• Title/Summary/Keyword: 통계적인 추론

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Concept of Trend Analysis of Hydrologic Extreme Variables and Nonstationary Frequency Analysis (극치수문자료의 경향성 분석 개념 및 비정상성 빈도해석)

  • Lee, Jeong-Ju;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.4B
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    • pp.389-397
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    • 2010
  • This study introduced a Bayesian based frequency analysis in which the statistical trend analysis for hydrologic extreme series is incorporated. The proposed model employed Gumbel extreme distribution to characterize extreme events and a fully coupled bayesian frequency model was finally utilized to estimate design rainfalls in Seoul. Posterior distributions of the model parameters in both Gumbel distribution and trend analysis were updated through Markov Chain Monte Carlo Simulation mainly utilizing Gibbs sampler. This study proposed a way to make use of nonstationary frequency model for dynamic risk analysis, and showed an increase of hydrologic risk with time varying probability density functions. The proposed study showed advantage in assessing statistical significance of parameters associated with trend analysis through statistical inference utilizing derived posterior distributions.

Assessment of statistical errors of articles published in the Journal of the Korean Academy of Prosthodontics: 2006 - 2010 (대한치과보철학회지에서 볼 수 있는 통계적 오류의 고찰(2006 - 2010))

  • Kang, Dong-Wan;Seo, Yunam;Oh, Nam-Sik;Lim, Hoi-Jeong
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
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    • v.50 no.4
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    • pp.258-270
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    • 2012
  • Purpose: Use of inappropriate statistical methods may lead to incorrect conclusions and a waste of valuable resources. The goal of this study was to assess the frequency and the types of several common statistical errors in the published articles of the Journal of the Korean Academy of Prosthodontics (JKAP) for a 5-year period. Materials and methods: Of 336 articles in the JKAP published from 2006 to 2010, 255 articles using statistics were reviewed and classified by statistical method and year. The frequency and types of the statistical methods were examined, and the statistical errors were evaluated by the appropriateness of the experimental design, assumption check, independent outcomes, proper sample size and suitable use of statistical method. Statistical guidelines were completed based on the appropriateness. Results: Of the 255 articles using statistics, 193 articles (75.9%) used inferential statistics and 153 articles used SPSS statistical software (60.0%). Of the articles using inferential statistics, the three most frequently used statistical methods were ANOVA (41.5%), t-test (20.0%), and the nonparametric method (16.9%). The average rate of statistical errors was 61.2 percent, similar to the rate reported by several studies completed for the medical journal. Conclusion: After the whole analysis of the difference among the groups, post-hoc tests for the pairwise comparisons are required. The optimal sample size calculation is an essential part of this study protocol. To minimize the occurrence of statistical errors, statistical guidelines were developed according to each statistical test procedure and will contribute to the academic improvement in the JKAP.

Functional Brain Mapping Using $H_2^{15}O$ Positron Emission Tomography ( I ): Statistical Parametric Mapping Method ($H_2^{15}O$ 양전자단층촬영술을 이용한 뇌기능 지도 작성(I): 통계적 파라메터 지도작성법)

  • Lee, Dong-Soo;Lee, Jae-Sung;Kim, Kyeong-Min;Chung, June-Key;Lee, Myung-Chul
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.225-237
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    • 1998
  • Purpose: We investigated the statistical methods to compose the functional brain map of human working memory and the principal factors that have an effect on the methods for localization. Materials and Methods: Repeated PET scans with successive four tasks, which consist of one control and three different activation tasks, were performed on six right-handed normal volunteers for 2 minutes after bolus injections of 925 MBq $H_2^{15}O$ at the intervals of 30 minutes. Image data were analyzed using SPM96 (Statistical Parametric Mapping) implemented with Matlab (Mathworks Inc., U.S.A.). Images from the same subject were spatially registered and were normalized using linear and nonlinear transformation methods. Significant difference between control and each activation state was estimated at every voxel based on the general linear model. Differences of global counts were removed using analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) with global activity as covariate. Using the mean and variance for each condition which was adjusted using ANCOVA, t-statistics was performed on every voxel To interpret the results more easily, t-values were transformed to the standard Gaussian distribution (Z-score). Results: All the subjects carried out the activation and control tests successfully. Average rate of correct answers was 95%. The numbers of activated blobs were 4 for verbal memory I, 9 for verbal memory II, 9 for visual memory, and 6 for conjunctive activation of these three tasks. The verbal working memory activates predominantly left-sided structures, and the visual memory activates the right hemisphere. Conclusion: We conclude that rCBF PET imaging and statistical parametric mapping method were useful in the localization of the brain regions for verbal and visual working memory.

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Meta-analysis of the Effects of Obesity Management Program for Children (국내 비만아동의 비만관리프로그램의 효과에 대한 메타분석)

  • Sung, Kyung-Suk;Yoon, Young-Mi;Kim, Eun-Joo
    • Child Health Nursing Research
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.262-269
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    • 2013
  • Purpose: The aims of this study is to analysis the effects of obesity management programs for children and to measure the differences in the effects by type and dependent variables in order to analyze the structures of the programs. Methods: Sixty-one peer-reviewed journals including child obesity and intervention studies published between 2000 and 2010 were included for meta-analysis. Effect size and statistics of homogeneity were by STAT 10.0. Results: A total of 61 studies were used in the analysis, and the effect size of the independent studies was determined to be -0.23 (95% CI, -0.32 ~ -0.15). Serum Leptin and Insulin were the big effect size among the studies that used dependent variables. The theses used in the research did not display publishing bias. Conclusion: Obesity management programs that have been confirmed to be effective need to be developed into regional protocols. A continuous control of obese children and research for effective intervention program are in need.

On the Plug-in Estimator and its Asymptotic Distribution Results for Vector-Valued Process Capability Index Cpmk (2차원 벡터 공정능력지수 Cpmk의 추정량과 극한분포 이론에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Joong-Jae;Park, Byoung-Sun
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.377-389
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    • 2011
  • A higher quality level is generally perceived by customers as improved performance by assigning a correspondingly higher satisfaction score. The third generation index $C_{pmk}$ is more powerful than two useful indices $C_p$ and $C_{pk}$ that have been widely used in six sigma industries to assess process performance. In actual manufacturing industries, process capability analysis often entails characterizing or assessing processes or products based on more than one engineering specification or quality characteristic. Since these characteristics are related, it is a risky undertaking to represent the variation of even a univariate characteristic by a single index. Therefore, the desirability of using vector-valued process capability index(PCI) arises quite naturally. In this paper, we consider more powerful vector-valued process capability index $C_{pmk}$ = ($C_{pmkx}$, $C_{pmky}$)$^t$ that consider the univariate process capability index $C_{pmk}$. First, we examine the process capability index $C_{pmk}$ and plug-in estimator $\hat{C}_{pmk}$. In addition, we derive its asymptotic distribution and variance-covariance matrix $V_{pmk}$ for the vector valued process capability index $C_{pmk}$. Under the assumption of bivariate normal distribution, we study asymptotic confidence regions of our vector-valued process capability index $C_{pmk}$ = ($C_{pmkx}$, $C_{pmky}$)$^t$.

Automatic TV Program Recommendation using LDA based Latent Topic Inference (LDA 기반 은닉 토픽 추론을 이용한 TV 프로그램 자동 추천)

  • Kim, Eun-Hui;Pyo, Shin-Jee;Kim, Mun-Churl
    • Journal of Broadcast Engineering
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.270-283
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    • 2012
  • With the advent of multi-channel TV, IPTV and smart TV services, excessive amounts of TV program contents become available at users' sides, which makes it very difficult for TV viewers to easily find and consume their preferred TV programs. Therefore, the service of automatic TV recommendation is an important issue for TV users for future intelligent TV services, which allows to improve access to their preferred TV contents. In this paper, we present a recommendation model based on statistical machine learning using a collaborative filtering concept by taking in account both public and personal preferences on TV program contents. For this, users' preference on TV programs is modeled as a latent topic variable using LDA (Latent Dirichlet Allocation) which is recently applied in various application domains. To apply LDA for TV recommendation appropriately, TV viewers's interested topics is regarded as latent topics in LDA, and asymmetric Dirichlet distribution is applied on the LDA which can reveal the diversity of the TV viewers' interests on topics based on the analysis of the real TV usage history data. The experimental results show that the proposed LDA based TV recommendation method yields average 66.5% with top 5 ranked TV programs in weekly recommendation, average 77.9% precision in bimonthly recommendation with top 5 ranked TV programs for the TV usage history data of similar taste user groups.

Exploring a Learning Progression for Eight Core Concepts of Middle School Science Using Constructed Response Items in the National Assessment of Educational Achievement (NAEA) (국가수준 학업성취도 평가의 서답형 문항을 이용한 중학교 과학 8개 핵심 개념에 대한 학습발달과정 탐색)

  • Lee, Kiyoung;Dong, Hyokwan;Choi, Wonho;Kwon, Gyeongpil;Lee, Inho;Kim, Yong-Jin
    • Journal of Science Education
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.382-404
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    • 2017
  • This study aims to explore a learning progression for eight core concepts of middle school science using constructed response items in the national assessment of educational achievement (NAEA). For this purpose, a total of 7,390 responses of the 9th graders on 8 constructed response items in NAEA conducted in 2015 were inputted by computer and the inputted answers were analyzed and classified into different levels. After completing this process, five levels were set for each construct and a construct map was created according to the levels. In this study, the construct map was written in a progression-based rubric format, which was used as a criterion for leveling the answers of all students. In addition, the Rasch model was applied to measure the scores and achievements of the respondents by means of statistical analysis to correlate the scores of the students with the achievement levels of the constructs. Lastly, a preliminary learning progression was created by revising the construct map reflecting the results of Rasch model application. This study was meaningful in that it explored the possibility of developing the learning process by using constructed response items in NAEA. However, the preliminary learning progression developed in this study is still hypothetical and inferential because it is not longitudinally traced to individual students. Therefore, it is necessary to continually revise and supplement through iterative research process.

Analysis of Environmental Effects for Linear Type Traits and Scoring Traits on Holstein Cows (Holstein 젖소의 선형심사형질과 등급형질에 대한 환경효과 분석)

  • 이득환;김은길
    • Journal of Animal Science and Technology
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    • v.48 no.6
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    • pp.767-776
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    • 2006
  • Corresponding author:Deukhwan Lee, Department of Animal Life Resources, Hankyong National Univ. Seokjeong-dong Anseong-si Gyeonggi-do, Rep. of Korea 456-749Tel: 031-670-5091, Fax: 031-676-5091, E-mail : dhlee@hknu.ac.krGeneral performance with including environmental and management effects on linear type traits in Holstein cows were investigated. 115,646 valid records measured from cows over 1 yrs of age by Korean Animal Improvement Association from 2000 to 2004 were used for this study. Farm, appraisal year-month, appraisal person should affect linear type and scoring traits. Most of type traits and scoring traits would be significantly affected by parity and lactation stage after absorbing farm-appraisal year-month-person effects. Otherwise, some traits such as traits related to udder would be affected by registration criteria. However, interval of appraisal time and milking time would not affect these traits. The scores related to udder, teat placement and foot angle would be positively related to parity. Final score would be optimized at cows of 2nd and 3rd parities. Dairy form, front teat placement, rear udder height, rear udder width and final score would show similar to pattern of lactation curve at lactation stage. Dairy capacity composite index would also show similar to lactation curve. This result would be indicated that more concise standardizing system for linear type scoring rules would be needed. Furthermore, correcting system for parity and lactation stage would be needed because this factor should affect physiological status, specially, udder status.

Pedagogical Significance and Students' Informal Knowledge of Sample and Sampling (표본 개념의 교육적 의의와 인식 특성 연구)

  • Lee Kyung Hwa;Ji Eun Jeung
    • Journal of Educational Research in Mathematics
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.177-196
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    • 2005
  • In the Korean curriculum, students learn the concept of sample, sampling and other concepts related to sample and sampling, when they have reached the 10th grade of high school. But before the 10th grade, they have an activity about data collection, data analysis and the formulation of conclusion. We then investigated and analyzed the informal knowledge of students before they receive formal instructions. The results enabled the identification of the maximum response rate for each question that each student agreed or disagreed with. In particular, it didn't agree with how students consider the characteristic of population in the process of sampling, and the students agreed on a sampling process without considering the characteristic of the population or the components that consist the population. It showed that 5th grade students didn't investigate the data connected with sampling, and didn't understand the validity of sample survey process. While, 6th grade students equally understood sample size, sampling process, the reliance of data acquired through sample survey that applied to the source of judgment. But in details, it revealed that student had a misconception, or stayed at a subjective judgment level. The significant point is that many high school students didn't adequately understood a sample size with sampling. Though statistics instruction has traditionally been delayed until upper secondary education, this inquiry convinced us that this delay is unnecessary.

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A Comparison of Help Network Structures and Changes between Pre-service Secondary Teachers and Pre-journalists (예비중등교사와 예비언론인의 도움 연결망 구조와 변화 비교)

  • Kim, Sung-Yeun;Park, Han Woo
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.335-344
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    • 2020
  • This study compared the structures and changes of help network between pre-service secondary teachers and pre-journalists who participated in the class related to network analysis to seek ways to activate a professional learning community. For this study, we used Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGM) based on ties as being interdependent and not conventional regression models requiring assumptions of independence between observations. The analysis subjects were 43 pre-service secondary teachers and 29 pre-journalists who responded both early and late in the help network survey. The main results were as follows. First, full models with network structural terms were better than simple models with no structural terms. Second, the effect of transitivity was not statistically significant in the pre-service secondary teachers' network. However, it was statistically significant in the pre-journalists' network. Third, there were effects of reciprocity, indegree popularity, and outdegree activity in the early help network of pre-service secondary teachers. On the contrary, there were only the positive effects of reciprocity and the negative effect of outdegree activity in the late network. Finally, this study demonstrated the possibility in educational fields' application of network structural effects and provided limitations and directions for future research.