• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
• /
• v.18 no.4
• /
• pp.119-126
• /
• 2002

A reliability analysis is performed to investigate the influence of the uncertainty from few in-situ samples and inherent heterogeneity of the ground on the probability of failure for a rock cut slope. The results are compared with those of deterministic slope stability analysis. The random variables used are unit weight of the rock, the angle of potential slope of failure, and cohesion and internal friction angle of joints. It was found that the rock slope in which the factor of safety satisfied the minimum safety factor in the deterministic analysis has high probability of failure in the reliability analysis when the weak geological strata are involved in the cut slope. The probability of failure of rock slope is most sensitive to the mean and standard deviation of cohesion in rock joint among the random soil parameters included in the reliability analysis. Sensitivities of the mean values are larger than those of standard deviations, which means that accurate estimation of the mean for the in-situ geotechnical properties is important.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
• /
• v.21 no.3
• /
• pp.247-257
• /
• 2011

In this study the infinite slope model, one of the physical landslide models has been suggested to evaluate the susceptibility of the landslide. However, applying the infinite slope model in regional study area can be difficult or impossible because of the difficulties in obtaining and processing of large spatial data sets. With limited site investigation data, uncertainties were inevitably involved with. Therefore, the probabilistic analysis method such as Monte Carlo simulation and the GIS based infinite slope stability model have been used to evaluate the probability of failure. The proposed approach has been applied to practical example. The study area in Boeun area been selected since the area has been experienced tremendous amount of landslide occurrence. The geometric characteristics of the slope and the mechanical properties of soils like to friction angle and cohesion were obtained. In addition, coefficient of variation (COV) values in the uncertain parameters were varied from 10% to 30% in order to evaluate the effect of the uncertainty. The analysis results showed that the probabilistic analysis method can reduce the effect of uncertainty involved in input parameters.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Tribologists and Lubrication Engineers Conference
• /
• 1998.04a
• /
• pp.263-270
• /
• 1998

상용화된 박막 코팅 자기 저장 디스크의 기계역학 및 윤활적 물성치를 도출하기 위하여 Nano-Indentation 과 Nano-Scratch 실험이 수행되었다. 자기 디스크는 원주방향으로 일정한의 분석을 위하여 AFM(Atomic Force Microscopy)이 사용되었다. 텍스처 방향에 따른 표면조도의 변화는 가우스 확률 분포(Gaussian probability distribution)와 Weibull누적 확률 이론(Weibull cumulative probability theory)에 의하여 분석되었다. 표면 조도와 마찰계수는 텍스처의 스캐닝(scanning) 방향에 의존한다는 것이 확인 되었다.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.36 no.2
• /
• pp.1-64
• /
• 2014

This paper attempts to search the driving forces of the Korean economy after 2000 by analyzing an estimated DSGE model and observing the degree of implementation regarding non-systematic parts of both the monetary and fiscal policy during the global financial crisis. Two types of trends, various cyclical factors and frictions are introduced in the model for an empirical analysis in which historical decompositions of key macro variables are quantitatively assessed after 2000. While the monetary policy during the global financial crisis have reacted systematically in accordance with the estimated Taylor rule relatively, the fiscal policy which was aggressively expansionary is not fully explained by the estimated fiscal rule but more by the large magnitude of non-systematic reaction.

• Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
• /
• v.20 no.12
• /
• pp.41-47
• /
• 2019

This paper deals with the reliability analysis of foundation for an offshore wind turbine system. Reliability analyses were carried out for suction bucket foundation considering the uncertainties in soil and structural parameters. In reliability analysis, the vertical and lateral resistances are defined as base limit states. The case studies were carried out using the preliminarily designed foundations at western-south mainland sea of Korea. From reliability analyses, vertical resistance for free-slip condition has overall lower reliability index, and submerged unit weight and internal friction angle of seabed soil are governing factors in vertical and lateral resistance in this case.

• Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
• /
• v.17 no.4
• /
• pp.53-64
• /
• 2018

In this study, the evaluation to probability of failure for risk assessment of port structures on DCM reinforced soils, where stability and risk assessment are increasing in importance, was performed. As a random variables affecting the risk of DCM improved ground, the design strength, superposition (overlap) of construction, strength of the natural ground, internal friction angle and unit weight of the modified ground were selected and applied to the risk assessment. In addition, the failure probability for the entire system under ordinary conditions and under earthquake conditions were analyzed. As a result, it was found that the highest coefficient of variation in the random variable for the risk assessment of the DCM improved ground is the design strength, but this does not have a great influence on the safety factor, ie, the risk of the system. The main risk factor for the failure probability of the system for the DCM reinforced soils was evaluated as horizontal sliding in case of external stability and compression failure in case of internal stability both at ordinary condition and earthquake condition. In addition, the failure probability for ordinary horizontal sliding is higher than that for earthquake failure, and the failure probability for ordinary compression failure is lower than that for earthquake failure. The ordinary failure probability of the entire system is similar to the failure probability on earthquake condition, but in this case, the risk of earthquake is somewhat higher.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
• /
• v.41 no.6
• /
• pp.763-771
• /
• 2008

Uncertainties are pervasive in engineering geological problems. Therefore, the presence of uncertainties and their significance in analysis and design of slopes have been recognized. Since the uncertainties cannot be taken into account by the conventional deterministic approaches in slope stability analysis, the probabilistic analysis has been considered as the primary tool for representing uncertainties in mathematical models. However, some uncertainties are caused by incomplete information due to lack of information, and those uncertainties cannot be handled appropriately by the probabilistic approach. For those uncertainties, the theory of fuzzy sets is more appropriate. Therefore, in this study, fuzzy reliability analysis has been proposed in order to deal with the uncertainties which cannot be quantified in the probabilistic analysis due to the limited information. For the practical example, a slope is selected in this study and both the probabilistic analysis and the fuzzy reliability analysis have been carried out for planar failure. In the fuzzy reliability analysis, the dip angle and internal friction angle of discontinuity are considered as triangular fuzzy numbers since the random properties of the variables cannot be obtained completely under the conditions of limited information. In the study, the fuzzy reliability index and the probabilities of failure are evaluated from fuzzy arithmetic and compared to those from the probabilistic approach using Monte Carlo simulation and point estimate method. The analysis results show that the fuzzy reliability analysis is more appropriate for the condition that the uncertainties arise due to incomplete information.

• Geotechnical Engineering
• /
• v.10 no.2
• /
• pp.121-140
• /
• 1994

This paper presents the probabilistic model to evaluate the three-dimensional stability of layered deposits and c-0 soil slopes. Rotational slides are assumed with a cylindroid control part terminated with plane ends. And the potential failure surfaces in this study are assumed with the logarithmic spiral curve refracted at boundary of layers. This model takes into consideration the spatial variabilities of soil properties and the uncertainties stemming from insufficient number of samples and the discrepancies between laboratory measured and in -situ values of shear strength parameters. From the probabilistic approxi mate method (FOSM and SOSM method), the mean and variance of safety factor are calculated, respectively. And the programs based on above models is developed and a case study is analysed in detail to study the sensitivity of results to variations in different parameters by using the programs developed in this study. On the basis of thin study the following conclusions could be stated : (1) The sensitivity analysis shown that the probability of failure is more sensitive to the uncertainty of the angle of internal friction than that of the cohesion, (2) The total 3-D proability of failure and the critical width of failure are significantly affected by total width of slope. It is found that the total 3-D probability of failure and the critical width of failure increase with increasing the slope width when seismic forces do not exist and the total 3-D probability of failure increases with increasing the slope width and the critical width of failure decreases when seismic intensity is relatively large, (3) A decrease in the safety factor (due to effect such as a rise in the mean ground water level, lower shear strength parameters, lower values for the correction factors, etc.) would result in reduction in the critical width of failure.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
• /
• v.17 no.11
• /
• pp.545-551
• /
• 2016

In this study, we evaluate the braking performance of an urban railway vehicle to verify its basic safety condition. The braking performance evaluation methods, deceleration measurement and braked weight percentage, were compared for trains with different numbers of cars, in order to assess the advantages of each method and their compatibility. With a probabilistic braking model, the effect of the adhesion coefficient distribution was analyzed in accordance with the train composition. A train with many cars has a narrower deceleration distribution width than one with few cars. The braked weight percentage method is expected to be useful in the design of train signal systems, because it allows the braking distance to be calculated for various initial brake velocities. The deceleration distribution model and its results are expected to be useful as a basis for precise train signal design.

• Journal of Labour Economics
• /
• v.43 no.3
• /
• pp.63-100
• /
• 2020

This paper incorporates the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides search and matching framework into the DSGE model. We estimate the model using a Bayesian estimation methodology on Korean data (1991:1-2020:1). Using the estimated model, we investigate the quantitative effects of wage subsidies. Wage subsidies increase matched firms' profits by reducing labor costs which leads to increases in new matches, employment and output. We find that for one percent of GDP in wage subsidies, the cumulative increase in the output level will be greater than 1 percent.