• Title/Summary/Keyword: 통계적 해석 모델 검증

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Combining CFD/FEM/BEM/SEA to Predict Interior Vehicle Wind Noise - Validation Case Hyundai BMT4 (자동차 유동기인 실내소음 예측을 위한 CFD/FEM/BEM/SEA 의 조합 및 검증 - 현대자동차 BMT4)

  • Blanchet, D.;Golota, A.;Almenar, R.;Lim, J.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2014.10a
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    • pp.563-564
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    • 2014
  • Recent developments in the prediction of the contribution of windnoise to the interior SPL have opened a realm of new possibilities in terms of i) how the convective and acoustic sources terms can be identified, ii) how the interaction between the source terms and the side glass can be described and finally iii) how the transfer path from the sources to the interior of the vehicle can be modelled. This work discusses several simulation methods that can be used to represent the physical phenomena involved such as CFD, FEM, BEM, FE/SEA Coupled and SEA. This work focuses on the validation of the wind noise source characterization method and the vibro-acoustic models on which the wind noise sources are applied in the framework of a benchmark proposed by Hyundai Motors Corporation.

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Analysis and Verification of Slope Disaster Hazard Using Infinite Slope Model and GIS (무한사면해석기법과 GIS를 이용한 사면 재해 위험성 분석 및 검증)

  • 박혁진;이사로;김정우
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.313-320
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    • 2003
  • Slope disaster is one of the repeated occurring geological disasters in rainy season resulting in about 23 human losses in Korea every year. The slope disaster, however, mainly depends on the spatial and climate properties. such as geology, geomorphology, and heavy rainfall, and, hence, the prediction or hazard analysis of the slope disaster is a difficult task. Therefore, GIS and various statistical methods are implemented for slope disaster analysis. In particular, GIS technique is widely used for the analysis because it effectively handles large amount of spatial data. The GIS technique. however, only considers the statistics between slope disaster occurrence and related factors, not the mechanism. Accordingly. an infinite slope model that mechanically considers the balance of forces applied to the slope is suggested here with GIS for slope disaster analysis. According to the research results, the infinite slope model has a possibility that can be utilized for landslide prediction and hazard evaluation since 87.5% of landslide occurrence areas have been predicted by this technique.

Development of MKDE-ebd for Estimation of Multivariate Probabilistic Distribution Functions (다변량 확률분포함수의 추정을 위한 MKDE-ebd 개발)

  • Kang, Young-Jin;Noh, Yoojeong;Lim, O-Kaung
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.55-63
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    • 2019
  • In engineering problems, many random variables have correlation, and the correlation of input random variables has a great influence on reliability analysis results of the mechanical systems. However, correlated variables are often treated as independent variables or modeled by specific parametric joint distributions due to difficulty in modeling joint distributions. Especially, when there are insufficient correlated data, it becomes more difficult to correctly model the joint distribution. In this study, multivariate kernel density estimation with bounded data is proposed to estimate various types of joint distributions with highly nonlinearity. Since it combines given data with bounded data, which are generated from confidence intervals of uniform distribution parameters for given data, it is less sensitive to data quality and number of data. Thus, it yields conservative statistical modeling and reliability analysis results, and its performance is verified through statistical simulation and engineering examples.

Exact Bit Error Rate Calculation of UWB-TH PPM Multiple Access Communication systems (UWB-TH PPM 다중 통신시스템의 정확한 비트 오율의 계산)

  • Park, Jang-Woo;Cho, Sung-Eon;Choi, Yong-Suk
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.1174-1181
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    • 2005
  • The exact bit error rate(BER) calculation of an UWB-TH PPM multiple access communication system, which is known to be suitable for the fast transmission of massive information data, is introduced. The statistic feature of the multiple access intereference (MAI) of the system is precisely modeled by the characteristic function technique. The concrete expression for the MAI allows the exact expression for BER to be derived. In addition, we propose the approximate expression for the BER which reveals superior accuracy to the expression from the previous Gaussian approximation of the MAI. The validity of the proposed expressions is confirmed from the comparison of proposed results with the results from Monte-Carlo simulation.

Damage Detection of Non-Ballasted Plate-Girder Railroad Bridge through Machine Learning Based on Static Strain Data (정적 변형률 데이터 기반 머신러닝에 의한 무도상 철도 판형교의 손상 탐지)

  • Moon, Taeuk;Shin, Soobong
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.206-216
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    • 2020
  • As the number of aging railway bridges in Korea increases, maintenance costs due to aging are increasing and continuous management is becoming more important. However, while the number of old facilities to be managed increases, there is a shortage of professional personnel capable of inspecting and diagnosing these old facilities. To solve these problems, this study presents an improved model that can detect Local damage to structures using machine learning techniques of AI technology. To construct a damage detection machine learning model, an analysis model of the bridge was set by referring to the design drawing of a non-ballasted plate-girder railroad bridge. Static strain data according to the damage scenario was extracted with the analysis model, and the Local damage index based on the reliability of the bridge was presented using statistical techniques. Damage was performed in a three-step process of identifying the damage existence, the damage location, and the damage severity. In the estimation of the damage severity, a linear regression model was additionally considered to detect random damage. Finally, the random damage location was estimated and verified using a machine learning-based damage detection classification learning model and a regression model.

Development of RVE Reconstruction Algorithm for SMC Multiscale Modeling (SMC 복합재료 멀티스케일 모델링을 위한 RVE 재구성 알고리즘 개발)

  • Lim, Hyoung Jun;Choi, Ho-Il;Yoon, Sang Jae;Lim, Sang Won;Choi, Chi Hoon;Yun, Gun Jin
    • Composites Research
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.70-75
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    • 2021
  • This paper presents a novel algorithm to reconstruct meso-scale representative volume elements (RVE), referring to experimentally observed features of Sheet Molding Compound (SMC) composites. Predicting anisotropic mechanical properties of SMC composites is challenging in the multiscale virtual test using finite element (FE) models. To this end, an SMC RVE modeler consisting of a series of image processing techniques, the novel reconstruction algorithm, and a FE mesh generator for the SMC composites are developed. First, micro-CT image processing is conducted to estimate probabilistic distributions of two critical features, such as fiber chip orientation and distribution that are highly related to mechanical performance. Second, a reconstruction algorithm for 3D fiber chip packing is developed in consideration of the overlapping effect between fiber chips. Third, the macro-scale behavior of the SMC is predicted by the multiscale analysis.

Prediction of Key Variables Affecting NBA Playoffs Advancement: Focusing on 3 Points and Turnover Features (미국 프로농구(NBA)의 플레이오프 진출에 영향을 미치는 주요 변수 예측: 3점과 턴오버 속성을 중심으로)

  • An, Sehwan;Kim, Youngmin
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.263-286
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    • 2022
  • This study acquires NBA statistical information for a total of 32 years from 1990 to 2022 using web crawling, observes variables of interest through exploratory data analysis, and generates related derived variables. Unused variables were removed through a purification process on the input data, and correlation analysis, t-test, and ANOVA were performed on the remaining variables. For the variable of interest, the difference in the mean between the groups that advanced to the playoffs and did not advance to the playoffs was tested, and then to compensate for this, the average difference between the three groups (higher/middle/lower) based on ranking was reconfirmed. Of the input data, only this year's season data was used as a test set, and 5-fold cross-validation was performed by dividing the training set and the validation set for model training. The overfitting problem was solved by comparing the cross-validation result and the final analysis result using the test set to confirm that there was no difference in the performance matrix. Because the quality level of the raw data is high and the statistical assumptions are satisfied, most of the models showed good results despite the small data set. This study not only predicts NBA game results or classifies whether or not to advance to the playoffs using machine learning, but also examines whether the variables of interest are included in the major variables with high importance by understanding the importance of input attribute. Through the visualization of SHAP value, it was possible to overcome the limitation that could not be interpreted only with the result of feature importance, and to compensate for the lack of consistency in the importance calculation in the process of entering/removing variables. It was found that a number of variables related to three points and errors classified as subjects of interest in this study were included in the major variables affecting advancing to the playoffs in the NBA. Although this study is similar in that it includes topics such as match results, playoffs, and championship predictions, which have been dealt with in the existing sports data analysis field, and comparatively analyzed several machine learning models for analysis, there is a difference in that the interest features are set in advance and statistically verified, so that it is compared with the machine learning analysis result. Also, it was differentiated from existing studies by presenting explanatory visualization results using SHAP, one of the XAI models.

Evaluation of ECMWF subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) hydrometeorological forecast across Australia (호주에서의 ECMWF 계절내-계절 수문기상 예측치 평가)

  • Jongmin Park
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2023.05a
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    • pp.268-268
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    • 2023
  • 전 지구적 급격한 기후변화로 인해 수문기상인자들의 비선형적 변동성이 발생함과 동시에 가뭄, 홍수와 같은 수재해의 발생빈도 및 강도가 증가하고 있는 추세이다. 이에 따라, 세계의 유수기관 (NASA, ESA 등)에서는 대기모형과 해양 모형의 결합 및 수치해석적 접근법을 활용하여 계절내-계절 (Subseasonal to seasonal; S2S) 예측치를 생산하여 제공하고 있다. 이에 따라, 본 연구에서는 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF)에서 산정되는 수문기상인자 (강수량, 증발산량 및 유출량)에 대한 정확도를 평가하고자 한다. 연구지역으로는 다양한 기후대 및 토지 피복으로 구성되어 있으며, El-Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Diapole (IOD)와 같은 기후 현상이 빈번히 발생하는 호주지역을 대상으로 연구를 수행하였다. ECMWF S2S 자료에 대한 통계적 검증은 1) 지점 기반 관측치와 더불어 2) 물수지 모델 기반 수문 추정치 (The Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape Model; AWRA-L)와 비교하였다. 연구 결과 S2S 강우 및 증발산량 산정치의 경우 비교적 짧은 예측기간(약 2주)에서 상대적으로 높은 상관관계 (R=0.5~0.6)와 낮은 편차 (강수량 = 0.10 mm/day, 증발산량 = 0.21 mm/day)를 나타내었다. 유출량의 경우, 강우 및 증발산량에 비해 상대적으로 낮은 정확도를 나타내었으며, 예측 기간이 길어짐에 따라 불확실성이 상당히 높아지는 것으로 확인되었다. 이는, S2S 계산과정에서 강우 및 증발산량 뿐만아니라 지표 유출로 도달하기 전까지의 수문기상인자들의 불확실성이 모두 모여 유출량의 불확실성이 높아진 것으로 확인할 수 있었다. 계절적 검증에서는, 강우 및 증발산량 모두 여름철에 높은 상관관계를 나타내었지만 불확실성은 상대적으로 큰 값을 나타내었다. 자세한 분석을 위해, 공간적인 불확실성을 분석해본 결과 ECMWF S2S가 매우 습윤하거나 건조한 지역에서 수문기상인자를 예측하는데 있어 한계성이 나타난 것을 확인하였다. 본 연구를 토대로, 추후 S2S 예측치에 대한 보정과 더불어 미래의 수재해 발생 위험도에 대한 정보를 획득하는데 적용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

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Development of the Structural Condition Evaluation Technique for Asphalt Pavements Using Falling Weight Deflectometer Deflections (Falling Weight Deflectometer 처짐값을 이욤한 아스팔트 포장체의 구조적 상태 평가기법 개발)

  • Son, Jong-Chul;Rhee, Suk-Keun;An, Deok-Soon;Park, Hee-Mun
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.8 no.4 s.30
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    • pp.115-124
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    • 2006
  • The objectives of this paper are to develop the structural condition evaluation technique using Falling Weight Deflectometer deflections and propose the structural condition criteria for asphalt pavements. To figure out correlation between surface deflections and critical pavement responses, the synthetic database has been established using the finite element pavement structural analysis program. A regression approach was adopted to develop the pavement response model that can be used to compute the stresses and strains within pavement structure using the FWD deflections. Based on the pavement response model, the procedure for assessing the structural condition of pavement layers was proposed in this study. To validate the condition evaluation procedure for asphalt pavements, the FWD test, dynamic cone penetrometer test, and repeated triaxial compression test were conducted on 11 sections of national highway and 8 sections of local road. Test results indicate that the tensile strain at the bottom of AC layer and AC elastic modulus were good indicators for estimating the stiffness characteristics of AC layer. For subbase layer, the BDI value and compressive strain on top of the subbase layer were appropriate to predict the structural capacity of subbase layer. The BCI value and compressive strain on top of the subgrade were found to be good indicators for evaluating the structural condition of the subgrade. The evaluation criteria for structural condition in asphalt pavements was also proposed in this paper.

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Development of a regressive prediction method of solute transport in rivers based on relation between breakthrough curve and travel distance (하천에서 농도곡선-유하거리 상관성 기반 회귀적 물질혼합 예측 기법)

  • Kim, Byunguk;Seo, Il Won
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.45-45
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    • 2022
  • 산업화에 따른 화학물질 사용량의 증가는 담수로의 유해화학물질 유출사고의 위험을 증가시키며, 이러한 사고는 하천수 수질과 수환경 생태계에 심각한 위해와 손상을 야기한다. 이러한 수질사고 발생시 신속 대응을 위해, 하천에 유입된 물질의 거동을 신속하게 예측하는 것이 필요하며 이 경우 1차원 추적모형이 주로 사용된다. 1차원 물질혼합 모형은 하천을 하나의 유선으로 보며, 복잡한 하천흐름의 시스템을 현상학적으로 해석하고, 오염물질의 이송 및 혼합 메카니즘을 모델 매개변수에 반영하여 모형화한다. 이러한 매개변수들은 직접적으로 측정하기 어려우며, 이론에 기반한 매개변수 산정 기법이 구축되지 않은 실정이다. 따라서 대부분의 연구에서는 추적자 실험을 실시하여 유한한 하천구간에서 추적자의 시간-농도곡선(Breakthrough curve, BTC)을 취득하고, 이를 통하여 대상 구간의 매개변수를 역산하는 최적화 기법에 의존하고 있다. 하지만, 모든 하천구간에 대하여 추적자 실험을 수행하여 데이터를 확보하는 것이 어렵기 때문에 최적화 기법의 적용성에 한계가 있다. 본 연구는 흐름정보가 제공되지 않은 미계측 하천구간에서 BTC를 신속하게 예측할 수 있는 회귀모형을 구축하는 것을 목표로 한다. 국내 하천에서 수행한 4회의 추적자 실험으로부터 취득한 28개 구간 케이스의 데이터에 대하여 농도곡선 전처리를 수행하고 14개의 통계적 특징을 추출하였으며, 계측된 흐름특성과의 상관관계를 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 대상 구간에서의 BTC의 변화가 추적자의 유하거리에 매우 높은 상관관계를 보였으며, 이를 이용하여 회귀모형을 제시하였다. 제안된 회귀모형을 적용하여 하류의 지점에서의 BTC를 예측하였으며, 1차원 이송-분산 방정식과 하천저장대모형을 활용한 예측결과와 비교하여 검증하였다. 그 결과, BTC의 변화특성을 활용한 회귀적 예측이 하천 지형 및 흐름의 변동성이 작은 구간에서 1차원 혼합모형들을 이용한 예측보다 더 높은 정확도를 보였으며, 이러한 장점은 장거리 예측에서 더 분명하게 나타났다.

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