• Korea Trade Review
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• v.42 no.2
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• pp.277-296
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• 2017

More than 95% of imports and exports in the World are being transported by vessels. In other words, marine transportation accounts for a large portion of share in the world trade. The purpose of this study is to analyze factors of seaborne trade volume according to items affecting on the world economy. This study conducted a linear regression analysis between seaborne trade volume and the world economy (world GDP) to estimate the correlation between them. Panel data analysis and random effects model analysis have been applied to examine the effect of seaborne trade volume. For this study, the seaborne trade volume is categorized into 10 items, and estimated how much global GDP will be affected when the trade volume changes. In addition, the granger causality test was conducted to verify the relationship between seaborne trade volume and the world GDP. As a result, seaborne trade volume and the world GDP were mutually influenced each other. However, seaborne trade volume affects the world economy more significantly. The items affecting world economic growth include petroleum products, crude oil, chemical products, and so on. The estimated value of the coefficients of petroleum products, crude oil and chemical products were 1.014, 1.013 and 1.010, respectively. The estimated value 1.014 of petroleum products means that the growth rate is 1.014 times higher than the current world GDP growth rate when the seaborne trade volume of petroleum products increased by one unit Lastly, this study examines the seaborne trade volume of 10 categories and then verifies whether the growth rate of world GDP will increase when the volume of seaborne trade increased. This study is expected to provide policy-makers with useful information about formulating policies related to international trade.

• Strategy21
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• s.46
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• pp.239-276
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• 2020

The failure of early economic sanctions aimed at hurting the overall economies of targeted states called for a more sophisticated design of economic sanctions. This paved way for the advent of 'smart sanctions,' which target the supporters of the regime instead of the public mass. Despite controversies over the effectiveness of economic sanctions as a coercive tool to change the behavior of a targeted state, the transformation from 'comprehensive sanctions' to 'smart sanctions' is gaining the status of a legitimate method to impose punishment on states that do not conform to international norms, the nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction in this particular context of the paper. The five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council proved that it can come to an accord on imposing economic sanctions over adopting resolutions on waging military war with targeted states. The North Korean nuclear issue has been the biggest security threat to countries in the region, even for China out of fear that further developments of nuclear weapons in North Korea might lead to a 'domino-effect,' leading to nuclear proliferation in the Northeast Asia region. Economic sanctions had been adopted by the UNSC as early as 2006 after the first North Korean nuclear test and has continually strengthened sanctions measures at each stage of North Korean weapons development. While dubious of the effectiveness of early sanctions on North Korea, recent sanctions that limit North Korea's exports of coal and imports of oil seem to have an impact on the regime, inducing Kim Jong-un to commit to peaceful talks since 2018. The purpose of this paper is to add a variable to the factors determining the success of economic sanctions on North Korea: preventing North Korea's evasion efforts by conducting illegal transshipments at sea. I first analyze the cause of recent success in the economic sanctions that led Kim Jong-un to engage in talks and add the maritime element to the argument. There are three conditions for the success of the sanctions regime, and they are: (1) smart sanctions, targeting commodities and support groups (elites) vital to regime survival., (2) China's faithful participation in the sanctions regime, and finally, (3) preventing North Korea's maritime evasion efforts.

• Knowledge Management Research
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.59-88
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• 2020

This study is to examine the influence of Asian countries on the economic field, and to explain the characteristics and purposes of China's Belt and Road Initiative using data analysis. The purpose of this study is to identify and analyze the influence and characteristics of China's One-to-One Road Initiative on the economic sector by examining trade and investment in Asian countries adjacent to China. In particular, the One-to-One Road initiative is proceeding in a way that connects China and neighboring countries. It is to understand the dependence of the Asian countries in China on the Chinese economy. In addition, it is intended to derive implications by grasping and evaluating what the level is based on data. This study also attempts to grasp the influence and ripple effects of the one-on-one strategy on the Chinese economy and the North Korean economy, where dependence is deepening. Recently, the strategy for Asian countries through a one-to-one initiative in China has been restructured in the framework of the construction of the "21st century Maritime Silk Road" and emphasizes the cooperation mechanism led by the country. In progress of the one Belt and One Road, Chinese ICT companies are remarkable. This study looked at the influence of China's digital one Belt and One Road on Asian countries.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2012.06a
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• pp.341-343
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• 2012

농어촌민들에게 안정적인 전력공급을 위해 낙후도서에 해저케이블 공사 중인 곳이 많다. 특히 선박통항량이 많은 무역항내 해저케이블 공사는 준설이 수반되기 때문에 안전위해요소가 많다. 안전위해요소를 분석하고 이를 해결할 수 있는 방안에 대해서 고찰해 본다.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.183-194
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• 2011

Countries in the world make a strategic effort to develop their own ports into hub ports and lure transshipment cargoes. Likewise, the Busan Port tries to become a container hub port in Northeast Asia, but there is lately a gradual decline in the number of transshipment cargoes. The purpose of this study was to examine the influential factors of port transshipment traffic in an effort to identify the determinants of transshipments in the Busan Port. In existing studies, harbor infrastructure, maritime transshipment cost, port cost and port service were primarily presented as the determinants of transshipment traffic after surveys were conducted by experts. In this study, the transshipment traffic in the Busan Port was selected as a dependent variable, and the container traffic and transshipment traffic of ports in adjacent countries and each country's amount of trade and economic growth rate were selected as explanatory variables to analyze what factors determined the transshipment traffic in the port.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.289-312
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• 2012

Shipping is a global industry, with 80% of the world's international trade of goods transported by sea. Many countries with large international trade volumes place great importance in developing their shipping industry. Recently changes in the world economy, international trade, world oil prices and other uncertainties have led to increased competition in the world shipping market. This is specially true, along the Pacific coast, where five of the world's major maritime countries, Japan, China, South Korea, Singapore and the United States are located. This paper aims to compare the international competitiveness of Japan, China, South Korea, Singapore and the United States with Port's Diamond Model and AHP analysis. The results of this research give some suggestions for international competitiveness of Chinese shipping industry, is very competitive in quantitative terms but is relatively weak in qualitative terms.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.43 no.3
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• pp.125-145
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• 2018

The Baltic Shipping Exchange is reporting the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) which represents the average charter rate for bulk carriers transporting major cargoes such as iron ore, coal, grain, and so on. And the current BDI index is reflected in the proportion of capesize 40%, panamax 30% and spramax 30%. Like mentioned above, the capesize plays a major role among the various sizes of bulk carriers and this study is to analyze the influence of the factors influencing on charter rate of capesize carriers which transport iron ore and coal as the major cargoes. For this purpose, this study verified causality between variables using Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and tried to derive a long-run equilibrium model between the dependent variable and independent variables. Regression analysis showed that every six independent variable has a significant effect on the capesize charter rate, even at the 1% level of significance. Charter rate decreases by 0.08% when capesize total fleet increases by 1%, charter rate increases by 0.04% when bunker oil price increases by 1%, and charter rate decreases by 0.01% when Yen/Dollar rate increases by 1%. And charter rate increases by 0.02% when global GDP increases by one unit (1%). In addition, the increase in cargo volume of iron ore and coal which are major transportation items of capesize carriers has also been shown to increase charter rates. Charter rate increases by 0.11% in case of 1% increase in iron ore cargo volume, and 0.09% in case of 1% increase in coal cargo volume. Although there have been some studies to analyze the influence of factors affecting the charterage of bulk carriers in the past, there have been few studies on the analysis of specific size vessels. At present moment when ship size is getting bigger, this study carried out research on capesize vessels, which are biggest among bulk carriers, and whose utilization is continuously increasing. This study is also expected to contribute to the establishment of trade policies for specific cargoes such as iron ore and coal.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.612-620
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• 2013

In this study, time series analysis was tried, which is widely applied to demand forecast of diverse fields such as finance, economy, trade, and so on, different from previous regression analysis. Future marine traffic volume was forecasted on the basis of data of the number of ships entering Incheon port from January 1996 to June 2013, through courses of stationarity verification, model identification, coefficient estimation, and diagnostic checking. As a result of prediction January 2014 to December 2015, February has less traffic volume than other months, but January has more traffic volume than other months. Also, it was found out that Incheon port was more proper to ARIMA model than exponential smoothing method and there was a difference of monthly traffic volume according to seasons. The study has a meaning in that future traffic volume was forecasted per month with time series model. Also, it is judged that forecast of future marine traffic volume through time series model will be the more suitable model than prediction of marine traffic volume with previous regression analysis.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.48 no.1
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• pp.62-77
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• 2024

In the maritime shipping industry, imbalance between supply and demand has persistently increased, leading to the utilization of blank sailings by major shipping companies worldwide as a key means of flexibly adjusting vessel capacity in response to shipping market conditions. Traditionally, blank sailings have been frequently implemented around the Chinese New Year period. However, due to unique circumstances such as the global pandemic starting in 2020 and trade tensions between the United States and China, shipping companies have recently conducted larger-scale blank sailings compared to the past. As blank sailings directly impact freight transport delays, they can have negative repercussions from perspectives of both businesses and consumers. Therefore, this study employed Poisson regression models and negative binomial regression models to analyze the influence of maritime freight rate determinants on shipping companies' decisions regarding blank sailings, aiming to proactively address potential consequences. Results of the analysis indicated that, in Poisson regression analysis for 2M, significant variables included global container shipping volume, container vessel capacity, container ship scrapping volume, container ship newbuilding index, and OECD inflation. In negative binomial regression analysis, ocean alliance showed significance with global container shipping volume and container ship order volume, the alliance with container ship capacity and interest rates, non-alliance with international oil prices, global supply chain pressure index, container ship capacity, OECD inflation, and total alliance with container ship capacity and interest rates.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.53-74
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• 2018

The purpose of this study is to give a guiding implications to strengthen the competitiveness of port policy in Philippines, considering the inefficiencies in the port infrastructures and management systems in the country, despite its average economic growth of 5-6% and subsequent increment in passenger and trading volumes. These growth figures imply a compelling need for a systemic development plan and impellent actions. This study used the analytic hierarchy process for conducting a port competitiveness analysis and the data on deterrent factors were collected through literature and internal government documents including on-site interviews of the parties involved. The implications of the analysis led the study to conclude the need for adopting an enhanced centralized management, a separate investment and management for ports, a grade classification of nationwide small-, medium, and large-sized ports, efficient incoming systems for port dues, and an advanced mode of financing and investment inducement, among others.