• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률분포모델

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Time Dependent Evaluation of Corrosion Free Life of Concrete Tunnel Structures Based on the Reliability Theory (해저 콘크리트 구조물의 신뢰성 이론에 의한 시간 의존적 내구수명 평가)

  • Pack, Seung Woo;Jung, Min Sun
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.142-154
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    • 2011
  • This study predicted the probability of corrosion initiation of reinforced concrete tunnel boxes structures using the Monte Carlo Simulation. For the inner wall and outer wall in the tunnel boxes, exposed to airborne chloride ion and seawater directly respectively, statistical values of parameters like diffusion coefficient D, surface chloride content $C_s$, cover depth c, and the chloride threshold level $C_{lim}$ were examined from experiment or literature review. Their average values accounted for $3.77{\times}10^{-12}m^2/s$, 3.0% by weight of cement, 94.7mm and 45.5mm for outer wall and inner wall, respectively, and 0.69% by weight of cement for D, $C_s$, c, and $C_{lim}$, respectively. With these parametric values, the distribution of chloride contents at rebar with time and the probability of corrosion initiation of the tunnel boxes, inner wall and outer wall, was examined by considering time dependency of chloride transport. From the examination, the histogram of chloride contents at rebar is closer to a gamma distribution, and the mean value increases with time, while the coefficient of variance decreases with time. It was found that the probability of corrosion initiation and the time to corrosion were dependent on the time dependency of chloride transport. Time independent model predicted time to corrosion initiation of inner wall and outer wall as 8 and 12 years, respectively, while 178 and 283 years of time to corrosion was calculated by time dependent model for inner wall and outer wall, respectively. For time independent model, the probability of corrosion at 100 years of exposure for inner wall and outer wall was ranged 59.5 and 95.5%, respectively, while time dependent model indicated 2.9 and 0.2% of the probability corrosion, respectively. Finally, impact of $C_{lim}$, including values specified in current codes, on the probability of corrosion initiation and corrosion free life is discussed.

A Short-Term Traffic Information Prediction Model Using Bayesian Network (베이지안 네트워크를 이용한 단기 교통정보 예측모델)

  • Yu, Young-Jung;Cho, Mi-Gyung
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.765-773
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    • 2009
  • Currently Telematics traffic information services have been various because we can collect real-time traffic information through Intelligent Transport System. In this paper, we proposed and implemented a short-term traffic information prediction model for giving to guarantee the traffic information with high quality in the near future. A Short-term prediction model is for forecasting traffic flows of each segment in the near future. Our prediction model gives an average speed on the each segment from 5 minutes later to 60 minutes later. We designed a Bayesian network for each segment with some casual nodes which makes an impact to the road situation in the future and found out its joint probability density function on the supposition of GMM(Gaussian Mixture Model) using EM(Expectation Maximization) algorithm with training real-time traffic data. To validate the precision of our prediction model we had conducted various experiments with real-time traffic data and computed RMSE(Root Mean Square Error) between a real speed and its prediction speed. As the result, our model gave 4.5, 4.8, 5.2 as an average value of RMSE about 10, 30, 60 minutes later, respectively.

Performance Analysis of Amplify-and-Forward Relaying in Cooperative Networks with Partial Relay Selection (부분 중계노드 선택 기반의 협력 네트워크에서 증폭 후 전송 방식에 대한 성능분석)

  • Hwang, Ho-seon;Ahn, Kyung-seung
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.40 no.12
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    • pp.2317-2323
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, we analyze the performance of dual-hop amplify-and-forward (AF) relaying in cooperative networks with partial relay selection. An AF relay gain considered in this paper includes channel-noise-assisted relay gain. Leveraging a received signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) model, we derive exact closed-form expressions for the probability density function (pdf) and cumulative distribution function (cdf) of the end-to-end SNR. Moreover, an exact closed-form expression of the ergodic capacity for dual-hop AF relaying with channel-noise-assisted relay gain and partial relay selection is investigated. The analytical results shown in this paper are confirmed by Monte-Carlo simulations.

Frequency Dependent (Runlength, Level) Coding of DCT Coefficients (DCT 변환계수의 인덱스의존 (줄길이, 레벨) 부호화)

  • Lee, Jong-Hwa;Kang, Dong-Wook;Kang, Su-Won;Chang, Joon-Ho;Lee, Choong-Woong
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics B
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    • v.31B no.11
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    • pp.78-87
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    • 1994
  • In this paper, we have addressed a new approach to encode the DCT coefficients efficiently by exploiting the structural differences among the probability distribution functions of them. We have proved analytically that if signals are separated according to their source models, the entropy of the separated signals decreases below that of the unseparated signals. And simulation results show that the average codelength decrease when each (runlength, level) symbol is encoded adaptively according to the index associated with the symbol.

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A Stochastic Analysis in Steam Turbine Blade Steel Using Monte Carlo Simulation (몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 이용한 증기 터빈블레이드재의 확률론적 해석)

  • Kim, Chul-Su;Jung, Hwa-Young;Kang, Myung-Su;Kim, Jung-Kyu
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.26 no.11
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    • pp.2421-2428
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    • 2002
  • In this study, the failure probability of the degraded LP turbine blade steel was performed using the Monte Carlo simulation to apply variation of applied stress and strength. For this purpose, applied stress under the service condition of steady state was obtained by theoretical stress analysis and the maximum Von-Mises stress was 219MPa. The fatigue strength under rotating-bending load was evaluated by the staircase method. Furthermore, 3-parameter Weibull distribution was found to be most appropriate among assumed distributions when the probabilistic distributions of tensile and fatigue strength were determined by the proposed analysis. The failure probability with various loading conditions was derived from the strength-stress interference model and the characteristic factor of safety was also estimated.

A Study on the Inference Model of In-use Vehicles Emission Distribution according to the Vehicle Mileage (주행거리별 운행차 배출가스 분포 추정 모델에 관한 연구)

  • 김현우
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.85-92
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    • 2002
  • To investigate the safety of the in-use vehicles emission against the tail-pipe emission regulation, in-use vehicles emission trend according to vehicle mileage should be known. But it is impossible to collect all vehicles emission data In order to know that. Therefore, it is necessary to establish a statistically meaningful inference method that can be used generally to estimate in-use vehicles emissions distribution according to the vehicle mileage with relatively less in-use vehicles emission data. To do this, a linear regression model that solved the problems of data normality and common variance of error was studied. As a way that can secure the data normality, In(emission) instead of emission itself was used as a sampled data. And a reciprocal of mileage was suggested as a factor to secure common variance of error. As an example, 36 data of FTP-75 test were handled in this study. As a result, using average value and standard deviation at each mileage which were inferred from a linear regression model, probability density distribution and cumulative distribution of emissions according to the vehicle mileage were obtained and it was possible to predict the deterioration factor through full useful life mileage and also possible to decide whether those in-use vehicles will meet the tail-pipe emission regulations or not.

Multi-modal Biometrics System Based on Face and Signature by SVM Decision Rule (SVM 결정법칙에 의한 얼굴 및 서명기반 다중생체인식 시스템)

  • Min Jun-Oh;Lee Dae-Jong;Chun Myung-Geun
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.11B no.7 s.96
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    • pp.885-892
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    • 2004
  • In this paper, we propose a multi-modal biometrics system based on face and signature recognition system. Here, the face recognition system is designed by fuzzy LDA, and the signature recognition system is implemented with the LDA and segment matching methods. To effectively aggregate two systems, we obtain statistical distribution models based on matching values for genuine and impostor, respectively. And then, the final verification is Performed by the support vector machine. From the various experiments, we find that the proposed method shows high recognition rates comparing with the conventional methods.

Character-Aware Neural Networks with Multi-Head Attention Mechanism for Multilingual Named Entity Recognition (Multi-Head Attention 방법을 적용한 문자 기반의 다국어 개체명 인식)

  • Cheon, Min-Ah;Kim, Chang-Hyun;Park, Ho-Min;Kim, Jae-Hoon
    • Annual Conference on Human and Language Technology
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    • 2018.10a
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    • pp.167-171
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    • 2018
  • 개체명 인식은 문서에서 인명, 지명, 기관명 등의 고유한 의미를 나타내는 단위인 개체명을 추출하고, 추출된 개체명의 범주를 결정하는 작업이다. 최근 개체명 인식과 관련된 연구는 입력 데이터의 앞, 뒤를 고려하기 위한 Bi-RNNs와 출력 데이터 간의 전이 확률을 이용한 CRFs를 결합한 방식을 기반으로 다양한 변형의 심층학습 방법론이 제안되고 있다. 그러나 대부분의 연구는 입력 단위를 단어나 형태소로 사용하고 있으며, 성능 향상을 위해 띄어쓰기 정보, 개체명 사전 자질, 품사 분포 정보 등 다양한 정보를 필요로 한다는 어려움이 있다. 본 논문은 기본적인 학습 말뭉치에서 얻을 수 있는 문자 기반의 입력 정보와 Multi-Head Attention을 추가한 Bi-GRU/CRFs을 이용한 다국어 개체명 인식 방법을 제안한다. 한국어, 일본어, 중국어, 영어에 제안 모델을 적용한 결과 한국어와 일본어에서는 우수한 성능(한국어 $F_1$ 84.84%, 일본어 $F_1$ 89.56%)을 보였다. 영어에서는 $F_1$ 80.83%의 성능을 보였으며, 중국어는 $F_1$ 21.05%로 가장 낮은 성능을 보였다.

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Uncertainty Analysis of Parameters of Spatial Statistical Model Using Bayesian Method for Estimating Spatial Distribution of Probability Rainfall (확률강우량의 공간분포추정에 있어서 Bayesian 기법을 이용한 공간통계모델의 매개변수 불확실성 해석)

  • Seo, Young-Min;Park, Ki-Bum;Kim, Sung-Won
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.20 no.12
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    • pp.1541-1551
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    • 2011
  • This study applied the Bayesian method for the quantification of the parameter uncertainty of spatial linear mixed model in the estimation of the spatial distribution of probability rainfall. In the application of Bayesian method, the prior sensitivity analysis was implemented by using the priors normally selected in the existing studies which applied the Bayesian method for the puppose of assessing the influence which the selection of the priors of model parameters had on posteriors. As a result, the posteriors of parameters were differently estimated which priors were selected, and then in the case of the prior combination, F-S-E, the sizes of uncertainty intervals were minimum and the modes, means and medians of the posteriors were similar to the estimates using the existing classical methods. From the comparitive analysis between Bayesian and plug-in spatial predictions, we could find that the uncertainty of plug-in prediction could be slightly underestimated than that of Bayesian prediction.

Analysis of Flows in the Combustor with Recirculating Flow Regime (재순환영역을 가지는 연소기내의 연소유동해석)

  • 신동신;허남건
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.22-31
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    • 1997
  • We developed a general purpose program for the analysis of flows in the combustor with recirculating flow regime and simulated the flows. The program uses non-staggered grids based on finite volume method and the primitive variables are cartesian velocities. The combustion model is irreversible one step reaction with infinite chemistry The Favre averaged governing equations are considered and the clipped gaussian distribution is considered as a probability density function of the conserved scalar. We calculated turbulent diffusion flame with recirculating flow regime. Simulation shows two recirculating regions like experimental results. Velocity, turbulent kinetic energy, temperature and concentration distribution in simulation agree well with experimental data.

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