• Title/Summary/Keyword: 한발예보

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Drought Index on Small Watersheds (소유역의 한발지표 정립)

  • Kim Sun-joo;Yo Woon-shik;Lee Kwang-ya
    • KCID journal
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.22-28
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    • 1994
  • The calculation method for the Drought index based on the principal hydrological factors, such as precipitation, reservoir storage and river discharge, can estimate the duration and intensity of drought. It is not easy to establish an universal criteria o

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Drought Index Calculation for Irrigation Reservoirs (관개용 저수지의 한발지수산정)

  • 김선주;이광야;신동원
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.37 no.6
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    • pp.103-111
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    • 1995
  • Drought index calculation based on the principal hydrological parameters, such as rainfall and reservoir storage, can estimate the duration and intensity of drought in irrigation reservoirs. It is difficult to build up a drought criteria since the conditions change variously by the reliability of rainfall. Because of the increasing water demands, it is urgent to prepare a generalized positive countermeasure to overcome drought. Water demands can at calculated but the estimation of drought characteristics, and the effective water management method can be established. The purpose of this study is to obtain a drought index and build up a data-base on the reservoir basins for establishing the fundamental hydrological data-base. This Index can observe the behavior of the WSI(Water Supply Index) and the component indices. The results summarized through this study are as follows. 1. WSI value of zero does not correspond to 100% in average due to the skewness in the probability distributions. 2. WSI is not a linear index; that is, given change in terms of water volume or percentage of average does not result in a proportional change on the WSI scale. 3. WSI is not always between the reservoir and the rainfall index in magnitude. This is only true if the component indices are of opposite sign. If they are of the same sign, the SWSI will often have a mangitude greater than either of the component indices. This is easily understood, because the concurrence of extreme values of the same sign for the two components is rarer than the occurrence of extreme values for either of the two components individually.

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Development of Naïve-Bayes classification and multiple linear regression model to predict agricultural reservoir storage rate based on weather forecast data (기상예보자료 기반의 농업용저수지 저수율 전망을 위한 나이브 베이즈 분류 및 다중선형 회귀모형 개발)

  • Kim, Jin Uk;Jung, Chung Gil;Lee, Ji Wan;Kim, Seong Joon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.10
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    • pp.839-852
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to predict monthly agricultural reservoir storage by developing weather data-based Multiple Linear Regression Model (MLRM) with precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average temperature, and average wind speed. Using Naïve-Bayes classification, total 1,559 nationwide reservoirs were classified into 30 clusters based on geomorphological specification (effective storage volume, irrigation area, watershed area, latitude, longitude and frequency of drought). For each cluster, the monthly MLRM was derived using 13 years (2002~2014) meteorological data by KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) and reservoir storage rate data by KRC (Korea Rural Community). The MLRM for reservoir storage rate showed the determination coefficient ($R^2$) of 0.76, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.73, and root mean square error (RMSE) of 8.33% respectively. The MLRM was evaluated for 2 years (2015~2016) using 3 months weather forecast data of GloSea5 (GS5) by KMA. The Reservoir Drought Index (RDI) that was represented by present and normal year reservoir storage rate showed that the ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics) average hit rate was 0.80 using observed data and 0.73 using GS5 data in the MLRM. Using the results of this study, future reservoir storage rates can be predicted and used as decision-making data on stable future agricultural water supply.

Meteorological Constraints and Countermeasures in Major Summer Crop Production (하작물의 기상재해와 그 대책)

  • Shin-Han Kwon;Hong-Suk Lee;Eun-Hui Hong
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.398-410
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    • 1982
  • Summer crops grown in uplands are greatly diversified and show a large variation in difference with year and location in Korea. The principal factor for the variation is weather, in which precipitation and temperature play a leading role and such a weather factors as wind, sun lights also influence production of the summer crops. Since artificial control of weather conditions as a main stress factor for crop production is almost impossible, it must be minimized only by an improvement of cultivation techniques and crop improvement. Precipitation plays a role as one of the most important factor for production of the summer crops and it is considered in two aspects, drought and excess moisture. This country, which belongs to monsoon territory, necessarily encounter one of this stress almost every year, even though the level is different. Therefore, the facilities for both drought and excess moisture are required, but actually it is not easy to complete for them. On this account, crops tolerant to drought, excess moisture and pests should be considered for establishing summer crops. For the districts damaged habitually every season, adequate crops should be cultured and appropriate method of planting, drainage and weed control should be applied diversely. Injuries by temperature is mainly attributed to lower temperature particularly in late fall and early spring, although higher temperature often causes some damages depending upon the kind of crops. Sometimes, lower temperature in summer season playa critical role for yield reduction in the summer crops. However, certain crops are prevented to some extent from this kind of stress by improving varieties tolerant to cold, hot weather or early maturing varieties. As is often the case, control of planting time or harvesting is able to be a good management for escaping the stress. Lodging, plant diseases and pests are considered as a direct or indirect damage due to weather stress, but these are characters able to be overcome by means of crop improvement and also controlled by other suitable methods. In addition, polytical supports capable of improving constitution of agriculture into modern industry is urgently required by programming of data for the damages, establishment of damage forecasting and compensation system.

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