• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률분포모델

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Groundwater Flow Characterization in the Vicinity of the Underground Caverns by Groundwater Level Changes (지하수위 변화에 따른 지하공동 주변의 지하수 유동특성 해석)

  • 강재기;양형식;김경수;김천수
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.465-475
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    • 2003
  • Groundwater inflow into the caverns constructed in fractured rock mass was simulated by numerical modeling, NAPSAC (DFN, discrete fracture network model) and NAMMU (CPM, continuous porous media model), a finite-element software package for groundwater flow in 3D fractured media developed by AEA Technology, UK. The input parameters for modeling were determined on surface fracture survey, core logging and single hole hydraulic test data. In order to predict the groundwater inflow more accurately, the anisotropic hydraulic conductivity was considered. The anisotropic hydraulic conductivities were calculated from the fracture network properties. With a minor adjustment during model calibration, the numerical modeling is able to reproduce reasonably groundwater inflows into cavern and the travel length and times to the ground surface along the flow paths in the normal, dry and rainy seasons.

A Facility Location Model Considering the Urban Spatial Structure by Genetic Algorithm (유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 도시공간형태별 입지선정 모델)

  • Na, Ho-Young;Lee, Sang-Heon
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.35-44
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    • 2008
  • Facility location problem is an important subject in many areas of modern business environment. In this paper, we deal with uncapacitated and multi-period facility location problem where the object is a maximization of total profit within predetermined cost. We assume that all demand have to be met. Particularly, we represent various types of customer based on four well-known urban spatial structures to represent a spread of customers. Those are concentric zone model, sector model, multiple nuclei model and star model respectively. We apply to the genetic algorithm to simulate a large scaled problem and develop simulator. We analyze both optimal numbers and locations of facilities for each urban structure. Furthermore, we examine the appropriate time to further expansion of the facilities in the planning horizon. The experimental results show that the developed algorithm can be applied effectively to the facility location problem in the various types of urban area.

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Determination of the Fracture Hydraulic Parameters for Three Dimensional Discrete Fracture Network Modeling (3차원 단열망모델링을 위한 단열수리인자 도출)

  • 김경수;김천수;배대석;김원영;최영섭;김중렬
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Groundwater Environment
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.80-87
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    • 1998
  • Since groundwater flow paths have one of the major roles to transport the radioactive nuclides from the radioactive waste repository to the biosphere, the discrete fracture network model is used for the rock block scale flow instead of the porous continuum model. This study aims to construct a three dimensional discrete fracture network to interpret the groundwater flow system in the study site. The modeling work includes the determination of the probabilistic distribution function from the fracture geometric and hydraulic parameters, three dimensional fracture modeling and model calibration. The results of the constant pressure tests performed in a fixed interval length at boreholes indicate that the flow dimension around boreholes shows mainly radial to spherical flow pattern. The fracture transmissivity value calculated by Cubic law is 6.12${\times}$10$\^$-7/ ㎡/sec with lognormal distribution. The conductive fracture intensity estimated by FracMan code is 1.73. Based on this intensity, the total number of conductive fractures are obtained as 3,080 in the rock block of 100 m${\times}$100 m${\times}$100 m.

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Development for Wetland Network Model in Nakdong Basin using a Graph Theory (그래프이론을 이용한 낙동강 유역의 습지네트워크 구축모델 개발)

  • Rho, Paikho
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.397-406
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    • 2013
  • Wetland conservation plan has been established to protect ecologically important wetlands based on vegetation integrity, spatial distribution of endangered species, but recently more demands are concentrated on the landscape ecological approaches such as topological relationship, neighboring area, spatial arrangements between wetlands at the broad scale. Landscape ecological analysis and graph theory are conducted to identify spatial characteristics related to core nodes and weak links of wetland networks in Nakdong basin. Regular planar model, which is selected for wetland networks, is applied in the Nakdong basin. The analysis indicates that 5 regional groups and 4 core wetlands are extracted with 15km threshold distance. The IIC and PC values based on the binary and probability models suggest that the wetland group C composed of main stream of Nakdong river and Geumho river is the most important area for wetland network. Wetland conservation plan, restoration projected of damaged and weak links between wetlands should be proposed through evaluating the node, links, and networks from wetlands at the local to the regional scale in Nakdong basin.

Initialization by using truncated distributions in artificial neural network (절단된 분포를 이용한 인공신경망에서의 초기값 설정방법)

  • Kim, MinJong;Cho, Sungchul;Jeong, Hyerin;Lee, YungSeop;Lim, Changwon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.693-702
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    • 2019
  • Deep learning has gained popularity for the classification and prediction task. Neural network layers become deeper as more data becomes available. Saturation is the phenomenon that the gradient of an activation function gets closer to 0 and can happen when the value of weight is too big. Increased importance has been placed on the issue of saturation which limits the ability of weight to learn. To resolve this problem, Glorot and Bengio (Proceedings of the Thirteenth International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, 249-256, 2010) claimed that efficient neural network training is possible when data flows variously between layers. They argued that variance over the output of each layer and variance over input of each layer are equal. They proposed a method of initialization that the variance of the output of each layer and the variance of the input should be the same. In this paper, we propose a new method of establishing initialization by adopting truncated normal distribution and truncated cauchy distribution. We decide where to truncate the distribution while adapting the initialization method by Glorot and Bengio (2010). Variances are made over output and input equal that are then accomplished by setting variances equal to the variance of truncated distribution. It manipulates the distribution so that the initial values of weights would not grow so large and with values that simultaneously get close to zero. To compare the performance of our proposed method with existing methods, we conducted experiments on MNIST and CIFAR-10 data using DNN and CNN. Our proposed method outperformed existing methods in terms of accuracy.

Predicting the Potential Habitat and Future Distribution of Brachydiplax chalybea flavovittata Ris, 1911 (Odonata: Libellulidae) (기후변화에 따른 남색이마잠자리 잠재적 서식지 및 미래 분포예측)

  • Soon Jik Kwon;Yung Chul Jun;Hyeok Yeong Kwon;In Chul Hwang;Chang Su Lee;Tae Geun Kim
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.335-344
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    • 2023
  • Brachydiplax chalybea flavovittata, a climate-sensitive biological indicator species, was first observed and recorded at Jeju Island in Korea in 2010. Overwintering was recently confirmed in the Yeongsan River area. This study was aimed to predict the potential distribution patterns for the larvae of B. chalybea flavovittata and to understand its ecological characteristics as well as changes of population under global climate change circumstances. Data was collected both from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and by field surveys from May 2019 to May 2023. We used for the distribution model among downloaded 19 variables from the WorldClim database. MaxEnt model was adopted for the prediction of potential and future distribution for B. chalybea flavovittata. Larval distribution ranged within a region delimited by northern latitude from Jeju-si, Jeju Special Self-Governing Province (33.318096°) to Yeoju-si, Gyeonggi-do (37.366734°) and eastern longitude from Jindo-gun, Jeollanam-do (126.054925°) to Yangsan-si, Gyeongsangnam-do (129.016472°). M type (permanent rivers, streams and creeks) wetlands were the most common habitat based on the Ramsar's wetland classification system, followed by Tp type (permanent freshwater marshes and pools) (45.8%) and F type (estuarine waters) (4.2%). MaxEnt model presented that potential distribution with high inhabiting probability included Ulsan and Daegu Metropolitan City in addition to the currently discovered habitats. Applying to the future scenarios by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), it was predicted that the possible distribution area would expand in the 2050s and 2090s, covering the southern and western coastal regions, the southern Daegu metropolitan area and the eastern coastal regions in the near future. This study suggests that B. chalybea flavovittata can be used as an effective indicator species for climate changes with a monitoring of their distribution ranges. Our findings will also help to provide basic information on the conservation and management of co-existing native species.

Statistical Calibration and Validation of Mathematical Model to Predict Motion of Paper Helicopter (종이 헬리콥터 낙하해석모델의 통계적 교정 및 검증)

  • Kim, Gil Young;Yoo, Sung Bum;Kim, Dong Young;Kim, Dong Seong;Choi, Joo Ho
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.39 no.8
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    • pp.751-758
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    • 2015
  • Mathematical models are actively used to reduce the experimental expenses required to understand physical phenomena. However, they are different from real phenomena because of assumptions or uncertain parameters. In this study, we present a calibration and validation method using a paper helicopter and statistical methods to quantify the uncertainty. The data from the experiment using three nominally identical paper helicopters consist of different groups, and are used to calibrate the drag coefficient, which is an unknown input parameter in both analytical models. We predict the predicted fall time data using probability distributions. We validate the analysis models by comparing the predicted distribution and the experimental data distribution. Moreover, we quantify the uncertainty using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. In addition, we compare the manufacturing error and experimental error obtained from the fall-time data using Analysis of Variance. As a result, all of the paper helicopters are treated as one identical model.

Bayesian inference of longitudinal Markov binary regression models with t-link function (t-링크를 갖는 마코프 이항 회귀 모형을 이용한 인도네시아 어린이 종단 자료에 대한 베이지안 분석)

  • Sim, Bohyun;Chung, Younshik
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.47-59
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    • 2020
  • In this paper, we present the longitudinal Markov binary regression model with t-link function when its transition order is known or unknown. It is assumed that logit or probit models are considered in binary regression models. Here, t-link function can be used for more flexibility instead of the probit model since the t distribution approaches to normal distribution as the degree of freedom goes to infinity. A Markov regression model is considered because of the longitudinal data of each individual data set. We propose Bayesian method to determine the transition order of Markov regression model. In particular, we use the deviance information criterion (DIC) (Spiegelhalter et al., 2002) of possible models in order to determine the transition order of the Markov binary regression model if the transition order is known; however, we compute and compare their posterior probabilities if unknown. In order to overcome the complicated Bayesian computation, our proposed model is reconstructed by the ideas of Albert and Chib (1993), Kuo and Mallick (1998), and Erkanli et al. (2001). Our proposed method is applied to the simulated data and real data examined by Sommer et al. (1984). Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to determine the optimal model are used assuming that the transition order of the Markov regression model are known or unknown. Gelman and Rubin's method (1992) is also employed to check the convergence of the Metropolis Hastings algorithm.

Robust Reference Point and Feature Extraction Method for Fingerprint Verification using Gradient Probabilistic Model (지문 인식을 위한 Gradient의 확률 모델을 이용하는 강인한 기준점 검출 및 특징 추출 방법)

  • 박준범;고한석
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea CI
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    • v.40 no.6
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    • pp.95-105
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    • 2003
  • A novel reference point detection method is proposed by exploiting tile gradient probabilistic model that captures the curvature information of fingerprint. The detection of reference point is accomplished through searching and locating the points of occurrence of the most evenly distributed gradient in a probabilistic sense. The uniformly distributed gradient texture represents either the core point itself or those of similar points that can be used to establish the rigid reference from which to map the features for recognition. Key benefits are reductions in preprocessing and consistency of locating the same points as the reference points even when processing arch type fingerprints. Moreover, the new feature extraction method is proposed by improving the existing feature extraction using filterbank method. Experimental results indicate the superiority of tile proposed scheme in terms of computational time in feature extraction and verification rate in various noisy environments. In particular, the proposed gradient probabilistic model achieved 49% improvement under ambient noise, 39.2% under brightness noise and 15.7% under a salt and pepper noise environment, respectively, in FAR for the arch type fingerprints. Moreover, a reduction of 0.07sec in reference point detection time of the GPM is shown possible compared to using the leading the poincare index method and a reduction of 0.06sec in code extraction time of the new filterbank mettled is shown possible compared to using the leading the existing filterbank method.

A study on the connected-digit recognition using MLP-VQ and Weighted DHMM (MLP-VQ와 가중 DHMM을 이용한 연결 숫자음 인식에 관한 연구)

  • Chung, Kwang-Woo;Hong, Kwang-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics S
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    • v.35S no.8
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    • pp.96-105
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    • 1998
  • The aim of this paper is to propose the method of WDHMM(Weighted DHMM), using the MLP-VQ for the improvement of speaker-independent connect-digit recognition system. MLP neural-network output distribution shows a probability distribution that presents the degree of similarity between each pattern by the non-linear mapping among the input patterns and learning patterns. MLP-VQ is proposed in this paper. It generates codewords by using the output node index which can reach the highest level within MLP neural-network output distribution. Different from the old VQ, the true characteristics of this new MLP-VQ lie in that the degree of similarity between present input patterns and each learned class pattern could be reflected for the recognition model. WDHMM is also proposed. It can use the MLP neural-network output distribution as the way of weighing the symbol generation probability of DHMMs. This newly-suggested method could shorten the time of HMM parameter estimation and recognition. The reason is that it is not necessary to regard symbol generation probability as multi-dimensional normal distribution, as opposed to the old SCHMM. This could also improve the recognition ability by 14.7% higher than DHMM, owing to the increase of small caculation amount. Because it can reflect phone class relations to the recognition model. The result of my research shows that speaker-independent connected-digit recognition, using MLP-VQ and WDHMM, is 84.22%.

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