• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.23 no.2
• /
• pp.107-122
• /
• 2017

Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
• /
• v.66 no.1
• /
• pp.16-36
• /
• 1984

It is very important in forestry to study the shear strength of weathered granitic soil, because the soil covers 66% of our country, and because the majority of land slides have been occured in the soil. In general, the causes of land slide can be classified both the external and internal factors. The external factors are known as vegetations, geography and climate, but internal factors are known as engineering properties originated from parent rocks and weathering. Soil engineering properties are controlled by the skeleton structure, texture, consistency, cohesion, permeability, water content, mineral components, porosity and density etc. of soils. And the effects of these internal factors on sliding down summarize as resistance, shear strength, against silding of soil mass. Shear strength basically depends upon effective stress, kinds of soils, density (void ratio), water content, the structure and arrangement of soil particles, among the properties. But these elements of shear strength work not all alone, but together. The purpose of this thesis is to clarify the characteristics of shear strength and the related elements, such as water content ($w_o$), void ratio($e_o$), dry density (${\gamma}_d$) and specific gravity ($G_s$), and the interrelationship among related elements in order to decide the dominant element chiefly influencing on shear strength in natural/undisturbed state of weathered granitic soil, in addition to the characteristics of soil hardness of weathered granitic soil and root distribution of Pinus rigida Mill and Pinus rigida ${\times}$ taeda planted in erosion-controlled lands. For the characteristics of shear strength of weathered granitic soil and the related elements of shear strength, three sites were selected from Kwangju district. The outlines of sampling sites in the district were: average specific gravity, 2.63 ~ 2.79; average natural water content, 24.3 ~ 28.3%; average dry density, $1.31{\sim}1.43g/cm^3$, average void ratio, 0.93 ~ 1.001 ; cohesion, $ 0.2{\sim}0.75kg/cm^2$ ; angle of internal friction, $29^{\circ}{\sim}45^{\circ}$ ; soil texture, SL. The shear strength of the soil in different sites was measured by a direct shear apparatus (type B; shear box size, $62.5{\times}20mm$; ${\sigma}$, $1.434kg/cm^2$; speed, 1/100mm/min.). For the related element analyses, water content was moderated through a series of drainage experiments with 4 levels of drainage period, specific gravity was measured by KS F 308, analysis of particle size distribution, by KS F 2302 and soil samples were dried at $110{\pm}5^{\circ}C$ for more than 12 hours in dry oven. Soil hardness represents physical properties, such as particle size distribution, porosity, bulk density and water content of soil, and test of the hardness by soil hardness tester is the simplest approach and totally indicative method to grasp the mechanical properties of soil. It is important to understand the mechanical properties of soil as well as the chemical in order to realize the fundamental phenomena in the growth and the distribution of tree roots. The writer intended to study the correlation between the soil hardness and the distribution of tree roots of Pinus rigida Mill. planted in 1966 and Pinus rigida ${\times}$ taeda in 199 to 1960 in the denuded forest lands with and after several erosion control works. The soil texture of the sites investigated was SL originated from weathered granitic soil. The former is situated at Py$\ddot{o}$ngchangri, Ky$\ddot{o}$m-my$\ddot{o}$n, Kogs$\ddot{o}$ng-gun, Ch$\ddot{o}$llanam-do (3.63 ha; slope, $17^{\circ}{\sim}41^{\circ}$ soil depth, thin or medium; humidity, dry or optimum; height, 5.66/3.73 ~ 7.63 m; D.B.H., 9.7/8.00 ~ 12.00 cm) and the Latter at changun-long Kwangju-shi (3.50 ha; slope, $12^{\circ}{\sim}23^{\circ}$; soil depth, thin; humidity, dry; height, 10.47/7.3 ~ 12.79 m; D.B.H., 16.94/14.3 ~ 19.4 cm).The sampling areas were 24quadrats ($10m{\times}10m$) in the former area and 12 in the latter expanding from summit to foot. Each sampling trees for hardness test and investigation of root distribution were selected by purposive selection and soil profiles of these trees were made at the downward distance of 50 cm from the trees, at each quadrat. Soil layers of the profile were separated by the distance of 10 cm from the surface (layer I, II, ... ...). Soil hardness was measured with Yamanaka soil hardness tester and indicated as indicated soil hardness at the different soil layers. The distribution of tree root number per unit area in different soil depth was investigated, and the relationship between the soil hardness and the number of tree roots was discussed. The results obtained from the experiments are summarized as follows. 1. Analyses of simple relationship between shear strength and elements of shear strength, water content ($w_o$), void ratio ($e_o$), dry density (${\gamma}_d$) and specific gravity ($G_s$). 1) Negative correlation coefficients were recognized between shear strength and water content. and shear strength and void ratio. 2) Positive correlation coefficients were recognized between shear strength and dry density. 3) The correlation coefficients between shear strength and specific gravity were not significant. 2. Analyses of partial and multiple correlation coefficients between shear strength and the related elements: 1) From the analyses of the partial correlation coefficients among water content ($x_1$), void ratio ($x_2$), and dry density ($x_3$), the direct effect of the water content on shear strength was the highest, and effect on shear strength was in order of void ratio and dry density. Similar trend was recognized from the results of multiple correlation coefficient analyses. 2) Multiple linear regression equations derived from two independent variables, water content ($x_1$ and dry density ($x_2$) were found to be ineffective in estimating shear strength ($\hat{Y}$). However, the simple linear regression equations with an independent variable, water content (x) were highly efficient to estimate shear strength ($\hat{Y}$) with relatively high fitness. 3. A relationship between soil hardness and the distribution of root number: 1) The soil hardness increased proportionally to the soil depth. Negative correlation coefficients were recognized between indicated soil hardness and the number of tree roots in both plantations. 2) The majority of tree roots of Pinus rigida Mill and Pinus rigida ${\times}$ taeda planted in erosion-controlled lands distributed at 20 cm deep from the surface. 3) Simple linear regression equations were derived from indicated hardness (x) and the number of tree roots (Y) to estimate root numbers in both plantations.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
• /
• v.18 no.4
• /
• pp.19-42
• /
• 2012

Consumer consumption patterns are shifting rapidly as buyers migrate from offline markets to e-commerce routes, such as shopping channels on TV and internet shopping malls. In the offline markets consumers go shopping, see the shopping items, and choose from them. Recently consumers tend towards buying at shopping sites free from time and place. However, as e-commerce markets continue to expand, customers are complaining that it is becoming a bigger hassle to shop online. In the online shopping, shoppers have very limited information on the products. The delivered products can be different from what they have wanted. This case results to purchase cancellation. Because these things happen frequently, they are likely to refer to the consumer reviews and companies should be concerned about consumer's voice. E-commerce is a very important marketing tool for suppliers. It can recommend products to customers and connect them directly with suppliers with just a click of a button. The recommender system is being studied in various ways. Some of the more prominent ones include recommendation based on best-seller and demographics, contents filtering, and collaborative filtering. However, these systems all share two weaknesses : they cannot recommend products to consumers on a personal level, and they cannot recommend products to new consumers with no buying history. To fix these problems, we can use the information which has been collected from the questionnaires about their demographics and preference ratings. But, consumers feel these questionnaires are a burden and are unlikely to provide correct information. This study investigates combining collaborative filtering with the centrality of social network analysis. This centrality measure provides the information to infer the preference of new consumers from the shopping history of existing and previous ones. While the past researches had focused on the existing consumers with similar shopping patterns, this study tried to improve the accuracy of recommendation with all shopping information, which included not only similar shopping patterns but also dissimilar ones. Data used in this study, Movie Lens' data, was made by Group Lens research Project Team at University of Minnesota to recommend movies with a collaborative filtering technique. This data was built from the questionnaires of 943 respondents which gave the information on the preference ratings on 1,684 movies. Total data of 100,000 was organized by time, with initial data of 50,000 being existing customers and the latter 50,000 being new customers. The proposed recommender system consists of three systems : [+] group recommender system, [-] group recommender system, and integrated recommender system. [+] group recommender system looks at customers with similar buying patterns as 'neighbors', whereas [-] group recommender system looks at customers with opposite buying patterns as 'contraries'. Integrated recommender system uses both of the aforementioned recommender systems to recommend movies that both recommender systems pick. The study of three systems allows us to find the most suitable recommender system that will optimize accuracy and customer satisfaction. Our analysis showed that integrated recommender system is the best solution among the three systems studied, followed by [-] group recommended system and [+] group recommender system. This result conforms to the intuition that the accuracy of recommendation can be improved using all the relevant information. We provided contour maps and graphs to easily compare the accuracy of each recommender system. Although we saw improvement on accuracy with the integrated recommender system, we must remember that this research is based on static data with no live customers. In other words, consumers did not see the movies actually recommended from the system. Also, this recommendation system may not work well with products other than movies. Thus, it is important to note that recommendation systems need particular calibration for specific product/customer types.

• Radiation Oncology Journal
• /
• v.22 no.3
• /
• pp.192-199
• /
• 2004

Purpose: To determine the patterns on evaluation and treatment in the patient with early breast cancer treated with conservative surgery and radiotherapy and to improve the radiotherapy techiniques, nationwide survey was peformed. Materials and Methods: A web-based database system for korean Patterns of Care Study (PCS) for 6 common cancers was developed. Two hundreds sixty-one randomly selected records of eligible patients treated between 1998$\~$1999 from 15 hospitals were reviewed. Results: The patients ages ranged from 24 to 85 years(median 45 years). Infiltrating ductal carcinoma was most common histologic type (88.9$\%$) followed by medullary carcinoma (4.2$\%$) and infiltrating lobular carcinoma (1.5$\%$). Pathologic T stage by AJCC was T1 in 59.7$\%$ of the casses, T2 in 29.5$\%$ of the cases, Tis in 8.8$\%$ of the cases. Axillary lymph node dissection was peformed I\in 91.2$\%$ of the cases and 69.7$\%$ were node negative. AJCC stage was 0 in 8.8$\%$ of the cases, stage I in 44.9$\%$ of the cases, stage IIa in 33.3$\%$ of the cases, and stage IIb in 8.4$\%$ of the cases. Estrogen and progesteron receptors were evaluated in 71.6$\%$, and 70.9$\%$ of the patients, respectively. Surgical methods of breast-conserving surgery was excision/lumpectomy in 37.2$\%$, wide excision in 11.5$\%$, quadrantectomy in 23$\%$ and partial mastectomy in 27.5$\%$ of the cases. A pathologically confirmed negative margin was obtained in 90.8$\%$ of the cases. Pathological margin was involved with tumor in 10 patients and margin was close (less than 2 mm) in 10 patients. All the patients except one recieved more than 90$\%$ of the planned radiotherapy dose. Radiotherapy volume was breast only In 88$\%$ of the cases, breast+supraclavicular fossa (SCL) in 5$\%$ of the cases, and breast+ SCL+ posterior axillary boost in 4.2%$\%$of the cases. Only one patient received isolated internal mammary lymph node irradiation. Used radiation beam was Co-60 in 8 cases, 4 MV X-ray in 115 cases, 6 MV X-ray in 125 cases, and 10 MV X-ray in 11 cases. The radiation dose to the whole breast was 45$\~$59.4 Gy (median 50.4) and boost dose was 8$\~$20 Gy (median 10 Gy). The total radiation dose delivered was 50.4$\~$70.4 Gy (median 60.4 Gy). Conclusion: There was no major deviation from current standard in the patterns of evaluation and treatment for the patients with early breast cancer treated with breast conservation method. Some varieties were identified in boost irradiation dose. Separate analysis for the datails of radiotherapy planning will be followed and the outcome of treatment is needed to evaluate the process.

• Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
• /
• v.42 no.4
• /
• pp.555-568
• /
• 1995

Background: It is most physiologic to measure the diffusing capacity of the lung by using oxygen, but it is so difficult to measure partial pressure of oxygen in the capillary blood of the lung that in clinical practice it is measured by using carbon monoxide, and single-breath diffusing capacity method is used most widely. However, since the process of withholding the breath for 10 seconds after inspiration to the total lung capacity is very hard to practice for patients who suffer from cough, dyspnea, etc, the intra-breath lung diffusing capacity method which requires a single exhalation of low-flow rate without such process was devised. In this study, we want to know whether or not there is any significant difference in the diffusing capacity of the lung measured by the single-breath and intra-breath methods, and if any, which factors have any influence. Methods: We chose randomly 73 persons without regarding specific disease, and after conducting 3 times the flow-volume curve test, we selected forced vital capacity(FVC), percent of predicted forced vital capacity, forced expiratory volume within 1 second($FEV_1$), percent of forced expiratory volume within 1 second, the ratio of forced expiratory volume within 1 second against forced vital capacity($FEV_1$/FVC) in test which the sum of FVC and $FEV_1$ is biggest. We measured the diffusing capacity of the lung 3 times in each of the single-breath and intra-breath methods at intervals of 5 minutes, and we evaluated which factors have any influence on the difference of the diffusing capacity of the lung between two methods[the mean values(ml/min/mmHg) of difference between two diffusing capacity measured by two methods] by means of the linear regression method, and obtained the following results: Results: 1) Intra-test reproducibility in the single-breath and intra-breath methods was excellent. 2) There was in general a good correlation between the diffusing capacity of the lung measured by a single-breath method and that measured by the intra-breath method, but there was a significant difference between values measured by both methods($1.01{\pm}0.35ml/min/mmHg$, p<0.01) 3) The difference between the diffusing capacity of the lung measured by both methods was not correlated to FVC, but was correlated to $FEV_1$, percent of $FEV_1$, $FEV_1$/FVC and the gradient of methane concentration which is an indicator of distribution of ventilation, and it was found as a result of the multiple regression test, that the effect of $FEV_1$/FVC was most strong(r=-0.4725, p<0.01) 4) In a graphic view of the difference of diffusing capacity measured by single-breath and intra-breath method and $FEV_1$/FVC, it was found that the former was divided into two groups in section where $FEV_1$/FVC is 50~60%, and that there was no significant difference between two methods in the section where $FEV_1$/FVC is equal or more than 60% ($0.05{\pm}0.24ml/min/mmHg$, p>0.1), but there was significant difference in the section, less than 60%($-4.5{\pm}0.34ml/min/mmHg$, p<0.01). 5. The diffusing capacity of the lung measured by the single-breath and intra-breath method was the same in value($24.3{\pm}0.68ml/min/mmHg$) within the normal range(2%/L) of the methane gas gradient, and there was no difference depending on the measuring method, but if the methane concentration gradients exceed 2%/L, the diffusing capacity of the lung measured by single-breath method became $15.0{\pm}0.44ml/min/mmHg$, and that measured by intra-breath method, $11.9{\pm}0.51ml/min/mmHg$, and there was a significant difference between them(p<0.01). Conclusion: Therefore, in case where $FEV_1$/FVC was less than 60%, the diffusing capacity of the lung measured by intra-breath method represented significantly lower value than that by single-breath method, and it was presumed to be caused largely by a defect of ventilation-distribution, but the possibility could not be excluded that the diffusing capacity of the lung might be overestimated in the single-breath method, or the actual reduction of the diffusing capacity of the lung appeared more sensitively in the intra-breath method.

• Journal of Korean Society of Archives and Records Management
• /
• v.1 no.1
• /
• pp.201-230
• /
• 2001

Conserving the recored cultural inheritance is actually the duty of all of us. Above all, the management and conservation of archives and documents is up to archivists who have technical knowledge about archival science. Archivists have to not only conserve archives and documents but also carry out classifying and appraising them in order to define them as current historic ones. The fundamental education about archival science is made up of history and law. Because Archive is the organisation which manage archives and documents produced by legal and administrative actions. Although there are still arguments about technical knowledge and degree archivists have to acquire, most of them prefer the studies related with history and emphasize legal studies to be the general boundary of archivits' ideology and trust. The training course about conservation of archives is conducted in about 9 National Archives of Torino, Milano, Venezia, Genova, Bologna, Parma, Roma, Napoli, Palermo. The training course in 19th was mostly based on the lectures of Phaleography, Diplomatics. There were not the education about archival science yet. Toward the end of 19th and 20th, people stressed the most basic subject in the training course of National Archive was not Phaleography and Diplomatics but archival science. The goal of archival science is to study the institution and organisation transferring archives and documents to Archive. And also it help archivists not wander about with ignorance of organisational and original procedures and divisions but know exactly theirs works. Like this, the studies on institution and organisation have got in the saddle as a branch of archival science since a few ten years. While archival science didn't evoke sympathy among people and experienced the tedious and difficult path in italy and other countries, Archive was managed by experts of other branches. As a result, there were a lot of faults in Archival Science. Specializing training course for Italian archivists came into being under the backdrop of Social Science Institute of Roma National University in 1925. The archival course of universities accomplished by the studies of history, law and economy. And such as Eugenio Casanova and Giorgio Cencetti were devoted archival science was abled to settle down in national archive. The training course for experts of 'archival science, 'Phaleography and Diplomatics' in National Archive of Bologna(Archivio di Stato di Bologna) is one of courses conducted in 17 National Archives in italy. This course is gratuitous and made up of 8 subjects(Archivistica, Paleografia, Diplomatica, Storia dell' Archivio, Notariato e documenti privati, istituzione medievale, istituzione moderna, istituzione contemporanea) students have to complete for two years. Students can receive the degree through passing twice written exam and once oral test. After department of Culture and education finally puts the marks of students, the chief Nationa Archive of Bologna confer the degree of 'archival science Phaleography and Diplomatics' on students passing the exams. This degree authenticates trainees' qualification which enables him to work at the archive in province, district and administrative capital city and archive of comunity and so on. Italian training course naturally leads archivists to keep in contact with valuable cultural inheritance through training in Archive. And it shows the intention to strengthen the affinity with each documents in the spot of archival management before training archivists. Also this is appraised as one of positive policies to conserve the local cultual inheritante in connection with the original qualitity of national archive with testify the history of each region. Traning course for archivist in Italy shows us the way how we have to prepare and proceed it. First, from producing documents to conserving than forever there has introduced 'original order that is to say a general rule to respect the first order given at the time producing documents'. Management of administrative documents is related consistently with one of historical documents. Second, the traning course for archivist is managing around 17 national archives. because italian national archive lay stress not or rducation of theory bus on train for archivest working in the first time of archival science. Third, diplomatics and phaleography for studies about historical document support archives. Forth, the studies on history id proceeding by cooperation between archivist and historian around archive. How our duties is non continuinf disputer who has to conserve and manage document and archives, but traing experts who having ability, vision and flexible thought, responsibility about archivals.