• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.295-303
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• 2018

In the DBB delivery system, the design stage and the construction stage are separated. Because of this, design changes frequently occur, and problems such as construction cost overrun, schedule delay, and quality deterioration happen as well. Recently, in the construction industry CM at Risk(CM@R) delivery system, which can systematically solve the above-mentioned problems of DBB delivery system, meet various demands of clients, and overcome the limited cost and period. In the CM@R delivery system, the contractor negotiates for a maximum guaranteed price(GMP) with the client at the design stage, and the CM performer carries out the construction within the GMP. However, uncertainties are inherent in the GMP calculation because the calculation is based on unfinished drawings and documents. In this study, a Probabilistic Earlier GMP Calculation Method by combining a probabilistic tool of Monte Carlo simulation with a case based reasoning is proposed so that the uncertainty in GMP calculation is reflected. After the earlier GMP is calculated, a process to calculate the $2^{nd}$ GMP at the time of around 80 % of detailed deign and to negotiate with the client to fix the final GMP is proposed. The Probabilistic Earlier GMP Calculation Method is verified through the case study. In this study, researchers set the range of GMP through the proposed probabilistic GMP calculation and tried to reduce the risk through negotiation between the client and the CM performer. The proposed method and process would contribute to the successful introduction of CM@R in Korea.