• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.98-103
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• 2003

Based on ASME probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and NEI PRA peer review guidance, we evaluate a human reliability analysis (HRA) in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) for Korea standard nuclear power plants, Ulchin Unit 3&4, to improve it performed at under design. The HRA for Ulchin Unit 3&4 is assessed as higher than Grade I based on ASME PRA standard and as higher than Grade 2 based on NEI PRA peer review guidance. The major items to be improved identified through the evaluation process are the documentation, the systematic human reliability analysis, the participitation of operators in the works and review of HRA. We suggest the guidance on the identification and qualitative screening analysis for pre-accident human errors and solve some items to be improved using the suggested guidance.

• Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.19-35
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• 2014

A parametric sensitivity to the annual exposure dose rate to the farming exposure group has been probabilistically carried out for three principal elements associated with the nuclide transport behavior in the near-field of the pyroprocessed waste repository system. Credit time for both metal and ceramic containers, annual nuclide release rete, and the degree of loss of bentonite buffer around the container are selected as the elements and investigated for important nuclides. All the elements are shown to be sensitive to the results. Methodology studied through this study and the results are expected to make a good feedback to the repository design. As a follow-up study, separated in Part 2, the A-KRS will be deterministically assessed and then compared among each other with the normal, the worst, and the best case scenarios associated with their extreme values these elements could have.

• Proceedings of the Korea Institute of Fire Science and Engineering Conference
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• 2013.04a
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• pp.27-28
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• 2013

이 논문에서는 신화재 확률론적 안전성평가 (PSA) 방법 중 정성적 분석 방법을 울진 3호기 원전에 적용한 결과를 기술하였다. 지금까지 대부분의 국내 원전 에서는 EPRI 화재 PSA 방법을 이용하여 화재 PSA를 수행해 왔었다. 최근 미국 규제기관과 산업체에서는 신화재 PSA 방법으로 NUREG/CR-6850을 개발하였다. 신화재 PSA 방법을 이용하여 울진 3호기를 정성적으로 분석한 결과 150개의 방화지역 중 75개 지역이 정량적 분석 대상으로 파악되었다. 이는 기존 EPRI 화재 PSA 방법으로 수행한 방화지역 수보다 23개 많았다. 또 화재 PSA 수행을 위한 기기 수는 770여개이고 케이블 수는 6,000여개로 나타났다.

• Computational Structural Engineering
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• v.2 no.4
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• pp.89-98
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• 1989

In order to take account of the statistical properties of random variables used in the structural analysis, the conventional approach usually adopts the safety factor based on past experiences for the qualitative assessment of structural safety problem. Recently, new approach based on the probabilistic concept has been applied to the assessment of structural safety in order to circumvent the difficulties of the conventional approach in choosing the appropriate safety factor. Thus, computer program called "Probabilistic finite element method" is developed by incorporating the probabilistic concept into the conventional matrix method in order to investigate the effects of the random variables on the final output of the structural analysis. From the comparison of some examples, it can be concluded that the PFEM developed in this study deals consistently with the uncertainty of random variables and provides the rational tool for the assessment of structural safety of plane frame.

• Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.191-198
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• 2014

Using results of groundwater flow system modeling for a hypothetical deep geological repository site, a distribution of groundwater flow rates at the disposal depth was analyzed and a method of applying this distribution to a safety assessment for a disposal of radioactive wastes was suggested. The distribution of groundwater flow rates was produced by hydraulic heads simulated from regional and local scale groundwater flow models for the hypothetical disposal site. The flow rates at the locations where deposition holes would be located were estimated. These rates were normalized by the maximum of the flow rates in order to probabilistically illustrate a possibility of canister failures at the deposition holes. From the normalized distribution, probabilistic expectations for mass discharges of radionuclides released from the canisters assumed to be failed were calculated and compared with those deterministically estimated under the assumption that the canisters at the same deposition holes were definitely failed. The suggested method can be contributed to constructing a methodology for safety assessment of a geological repository by reflecting natural conditions of a disposal site in more detail.

• Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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• 1997.10a
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• pp.753-758
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• 1997

본 논문은 확률론적 안전성 평가(Probabilistic Safety Assessment) 에서 수행하고 있는 현존 인간 신뢰도 분석(Human Reliability Analysis)의 현황과 기법의 한계점을 설명하고, 인적오류 분석(Human Error Analysis: HEA)의 필요성과 그 내용을 제시하였다. 그리고, 현재까지 개발된 인적오류 분석 기법 중 7가지 기법을 간략히 소개하고, 각 기법의 적용 범위, 오류 분석 구조, 분석 대상, 오류 분석 범위, 기반 모형 둥에 대해서 상호 비교한 결과를 제시하였다.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.28 no.2
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• pp.251-267
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• 1991

Plastic strength analysis using plastic failure mode as a limit state is adopted instead of a conventional elastic structural analysis to predict the ultimate strength of Web frame idealized by a plane frame. Linear programming arid Compact procedure are developed for determining the collapse load factor. It is found that the final results are good agreement with the results of Elasto-plastic analysis. Besides, the redundant structures like Web frame is known to have multiple failure modes. Web frame may collapse under any of the possible failure modes. Thus, the identification of these possible failure modes is necessary and very important in the reliability analysis of Web frame. In order to deal with multiple failure modes, automatic generation method of all failure modes and basic failure modes is used for selecting the dominant failure modes. The probability of failure pastic collapse of Web frame is calculated using these dominant failure modes. The safety of Web frame is asscssed and compared by performing the deterministic and probabilistic analysis.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.280-280
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• 2015

최근 봄철을 맞아 산을 찾는 등산객의 수가 증가하고 있으며 그에 따른 안전사고 발생 위험도 높아지고 있다. 산지재해 중 가장 많이 발생하고 있는 산사태나 토석류는 산을 찾는 등산객에게도 많은 안전사고를 발생시키고 있으나 아직까지 탐방로의 위험성과 안전에 대한 연구는 미흡한 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 설악산 국립공원 탐방로를 중심으로 재해발생 이력조사 및 현장조사를 실시하고 분석에 필요한 공간 데이터를 구축하였으며 설악산 전체 탐방로를 유역단위로 분할하여 위험성 분석을 실시하였다. 전체 탐방로를 대상으로 GIS기반의 확률론적 분석과 SINMAP을 이용하여 위험성 평가를 수행하였으며 그 결과 일부 탐방로 구간에서 위험성이 높게 나타났다. 탐방로 위험구간을 유역별로 나누어 분석함으로써 탐방로 전체에서 유역단위로 위험요소를 판단하는 자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.115-124
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• 1993

A structural system reliability analysis is studied for the safety assessment of midship section. Probabilistically dominant collapse modes are generated by Element Replacement Method and Incrimental Load Method. In order to avoid generating the same modes repeatedly, it is branched at final plastic hinge. Using first and second order bound methods, system failure probability of midship section is computed and compared with deterministic load factor method to show the usefulness of the proposed method.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.33 no.7
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• pp.29-41
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• 2017

There are uncertainties about the seismic load caused by seismic waves, which cannot be predicted due to the characteristics of the earthquake occurrence. Therefore, it is necessary to consider these uncertainties by probabilistic analysis. In this paper, procedures to develop a fragility curve that is a representative method to evaluate the safety of a structure by stochastic analysis were proposed for cut slopes. Fragility curve that considers uncertainties of soil shear strength parameters was prepared by Monte Carlo Simulation using pseudo static analysis. The fragility curve considering the uncertainty of the input ground motion was developed by performing time-history seismic analysis using selected 30 real ground input motions and the Newmark type displacement evaluation analysis. Fragility curves are represented as the cumulative probability distribution function with lognormal distribution by using the maximum likelihood estimation method.