• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률론적 해석 방법

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A Comparative and Parametric Study of Slope Stability Using a Probability-based Method in Railway Slope (철도 사면에서 확률론적 기법을 이용한 사면안정성 매개변수 비교연구)

  • Choi, Chan-Yong;Kim, Ju-Yong;Eum, Ki-Young
    • Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.17-25
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    • 2012
  • In this study, it was carried out reliability analysis and slope stability analysis in a standard cross-sectional embankment on high speed railway. It was confirmed that changing tendency of safety factor with various parameter of each soil materials properties and trends of the probability of failure according to the reliability index. The results have shown that a safety factor were relatively large affected an cohesions and internal friction angle of soil compared to the unit weight of soil. Also, most of the standard cross-sectional embankment in high speed railway was generally evaluated the level of below average (below average) by the reliability analysis according to criterion in US. Army but the 12m height of dry embankment case was shown bad condition as Poor.

Reliability Analysis of Chloride Ion Penetration based on Level II Method for Marine Concrete Structure (해양 콘크리트 구조물에 대한 Level II 수준에서의 염소이온침투 신뢰성 해석)

  • Han, Sang-Hun
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.129-139
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    • 2008
  • Due to uncertainty of numerous variables in durability model, a probalistic approach is increasing. Monte Carlo simulation (Level III method) is an easily accessible method, but requires a lot of repeated operations. This paper evaluated the effectiveness of First Order Second Moment method (Level II method), which is more convenient and time saving method than MCS, to predict the corrosion initiation in harbor concrete structure. Mean Value First Order Second Moment method (MV FOSM) and Advanced First Order Second Moment method (AFOSM) are applied to the error function solution of Fick's second law modeling chloride diffusion. Reliability index and failure probability based on MV FOSM and AFOSM are compared with the results by MCS. The comparison showed that AFOSM and MCS predict the similar reliability index and MV FOSM underestimates the probability of corrosion initiation by chloride attack. Also, the sensitivity of variables in durability model to corrosion initiation probability was evaluated on the basis of AFOSM. The results showed that AFOSM is a simple and efficient method to estimate the probability of corrosion initiation in harbor structures.

The Sensitivity Analysis and Safety Evaluations of Cable Stayed Bridges Based on Probabilistic Finite Element Method (확률유한요소해석에 의한 사장교의 민감도 분석 및 안전성 평가)

  • Han, Sung-Ho;Cho, Tae-Jun;Bang, Myung-Seok
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.141-152
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    • 2007
  • Considering uncertainties of random input data, it is more reasonable to use probabilistic method than the conventional deterministic method for the design of structures or for the assessment of the responses of structures, which are designed as safe even under extreme loads. Therefore, to assess the quantitative effects of the constructed cable stayed bridge by the input random variables, a sensitivity analysis is studied. Using perturbation method, an analysis program is developed for the iterative probabilistic finite element analyses and sensitivity analyses of the cable stayed bridge, except the initial shape analysis. Monte-Carlo Simulations were used for the verification of the developed program. The results of sensitivity analysis shows the governing effects of external loads. Because the results also provide the sensitive effects of the stiffness of members and the magnitudes of prestressing force of cables, the developed

Stochastic Fatigue Crack Propagation, SFCP (확률론적 피로균열진전)

  • 윤장호
    • Bulletin of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.30 no.3
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    • pp.23-27
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    • 1993
  • 현재까지 SFCP 해석법은 기초단계에 있으며, 아직도 정립된 방법이 없는 것이 사실이다. 따라서, 이 분야에는 많은 개선을 필요로 하고 있다. 이와 같은 개선은 이론적인 연구뿐만이 아니라, 실험적인 연구가 바탕이 되어야 라며, 동시에SFCP에 영향을 주는 초기균열의 변동성, 하중의 변동성 등을 정확한 모델링 방법에 대한 연구가 병행되어야 한다. 그리고 더 나아가서 실제 구 조물에서 피로파괴에 영향을 주는 중요한 요소인 잔류응력, 부식 등의 고려하는 방법에 관한 연구가 수행 되어져야 할 것이다. 또한, 지금까지의 연구가 주로 구조부재에 하나의 균열이 존 재한다는 가정을 내포하고 있는데, 실구조물에 적용하기 위해서는 여러개의 균열이 동시에 존 재하는 경우에 대한 연구와 균열이 성장하면서 합체(coalescence)하는 경우에 대한 연구도 수행 되어야 한다. 이와 같은 연구가 꾸준히 진행되어 소기의 성과를 거둠으로써, 구조물의 피로파괴 확률을 정확하게 추정할 수 있을 것이며, 이에 따라 합리적인 설계가 가능해질 것이다.

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Fatigue Behavior and Probabilistic Fatigue Analysis of Concrete Offshore Structures (콘크리트 해양구조물(海洋構造物)의 피로거동(疲勞擧動)과 확률론적(確率論的) 피로해석(疲勞解析))

  • Oh, Byung Hwan;Kim, Jee Sang
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.31-41
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    • 1988
  • Recently, the offshore structures are increasingly constructed to explore the natural resources. These offshore structures are to be designed to resist the repetitive wave forces. A probabilistic method for the fatigue analysis of offshore concrete structures is presented in this study. The present spectral fatigue analysis calculates wave forces first and then the transfer functions for unit waves from which stress spectra are determined. The calculated fatigue stresses may then be used to evaluate the fatigue damage of concrete structures. A simplified model for the estimation of fatigue damage of the structures, which employs only the probabilistic moments of the peak stress distribution without direct integration, is also proposed. The present study allows more realistic fatigue analysis of offshore concrete structures.

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Expansion of Sensitivity Analysis for Statistical Moments and Probability Constraints to Non-Normal Variables (비정규 분포에 대한 통계적 모멘트와 확률 제한조건의 민감도 해석)

  • Huh, Jae-Sung;Kwak, Byung-Man
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.34 no.11
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    • pp.1691-1696
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    • 2010
  • The efforts of reflecting the system's uncertainties in design step have been made and robust optimization or reliabilitybased design optimization are examples of the most famous methodologies. The statistical moments of a performance function and the constraints corresponding to probability conditions are involved in the formulation of these methodologies. Therefore, it is essential to effectively and accurately calculate them. The sensitivities of these methodologies have to be determined when nonlinear programming is utilized during the optimization process. The sensitivity of statistical moments and probability constraints is expressed in the integral form and limited to the normal random variable; we aim to expand the sensitivity formulation to nonnormal variables. Additional functional calculation will not be required when statistical moments and failure or satisfaction probabilities are already obtained at a design point. On the other hand, the accuracy of the sensitivity results could be worse than that of the moments because the target function is expressed as a product of the performance function and the explicit functions derived from probability density functions.

DETERMINATION OF UNRELIABILITY BOUNDS IN DESIGN BY STRESS AND STRENGTH INTERFERENCE

  • Oh, Chung Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.12 no.20
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    • pp.25-32
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    • 1989
  • 열화수신포에 있어서 확률론적 신뢰도설계 및 단순스트레스와 강도의 고장모형은 렌덤 수치들로 구성된 각 분포의 간섭(Interference) 확률에 의해 이루어진다. 현재까지 이러한 분포모형들의 신경도는 분석적, 수치적 또는 모의실험방법론학에 의해서 단일추정치를 계산및 해석하여 왔으나 현실적으로는 스트레스 강도함수 분포의 간섭구간에 있어서 그 렌덤 변수들에 대한 완전한 실제의 분포들을 파악하기란 너무 복잡하고 때로는 불가능하다. 이를 위해서는 신뢰도의 상·하한 결정으로 신뢰도설계를 하는 방법이 고려된다. 본 연구에서는 스트레스와 강도의 렌덤 변수들에 대한 중복부분(Overlapping tails) 내에 있어서 각각의 주어진 구간확률을 제약조건으로 하여 최적신뢰도 한계를 결정 및 설계하는 새로운 기법을 제시한다. 설계신뢰도의 최적상한 및 하한 값은 제공하기 위하여 비선형모형인 Quadratic programming optimization 기법을 이용하여 신뢰도분석관점에 입각한 특수구조모형을 설정하고 이에 대한 수치예를 들어 예증하였다.

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Probabilistic Analysis of Failure of Soil Slopes during Earthquakes (지진시 사면파괴의 확률론적 해석)

  • 김영수;정성관
    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.27-34
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    • 1989
  • This study presents a probabilistic analysis of the stability of homogeneous soil slopes during earthquakes. The stability of the slope is measured through its probability of failure rather than the customary factor of safety. The maximum horizontal ground acceleration is deterimined with Donovan and McGuire equation. The earthquake magnitude (m) is a random variable the Probability density function f(m) has been obtained with a use of Richter law. The potential failure surfaces are taken to be of an exponential shape (log-spiral) , Uncertainties of the shear strength parameters along potential failure surface are expressed by one-dimensional random field model. From a first order analysis the mean and variance of safety margin is osculated. The dependence on significant seismic parameters of the probability of failure of the slope is examined and the results are presented in a number of graphs and tables. On the base of the results obtained in this study, it is concluled that (1) the present model is useful in assessing the reliability of soil slopes under both static and seismic conditions: and (2) the probability of failure of a soil slope is greatly affected by the values of the seismic parameters that are associated with it.

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Optimal Design of Micro-Positioning Actuator by using Three-dimensional Finite Element Analysis and Evolution Strategy (3차원 유한요소법과 진화전략 알고리즘을 적용한 마이크로 포지셔닝 액추에이터의 형상 최적설계)

  • Oh, Kwang-Il;Rho, Jong-Seok;Jung, Hyun-Kyo
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2006.10d
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    • pp.65-67
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    • 2006
  • 압전현상을 응용하여 설계, 제작되는 기존의 초음파 모터는 기계적인 구조가 단순하여 설계가 비교적 용이한 장점을 갖추고 있는 반면, 그 해석에 있어서는 전통적일 수치해석적인 방법을 사용하고 trial-and-error에만 의존하는 설계 방식으로 인하여 과학적으로 최적화된 설계가 이루어지지 않음으로써 초음파 모터의 효과적인 설계가 이루어지지 않는 문제점이 존재 하였다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 3차원 유한요소법과 확률론적 최적화 기법인 진화전략 알고리즘을 이용하여 초음파 모터의 설계에 대한 최적화 기법을 제시하고 제시된 최적화 기법을 이용하여 소형 초음파 모터 중 Micro-Positioning Actuator(MPA)의 설계 및 해석을 수행하여 그 타당성을 검증하였다.

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Critics on Ludwig Boltzmann's Methodology of Science (루드빅 볼츠만의 과학 방법론에 대한 역사-비판적 검토)

  • Moun, Jean-sou;Lee, Woo-buong
    • Journal of Korean Philosophical Society
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    • v.117
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    • pp.57-84
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    • 2011
  • As for the methodology of physical science, on the one side, Ludwig Boltzmann was declined to Scientific Realist and at the same time Epistemological Idealist. But on the other. He was neither fully nor consistently either one of them, because of rejecting the causal realism of the former and the belief in absolute certainty of the latter. Is there nevertheless any evidence that he had a coherent world view of his own? Yes. In short, he seems to identify his own position with what is called a mind-matter identity theory. In 1897, he supported that psychological processes are identical with certain processes in the brain(realism). And in 1903, he said : "Physics is not separated from psychology. They are only different sides." But Boltzmann did not explain concretely the possibility of this identity. So I tried to construct one theory of identity which is suitable for understanding problems n the physical world, though whether it would work for a full-scale world view which includes both physical and mental phenomena remains problematic. If light phenomena, for example, tend to be measured in terms of some contexts as if light were a wave and in others as if light were a particle, then one may be able to reasonably suppose that light has whatever characteristics in itself which it must have in order to seem like a wave under some conditions of measurement and like a particle in others. If this theory is provisionally to mental phenomena as well, it would mean that reality has those characteristics in itself which it must have to appear as it does to the various faculties of the mind and as it is measured in different physical situations. This is probably not what Boltzmann meant by his theory of identity, since it is very ontological and metaphysical. But in my opinion it is by far the most reasonable identity theory.