• Title/Summary/Keyword: 파괴확률

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Ship Collision Risk Assessment for Bridges (교량의 선박충돌위험도 평가)

  • Lee, Seong Lo;Bae, Yong Gwi
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.1A
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2006
  • An analysis of the annual frequency of collapse(AF) is performed for each bridge pier exposed to ship collision. From this analysis, the impact lateral resistance can be determined for each pier. The bridge pier impact resistance is selected using a probability-based analysis procedure in which the predicted annual frequency of bridge collapse, AF, from the ship collision risk assessment is compared to an acceptance criterion. The analysis procedure is an iterative process in which a trial impact resistance is selected for a bridge component and a computed AF is compared to the acceptance criterion, and revisions to the analysis variables are made as necessary to achieve compliance. The distribution of the AF acceptance criterion among the exposed piers is generally based on the designer's judgment. In this study, the acceptance criterion is allocated to each pier using allocation weights based on the previous predictions. To determine the design impact lateral resistance of bridge components such pylon and pier, the numerical analysis is performed iteratively with the analysis variable of impact resistance ratio of pylon to pier. The design impact lateral resistance can vary greatly among the components of the same bridge, depending upon the waterway geometry, available water depth, bridge geometry, and vessel traffic characteristics. More researches on the allocation model of AF and the determination of impact resistance are required.

An Improved Reliability-Based Design Optimization using Moving Least Squares Approximation (이동최소자승근사법을 이용한 개선된 신뢰도 기반 최적설계)

  • Kang, Soo-Chang;Koh, Hyun-Moo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.1A
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    • pp.45-52
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    • 2009
  • In conventional structural design, deterministic optimization which satisfies codified constraints is performed to ensure safety and maximize economical efficiency. However, uncertainties are inevitable due to the stochastic nature of structural materials and applied loads. Thus, deterministic optimization without considering these uncertainties could lead to unreliable design. Recently, there has been much research in reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) taking into consideration both the reliability and optimization. RBDO involves the evaluation of probabilistic constraint that can be estimated using the RIA (Reliability Index Approach) and the PMA(Performance Measure Approach). It is generally known that PMA is more stable and efficient than RIA. Despite the significant advancement in PMA, RBDO still requires large computation time for large-scale applications. In this paper, A new reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) method is presented to achieve the more stable and efficient algorithm. The idea of the new method is to integrate a response surface method (RSM) with PMA. For the approximation of a limit state equation, the moving least squares (MLS) method is used. Through a mathematical example and ten-bar truss problem, the proposed method shows better convergence and efficiency than other approaches.

Twenty-year Experience of Mitral Valve Replacement with the St. Jude Medical Mechanical Valve Prosthesis (St. Jude 기계 판막을 이용한 승모판막 치환술의 20년 장기성적)

  • Seo Yeon-Ho;Kim Kong-Soo;Jo Jung-Ku
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.39 no.7 s.264
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    • pp.527-533
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    • 2006
  • Background: A retrospective study was conducted to analyze the results of St. Jude Medical mitral valve replacement at the Chonbuk National University Hospital since the initial implant in May 1984. Material and Method: Between May of 1984 and December of 1996, 95 patients underwent MVR with the St. Jude Medical mechanical valve prosthesis at Department of Medical Science of Chonbuk National University Hospital and follow-up ended in May of 2004. Result: Age ranged from 19 to 69 years. Follow-up (mean${\pm}$standard deviation) averaged $10.6{\pm}4.2\;year$. Thirty-day operative mortality was 4.2% (4/95). Nine late deaths have occurred and actuarial survival was $90.5{\pm}3.0%,\;87.9{\pm}3.4%\;and\;83.2{\pm}4.6%$ at 5, 10 and 20 years, respectively. Probability of freedom from valve-rotated death was $95.5{\pm}2.1%,\;94.3{\pm}2.4%\;and\;91.0{\pm}3.9%$ at 5, 10 and 20 years, respectively. Seven patients have sustained thromboembolic events (1,05%/patient-year). Fifteen patients had anticoagulation related hemorrhage (3.56%/patient-year). There was no structural valve deterioration. Probability of freedom from all complications was $82.0{\pm}3.9%,\;71.3{\pm}4.8%\;and\;42.4{\pm}10.5%$ at 5, 10 and 20 years, respectively. Conclusion: We confirm the effective and excellent durability of the St. Jude Medical prosthesis in the mitral position with a low event rate at long-term follow-up. It also demonstrates the commonly encountered practical difficulty of adjusting the anti-coagulation protocol in patients with prosthetic mitral valves.