• Title/Summary/Keyword: 해양 기상 예보

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군 우주기상 지원을 위한 기반 연구

  • Choe, Ho-Seong;Jo, Gyeong-Seok;Kim, Yeon-Han;Lee, Jae-Jin;Gwak, Yeong-Sil;Hwang, Jeong-A;Choe, Seong-Hwan;Jo, Il-Hyeon;Park, Yeong-Deuk;O, Su-Yeon;Jo, Jeong-Won;Lee, Bong-U;Kim, Bom-Si-Nae
    • Bulletin of the Korean Space Science Society
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    • 2009.10a
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    • pp.25.5-26
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    • 2009
  • 인류의 활동 무대가 우주공간으로 확대됨으로써 우주기상에 의한 피해를 최소화 할 수 있는 조치가 요구됨에 따라 우주기상에 대한 감시 및 예 경보 업무가 필요해 졌다. 미국은 이미 우주기상 감시와 예보의 필요성을 인식하고 해양대기청(NOAA), 미 공군(USAF), 항공우주국(NASA), 내무부(DOI), 에너지부(DOE), 과학재단(NSF)이 연합하여 1996년 국가우주기상 프로그램(National Space Weather Program)을 수립.추진하고 있다. 특히 정부연구 기관인 NOAA 산하 우주기상예보센터(Space Weather Prediction Center; SWPC)와 미 공군 기상국(AFWA)은 우주기상 자료 생산, 수집, 자료 센터 운용, 연구 지원 및 예 경보 업무를 공동으로 수행하고 있으며 관련 자료 및 정보의 교환 등 매우 밀접하게 상호협력하고 있다. 최근 정부는 과학기술 7대 중점투자 분야별 중점육성후보기술로서 우주감시체계개발기술을 포함한 국가과학기술기본계획(577전략)을 수립 발표하였으며, 대한민국 공군은 향후 우주군 창설을 목표로 우주전력 기반체계구축을 계획하고 있다. 국방부는 2012년 전시작전통제권 환수에 대비한 독자적인 작전지휘능력 확보가 필요한 상황이며, 미래의 한국군 독자적 네트웍 중심 전장(NCW: Network Central Warfare) 체계 구축을 위해서는 미 공군의 "우주기상작전센터"와 같은 우주기상 예 경보 체계 구축이 요구된다. 이 연구에서는 군의 독자적 우주작전능력 확보를 위한 우주기상 예 경보 체계 구축 방향을 제시하고자 사전기반 연구를 수행하였다. 그 내용으로 우주기상에 대한 개요 및 우주기상의 변화에 따른 국내외 영향을 조사하고 국내외 우주기상 예 경보 시스템을 소개하고자 한다. 또한, 미공군의 우주기상 활용 상태를 점검하여 한국 공군을 위한 우주기상 예 경보 체계 구축 및 인력과 기술 확보에 대한 방안을 제시하고자 한다.

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Introduction of Optimum Navigation Route Assessment System based on Weather Forecasting and Seakeeping Prediction (기상 예보 및 내항성능을 고려한 최적 항로 평가 시스템의 도입)

  • Park Geon Il;Choi Kyong Soon;Lee Jin Ho;Kim Mun Sung
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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    • 2004.11a
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    • pp.61-70
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    • 2004
  • This paper treats optimal route assessment system at seaway based on weather forecasting and wave measurement through observation. Since early times. captain & officer have been sailing to select the optimum route considering the weather ana ship status condition empirically. However. it is rare to find digitalized onboard route support system whereas weather fax or wave and swell chart are utilized for the officer. based on officer's experience. In this paper, optimal route assessment system which is composed of voyage efficiency and safety component is introduced. Optimum route minimized ETA (estimated time of arrival) ana fuel consumption is evaluated for efficient voyage considering speed loss and power increase based on wave added resistance of ship. In the view point of safety, seakeeping prediction is performed based on 3 dimensional panel method. Basically. the weather forecast is assumed to be prepared previously in order to operate this system.

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Numerical Simulation of Storm Surge and Wave due to Typhoon Kong-Rey of 2018 (2018년 태풍 콩레이에 대한 폭풍해일과 파랑 수치모의)

  • Kwon, Kab Keun;Jho, Myeong Hwan;Yoon, Sung Bum
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.252-261
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    • 2020
  • Numerical simulations of the storm surge and waves induced by the Typhoon Kong-Rey incident on the south coast of Korea in 2018 are conducted using the JMA-MSM weather field provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency, and the calculated surge heights are compared with the time history observed at harbours along the south-east coast. For the waves occurring coincidentally with the storm surges the calculated significant wave heights are compared with the data measured using the wave buoys operated by the KHOA (Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Agency) and the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration), and the data observed at AWAC stations of the KIOST (Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology). Additional simulations are also performed based on the pressure and wind fields obtained using the best track information provided by the JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) of the United States, and the results are compared and analyzed. Based on the results of this study it is found that the reliable weather fields are essential for the accurate simulation of storm surges and waves.

Development and Evaluation of an Ensemble Forecasting System for the Regional Ocean Wave of Korea (앙상블 지역 파랑예측시스템 구축 및 검증)

  • Park, JongSook;Kang, KiRyong;Kang, Hyun-Suk
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.84-94
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    • 2018
  • In order to overcome the limitation of deterministic forecast, an ensemble forecasting system for regional ocean wave is developed. This system predicts ocean wind waves based on the meteorological forcing from the Ensemble Prediction System for Global of the Korea Meteorological Administration, which is consisted of 24 ensemble members. The ensemble wave forecasting system is evaluated by using the moored buoy data around Korea. The root mean squared error (RMSE) of ensemble mean showed the better performance than the deterministic forecast system after 2 days, especially RMSE of ensemble mean is improved by 15% compared with the deterministic forecast for 3-day lead time. It means that the ensemble method could reduce the uncertainty of the deterministic prediction system. The Relative Operating Characteristic as an evaluation scheme of probability prediction was bigger than 0.9 showing high predictability, meaning that the ensemble wave forecast could be usefully applied.

Near Real-time Immediate Forecasting of Storm Surge Based on Typhoon Advisories (태풍 예경보에 근거한 폭풍해일 준실시간 즉각 예보)

  • Suh, SeungWon;Lee, HwaYoung;Kim, HyeonJeong;Park, JinSoo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.352-365
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    • 2012
  • A primary study on the rapid modeling of storm surge, which is one of typical coastal disasters, for immediate forecasting in conjunction with typhoon advisories is done and tested for the typhoons Bolaven, Tembin and Sanba which attacked to Korean Peninsula on August and September in this year 2012. Semi automatic rapid computations according to JTWC typhoon advisories were performed and uploaded to the web by models SLOSH in PC and ADCIRC in parallel clusters with 64 cores having 57k nodes encompassing the North-Western Pacific region. It only takes 1 and 2 hours from taking advisory to web uploading, respectively. By comparison with observed water surface elevations for the major tidal stations after Bolaven attack it shows within RMS error of 0.17~0.19 m for surge heights and only deviates 1 hour of peak surge time in ADCIRC model. Thus it is concluded that this approach provides a frame of near real-time immediate forecasting of storm surges with satisfactions.

A Study on the HDF5 Data Model Design for Gridded Marine Weather Information Based on S-100 (S-100 기반의 격자형 해양기상정보 데이터 모델 설계에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Donghun;Eom, Dae-Yong
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.46 no.3
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    • pp.158-167
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    • 2022
  • The International Maritime Organization's e-Navigation strategy introduces new technologies to ships to support easier and safer navigation. To implement the e-Navigation strategy, it was necessary to develop a common data model, that could meet various requirements across all aspects of the maritime information service. The International Hydrographic Organization's S-100 Universal Hydrographic Data Model was selected, as the basis for the standardization of maritime data products. Three S-100 based product specifications for weather information, collectively called "S-41X", are currently under development by the NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center, for use in the Electronic Chart Display and Information System (ECDIS). This paper describes a design of a grid based S-413 data model out of three S-41X product specifications. Other S-100 data products, which support the gridded data format, were considered. To verify the data model, an encoding test was conducted, using the Korean Meteorological Adminstration's numerical prediction model results.

Hindcasting Analysis of Swells Occurred in the East Coast in February 2008 (2008년 2월 동해안에서 발생한 너울의 예측 분석)

  • Kim, Tae-Rim;Lee, Kang-Ho
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.62-67
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    • 2010
  • Swells occurred on the coast of the East Sea on February 24, 2008 caused a loss of three lives and also damaged several west coasts of Japan. The recent increase of swell intensity with number of accidents demands more accurate forecasting of swells in terms of time and location. The swells occurred in February 2008 are hindcasted using SWAN model to examine the accuracy of the model for future forecasting. The model results are compared with ReWW3 data as well as measurement wave data and specially, wave spectrum is analysed by comparing with observed spectrum at two wave stations located in the east coast of Korea. The SWAN model shows similar results with observation data in terms of significant wave heights and swell arrival time but the shapes of wave spectrum are different between model and in-situ measurement data. For further improvement of swell forecasting, more comparison and analysis with observed wave spectrum is necessary and wave directional spectrum data are required to study on the characteristics of swells in the East Sea.

Introduction of Optimum Navigation Route Assessment System based on Weather Forecasting and Seakeeping Prediction (개상 예보 및 내항성능을 고려한 최적 항로 평가 시스템의 도입)

  • Park Gun-il;Choi Kyong-Soon;Lee Jin-Ho;Kim Mun-Sung
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.28 no.10 s.96
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    • pp.833-841
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    • 2004
  • This paper treats optimal route assessment system at seaway based on weather forecasting and wave measurement through observation Since early times, captain & officer have been sailing to select the optimum route considering the weather and ship status condition empirically. However, it is rare to find digitalized onboard route support system whereas weather fax or wave and swell chart are utilized for the officer, based on officer's experience. In this paper, optimal route assessment system which is composed of voyage efficiency and safety component is introduced. Optimum route minimized ETA(estimated time of arrival) and fuel consumption is evaluated for efficient voyage considering speed loss and power increase based on wave added resistance of ship. In the view point of safety, seakeeping prediction is performed based on 3 dimensional panel method. Basically, the weather forecast is assumed to be prepared previously in order to operate this system.

Korean Ocean Forecasting System: Present and Future (한국의 해양예측, 오늘과 내일)

  • Kim, Young Ho;Choi, Byoung-Ju;Lee, Jun-Soo;Byun, Do-Seong;Kang, Kiryong;Kim, Young-Gyu;Cho, Yang-Ki
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.89-103
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    • 2013
  • National demands for the ocean forecasting system have been increased to support economic activity and national safety including search and rescue, maritime defense, fisheries, port management, leisure activities and marine transportation. Further, the ocean forecasting has been regarded as one of the key components to improve the weather and climate forecasting. Due to the national demands as well as improvement of the technology, the ocean forecasting systems have been established among advanced countries since late 1990. Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE) significantly contributed to the achievement and world-wide spreading of ocean forecasting systems. Four stages of GODAE were summarized. Goal, vision, development history and research on ocean forecasting system of the advanced countries such as USA, France, UK, Italy, Norway, Australia, Japan, China, who operationally use the systems, were examined and compared. Strategies of the successfully established ocean forecasting systems can be summarized as follows: First, concentration of the national ability is required to establish successful operational ocean forecasting system. Second, newly developed technologies were shared with other countries and they achieved mutual and cooperative development through the international program. Third, each participating organization has devoted to its own task according to its role. In Korean society, demands on the ocean forecasting system have been also extended. Present status on development of the ocean forecasting system and long-term plan of KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration), KHOA (Korea Hydrographic and Oceanographic Administration), NFRDI (National Fisheries Research & Development Institute), ADD (Agency for Defense Development) were surveyed. From the history of the pre-established systems in other countries, the cooperation among the relevant Korean organizations is essential to establish the accurate and successful ocean forecasting system, and they can form a consortium. Through the cooperation, we can (1) set up high-quality ocean forecasting models and systems, (2) efficiently invest and distribute financial resources without duplicate investment, (3) overcome lack of manpower for the development. At present stage, it is strongly requested to concentrate national resources on developing a large-scale operational Korea Ocean Forecasting System which can produce open boundary and initial conditions for local ocean and climate forecasting models. Once the system is established, each organization can modify the system for its own specialized purpose. In addition, we can contribute to the international ocean prediction community.

Analysis of Reliability of Weather Fields for Typhoon Sanba (1216) (태풍 기상장의 신뢰도 분석: 태풍 산바(1216))

  • Kwon, Kab Keun;Jho, Myeong Hwan;Ryu, Kyong Ho;Yoon, Sung Bum
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.32 no.6
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    • pp.465-480
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    • 2020
  • Numerical simulations of the storm surge and the wave induced by the Typhoon Sanba incident on the south coast of Korea in 2012 are conducted using the JMA-MSM forecast weather field, NCEP-CFSR reanalysis weather field, ECMWF-ERA5 reanalysis weather field, and the pressure and wind fields obtained using the best track information provided by JTWC. The calculated surge heights are compared with the time history observed at harbors along the coasts of Korea. For the waves the calculated significant wave heights are compared with the data measured using the wave buoys and the underwater pressure type wave gauge. As a result the JMA-MSM and the NCEP-CFSR weather fields give the highest reliability. The ECMWF-ERA5 gives in general surge and wave heights weaker than the measured. The ECMWF-ERA5, however, reproduces the best convergence belt formed in front of the typhoon. The weather field obtained using JTWC best track information gives the worst agreement.