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A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

Antecedents of Manufacturer's Private Label Program Engagement : A Focus on Strategic Market Management Perspective (제조업체 Private Labels 도입의 선행요인 : 전략적 시장관리 관점을 중심으로)

  • Lim, Chae-Un;Yi, Ho-Taek
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.65-86
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    • 2012
  • The $20^{th}$ century was the era of manufacturer brands which built higher brand equity for consumers. Consumers moved from generic products of inconsistent quality produced by local factories in the $19^{th}$ century to branded products from global manufacturers and manufacturer brands reached consumers through distributors and retailers. Retailers were relatively small compared to their largest suppliers. However, sometime in the 1970s, things began to slowly change as retailers started to develop their own national chains and began international expansion, and consolidation of the retail industry from mom-and-pop stores to global players was well under way (Kumar and Steenkamp 2007, p.2) In South Korea, since the middle of the 1990s, the bulking up of retailers that started then has changed the balance of power between manufacturers and retailers. Retailer private labels, generally referred to as own labels, store brands, distributors own private-label, home brand or own label brand have also been performing strongly in every single local market (Bushman 1993; De Wulf et al. 2005). Private labels now account for one out of every five items sold every day in U.S. supermarkets, drug chains, and mass merchandisers (Kumar and Steenkamp 2007), and the market share in Western Europe is even larger (Euromonitor 2007). In the UK, grocery market share of private labels grew from 39% of sales in 2008 to 41% in 2010 (Marian 2010). Planet Retail (2007, p.1) recently concluded that "[PLs] are set for accelerated growth, with the majority of the world's leading grocers increasing their own label penetration." Private labels have gained wide attention both in the academic literature and popular business press and there is a glowing academic research to the perspective of manufacturers and retailers. Empirical research on private labels has mainly studies the factors explaining private labels market shares across product categories and/or retail chains (Dahr and Hoch 1997; Hoch and Banerji, 1993), factors influencing the private labels proneness of consumers (Baltas and Doyle 1998; Burton et al. 1998; Richardson et al. 1996) and factors how to react brand manufacturers towards PLs (Dunne and Narasimhan 1999; Hoch 1996; Quelch and Harding 1996; Verhoef et al. 2000). Nevertheless, empirical research on factors influencing the production in terms of a manufacturer-retailer is rather anecdotal than theory-based. The objective of this paper is to bridge the gap in these two types of research and explore the factors which influence on manufacturer's private label production based on two competing theories: S-C-P (Structure - Conduct - Performance) paradigm and resource-based theory. In order to do so, the authors used in-depth interview with marketing managers, reviewed retail press and research and presents the conceptual framework that integrates the major determinants of private labels production. From a manufacturer's perspective, supplying private labels often starts on a strategic basis. When a manufacturer engages in private labels, the manufacturer does not have to spend on advertising, retailer promotions or maintain a dedicated sales force. Moreover, if a manufacturer has weak marketing capabilities, the manufacturer can make use of retailer's marketing capability to produce private labels and lessen its marketing cost and increases its profit margin. Figure 1. is the theoretical framework based on a strategic market management perspective, integrated concept of both S-C-P paradigm and resource-based theory. The model includes one mediate variable, marketing capabilities, and the other moderate variable, competitive intensity. Manufacturer's national brand reputation, firm's marketing investment, and product portfolio, which are hypothesized to positively affected manufacturer's marketing capabilities. Then, marketing capabilities has negatively effected on private label production. Moderating effects of competitive intensity are hypothesized on the relationship between marketing capabilities and private label production. To verify the proposed research model and hypotheses, data were collected from 192 manufacturers (212 responses) who are producing private labels in South Korea. Cronbach's alpha test, explanatory / comfirmatory factor analysis, and correlation analysis were employed to validate hypotheses. The following results were drawing using structural equation modeling and all hypotheses are supported. Findings indicate that manufacturer's private label production is strongly related to its marketing capabilities. Consumer marketing capabilities, in turn, is directly connected with the 3 strategic factors (e.g., marketing investment, manufacturer's national brand reputation, and product portfolio). It is moderated by competitive intensity between marketing capabilities and private label production. In conclusion, this research may be the first study to investigate the reasons manufacturers engage in private labels based on two competing theoretic views, S-C-P paradigm and resource-based theory. The private label phenomenon has received growing attention by marketing scholars. In many industries, private labels represent formidable competition to manufacturer brands and manufacturers have a dilemma with selling to as well as competing with their retailers. The current study suggests key factors when manufacturers consider engaging in private label production.

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Geology of Athabasca Oil Sands in Canada (캐나다 아사바스카 오일샌드 지질특성)

  • Kwon, Yi-Kwon
    • The Korean Journal of Petroleum Geology
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2008
  • As conventional oil and gas reservoirs become depleted, interests for oil sands has rapidly increased in the last decade. Oil sands are mixture of bitumen, water, and host sediments of sand and clay. Most oil sand is unconsolidated sand that is held together by bitumen. Bitumen has hydrocarbon in situ viscosity of >10,000 centipoises (cP) at reservoir condition and has API gravity between $8-14^{\circ}$. The largest oil sand deposits are in Alberta and Saskatchewan, Canada. The reverves are approximated at 1.7 trillion barrels of initial oil-in-place and 173 billion barrels of remaining established reserves. Alberta has a number of oil sands deposits which are grouped into three oil sand development areas - the Athabasca, Cold Lake, and Peace River, with the largest current bitumen production from Athabasca. Principal oil sands deposits consist of the McMurray Fm and Wabiskaw Mbr in Athabasca area, the Gething and Bluesky formations in Peace River area, and relatively thin multi-reservoir deposits of McMurray, Clearwater, and Grand Rapid formations in Cold Lake area. The reservoir sediments were deposited in the foreland basin (Western Canada Sedimentary Basin) formed by collision between the Pacific and North America plates and the subsequent thrusting movements in the Mesozoic. The deposits are underlain by basement rocks of Paleozoic carbonates with highly variable topography. The oil sands deposits were formed during the Early Cretaceous transgression which occurred along the Cretaceous Interior Seaway in North America. The oil-sands-hosting McMurray and Wabiskaw deposits in the Athabasca area consist of the lower fluvial and the upper estuarine-offshore sediments, reflecting the broad and overall transgression. The deposits are characterized by facies heterogeneity of channelized reservoir sands and non-reservoir muds. Main reservoir bodies of the McMurray Formation are fluvial and estuarine channel-point bar complexes which are interbedded with fine-grained deposits formed in floodplain, tidal flat, and estuarine bay. The Wabiskaw deposits (basal member of the Clearwater Formation) commonly comprise sheet-shaped offshore muds and sands, but occasionally show deep-incision into the McMurray deposits, forming channelized reservoir sand bodies of oil sands. In Canada, bitumen of oil sands deposits is produced by surface mining or in-situ thermal recovery processes. Bitumen sands recovered by surface mining are changed into synthetic crude oil through extraction and upgrading processes. On the other hand, bitumen produced by in-situ thermal recovery is transported to refinery only through bitumen blending process. The in-situ thermal recovery technology is represented by Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage and Cyclic Steam Stimulation. These technologies are based on steam injection into bitumen sand reservoirs for increase in reservoir in-situ temperature and in bitumen mobility. In oil sands reservoirs, efficiency for steam propagation is controlled mainly by reservoir geology. Accordingly, understanding of geological factors and characteristics of oil sands reservoir deposits is prerequisite for well-designed development planning and effective bitumen production. As significant geological factors and characteristics in oil sands reservoir deposits, this study suggests (1) pay of bitumen sands and connectivity, (2) bitumen content and saturation, (3) geologic structure, (4) distribution of mud baffles and plugs, (5) thickness and lateral continuity of mud interbeds, (6) distribution of water-saturated sands, (7) distribution of gas-saturated sands, (8) direction of lateral accretion of point bar, (9) distribution of diagenetic layers and nodules, and (10) texture and fabric change within reservoir sand body.

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Assessment Study on Educational Programs for the Gifted Students in Mathematics (영재학급에서의 수학영재프로그램 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jung-Hyun;Whang, Woo-Hyung
    • Communications of Mathematical Education
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.235-257
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    • 2010
  • Contemporary belief is that the creative talented can create new knowledge and lead national development, so lots of countries in the world have interest in Gifted Education. As we well know, U.S.A., England, Russia, Germany, Australia, Israel, and Singapore enforce related laws in Gifted Education to offer Gifted Classes, and our government has also created an Improvement Act in January, 2000 and Enforcement Ordinance for Gifted Improvement Act was also announced in April, 2002. Through this initiation Gifted Education can be possible. Enforcement Ordinance was revised in October, 2008. The main purpose of this revision was to expand the opportunity of Gifted Education to students with special education needs. One of these programs is, the opportunity of Gifted Education to be offered to lots of the Gifted by establishing Special Classes at each school. Also, it is important that the quality of Gifted Education should be combined with the expansion of opportunity for the Gifted. Social opinion is that it will be reckless only to expand the opportunity for the Gifted Education, therefore, assessment on the Teaching and Learning Program for the Gifted is indispensible. In this study, 3 middle schools were selected for the Teaching and Learning Programs in mathematics. Each 1st Grade was reviewed and analyzed through comparative tables between Regular and Gifted Education Programs. Also reviewed was the content of what should be taught, and programs were evaluated on assessment standards which were revised and modified from the present teaching and learning programs in mathematics. Below, research issues were set up to assess the formation of content areas and appropriateness for Teaching and Learning Programs for the Gifted in mathematics. A. Is the formation of special class content areas complying with the 7th national curriculum? 1. Which content areas of regular curriculum is applied in this program? 2. Among Enrichment and Selection in Curriculum for the Gifted, which one is applied in this programs? 3. Are the content areas organized and performed properly? B. Are the Programs for the Gifted appropriate? 1. Are the Educational goals of the Programs aligned with that of Gifted Education in mathematics? 2. Does the content of each program reflect characteristics of mathematical Gifted students and express their mathematical talents? 3. Are Teaching and Learning models and methods diverse enough to express their talents? 4. Can the assessment on each program reflect the Learning goals and content, and enhance Gifted students' thinking ability? The conclusions are as follows: First, the best contents to be taught to the mathematical Gifted were found to be the Numeration, Arithmetic, Geometry, Measurement, Probability, Statistics, Letter and Expression. Also, Enrichment area and Selection area within the curriculum for the Gifted were offered in many ways so that their Giftedness could be fully enhanced. Second, the educational goals of Teaching and Learning Programs for the mathematical Gifted students were in accordance with the directions of mathematical education and philosophy. Also, it reflected that their research ability was successful in reaching the educational goals of improving creativity, thinking ability, problem-solving ability, all of which are required in the set curriculum. In order to accomplish the goals, visualization, symbolization, phasing and exploring strategies were used effectively. Many different of lecturing types, cooperative learning, discovery learning were applied to accomplish the Teaching and Learning model goals. For Teaching and Learning activities, various strategies and models were used to express the students' talents. These activities included experiments, exploration, application, estimation, guess, discussion (conjecture and refutation) reconsideration and so on. There were no mention to the students about evaluation and paper exams. While the program activities were being performed, educational goals and assessment methods were reflected, that is, products, performance assessment, and portfolio were mainly used rather than just paper assessment.

'Yongyudam of Hamyang', the Significance and Value as a Traditional Scenic Place ('함양 용유담(咸陽 龍遊潭)', 전래명승으로서의 의의와 가치 구명)

  • Rho, Jae-hyun
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.47 no.1
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    • pp.82-101
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study was to survey and analyze the origin story and the legends associated with Yongyudam(龍遊潭, Dragon Creek), its scenic and spatial description in Climbing Writings(遊山記: Yusangi Notes), its geographical and geological features, its surrounding remains and letters chiseled on the rocks through the field study and the study on literatures associated with it so to identify its significance and value and then to ensure justification on preservation of Yongyudam scenic site. Conclusions of this study are as follow. As the traditional scenic place 'Geumdae-Jiri(金臺智異)' representing Hamyang-gun(咸陽郡) depicts Mount Cheonwangbong and 'Yongyudong Village(龍遊洞)', ancient maps and literatures have positioned Yongyudam as the center of Eomcheon-river Creek as well as the representing scenic site of Yongyudong Village. Core images in the spatial awareness of Yongyudam described in our ancestors' Climbing Writings Notes on Jirisan Mount are 'geographical and scenic peculiarity associated with swimming dragons', 'potholes in various shapes and sizes scattered on rocks', 'loud sound generated by swirling from shoals' and 'the scenic metaphor from the dragon legend', which have led scenic features of Yongyudam scenic site. In addition, significant scenic metaphors from legends such as 'Nine Dragons and Ascetic Majeog' and 'Kasaya Fish' as well as 'the Holy Place of Dragon God', the rain calling magic god have descended not only as the very nature of Yongyudam scenic site but also the catalyst deepening its mystic and place nature. On the other hand, Jangguso Place(杖?所, Place of Scholars) in the vicinity of Yongyudam was the place of resting and amusement for scholars from Yeongnam Province, to name a few, Kim Il-son, Cho Sik, Jung Yeo-chang and Kang Dae-su, where they experienced and recognized Jirisan Mount as the scenic living place. Letters Carved on the rocks at Jangguso Place are memorial tributes and monumental signs. Around Yongyudam, there are 3 stairs, letters chiseled on the rocks and the water rock artificially built to collect clean water, which are traditional scenic remains detectable of territoriality as the ritual place. In addition, The letters on the rock at Yongyudong-mun(龍遊洞門) discovered for the first time by this study are the sign promoting Yongyudam as the place of splendid landscape. The laconism, 'It is the Greatest Water in Jirisan Mount(方丈第一山水)' on a rock expresses the pride of Yongyudam as the representing scenic place of Mount Jirisan. Other than those, standing rocks such as Simjindae Rock, Yeong-gwidae Rock and Ganghwadae Rock show the sign that they are used as amusement and gathering places for ancestor scholars, which add significance to Yongyudam. By this study, it was possible to verify that Yongyudam in Mount Jirisan is not simply 'the scenic place in the tangible reality' but also has seamlessly inherited as the traditional scenic attraction spiritualized by overlapped historical and cultural values. Yongyudam, as the combined heritage by itself, shows that it is the product of the place nature as well as unique ensemble of cultural scenic attraction inherited through long history based on natural scenery. It is certain that not only the place value but also geographical, geological, historical and cultural values of Yongyudam are the essence of traditional scenic attraction, which should not be disparaged or damaged by whatever political or economic interests and logics.

The Innovation Ecosystem and Implications of the Netherlands. (네덜란드의 혁신클러스터정책과 시사점)

  • Kim, Young-woo
    • Journal of Venture Innovation
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.107-127
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    • 2022
  • Global challenges such as the corona pandemic, climate change and the war-on-tech ensure that the demand who the technologies of the future develops and monitors prominently for will be on the agenda. Development of, and applications in, agrifood, biotech, high-tech, medtech, quantum, AI and photonics are the basis of the future earning capacity of the Netherlands and contribute to solving societal challenges, close to home and worldwide. To be like the Netherlands and Europe a strategic position in the to obtain knowledge and innovation chain, and with it our autonomy in relation to from China and the United States insurance, clear choices are needed. Brainport Eindhoven: Building on Philips' knowledge base, there is create an innovative ecosystem where more than 7,000 companies in the High-tech Systems & Materials (HTSM) collaborate on new technologies, future earning potential and international value chains. Nearly 20,000 private R&D employees work in 5 regional high-end campuses and for companies such as ASML, NXP, DAF, Prodrive Technologies, Lightyear and many others. Brainport Eindhoven has a internationally leading position in the field of system engineering, semicon, micro and nanoelectronics, AI, integrated photonics and additive manufacturing. What is being developed in Brainport leads to the growth of the manufacturing industry far beyond the region thanks to chain cooperation between large companies and SMEs. South-Holland: The South Holland ecosystem includes companies as KPN, Shell, DSM and Janssen Pharmaceutical, large and innovative SMEs and leading educational and knowledge institutions that have more than Invest €3.3 billion in R&D. Bearing Cores are formed by the top campuses of Leiden and Delft, good for more than 40,000 innovative jobs, the port-industrial complex (logistics & energy), the manufacturing industry cluster on maritime and aerospace and the horticultural cluster in the Westland. South Holland trains thematically key technologies such as biotech, quantum technology and AI. Twente: The green, technological top region of Twente has a long tradition of collaboration in triple helix bandage. Technological innovations from Twente offer worldwide solutions for the large social issues. Work is in progress to key technologies such as AI, photonics, robotics and nanotechnology. New technology is applied in sectors such as medtech, the manufacturing industry, agriculture and circular value chains, such as textiles and construction. Being for Twente start-ups and SMEs of great importance to the jobs of tomorrow. Connect these companies technology from Twente with knowledge regions and OEMs, at home and abroad. Wageningen in FoodValley: Wageningen Campus is a global agri-food magnet for startups and corporates by the national accelerator StartLife and student incubator StartHub. FoodvalleyNL also connects with an ambitious 2030 programme, the versatile ecosystem regional, national and international - including through the WEF European food innovation hub. The campus offers guests and the 3,000 private R&D put in an interesting programming science, innovation and social dialogue around the challenges in agro production, food processing, biobased/circular, climate and biodiversity. The Netherlands succeeded in industrializing in logistics countries, but it is striving for sustainable growth by creating an innovative ecosystem through a regional industry-academic research model. In particular, the Brainport Cluster, centered on the high-tech industry, pursues regional innovation and is opening a new horizon for existing industry-academic models. Brainport is a state-of-the-art forward base that leads the innovation ecosystem of Dutch manufacturing. The history of ports in the Netherlands is transforming from a logistics-oriented port symbolized by Rotterdam into a "port of digital knowledge" centered on Brainport. On the basis of this, it can be seen that the industry-academic cluster model linking the central government's vision to create an innovative ecosystem and the specialized industry in the region serves as the biggest stepping stone. The Netherlands' innovation policy is expected to be more faithful to its role as Europe's "digital gateway" through regional development centered on the innovation cluster ecosystem and investment in job creation and new industries.

The Advancement of Underwriting Skill by Selective Risk Acceptance (보험Risk 세분화를 통한 언더라이팅 기법 선진화 방안)

  • Lee, Chan-Hee
    • The Journal of the Korean life insurance medical association
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    • v.24
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    • pp.49-78
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    • 2005
  • Ⅰ. 연구(硏究) 배경(背景) 및 목적(目的) o 우리나라 보험시장의 세대가입율은 86%로 보험시장 성숙기에 진입하였으며 기존의 전통적인 전업채널에서 방카슈랑스의 도입, 온라인전문보험사의 출현, TM 영업의 성장세 等멀티채널로 진행되고 있음 o LTC(장기간병), CI(치명적질환), 실손의료보험 등(等)선 진형 건강상품의 잇따른 출시로 보험리스크 관리측면에서 언더라이팅의 대비가 절실한 시점임 o 상품과 마케팅 等언더라이팅 측면에서 매우 밀접한 영역의 변화에 발맞추어 언더라이팅의 인수기법의 선진화가 시급히 요구되는 상황하에서 위험을 적절히 분류하고 평가하는 선진적 언더라이팅 기법 구축이 필수 적임 o 궁극적으로 고객의 다양한 보장니드 충족과 상품, 마케팅, 언더라이팅의 경쟁력 강화를 통한 보험사의 종합이익 극대화에 기여할 수 있는 방안을 모색하고자 함 Ⅱ. 선진보험시장(先進保險市場)Risk 세분화사례(細分化事例) 1. 환경적위험(環境的危險)에 따른 보험료(保險料) 차등(差等) (1) 위험직업 보험료 할증 o 미국, 유럽등(等) 대부분의 선진시장에서는 가입당시 피보험자의 직업위험도에 따라 보험료를 차등 적용중(中)임 o 가입하는 보장급부에 따라 직업 분류방법 및 할증방식도 상이하며 일반사망과 재해사망,납입면제, DI에 대해서 별도의 방법을 사용함 o 할증적용은 표준위험율의 일정배수를 적용하여 할증 보험료를 산출하거나, 가입금액당 일정한 추가보험료를 적용하고 있음 - 광부의 경우 재해사망 가입시 표준위험율의 300% 적용하며, 일반사망 가입시 $1,000당 $2.95 할증보험료 부가 (2) 위험취미 보험료 할증 o 취미와 관련 사고의 지속적 다발로 취미활동도 위험요소로 인식되어 보험료를 차등 적용중(中)임 o 할증보험료는 보험가입금액당 일정비율로 부가(가입 금액과 무관)하며, 신종레포츠 등(等)일부 위험취미는 통계의 부족으로 언더라이터가 할증율 결정하여 적용함 - 패러글라이딩 년(年)$26{\sim}50$회(回) 취미생활의 경우 가입금액 $1,000당 재해사망 $2, DI보험 8$ 할증보험료 부가 o 보험료 할증과는 별도로 위험취미에 대한 부담보를 적용함. 위험취미 활동으로 인한 보험사고 발생시 사망을 포함한 모든 급부에 대한 보장을 부(不)담보로 인수함. (3) 위험지역 거주/ 여행 보험료 할증 o 피보험자가 거주하고 있는 특정국가의 임시 혹은 영구적 거주시 기후위험, 거주지역의 위생과 의료수준, 여행위험, 전쟁과 폭동위험 등(等)을 고려하여 평가 o 일반사망, 재해사망 등(等)보장급부별로 할증보험료 부가 또는 거절 o 할증보험료는 보험全기간에 대해 동일하게 적용 - 러시아의 경우 가입금액 $1,000당 일반사망은 2$의 할증보험료 부가, 재해사망은 거절 (4) 기타 위험도에 대한 보험료 차등 o 비행관련 위험은 세가지로 분류(항공운송기, 개인비행, 군사비행), 청약서, 추가질문서, 진단서, 비행이력 정보를 바탕으로 할증보험료를 부가함 - 농약살포비행기조종사의 경우 가입금액 $1,000당 일반사망 6$의 할증보험료 부가, 재해사망은 거절 o 미국, 일본등(等)서는 교통사고나 교통위반 관련 기록을 활용하여 무(無)사고운전자에 대해 보험료 할인(우량체 위험요소로 활용) 2. 신체적위험도(身體的危險度)에 따른 보험료차등(保險料差等) (1) 표준미달체 보험료 할증 1) 총위험지수 500(초과위험지수 400)까지 인수 o 300이하는 25점단위, 300점 초과는 50점 단위로 13단계로 구분하여 할증보험료를 적용중(中)임 2) 삭감법과 할증법을 동시 적용 o 보험금 삭감부분만큼 할증보험료가 감소하는 효과가 있어 청약자에게 선택의 기회를 제공할수 있으며 고(高)위험 피보험자에게 유용함 3) 특정암에 대한 기왕력자에 대해 단기(Temporary)할증 적용 o 질병성향에 따라 가입후 $1{\sim}5$년간 할증보험료를 부가하고 보험료 할증 기간이 경과한 후에는 표준체보험료를 부가함 4) 할증보험료 반환옵션(Return of the extra premium)의 적용 o 보험계약이 유지중(中)이며, 일정기간 생존시 할증보험료가 반환됨 (2) 표준미달체 급부증액(Enhanced annuity) o 영국에서는 표준미달체를 대상으로 연금급부를 증가시킨 증액형 연금(Enhanced annuity) 상품을 개발 판매중(中)임 o 흡연, 직업, 병력 등(等)다양한 신체적, 환경적 위험도에 따라 표준체에 비해 증액연금을 차등 지급함 (3) 우량 피보험체 가격 세분화 o 미국시장에서는 $8{\sim}14$개 의적, 비(非)의적 위험요소에 대한 평가기준에 따라 표준체를 최대 8개 Class로 분류하여 할인보험료를 차등 적용 - 기왕력, 혈압, 가족력, 흡연, BMI, 콜레스테롤, 운전, 위험취미, 거주지, 비행력, 음주/마약 등(等) o 할인율은 회사, Class, 가입기준에 따라 상이(최대75%)하며, 가입연령은 최저 $16{\sim}20$세, 최대 $65{\sim}75$세, 최저보험금액은 10만달러(HIV검사가 필요한 최저 금액) o 일본시장에서는 $3{\sim}4$개 위험요소에 따라 $3{\sim}4$개 Class로 분류 우량체 할인중(中)임 o 유럽시장에서는 영국 등(等)일부시장에서만 비(非)흡연할인 또는 우량체할인 적용 Ⅲ. 국내보험시장(國內保險市場) 현황(現況)및 문제점(問題點) 1. 환경적위험도(環境的危險度)에 따른 가입한도제한(加入限度制限) (1) 위험직업 보험가입 제한 o 업계공동의 직업별 표준위험등급에 따라 각 보험사 자체적으로 위험등급별 가입한도를 설정 운영중(中)임. 비(非)위험직과의 형평성, 고(高)위험직업 보장 한계, 수익구조 불안정화 등(等)문제점을 내포하고 있음 - 광부의 경우 위험1급 적용으로 사망 최대 1억(億), 입원 1일(日) 2만원까지 제한 o 금융감독원이 2002년(年)7월(月)위험등급별 위험지수를 참조 위험율로 인가하였으나, 비위험직은 70%, 위험직은 200% 수준으로 산정되어 현실적 적용이 어려움 (2) 위험취미 보험가입 제한 o 해당취미의 직업종사자에 준(準)하여 직업위험등급을 적용하여 가입 한도를 제한하고 있음. 추가질문서를 활용하여 자격증 유무, 동호회 가입등(等)에 대한 세부정보를 입수하지 않음 - 패러글라이딩의 경우 위험2급을 적용, 사망보장 최대 2 억(億)까지 제한 (3) 거주지역/ 해외여행 보험가입 제한 o 각(各)보험사별로 지역적 특성상 사고재해 다발 지역에 대해 보험가입을 제한하고 있음 - 강원, 충청 일부지역 상해보험 가입불가 - 전북, 태백 일부지역 입원급여금 1일(日)2만원이내 o 해외여행을 포함한 해외체류에 대해서는 일정한 가입 요건을 정하여 운영중(中)이며, 가입한도 설정 보험가입을 제한하거나 재해집중보장 상품에 대해 거절함 - 러시아의 경우 단기체류는 위험1급 및 상해보험 가입 불가, 장기 체류는 거절처리함 2. 신체적위험도(身體的危險度)에 따른 인수차별화(引受差別化) (1) 표준미달체 인수방법 o 체증성, 항상성 위험에 대한 초과위험지수를 보험금삭감법으로 전환 사망보험에 적용(최대 5년(年))하여 5년(年)이후 보험 Risk노출 심각 o 보험료 할증은 일부 회사에서 주(主)보험 중심으로 사용중(中)이며, 총위험지수 300(8단계)까지 인수 - 주(主)보험 할증시 특약은 가입 불가하며, 암 기왕력자는 대부분 거절 o 신체부위 39가지, 질병 5가지에 대해 부담보 적용(입원, 수술 등(等)생존급부에 부담보) (2) 비(非)흡연/ 우량체 보험료 할인 o 1999년(年)최초 도입 이래 $3{\sim}4$개의 위험요소로 1개 Class 운영중(中)임 S생보사의 경우 비(非)흡연우량체, 비(非)흡연표준체의 2개 Class 운영 o 보험료 할인율은 회사, 상품에 따라 상이하며 최대 22%(영업보험료기준)임. 흡연여부는 뇨스틱을 활용 코티닌테스트를 실시함 o 우량체 판매는 신계약의 $2{\sim}15%$수준(회사의 정책에 따라 상이) Ⅳ. 언더라이팅 기법(技法) 선진화(先進化) 방안(方案) 1. 직업위험도별 보험료 차등 적용 o 생 손보 직업위험등급 일원화와 연계하여 3개등급으로 위험지수개편, 비위험직 기준으로 보험요율 차별적용 2. 위험취미에 대한 부담보 적용 o 해당취미를 원인으로 보험사고(사망포함) 발생시 부담보 제도 도입 3. 표준미달체 인수기법 선진화를 통한 인수범위 대폭 확대 o 보험료 할증법 적용 확대를 통한 Risk 헷지로 총위험지수 $300{\rightarrow}500$으로 확대(거절건 최소화) 4. 보험료 할증법 보험금 삭감 병행 적용 o 삭감기간을 적용한 보험료 할증방식 개발, 고객에게 선택권 제공 5. 기한부 보험료할증 부가 o 위암, 갑상선암 등(等)특정암의 성향에 따라 위험도가 높은 가입초기에 평준할증보험료를 적용하여 인수 6. 보험료 할증법 부가특약 확대 적용, 부담보 병행 사용 o 정기특약 등(等)사망관련 특약에 할증법 확대, 생존급부 특약은 부담보 7. 표준체 고객 세분화 확대 o 콜레스테롤, HDL 등(等)위험평가요소 확대를 통한 Class 세분화 Ⅴ. 기대효과(期待效果) 1. 고(高)위험직종사자, 위험취미자, 표준미달체에 대한 보험가입 문호개방 2. 보험계약자간 형평성 제고 및 다양한 고객의 보장니드에 부응 3. 상품판매 확대 및 Risk헷지를 통한 수입보험료 증대 및 사차익 개선 4. 본격적인 가격경쟁에 대비한 보험사 체질 개선 5. 회사 이미지 제고 및 진단 거부감 해소, 포트폴리오 약화 방지 Ⅵ. 결론(結論) o 종래의 소극적이고 일률적인 인수기법에서 탈피하여 피보험자를 다양한 측면에서 위험평가하여 적정 보험료 부가와 합리적 가입조건을 제시하는 적절한 위험평가 수단을 도입하고, o 언더라이팅 인수기법의 선진화와 함께 언더라이팅 인력의 전문화, 정보입수 및 시스템 인프라의 구축 등이 병행함으로써, o 보험사의 사차손익 관리측면에서 뿐만 아니라 보험시장 개방 및 급변하는 보험환경에 대비한 한국 생보언더라이팅 경쟁력 강화 및 언더라이터의 글로벌화에도 크게 기여할 것임.

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Studies on the Consumptine Use of Irrigated Water in Paddy Fields During the Growing of Rice Plants(III) (벼생유기간중의 논에서의 분석소비에 관한 연구(II))

  • 민병섭
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.1775-1782
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    • 1969
  • The results of the study on the consumptine use of irrigated water in paddy fields during the growing season of rice plants are summarized as follows. 1. Transpiration and evaporation from water surface. 1) Amount of transpiration of rice plant increases gradually after transplantation and suddenly increases in the head swelling period and reaches the peak between the end of the head swelling poriod and early period of heading and flowering. (the sixth period for early maturing variety, the seventh period for medium or late maturing varieties), then it decreases gradually after that, for early, medium and late maturing varieties. 2) In the transpiration of rice plants there is hardly any difference among varieties up to the fifth period, but the early maturing variety is the most vigorous in the sixth period, and the late maturing variety is more vigorous than others continuously after the seventh period. 3) The amount of transpiration of the sixth period for early maturing variety of the seventh period for medium and late maturing variety in which transpiration is the most vigorous, is 15% or 16% of the total amount of transpiration through all periods. 4) Transpiration of rice plants must be determined by using transpiration intensity as the standard coefficient of computation of amount of transpiration, because it originates in the physiological action.(Table 7) 5) Transpiration ratio of rice plants is approximately 450 to 480 6) Equations which are able to compute amount of transpiration of each variety up th the heading-flowering peried, in which the amount of transpiration of rice plants is the maximum in this study are as follows: Early maturing variety ; Y=0.658+1.088X Medium maturing variety ; Y=0.780+1.050X Late maturing variety ; Y=0.646+1.091X Y=amount of transpiration ; X=number of period. 7) As we know from figure 1 and 2, correlation between the amount evaporation from water surface in paddy fields and amount of transpiration shows high negative. 8) It is possible to calculate the amount of evaporation from the water surface in the paddy field for varieties used in this study on the base of ratio of it to amount of evaporation by atmometer(Table 11) and Table 10. Also the amount of evaporation from the water surface in the paddy field is to be computed by the following equations until the period in which it is the minimum quantity the sixth period for early maturing variety and the seventh period for medium or late maturing varieties. Early maturing variety ; Y=4.67-0.58X Medium maturing variety ; Y=4.70-0.59X Late maturing variety ; Y=4.71-0.59X Y=amount of evaporation from water surface in the paddy field X=number of period. 9) Changes in the amount of evapo-transpiration of each growing period have the same tendency as transpiration, and the maximum quantity of early maturing variety is in the sixth period and medium or late maturing varieties are in the seventh period. 10) The amount of evapo-transpiration can be calculated on the base of the evapo-transpiration intensity (Table 14) and Tablet 12, for varieties used in this study. Also, it is possible to compute it according to the following equations with in the period of maximum quantity. Early maturing variety ; Y=5.36+0.503X Medium maturing variety ; Y=5.41+0.456X Late maturing variety ; Y=5.80+0.494X Y=amount of evapo-transpiration. X=number of period. 11) Ratios of the total amount of evapo-transpiration to the total amount of evaporation by atmometer through all growing periods, are 1.23 for early maturing variety, 1.25 for medium maturing variety, 1.27 for late maturing variety, respectively. 12) Only air temperature shows high correlation in relation between amount of evapo-transpiration and climatic conditions from the viewpoint of Korean climatic conditions through all growing periods of rice plants. 2. Amount of percolation 1) The amount of percolation for computation of planning water requirment ought to depend on water holding dates. 3. Available rainfall 1) The available rainfall and its coefficient of each period during the growing season of paddy fields are shown in Table 8. 2) The ratio (available coefficient) of available rainfall to the amount of rainfall during the growing season of paddy fields seems to be from 65% to 75% as the standard in Korea. 3) Available rainfall during the growing season of paddy fields in the common year is estimated to be about 550 millimeters. 4. Effects to be influenced upon percolation by transpiration of rice plants. 1) The stronger absorbtive action is, the more the amount of percolation decreases, because absorbtive action of rice plant roots influence upon percolation(Table 21, Table 22) 2) In case of planting of rice plants, there are several entirely different changes in the amount of percolation in the forenoon, at night and in the afternoon during the growing season, that is, is the morning and at night, the amount of percolation increases gradually after transplantation to the peak in the end of July or the early part of August (wast or soil temperature is the highest), and it decreases gradually after that, neverthless, in the afternoon, it decreases gradually after transplantation to be at the minimum in the middle of August, and it increases gradually after that. 3) In spite of the increasing amount of transpiration, the amount of daytime percolation decreases gadually after transplantation and appears to suddenly decrease about head swelling dates or heading-flowering period, but it begins to increase suddenly at the end of August again. 4) Changs of amount of percolation during all growing periods show some variable phenomena, that is, amount of percolation decreases after the end of July, and it increases in end August again, also it decreases after that once more. This phenomena may be influenced complexly from water or soil temperature(night time and forenoon) as absorbtive action of rice plant roots. 5) Correlation between the amount of daytime percolation and the amount of transpiration shows high negative, amount of night percolation is influenced by water or soil temperature, but there is little no influence by transpiration. It is estimated that the amount of a daily percolation is more influenced by of other causes than transpiration. 6) Correlation between the amount of night percoe, lation and water or soil temp tureshows high positive, but there is not any correlation between the amount of forenoon percolation or afternoon percolation and water of soil temperature. 7) There is high positive correlation which is r=+0.8382 between the amount of daily percolation of planting pot of rice plant and amount and amount of daily percolation of non-planting pot. 8) The total amount of percolation through all growin. periods of rice plants may be influenced more from specific permeability of soil, water of soil temperature, and otheres than transpiration of rice plants.

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