• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.311-311
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• 2022

전 세계적으로 기후변화 및 산업화로 인해 대규모 홍수, 가뭄, 폭염, 산불 등의 재해가 빈번하게 발생하고 있으며, 이러한 재해 및 재난을 조기에 발견하고 최소화를 위한 대응 체계 및 관리방안의 필요성이 증대되고 있다. 이러한 자연재해들의 특징은 추가 재해를 유발할 수 있다는 것으로 재해의 강도가 증가할 뿐만 아니라 여러 가지 재난 및 재해를 동시에 유발하는 형태로 변화하기 때문에, 단일자연재해 평가 기술을 바탕으로 복합자연재해에 대한 분석 및 감지가 진행되어야 한다. 최근 기후변화로 인한 기상 패턴의 변화 및 가뭄 발생빈도의 증가가 뚜렷하며, 국외에서는 폭염과 가뭄을 고려한 복합자연재해로 'Flash Drought'로 정의된 돌발가뭄에 대한 연구가 이루어지고 있다. 폭염과 가뭄은 단순 강우 부족으로 인한 가뭄, 높은 기온으로 인한 폭염 등이 서로 독립적으로 발생하는 경우와 강우부족과 폭염의 지속으로 인한 상호연관성이 존재하는 복합자연재해 등으로 구분할 수 있다. 돌발가뭄은 강수 부족 또는 폭염이 지속되거나 강도가 높아질 경우, 지면온도가 상승하여 토양수분이 필요 이상으로 증발하여 단기간에 발생하는 초단기 가뭄으로 복합자연재해에 해당하며, 이러한 돌발가뭄은 농업분야에서 작물 생장 및 영농기 활동에 큰 영향을 미치기 때문에 모니터링 및 감지 기술이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 수문기상학적 요소를 활용하여 폭염 및 가뭄을 고려한 복합자연재해에 대한 상관분석을 수행하였다. 기상청에서 제공하는 기상자료(일최고기온/평균기온/최저기온, 강수량, 상대습도, 일조량 등)에 대한 전국 76개소 대상 기상자료를 구축하였으며, Sentinel, Landsat, MODIS(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) 등과 같은 위성영상 자료를 구축하여 폭염과 가뭄에 대한 각각의 인자를 선정하고 상관 관계를 분석하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 향후 복합자연재해 감지 및 예측 기술 개발에 활용하여 재해 예방 및 대응에 대한 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.188-188
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• 2018

최근 들어 우리나라에서는 봄부터 여름까지 가뭄과 폭염이 빈번하게 발생하고 있다. 가뭄 또는 폭염의 발생빈도가 높아질 것으로 예상되고 있는 바, 점차 사회, 경제적 피해 규모가 커질 것으로 예상된다. 따라서 가뭄 또는 폭염의 심도(severity)나 지속기간의 영향에 대한 분석을 통해 가뭄 또는 폭염의 위험도를 고려하여 대응할 필요가 있다. 가뭄의 경우에는 다양한 가뭄지수, 가뭄 빈도 및 심도 등에 대한 연구가 꾸준히 진행되고 있으나, 폭염에 대해서는 그러한 연구가 미비한 실정이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 최근 우리나라에서 발생한 가뭄을 동반하는 폭염의 크기(magnitude)에 대한 분석을 수행하기 위해 폭염지수(heat wave magnitude index)를 산정하고자 한다. 일반적으로 우리나라 기상청에서는 폭염 주의보와 폭염 경보의 발령을 일최고기온이 각각 $33^{\circ}C$ 및 $35^{\circ}C$ 이상인 날이 2일 이상 지속될 것으로 예상되는 경우를 기준으로 하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 가뭄을 동반한 폭염 사상의 크기 분석을 위해 폭염이 지속되는 기간을 우리나라 기상청에서 정의하는 2일, 3일로 구분하여 적용하고, 폭염으로 정의하는 기준(threshold)의 경우는 기존의 $33^{\circ}C$ 및 $35^{\circ}C$와 함께 상대적인 기준을 적용하여 적용성을 알아보고자 한다. 적용 대상은 우리나라 종관기상관측소(ASOS)의 일최고기온 자료이며, 4월에서 10월 사이의 일최고기온을 대상으로 하였다. 이를 통해 폭염의 정도에 대해 정량화하고 이를 이용한 위험도 분석도 가능해지리라 판단된다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.355-355
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• 2021

극한 폭염사상은 지난 20세기 이후 점점 더 빈번하게 발생하고 있으며, 더 광범위한 지역에서 발생하고 있다. 이러한 폭염사상은 다가오는 지구 온난화 시대에서 그 강도가 더 강해지고 지속기간이 길어질 것으로 예상되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 극한강우에 대한 강우강도-지속기간-빈도(intensity-duration-frequency, IDF)곡선의 개념을 폭염사상에 적용하여 미래의 극심한 폭염사상에 대한 발생확률, 강도 및 지속날짜(heat wave intensity-persistence day-frequency, HPF) 간의 관계를 확인해보고자 한다. 또한 해당 모델의 불확실성은 베이지안 기법을 이용하여 분석하였다. 우리나라 6개 주요 지역(대관령, 서울, 대전, 대구, 광주, 부산)에 대해 16개의 미래 일 최대 기온 앙상블 자료를 이용하여 비정상성 HPF곡선을 적용하였다. 미래 극한 폭염 앙상블 결과를 분석한 결과, 2050년을 기준으로 지속기간 2일에 대해 극한 폭염의 강도가 RCP 4.5 이하 시나리오 기준 1.23 ~ 1.69 ℃ 범위에서 상승할 가능성이 높은 것으로 나타났으며, RCP 8.5 이하 시나리오 기준의 경우 1.15 ~ 1.96 ℃ 범위로 나타났다. 또한 HPF 모델의 매개변수 추정으로 인한 불확실성의 경우, 다양한 기후 모델의 변동성으로 인한 불확실성보다 크게 나타났다. 모델의 매개변수 추정에 따른 불확실성을 반영한 결과, 2010~2050년에 해당하는 폭염의 강도에 대한 delta change의 95% 신뢰구간은 RCP 4.5 이하에서 0.53 ~ 4.94 ℃, RCP 8.5 이하에서 0.89 ~ 5.57 ℃로 나타났다.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.755-768
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• 2021

Purpose: Due to the nature of heatwave research, where research is conducted for a variety of subjects and purposes, it is important to anticipate research trends and development directions in order to improve the quality of the research. Therefore, in order to provide basic data that can suggest the current status of heatwave research and the direction of future research, we tried to examine the trends of heatwave-related research. Method: Heatwave studies published in academic journals registered with the National Research Foundation of Korea from 2011 to 2020 were analyzed by classifying them according to the research period, the purpose of the study, the research subjects and the research method. Result: The main research results are as follows. First, as interest in heatwaves increases, the number of heatwave studies also increases. Second, the purpose of heatwave research is biased and needs to be studied from various perspectives. Third, although various research subjects were used, an even study was not conducted. Fourth, under the influence of the research purpose, the bias of the research method appeared together. Conclusion: The damage caused by the heat wave is persistent and has a widespread impact. In order to manage, prevent, and respond to such heat waves as disasters, equal research should be conducted in various fields.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.68-84
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• 2020

This study analyzed the relationship between spatial characteristics and heat waves in the distribution area of the elderly population in Changwon, Gyeongsangnam-do. For analysis, the Statistics Census data, the Ministry of Environment land cover, Landsat 8 surface temperature, and the Meteorological Agency's heat wave days data were used. The spatial characteristics of the distribution of the elderly population was classified into 5 types through K-mean cluster analysis considering the land use types. The characteristics of the elderly population by spatial type were higher in the urbanized type(cluster-3), but the proportion of the elderly population was higher in the agricultural and forest area types(cluster-1, cluster-2). In the characteristics of the surface temperature and the heat wave days, the surface temperature was the highest in the urban area, but heat wave days were the highest in the rural area. As a result of analyzing the heat wave characteristics according to the spatial type of the distribution area of elderly population, cluster-2 with the largest area in agricultural areas was highest at 15.95 days, and cluster-3 with a large area in urbanized types was the lowest at 9.41 days and 9.18 days. In other words, the elderly population living in rural areas is more exposed to heat waves than the elderly population living in urban areas, and the damage is expected to increase. The results of this study could be used as basic data to prepare various policy measures for effective management and prevention of vulnerable areas in summer.

• Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.2829-2840
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• 2018

The random variable with an arbitrary value or more is called semi-continuous variable or zero-inflated one in case that its boundary value is more frequently observed than expected. This means the boundary value is likely to be practically observed more than it should be theoretically under certain probability distribution. When the distribution considered is continuous, the variable is defined as semi-continuous and when one of discrete distribution is assumed for the variable, we regard it as zero-inflated. In this study, we introduce the two-part model, which consists of one part for modelling the binary response and the other part for modelling the variable greater than the boundary value. Especially, the zero-inflated regression models are explained by using Poisson distribution and negative binomial distribution. In real data analysis, we employ the zero-inflated regression models to estimate the number of days under extreme heat-wave circumstances during the last 10 years in South Korea. Based on the estimation results, we create prediction maps for the estimated number of days under heat-wave advisory and heat-wave warning by using the universal kriging, which is one of the spatial prediction methods.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.21 no.spc
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• pp.123-133
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• 2019

This study analyzed the surface temperature mitigation effect of wetlands during cold waves (below -12℃ from January to February) and heat waves (above 33℃ from July to August) in 2018. We used Terra/Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Daytime and Nighttime Land Surface Temperature (LST) product, and the maximum and minimum air temperature observed at 86 stations of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). For the cold wave analysis, the LST of Terra MODIS nighttime was the highest at forest area with -12.7℃, followed by upland crop and wetland areas of -12.9℃ and -13.0℃ respectively. The urban area showed the lowest value of -14.4℃. During the heat wave, the urban area was the highest with + 34.6℃ in Aqua MODIS LST daytime. The wetland area was + 33.0℃ showing - 1.6℃ decrease comparing with urban area.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.76-91
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• 2016

The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of spatial characteristics, such as land cover and topography, on heat wave days from the city of Milyang, which has recently drawn attention for its heat wave problems. The number of heat wave days was calculated utilizing RCP-based South Korea climate data from 2000 to 2010. Land cover types were reclassified into urban area, agricultural area, forest area, water, and grassland using 2000, 2005, and 2010 land cover data constructed by the Ministry of Environment. Topographical features were analyzed by topographic position index (TPI) using a digital elevation model (DEM) with 30 m spatial resolution. The results show that the number of heat wave days was 31.4 days in 2000, which was the highest, followed by 26.9 days in 2008, 24.2 days in 2001, and 24.0 days in 2010. The heat wave distribution was relatively higher in agricultural areas, valleys, and rural areas. The topography of Milyang contains more mountainous slope (51.6%) than flat (19.7%), while large-scale valleys (12.2%) are distributed across some of the western region. Correlation analysis between heat wave and spatial characteristics showed that the correlation between forest area land cover and number of heat wave days was negative (-0.109), indicating that heat wave can be mitigated. Topographically, flat areas and heat wave showed a positive correlation (0.305). These results provide important insights for urban planning and environmental management for understanding the impact of land development and topographic change on heat wave.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.89-113
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• 2023

This study aimed to identify heat wave vulnerable areas and discuss spatial typology and policy directions through spatial coincidence analysis of heat wave damage. By utilizing the climate change vulnerability assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Spatial Statistics Comparison Analysis, this study examined cities, counties, and districts in South Korea for five years (2015-2019), including 2018, when the heat wave was most extreme. It was determined that the number of heat wave days (exposure) was the most impactful among various factors for heat wave vulnerability. Sensitivity and adaptive capacity to heat waves were found to vary according to regional characteristics. The relationship between heat wave vulnerability and damage was categorized into four types through spatial coherence. Hot to Hot and Cold to Cold types have a positive relationship between vulnerability and damage, while Hot to Cold and Cold to Hot types have a negative relationship. The findings suggest that since different types of regions have distinct characteristics and conditions, policies and research for improvement should be directed to address each region separately. This study may be used as basic data for establishing heat-related policies in the future, as it categorizes regions by considering both heat vulnerability and damage and examines the direction of response by type.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.20 no.5
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• pp.525-535
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• 2020

This study aims to evaluate the economic value of the heat wave watch/warning (HW/W) forecast provided by the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) for the public sector. Local govermenments of Korea currently use the HW/W forecasts as a major input variable to determine the preparative requisite level for reducing potential damage by extreme heat events. To assess the value of the HW/W, which is not a marketable commodity, a decision-making model taking into account the cost and loss was established. The 'cost' variable was defined as the heat wave countermeasures budget for Seoul and Busan in 2016, and the 'loss' variable was set as the amount of health insurance claims for those 65 and older obtained from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service. Using this model, the value of the HW/W in 2016 was calculated as KRW 4,133M and KRW1,090M for Seoul and Busan, respectively. In addition, if the KMA reduces the False Alarm of the HW/W by a single instance, the value will be increased by KRW 76.6M and KRW 16.8M for the two cities. The results of this study are useful in quantitatively estimation of the value of the HW/W forthe public sector.