• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.99-110
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• 1998

본 연구에서는 인간의 판단과 유산한 구조를 갖는 퍼지근사추론모형(FARM)을 구축하여 교통수단 선택형태에 적용하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 먼저 근사추론모형의 이론적 배경을 살펴보고 버스와 지하철간의 수단선택 모형을 구축하였다. 입력변수로 버스와 지하철간의 총통행시간의 차이와 총통행비용의 차이를 선정하였으며 출력변수로 버스이용확률을 사용하였다. 각 변수에 대한 퍼지집합은 각각 5개씩의 언어적 인 표현으로 구성하였으며, 규칙은 총 25개로 설정하였다, 구축된모형의 현실적 타당성을 검토하기 위해 서 실제 조사자료와 비교하였다. 분석결과 본 연구에서 구축된 퍼지근사추론모형이 통행자들의 수단선택 행태를 현실적으로 설명하는 것으로 나타났다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.55-63
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• 2002

It has been known well that Traffic Conflict Technique(TCT) used to evaluate the safety of intersections in the case of shortage of traffic accidents data and surveying time. Because data for using in traffic conflict technique that is collected by trained surveyors, it is rely on the knowledge, experience and the characteristics of them. The data of surveying generate varying result. So, its variance must minimize and then it is considered of calculating in traffic conflict technique however obviously technique to minimize has not developed until now. So, this paper has a focus on the technical method to minimize the variance. For this, it applied the fuzzy reasoning theory to the existed traffic conflict technique that is the most comprehensive method in the country and then developed the new traffic conflict technique model. Fuzzy reasoning theory is a very appropriate method for minimizing the variance among surveyors because it can systematically calculate the uncertainty of surveyors by approximation reasoning structure. The result of analysis from pilot study, the new Procedure in this Paper minimized the variance by 53 Percentiles and it increased the value of conversion factor two times than the exited traffic conflict technique. The method proposed in this paper, it can be used for evaluating the safety of intersection, and before and after analysis of improving Project of black spots.