• Title/Summary/Keyword: 확률론적 설계법

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Application of Fuzzy Decision to Optimization of Induction Motor Design (퍼지 결정법을 적용한 유도전동기의 최적 설계)

  • 박정태;정현교
    • Journal of the Korean Magnetics Society
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.103-108
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    • 1997
  • In this paper, the application of fuzzy decision to optimization of induction motor design is proposed. This method can reflect the designer's experience, view, and judgment, but also can be applied to multi-objective optimization design easily. The electromagnetic performance of the induction motor are calculated by means of the equivalent magnetic circuit method. The design method is The $D^2L$ method which is combined with fuzzy decision and optimization algorithm. As the optimization algorithm, the evolution strategy(ES) is applied. The proposed algorithm is applied to a multiobjective optimization of an induction motor design where the motor should have less weight and, at the same time, have higher efficiency and power factor at rated operating points.

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신경망 이론과 Simulated Annealing법을 이용한 노심 최적 장전모형 탐색 연구

  • 이정훈;장창선;김창효
    • Proceedings of the Korean Nuclear Society Conference
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    • 1997.10a
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    • pp.32-37
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    • 1997
  • 최적 노심장전모형을 찾기 위한 확률론적 방법중 하나인 Simulated Annealing 방법은 기존 결정론적 방법의 단점인 국부 최적해에 빠질 위험성을 줄이면서도 빠른 시간 안에 최적 노심장전 모형을 찾을 수 있다. 그러나 많은 장전모형의 핵특성을 계산하기 위해서는 많은 전산시간이 소요되기 때문에 이의 해결 방법으로 신경망이론 이용한 노심해석을 통하여 시간을 극소화하고, 기존의 섭동이론 등 가속화된 방법에 비해 정확도를 높였다. 영광 3호기 평형노심에 적용한 결과 기존 설계된 장전모형에 비하에 더 보수적인 제한치를 만족하면서도 주기길이가 33EFPD 만큼 길어지는 장전모형을 1시간 이내에 찾을 수 있어 기존의 결정론적 방법이나 다른 핵특성 계산 모델을 사용한 SA법에 비해 더 적은 전산시간 동안 정확한 최적해를 탐색하는 것을 확인하였다.

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Analysis of the Effect of Manufacturing Tolerance on Induction Motor Performance by Univariate Dimension Reduction Method (단변수 차원 감소법을 이용한 제작 공차가 유도전동기 성능에 미치는 영향력 분석)

  • Lee, Sang-Kyun;Kang, Byung-Su;Back, Jong Hyun;Kim, Dong-Hun
    • Journal of the Korean Magnetics Society
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.203-207
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    • 2015
  • This paper introduces a probabilistic analysis method in order to analyze the effect of manufacturing tolerance on induction motor performance occurring in massive production. The univariate dimension reduction method is adapted to predict probabilistic characteristics of a performance function due to certain probabilistic distributions of design variables. Moreover, the sensitivity information on mean and variance of the performance function is estimated, and then the effect of randomness of individual design variables on the probability performance function is analyzed. The effectiveness and accuracy of the method is investigated with a mathematical model and an induction motor.

Reliability Estimation of Steam Turbine Blade Using First Order Reliability Method (FORM을 이용한 증기 터빈블레이드의 신뢰성 평가)

  • 황진호;김철수;김정규
    • Proceedings of the Korean Reliability Society Conference
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    • 2002.06a
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    • pp.199-204
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    • 2002
  • 본 연구에서는 저압 증기 터빈블레이드의 안전성 확보를 위하여 작용응력 및 강도의 변동성을 고려한 확률론적 해석을 수행하였다. 정상상태에서 작용응력은 이론 및 유한요소해석에 의해서 얻을 수 있으며, 최대 von-Mises 응력은 215.4MPa이다. 회전굽힘 하중하에서의 피로한도는 응력비 R= -1에서 계단식 시험법을 이용하여 구하였으며, 이의 확률론적 특성에 가장 적합한 분포는 3 모수 와이블 분포이다. 그리고 신뢰성에 미치는 다양한 인자들의 영향은 영향계수(sensitivity factor)를 이용하여 정량적으로 평가하였다.

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Design of Single Layer Radar Absorbing Structures(RAS) for Minimizing Radar Cross Section(RCS) Using Impedance Matching (임피던스정합을 이용한 레이더반사면적 최소화 단층형 전파흡수구조 설계)

  • Jang, Byung-Wook;Park, Jung-Sun
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.43 no.2
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    • pp.118-124
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    • 2015
  • The design of radar absorbing structures(RAS) is a discrete optimization problem and is usually processed by stochastic optimization methods. The calculation of radar cross section(RCS) should be decreased to improve the efficiency of designing RAS. In this paper, an efficient method using impedance matching is studied to design RAS for minimizing RCS. Input impedance of the minimal RCS for the specified wave incident conditions is obtained by interlocking physical optics(PO) and optimizations. Complex permittivity and thickness of RAS are designed to satisfy the calculated input impedance by a discrete optimization. The results reveal that the studied method attains the same results as stochastic optimization which have to conduct numerous RCS analysis. The efficiency of designing RAS can be enhanced by reducing the calculation of RCS.

Probabilistic finite Element Analysis of Eigenvalue Problem- Buckling Reliability Analysis of Frame Structure- (고유치 문제의 확률 유한요소 해석)

  • 양영순;김지호
    • Computational Structural Engineering
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.111-117
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    • 1991
  • The analysis method calculating the mean and standard deviation for the eigenvalue of complicated structures in which the limit state equation is implicitly expressed is formulated and applied to the buckling analysis by combining probabilistic finite element method with direct differential method which is a kind of sensitivity analysis technique. Also, the probability of buckling failure is calculated by combining classical reliability techniques such a MVFOSM and AFOSM. As random variables external load, elastic modulus, sectional moment of inertia and member length are chosen and Parkinson's iteration algorithm in AFOSM is used. The accuracy of the results by this study is verified by comparing the results with the crude Monte Carlo simulation and Importance Sampling Method. Through the case study of some structures the important aspects of buckling reliability analysis are discussed.

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Reliability Analysis under Input Variable and Metamodel Uncertainty using Bayesian Approach (베이지안 접근법을 이용한 입력변수 및 근사모델 불확실성 하에서의 신뢰성 분석)

  • An, Da-Wn;Won, Jun-Ho;Choi, Joo-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 2009.04a
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    • pp.97-100
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    • 2009
  • 신뢰성 분석은 불확실성으로 인한 제품의 성능 변동을 안전확률이나 파괴확률로 정량화 하여 설계에 이용하기 위해 연구되어 왔다. 불확실성은, 데이터의 양에 따라-물질의 본질적인 특성으로서의 많은 데이터가 주어진 경우의 물리적 불확실성과 부족한 데이터에서의 인식론적 불확실성으로 구분되고, 불확실성을 갖는 대상에 따라-입력변수 및 근사모델 불확실성으로 구분된다. 물리적 불확실성에 대한 연구는 많이 진행되어 왔지만, 실제 산업현장에는 부족한 데이터로 인한 인식론적 불확실성이 지배적이며 이에 대한 연구는 최근에서야 진행되고 있다. 불확실성을 고려하는 신뢰성 기반 설계에는 효율성을 위해 실제모델을 대체하는 근사모델이 이용되는데, 근사모델법 자체에 대한 연구는 많이 진행되어 왔으나, 근사모델 이기 때문에 존재하는 불확실성을 고려한 연구는 최근에서야 연구되기 시작하였다. 본 연구에서는 베이지안 접근법에 기반하여 입력변수 및 근사모델 불확실성을 통합 고려하는 새로운 신뢰성 분석 기법을 제시하고 수치예제를 통해 타당성을 증명한 후, 이를 공학문제에 적용한다.

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Understanding Bayesian Experimental Design with Its Applications (베이지안 실험계획법의 이해와 응용)

  • Lee, Gunhee
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.1029-1038
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    • 2014
  • Bayesian experimental design is a useful concept in applied statistics for the design of efficient experiments especially if prior knowledge in the experiment is available. However, a theoretical or numerical approach is not simple to implement. We review the concept of a Bayesian experiment approach for linear and nonlinear statistical models. We investigate relationships between prior knowledge and optimal design to identify Bayesian experimental design process characteristics. A balanced design is important if we do not have prior knowledge; however, prior knowledge is important in design and expert opinions should reflect an efficient analysis. Care should be taken if we set a small sample size with a vague improper prior since both Bayesian design and non-Bayesian design provide incorrect solutions.

A Deterministic Investigation for Establishing Design Load of Railway Bridges (표준열차하중 수립을 위한 결정론적 분석)

  • Kim, Sung-Il;Kim, Hyun-Min;Lee, Myung-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.290-297
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    • 2010
  • At present, the design live load of railway is divided into common railway and high speed railway separately in Korea. L22 which is based on American railway standards is used for common railway and HL25 which is based on Eurocode is used for high speed railway. Although, the design load is the starting point for design of railway, any research for developing design load does not exist at all. However, Europe and Japan develops the design load model consistently for advanced design. Recently, deterministic, probabilistic and cost performance approaches are investigated for developing new design load in Europe which is called LM2000. In the present paper, as a step for developing new design live load model for Korean railway, deterministic processes will be introduced. The safety margins are analyzed based on serviced real trains versus proposed new design load model and a necessity for new design live load will be presented quantitatively.

Comparative Study of Reliability Design Methods by Application to Donghae Harbor Breakwaters. 2. Sliding of Caissons (동해항 방파제를 대상으로 한 신뢰성 설계법의 비교 연구. 2. 케이슨의 활동)

  • Kim, Seung-Woo;Suh, Kyung-Duck;Oh, Young-Min
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.137-146
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    • 2006
  • This is the second of a two-part paper which describes comparison of reliability design methods by application to Donghae Harbor Breakwaters. In this paper, Part 2, we deal with sliding of caissons. The failure modes of a vertical breakwater, which consists of a caisson mounted on a rubble mound, include the sliding and overturning of the caisson and the failure of the rubble mound or subsoil, among which most frequently occurs the sliding of the caisson. The traditional deterministic design method for sliding failure of a caisson uses the concept of a safety factor that the resistance should be greater than the load by a certain factor (e.g. 1.2). However, the safety of a structure cannot be quantitatively evaluated by the concept of a safety factor. On the other hand, the reliability design method, for which active research is being performed recently, enables one to quantitatively evaluate the safety of a structure by calculating the probability of failure of the structure. The reliability design method is classified into three categories depending on the level of probabilistic concepts being employed, i.e., Level 1, 2, and 3. In this study, we apply the reliability design methods to the sliding of the caisson of the breakwaters of Donghae Harbor, which was constructed by traditional deterministic design methods to be damaged in 1987. Analyses are made for the breakwaters before the damage and after reinforcement. The probability of failure before the damage is much higher than the allowable value, indicating that the breakwater was under-designed. The probability of failure after reinforcement, however, is close to the allowable value, indicating that the breakwater is no longer in danger. On the other hand, the results of the different reliability design methods are in fairly good agreement, confirming that there is not much difference among different methods.