• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.1-14
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• 2009

This study predicted Port trade volume by considering Korea's export to China and import Com China separately using ARIMA model (Multiplicative Seasonal ARIMA Model). We predicted monthly Port trade volumes for 27 months from October 2008 to December 2010 using monthly data from September 2008 to January 2001 using monthly data. As a result of prediction, we found that the export volume decreased in January, February, August and September while the import volume decreased in February, March, August and September. As the decrease period was clearly differentiated, it was possible to predict export and import volumes. Therefore, it is believed that the results of this study will generate useful basic data for policy makers or those working for export and import enterprises when they set up policies and management plans. And to improve competitive power of Port trade, this study suggests privatization of Port, improvement of information capability, improvement of competitive power of Port management companies, support for Port distribution companies, plans for active encouragement of transshipment, and management of added value creation policy.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.57-72
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• 2009

The purpose of this paper is to show the empirical measurement way of operation risk evaluation in domestic seaports for overcoming the limitations which the traditional DEA method has by using 13 Korean ports in 2003 for 4 inputs(birthing capacity, cargo handling capacity, number of coastal guard vessel, number o f coastal special guard vessel ) and 5 outputs(Export and Import Quantity, Number of Ship Calls, number of coastal accident, number of coastal crime, number of coastal pollution). Because traditional DEA method has produced the limited set of information, negative DEA mixed with tier, stratification and layering methods should be adopted. The goal of negative DEA is to set up DEA models that will place the poor operating ports on or close to the empirical frontier. The core empirical results of this paper are as follows. First, Donghae ports should benchmark the operation way of Yeasu, Busan, Woolsan ports in terms of the middle and longterm base. Second, 5 ports(ports of Taean, Yeasu, Tongyoung, Busan, Sokcho) which were revealed as the poor operating ports in Negative DEA analysis should benchmark Incheon, Woolsan, Pohan, and Donhae ports. The policy implication to the Korean seaports and planners is that Korean seaports should introduce the new methods like Negative DEA of this paper for predicting the poor operating in the ports.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.216-227
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• 2007

The aim of this paper is to find out the nature of causality between the two ocean freights employing the Granger method. That is because the Baltic freights tend to move very closely and seem to be behave like one time series. The Granger causality test, however, is very sensitive to the number of lags used in the analysis. This means that one has to be very careful in implementing the Granger causality test. This paper, hence, uses more rather than the lags which the Akaike Information Criterion and the Schwarz Information Criterion suggest. This study shows that BPI does not "Granger-cause" BCI and BSI, but BCI and BSI Granger-cause BPI. I also discover that BHSI does not "Granger-cause" BPI and BSI, but BPI and BSI Granger-cause BHSI. I, hence, model and estimate the ocean freight function and show that the Baltic ocean freight market is inefficient and the biased estimator of the other freight.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2015.10a
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• pp.66-68
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• 2015

최적항로 지원 시스템은 실해역 속도 성능 예측방법에서의 선택 근거확보와 정확도 평가를 위한 효과 검증이 반드시 필요하다. 하지만 이 같은 성능검증에 있어서 동일한 선박에 대한 다양한 대안 항로에서의 동시성능계측이 불가능하기 때문에 효과를 직접 비교하기는 상당히 어렵다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 최적항로 지원 시스템의 효과 검증을 위한 간접적인 절차를 제안하였고, 시스템의 내부 분석코드를 이용하여 효과를 비교 검증하였다. 그 절차는 1) 계산의 근거 인기상 정보의 정확성 검증, 2) 실제 항로에서의 성능예측계산의 신뢰성 확인, 3) 신뢰성이 확보된 계산방법을 이용한 최적항로선택, 4) 실제 항로와 최적항로의 연료 효율성 비교의 4단계로 이루어진다. 대상 선박은 폴라리스쉬핑의 솔라돌핀호(208k BC)이며 실선 운항 데이터는 최적항로 지원 시스템을 통하여 직접 계측하였다. 그 결과 호주-한국 항차에서 최적항로를 항해할 경우 약 6.0%의 연료 절감 효과를 기대할 수 있음을 확인하였다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.29 no.4
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• pp.180-188
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• 2017

Recently, as the strength of winds and waves increases due to the climate change, abnormal waves such as swells have been also increased, which results in the increase of downtime events of loading/unloading in a harbour. To reduce the downtime events, breakwaters were constructed in a harbour to improve the tranquility. However, it is also important and useful for efficient port operation by predicting accurately and also quickly the downtime events when the harbour operation is in a limiting condition. In this study, numerical simulations were carried out to calculate the wave conditions based on the forecasted wind data in offshore area/outside harbour and also the long-term observation was carried out to obtain the wave data in a harbour. A forecasting method was designed using an auto-regressive (AR) and artificial neural networks (ANN) models in order to establish the relationship between the wave conditions calculated by wave model (SWAN) in offshore area and observed ones in a harbour. To evaluate the applicability of the proposed method, this method was applied to predict wave heights in a harbour and to forecast the downtime events in Pohang New Harbour with highly complex topography were compared. From the verification study, it was observed that the ANN model was more accurate than the AR model.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.763-774
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• 2021

The COVID-19 virus has generated major shockwaves in all spheres of human life since its outbreak. Maritime transport (both cargo and passenger) is one of the industries most heavily affected, yet over 80% of the world cargo is transported by sea. This study analyzes maritime port operational efficiencies before and after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic to determine whether the pandemic has caused major differences in the operational efficiencies of many leading Asian maritime container ports via data envelopment analysis (DEA). The results of both the CCR and BCC models reveal that overall, efficiency during the COVID-19 pandemic has been higher than before the pandemic despite a few inefficiencies. This implies that the pandemic has so far not has major consequences for the operational efficiency of maritime ports. However, two ports (Busan and Guangzhou) should adjust the scale sizes and technical capacities of their operations to improve performance.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2016.05a
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• pp.266-268
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• 2016

우리나라는 항만운영의 효율성 및 선박 안전운항을 위하여 1993년 포항을 시작으로 전국 18개의 VTS 시스템을 설치 운영하고 있으나, 최근 선박 교통량의 증가와 더불어 해양사고의 증가 원인으로 인적요인에 대해 연구 필요성이 대두되고 있다. 특히 해상교통관제 업무는 고도의 주의력과 예측능력을 요구하므로 이를 저해하는 인적요인을 분석 및 관리할 필요성이 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 VTS 관제실의 근무환경에 대해 설문조사를 통한 요구사항 분석과 함께 현장조사를 시행하여 분석함으로서 VTS 관제장비 및 관제석의 최적 배치방안을 제시하여 최상의 해상교통관리 체제 구축에 대하여 고찰해 보았다.

• Korea Trade Review
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• v.48 no.3
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• pp.217-242
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• 2023

This study aims to analyze the factors influencing the logistics demand of inland ports along the Yangtze River and predict future port logistics demand based on these factors. The logistics demand prediction using system dynamics techniques was conducted for a total of six ports, including Chongqing and Yibin ports in the upper reaches, Jingzhou and Wuhan ports in the middle reaches, and Nanjing and Suzhou ports in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The logistics demand for all ports showed an increasing trend in the mid-term prediction until 2026. The logistics demand of Chongqing port was mainly influenced by the scale of the hinterland economy, while Yibin port appeared to heavily rely on the level of port automation. In the case of the upper and middle reach ports, logistics demand increased as the energy consumption of the hinterland increased and the air pollution situation worsened. The logistics demand of the middle reach ports was greatly influenced by the hinterland infrastructure, while the lower reach ports were sensitive to changes in the urban construction area. According to the sensitivity analysis, the logistics demand of ports relying on large cities was relatively stable against the increase and decrease of influential factors, while ports with smaller hinterland city scales reacted sensitively to changes in influential factors. Therefore, a strategy should be established to strengthen policy support for Chongqing port as the core port of the upper Yangtze River and have surrounding ports play a supporting role for Chongqing port. The upper reach ports need to play a supporting role for Chongqing port and consider measures to enhance connections with middle and lower reach ports and promote the port industry. The development strategy for inland ports along the Yangtze River suggests the establishment of direct routes and expansion of the transportation network for South Korean ports and stakeholders. It can suggest expanding the hinterland network and building an efficient transportation system linked with the logistics hub. Through cooperation, logistics efficiency can be enhanced in both regions, which will contribute to strengthening the international position and competitiveness of each port.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2016.05a
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• pp.332-335
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• 2016

2000년대 들어 정보기술의 발달로 정보공유와 수집을 쉽게 할 수 있게 되면서 많은 정보를 활용하여 미래의 사람들의 행동과 생각을 예측하기에 이른다. 특히, 정부는 보안과 위험관리 분야에 빅데이터 개념을 도입하여 미래에 대한 위험을 예측하고 효과적으로 관리할 수 있게 되었다. 선박도 사람과 마찬가지로 선박운항과 관련된 수많은 정보들을 만들어낸다. 이렇게 생성된 정보는 각 기관에 흩어져 관리되고 있으며, VTS센터에서 수집되는 정보들은 아직까지 체계적인 관리조차 이루어지지 않고 있다. 본 제언은 국내 VTS센터, 나아가 인근 국가의 VTS센터에서 생성되는 각종 정보들과 관련 기관에서 활용되는 정보들을 한 곳에서 통합하여 관리하는 시스템을 구축하고 이곳에서 공유 분석되는 정보를 통해 조금이나마 선박사고의 위험성을 감소시킬 수 있는 관제 방법에 대해서 생각해보았다. 이에 대한 방안 중 하나로 정보공유를 통한 선박 사고 개연성 예측 모델을 제시하고자 한다. 이후 연구를 통해, 본 제언에서 제시된 사고 개연성 예측 모델을 위한 위험유발 인자와 사고의 발생과의 상관을 통계적으로 해명할 수 있게 된다면 본 모델을 활용하여 보다 선제적이고, 효율적인 선박관제를 수행할 수 있을 것으로 생각된다.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.20-42
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• 2010

This study is aimed at evaluating transshipment competitiveness of Incheon New Port which will open in 2013. For this reason, we used Conjoint Analysis(CA) for a methodology of this research as CA had been frequently adopted for empirical analysis of new container terminal in previous studies. We have provided the questionnaires to the stake holders of the port such as experts in Port Authority(PA), logistics companies, and terminal operators. The result showed that transshipment competitiveness of Incheon New Port was subordinate to transshipment costs and port costs of Busan and Shanghai. Overall, we hope this study could help draw up the policies on a New Port that will attract transshipment cargoes and set up marketing plan for an early settlement.