Peninsula by applying USGS program (Harmsen (2008). The program was partly modified for the purpose of this study. The uncertainty of input parameters given by specialists was reflected in calculating the seismic hazard values by logic tree method. The general pattern of PGA was quite sensitive and similar to the shape of areal source. The probabilistic seismic hazard map showed the contour distribution of peak acceleration (%g) with 10% probability of exceedance in 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, 250, and 500 years. The result showed that the peak ground acceleration (PGA) values of the northern peninsula were almost half values of the southern peninsula except Hwanghae province. The general trend of the hazard map extended in the direction of NW-SE from Whanghae province to south-eastern regions of the peninsula. The values in northern part of Kangwon province were relatively lower than other areas in the southern peninsula. The maps produced through this study are considered valuable in regulating the seismic safety of the major facilities in the Korean Peninsula.