Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.7837/kosomes.2016.22.5.402

Predicting Dangerous Traffic Intervals between Ships in Vessel Traffic Service Areas Using a Poisson Distribution  

Park, Sang-Won (Graduate School of Korea Maritime and Ocean University)
Park, Young-Soo (Maritime Transportation and Science, Korea Maritime and Ocean University)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety / v.22, no.5, 2016 , pp. 402-409 More about this Journal
Abstract
Vessel traffic servies (VTS) control movements in ports and coastal areas 24 hours a day using VHF. Thus, we were able to check ship movements and the patterns followed by VTS officers in VTS areas using VHF communication analysis. This study is intended to identify control intervals for dangerous situations and provide VTS officers with basic data and guidelines to prevent these occurrences in advance. We listened to Busan port's VHF communication for seven days and obtained risk values using the Park model with reference to controlled ships. The probability of a dangerous situation arising under a controller's watch per unit of time was confirmed to follow a Poisson distribution. As a result, for each 3.50 hours that VTS directly controls an area, (and in daytime for each 2.85 hours) a ship communicates in a VTS area every 3.84 hours, and some of there communications exceed certain risk values in VTS areas.
Keywords
Vessel Traffic Service; VHF Communication analysis; Poisson distribution; Park model; Risk value;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 Inoue, K. and K. Hara(1973), Detection Days and Level of Marine Traffic Volume, Japan Institute Navigation, Vol. 50, pp. 1-8.   DOI
2 Kim, B. H.(2015a), A Study on the Analysis of VTS Communications for the Identification of Marine Risk Factors, Korea maritime and ocean university graduate school, Master thesis, pp. 96-67.
3 Kim, J. S.(2014), A Study on the Development of Marine Traffic Assessment Model based on Vessel Operator's Risk Consciousness, Mokpo Maritime University, PhD. Dissertation, pp. 7-8.
4 Kim, S. J.(2015b), A Basic Study on Operation Effectiveness of Vessel Traffic Service(VTS), Korea maritime and ocean university graduate school, Master thesis, p. 20.
5 MOF(2015), Ministry of oceans and fisheries, The number of vessels that depart and arrive, http://www.spidc.go.kr [Accessed : June. 2016].
6 Park, J. S., Y. S. Park and H. K. Lee(2013), Marine Traffic Engineering, Dasom, pp. 48-49.
7 Park, S. W.(2015), A Basic Study on guideline to proper control time on each ship's encounter situation, Korea Maritime and Ocean University, Master thesis, p. 34.
8 Park, S. W. and Y. S. Park(2016), A Basic Study on Development of VTS Control Guideline based on ship's operator's Consciousness, Journal of Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research, Vol. 40 No. 3 pp. 105-111.   DOI
9 Tabata, Y.(1994), Basic Statistics, Samyoungsa, p. 136.