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http://dx.doi.org/10.5392/JKCA.2020.20.05.525

Evaluating Economic Value of Heat Wave Watch/Warning Information in Seoul and Busan in 2016: Focused on a Cost of Heat Wave Action Plan and Sample of Patients  

Kim, In-Gyum (국립기상과학원 미래전략연구팀)
Lee, Seung-Wook (국립기상과학원 미래전략연구팀)
Kim, Hye-min (국립기상과학원 미래전략연구팀)
Lee, Dae-Geun (국립기상과학원 미래전략연구팀)
Publication Information
The Journal of the Korea Contents Association / v.20, no.5, 2020 , pp. 525-535 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study aims to evaluate the economic value of the heat wave watch/warning (HW/W) forecast provided by the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) for the public sector. Local govermenments of Korea currently use the HW/W forecasts as a major input variable to determine the preparative requisite level for reducing potential damage by extreme heat events. To assess the value of the HW/W, which is not a marketable commodity, a decision-making model taking into account the cost and loss was established. The 'cost' variable was defined as the heat wave countermeasures budget for Seoul and Busan in 2016, and the 'loss' variable was set as the amount of health insurance claims for those 65 and older obtained from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service. Using this model, the value of the HW/W in 2016 was calculated as KRW 4,133M and KRW1,090M for Seoul and Busan, respectively. In addition, if the KMA reduces the False Alarm of the HW/W by a single instance, the value will be increased by KRW 76.6M and KRW 16.8M for the two cities. The results of this study are useful in quantitatively estimation of the value of the HW/W forthe public sector.
Keywords
Heat Wave Watch/Warning; Economic Value; Decision-Making Model; Cost-Loss Model;
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