• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률분포모델

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Estimation of Storage Life for Propellant Bag by Using Gamma Process Model (감마과정 모델에 의한 장약포의 저장수명 예측)

  • Park, Sungho;Kim, Jaehoon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.17-25
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this paper is to present a method to estimate the storage life of propellant bag for degradation of breaking load with storage time by using gamma process model. The nitrogen compound generated by natural decomposition of propellants degrades the breaking load of propellant bag with time. The statistical distributions of condition and lifetime with time were shown from the results of accelerated life test of propellant bag cloth at $80^{\circ}C$. It was found that the use of median for life was highly appropriate and the $B_1$ or $B_5$ life should be selectively applied to the quality assurance policy.

A Bayesian Sampling Algorithm for Evolving Random Hypergraph Models Representing Higher-Order Correlations (고차상관관계를 표현하는 랜덤 하이퍼그래프 모델 진화를 위한 베이지안 샘플링 알고리즘)

  • Lee, Si-Eun;Lee, In-Hee;Zhang, Byoung-Tak
    • Journal of KIISE:Software and Applications
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.208-216
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    • 2009
  • A number of estimation of distribution algorithms have been proposed that do not use explicitly crossover and mutation of traditional genetic algorithms, but estimate the distribution of population for more efficient search. But because it is not easy to discover higher-order correlations of variables, lower-order correlations are estimated most cases under various constraints. In this paper, we propose a new estimation of distribution algorithm that represents higher-order correlations of the data and finds global optimum more efficiently. The proposed algorithm represents the higher-order correlations among variables by building random hypergraph model composed of hyperedges consisting of variables which are expected to be correlated, and generates the next population by Bayesian sampling algorithm Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm can find global optimum and outperforms the simple genetic algorithm and BOA(Bayesian Optimization Algorithm) on decomposable functions with deceptive building blocks.

Performance analysis of packet transmission for a Signal Flow Graph based time-varying channel over a Wireless Network (무선 네트워크 시변(time-varying) 채널에서 SFG (Signal Flow Graph)를 이용한 패킷 전송 성능 분석)

  • Kim Sang Yong;Park Hong Seong;Oh Hoon;LI Vitaly
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea TC
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    • v.42 no.2 s.332
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    • pp.23-38
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    • 2005
  • The state of channel between two or more wireless terminals is changed frequently due to noise or multiple environmental conditions in wireless network. In this paper, we analyze packet transmission time and queue length in a time-varying channel of packet based Wireless Networks. To reflect the feature of the time-varying channel, we model the channel as two-state Markov model and three-state Markov model Which are transformed to SFG(Signal Flow Graph) model, and then the distribution of the packet transmission can be modeled as Gaussian distribution. If the packet is arrived with Poisson distribution, then the packet transmission system is modeled as M/G/1. The average transmission time and the average queue length are analyzed in the time-varying channel, and are verified with some simulations.

Predicting Dangerous Traffic Intervals between Ships in Vessel Traffic Service Areas Using a Poisson Distribution (푸아송 분포를 이용한 해상교통관제 구역 내 선박 상호간 교통위험 상황의 발생 간격 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Sang-Won;Park, Young-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.402-409
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    • 2016
  • Vessel traffic servies (VTS) control movements in ports and coastal areas 24 hours a day using VHF. Thus, we were able to check ship movements and the patterns followed by VTS officers in VTS areas using VHF communication analysis. This study is intended to identify control intervals for dangerous situations and provide VTS officers with basic data and guidelines to prevent these occurrences in advance. We listened to Busan port's VHF communication for seven days and obtained risk values using the Park model with reference to controlled ships. The probability of a dangerous situation arising under a controller's watch per unit of time was confirmed to follow a Poisson distribution. As a result, for each 3.50 hours that VTS directly controls an area, (and in daytime for each 2.85 hours) a ship communicates in a VTS area every 3.84 hours, and some of there communications exceed certain risk values in VTS areas.

An explicit solution of residence time distribution for analyzing one-dimensional solute transport in streams (하천에서 1차원 오염물질 거동 해석을 위한 정체시간분포의 양해적 해석해)

  • Byunguk Kim;Siyoon Kwon;Il Won Seo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.518-518
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    • 2023
  • 자연하천에서 오염물질의 혼합 거동은 비균일한 지형학적 요인으로 인해 매우 복잡한 특성을 나타낸다. 일반적으로 오염물질 거동 모델링에서는 수체에서의 혼합을 Fick의 법칙에 따라 유속에 의한 이송과 난류에 의한 확산으로 계산하고, 국부적인 정체현상 등에 의한 non-Fickian 혼합을 야기하는 하천의 특성을 기하학적 지형 형상으로 구현하여 실제 현상에 근접한 혼합 거동을 재현한다. 하지만 계산의 효율성을 위하여 모델링의 차원을 낮추는 경우, 하천의 지형을 경계조건으로 고려할 수 없게 된다. 특히, 1차원 모델링의 경우 하천의 비균일성을 무시하고 1개의 유선으로 간주하며, 이 경우 non-Fickian 물질이동 해석을 위한 추가적인 현상학적 해석이 필요하다. 지난 50년간, non-Fickian 물질이동 해석을 위한 다양한 현상학적 모형이 제시되어 왔다. 하천을 흐름영역과 정체영역으로 구분하고 두 개의 영역 사이의 물질교환 속도를 모델링하거나, Random walk 개념으로 물질이 이동하는 경우와 이동하지 않는 경우를 확률론적으로 모델링하거나, 물질이 정체되었을 때 다시 빠져나오는 시간을 모델링하는 경우가 그 예이다. 본 연구에서는 선행연구에서 제시한 음함수 형태의 현상학적 모형을 기반으로, 수치적 반복계산 없이 상류 경계에서 임의의 형태의 농도곡선(shape-free breakthrough curve)을 갖는 오염물질운(cloud)이 일정 거리를 유하하며 발생하는 변화를 예측할 수 있는 해를 제시한다. 본 연구의 방법론은 추적법(routing procedure)을 활용한 Fickian 혼합 해석, 전달함수(transfer function) 형태의 정체시간분포 해석, 그리고 라플라스 도메인에서의 해석해 유도를 포함한다. 본 연구에서 제시된 해는 2020년 경상북도 김천시에 위치한 감천의 4.5 km 구간에서 수행한 추적자 실험의 현장 자료를 통해 정확도를 검증하여 타당성을 입증하였다.

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Integrated 3D Skin Color Model for Robust Skin Color Detection of Various Races (강건한 다인종 얼굴 검출을 위한 통합 3D 피부색 모델)

  • Park, Gyeong-Mi;Kim, Young-Bong
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.9 no.5
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2009
  • The correct detection of skin color is an important preliminary process in fields of face detection and human motion analysis. It is generally performed by three steps: transforming the pixel color to a non-RGB color space, dropping the illuminance component of skin color, and classifying the pixels by the skin color distribution model. Skin detection depends on by various factors such as color space, presence of the illumination, skin modeling method. In this paper we propose a 3d skin color model that can segment pixels with several ethnic skin color from images with various illumination condition and complicated backgrounds. This proposed skin color model are formed with each components(Y, Cb, Cr) which transform pixel color to YCbCr color space. In order to segment the skin color of several ethnic groups together, we first create the skin color model of each ethnic group, and then merge the skin color model using its skin color probability. Further, proposed model makes several steps of skin color areas that can help to classify proper skin color areas using small training data.

A study on the spray characteristics of a coaxial nozzle by LDV measurement (LDV계측에 의한 동축노즐의 분무특성 연구)

  • 윤석주;노병준
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.1613-1620
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    • 1990
  • For the purpose of the study on the spray characteristics of a coaxial nozzle, the measurement of the velocity and size of droplets, concentration, and the statistical correlation coefficient between the fluctuation of the velocity and that of the corresponding drop diameter have been carried out. Various method of simultaneous measurement of velocity and drop size have been developed from LDV techniques. The technique used here belongs to the method that supposed by Yule, Holve and Self. It has the advantages of making use of a standard LDV apparatus to which minor modifications have been brought, photomultiplier is equipped with a slit instead of a pinhole and observed the measuring volume at an angle of 90.deg.. The voltage supplied by the photomultiplier has undergone an appropriate analog and digital processing. The experimental results give a good idea of the two phase flow organization and can be helpful to find a drop diffusion model when suitable data are imput.

A New Statistical Voice Activity Detector Based on UMP Test (UMP 테스트에 근거한 새로운 통계적 음성검출기)

  • Jang, Keun-Won;Chang, Joon-Hyuk;Kim, Dong-Kook
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.16-24
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    • 2007
  • Voice activity detectors (VADs) are important in wireless communication and speech signal processing. In the conventional VAD methods. an expression for the likelihood ratio test (LRT) based on statistical models is derived. Then, speech or noise is decided by comparing the value of the expression with a threshold. We propose a new method with the modified decision rule based on the Gaussian distribution and the uniformly most power (UMP) test. This method requires the distribution of the absolute value of the incoming speech signal. Then we can obtain the final decision through the relation between the Rayleigh distributions. This VAD method can detect speech without a priori signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) which is required in the conventional VAD algorithms. Additionally, in the various VAD performance tests, the proposed VAD method is shown to be more effective than the traditional scheme.

Crime Incident Prediction Model based on Bayesian Probability (베이지안 확률 기반 범죄위험지역 예측 모델 개발)

  • HEO, Sun-Young;KIM, Ju-Young;MOON, Tae-Heon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.89-101
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    • 2017
  • Crime occurs differently based on not only place locations and building uses but also the characteristics of the people who use the place and the spatial structures of the buildings and locations. Therefore, if spatial big data, which contain spatial and regional properties, can be utilized, proper crime prevention measures can be enacted. Recently, with the advent of big data and the revolutionary intelligent information era, predictive policing has emerged as a new paradigm for police activities. Based on 7420 actual crime incidents occurring over three years in a typical provincial city, "J city," this study identified the areas in which crimes occurred and predicted risky areas. Spatial regression analysis was performed using spatial big data about only physical and environmental variables. Based on the results, using the street width, average number of building floors, building coverage ratio, the type of use of the first floor (Type II neighborhood living facility, commercial facility, pleasure use, or residential use), this study established a Crime Incident Prediction Model (CIPM) based on Bayesian probability theory. As a result, it was found that the model was suitable for crime prediction because the overlap analysis with the actual crime areas and the receiver operating characteristic curve (Roc curve), which evaluated the accuracy of the model, showed an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.8. It was also found that a block where the commercial and entertainment facilities were concentrated, a block where the number of building floors is high, and a block where the commercial, entertainment, residential facilities are mixed are high-risk areas. This study provides a meaningful step forward to the development of a crime prediction model, unlike previous studies that explored the spatial distribution of crime and the factors influencing crime occurrence.

Assessing the Climatic Suitability for the Drywood Termite, Cryptotermes domesticus Haviland (Blattodea: Kalotermitidae), in South Korea (마른나무흰개미(가칭)의 국내 기후적합성 평가)

  • Min-Jung Kim;Jun-Gi Lee;Youngwoo Nam ;Yonghwan Park
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.62 no.3
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    • pp.215-220
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    • 2023
  • A recent discovery of drywood termites (Cryptotermes domesticus) in a residential facility in Seoul has raised significant concern. This exotic insect species, which can damage timber and wooden buildings, necessitates an immediate investigation of potential infestation. In this study, we assessed the climatic suitability for this termite species using a species distribution modeling approach. Global distribution data and bioclimatic variables were compiled from published sources, and predictive models for climatic suitability were developed using four modeling algorithms. An ensemble prediction was made based on the mean occurrence probability derived from the individual models. The final model suggested that this species could potentially establish itself in tropical coastal regions. While the climatic suitability in South Korea was generally found to be low, a careful investigation is still warranted due to the potential risk of colonization and establishment of this species.