• Title/Summary/Keyword: 통계데이터

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Development of New Variables Affecting Movie Success and Prediction of Weekly Box Office Using Them Based on Machine Learning (영화 흥행에 영향을 미치는 새로운 변수 개발과 이를 이용한 머신러닝 기반의 주간 박스오피스 예측)

  • Song, Junga;Choi, Keunho;Kim, Gunwoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.67-83
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    • 2018
  • The Korean film industry with significant increase every year exceeded the number of cumulative audiences of 200 million people in 2013 finally. However, starting from 2015 the Korean film industry entered a period of low growth and experienced a negative growth after all in 2016. To overcome such difficulty, stakeholders like production company, distribution company, multiplex have attempted to maximize the market returns using strategies of predicting change of market and of responding to such market change immediately. Since a film is classified as one of experiential products, it is not easy to predict a box office record and the initial number of audiences before the film is released. And also, the number of audiences fluctuates with a variety of factors after the film is released. So, the production company and distribution company try to be guaranteed the number of screens at the opining time of a newly released by multiplex chains. However, the multiplex chains tend to open the screening schedule during only a week and then determine the number of screening of the forthcoming week based on the box office record and the evaluation of audiences. Many previous researches have conducted to deal with the prediction of box office records of films. In the early stage, the researches attempted to identify factors affecting the box office record. And nowadays, many studies have tried to apply various analytic techniques to the factors identified previously in order to improve the accuracy of prediction and to explain the effect of each factor instead of identifying new factors affecting the box office record. However, most of previous researches have limitations in that they used the total number of audiences from the opening to the end as a target variable, and this makes it difficult to predict and respond to the demand of market which changes dynamically. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to predict the weekly number of audiences of a newly released film so that the stakeholder can flexibly and elastically respond to the change of the number of audiences in the film. To that end, we considered the factors used in the previous studies affecting box office and developed new factors not used in previous studies such as the order of opening of movies, dynamics of sales. Along with the comprehensive factors, we used the machine learning method such as Random Forest, Multi Layer Perception, Support Vector Machine, and Naive Bays, to predict the number of cumulative visitors from the first week after a film release to the third week. At the point of the first and the second week, we predicted the cumulative number of visitors of the forthcoming week for a released film. And at the point of the third week, we predict the total number of visitors of the film. In addition, we predicted the total number of cumulative visitors also at the point of the both first week and second week using the same factors. As a result, we found the accuracy of predicting the number of visitors at the forthcoming week was higher than that of predicting the total number of them in all of three weeks, and also the accuracy of the Random Forest was the highest among the machine learning methods we used. This study has implications in that this study 1) considered various factors comprehensively which affect the box office record and merely addressed by other previous researches such as the weekly rating of audiences after release, the weekly rank of the film after release, and the weekly sales share after release, and 2) tried to predict and respond to the demand of market which changes dynamically by suggesting models which predicts the weekly number of audiences of newly released films so that the stakeholders can flexibly and elastically respond to the change of the number of audiences in the film.

The Characteristics and Performances of Manufacturing SMEs that Utilize Public Information Support Infrastructure (공공 정보지원 인프라 활용한 제조 중소기업의 특징과 성과에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Keun-Hwan;Kwon, Taehoon;Jun, Seung-pyo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.1-33
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    • 2019
  • The small and medium sized enterprises (hereinafter SMEs) are already at a competitive disadvantaged when compared to large companies with more abundant resources. Manufacturing SMEs not only need a lot of information needed for new product development for sustainable growth and survival, but also seek networking to overcome the limitations of resources, but they are faced with limitations due to their size limitations. In a new era in which connectivity increases the complexity and uncertainty of the business environment, SMEs are increasingly urged to find information and solve networking problems. In order to solve these problems, the government funded research institutes plays an important role and duty to solve the information asymmetry problem of SMEs. The purpose of this study is to identify the differentiating characteristics of SMEs that utilize the public information support infrastructure provided by SMEs to enhance the innovation capacity of SMEs, and how they contribute to corporate performance. We argue that we need an infrastructure for providing information support to SMEs as part of this effort to strengthen of the role of government funded institutions; in this study, we specifically identify the target of such a policy and furthermore empirically demonstrate the effects of such policy-based efforts. Our goal is to help establish the strategies for building the information supporting infrastructure. To achieve this purpose, we first classified the characteristics of SMEs that have been found to utilize the information supporting infrastructure provided by government funded institutions. This allows us to verify whether selection bias appears in the analyzed group, which helps us clarify the interpretative limits of our study results. Next, we performed mediator and moderator effect analysis for multiple variables to analyze the process through which the use of information supporting infrastructure led to an improvement in external networking capabilities and resulted in enhancing product competitiveness. This analysis helps identify the key factors we should focus on when offering indirect support to SMEs through the information supporting infrastructure, which in turn helps us more efficiently manage research related to SME supporting policies implemented by government funded institutions. The results of this study showed the following. First, SMEs that used the information supporting infrastructure were found to have a significant difference in size in comparison to domestic R&D SMEs, but on the other hand, there was no significant difference in the cluster analysis that considered various variables. Based on these findings, we confirmed that SMEs that use the information supporting infrastructure are superior in size, and had a relatively higher distribution of companies that transact to a greater degree with large companies, when compared to the SMEs composing the general group of SMEs. Also, we found that companies that already receive support from the information infrastructure have a high concentration of companies that need collaboration with government funded institution. Secondly, among the SMEs that use the information supporting infrastructure, we found that increasing external networking capabilities contributed to enhancing product competitiveness, and while this was no the effect of direct assistance, we also found that indirect contributions were made by increasing the open marketing capabilities: in other words, this was the result of an indirect-only mediator effect. Also, the number of times the company received additional support in this process through mentoring related to information utilization was found to have a mediated moderator effect on improving external networking capabilities and in turn strengthening product competitiveness. The results of this study provide several insights that will help establish policies. KISTI's information support infrastructure may lead to the conclusion that marketing is already well underway, but it intentionally supports groups that enable to achieve good performance. As a result, the government should provide clear priorities whether to support the companies in the underdevelopment or to aid better performance. Through our research, we have identified how public information infrastructure contributes to product competitiveness. Here, we can draw some policy implications. First, the public information support infrastructure should have the capability to enhance the ability to interact with or to find the expert that provides required information. Second, if the utilization of public information support (online) infrastructure is effective, it is not necessary to continuously provide informational mentoring, which is a parallel offline support. Rather, offline support such as mentoring should be used as an appropriate device for abnormal symptom monitoring. Third, it is required that SMEs should improve their ability to utilize, because the effect of enhancing networking capacity through public information support infrastructure and enhancing product competitiveness through such infrastructure appears in most types of companies rather than in specific SMEs.

Effects of Shoulder Muscle Strength on Terminal Range by Humeral Head Retroversion (상완골 후경각이 가동역에 따른 견관절 근력에 미치는 영향)

  • Park, Si-Young;Lee, Dong-Jun
    • Journal of Life Science
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.549-554
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    • 2010
  • Increased external rotation and decreased internal rotation have been noted to occur progressively in the throwing shoulders of baseball pitchers. The purpose of this study was to provide descriptive data for terminal range eccentric antagonist/concentric agonist shoulder muscle strength in collegiate baseball pitchers with humeral head retroversion diagnosed through MRI. The dominant and non-dominant shoulders of 9 asymptomatic baseball pitchers were tested through a range of 20 degrees of external rotation to 90 degrees of internal rotation using the Biodex system 3 isokinetic dynamometer at speeds of $90^{\circ}/s$ and $180^{\circ}/s$. Differences between the dominant and non-dominant shoulders were assessed using the paired samples t-test. Total range of motion, measured at $90^{\circ}$ of glenohumeral abduction, was $180.1^{\circ}$ for dominant shoulders and $183.7^{\circ}$ for non-dominant shoulders. Humeral head retroversion measured $47.6{\pm}6.1^{\circ}$ in dominant and $37.8{\pm}5.3^{\circ}$ in non-dominant extremities. The mean internal rotator concentric contraction (IR-Con) showed a significant difference compared to $31.5{\pm}5.1$ (Nm) in dominant and $38.7{\pm}5.2$ (Nm) in non-dominant shoulders at $180^{\circ}/s$ (p<0.05). The mean external rotator eccentric contraction (ER-Ecc) showed a significant difference compared to $20.3{\pm}4.7$ (Nm) in dominant and $25.1{\pm}3.7$ (Nm) in non-dominant shoulders at $90^{\circ}/s$ (p<0.05). There is a pattern of increased external rotation and decreased internal rotation in the dominant extremity that significantly correlates with an increase in humeral retroversion.

Relationship between Low Back Pain and Lumbar Paraspinal Muscles Fat Change in MRI (편측 요통을 호소하는 환자에 있어서 척추 주위 근육의 지방량과 통증과의 관계)

  • Kim, Ha-Neul;Kim, Kyoung-Hun;Kim, Joo-Won;Jin, Eun-Seok;Ha, In-Hyuk;Koh, Dong-Hyun;Hong, Soon-Sung;Kwon, Hyeok-Joon
    • Journal of Korean Medicine Rehabilitation
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.135-143
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    • 2009
  • Objectives : Low back pain(LBP) is a common disabling disease in clinical practice and loss of working hours due to this condition is huge. The aim of this study was to determine if there was an association between fat deposit of paraspinal muscles as observed on MRI scans in patients presenting with unilateral LBP. Methods : 24 patients who visiting our hospital with a clinical presentation of unilateral LBP were recruited to the study. Patients were between 20 and 30 years and had a history of unilateral LBP within 12 months. After MRI scaning, the images were saved in DICOM file format for Picture Archiving and Communication System(PACS). The percentage of fat infiltrated area was measured using a pseudocoloring technique. Data were analyzed comparing the fat deposits of the muscles on the symptomatic and asymptomatic sides. Paired t-test was used to find the difference between the measurements of fat tissue in individual patients. Results : The amount of fat in the symptomatic side was $7.6{\pm}4.51%$, asymptomatic side was $6.7{\pm}4.29%$. There were increases, statistically significant, in the fat changes of the paraspinal muscles at the L4-5 disc level(P <0.05). Also, men were likely than women to have more fat deposit in symptomatic side(men $8.5{\pm}5.1%$, women $6.5{\pm}3.6%$). Conclusions : The amount of fat in the symptomatic side shows significantly increased than asymptomatic side in the paraspinal muscles at the L4-5 disc level. It suggested that fat infiltration in the muscles associated with LBP. Further studies will be needed to confirm the relationship between the muscle fatty changes and LBP in the large sample size. In addition, the correlation of pain severity with fat infiltration needs to be addressed.

Enhancing Predictive Accuracy of Collaborative Filtering Algorithms using the Network Analysis of Trust Relationship among Users (사용자 간 신뢰관계 네트워크 분석을 활용한 협업 필터링 알고리즘의 예측 정확도 개선)

  • Choi, Seulbi;Kwahk, Kee-Young;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.113-127
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    • 2016
  • Among the techniques for recommendation, collaborative filtering (CF) is commonly recognized to be the most effective for implementing recommender systems. Until now, CF has been popularly studied and adopted in both academic and real-world applications. The basic idea of CF is to create recommendation results by finding correlations between users of a recommendation system. CF system compares users based on how similar they are, and recommend products to users by using other like-minded people's results of evaluation for each product. Thus, it is very important to compute evaluation similarities among users in CF because the recommendation quality depends on it. Typical CF uses user's explicit numeric ratings of items (i.e. quantitative information) when computing the similarities among users in CF. In other words, user's numeric ratings have been a sole source of user preference information in traditional CF. However, user ratings are unable to fully reflect user's actual preferences from time to time. According to several studies, users may more actively accommodate recommendation of reliable others when purchasing goods. Thus, trust relationship can be regarded as the informative source for identifying user's preference with accuracy. Under this background, we propose a new hybrid recommender system that fuses CF and social network analysis (SNA). The proposed system adopts the recommendation algorithm that additionally reflect the result analyzed by SNA. In detail, our proposed system is based on conventional memory-based CF, but it is designed to use both user's numeric ratings and trust relationship information between users when calculating user similarities. For this, our system creates and uses not only user-item rating matrix, but also user-to-user trust network. As the methods for calculating user similarity between users, we proposed two alternatives - one is algorithm calculating the degree of similarity between users by utilizing in-degree and out-degree centrality, which are the indices representing the central location in the social network. We named these approaches as 'Trust CF - All' and 'Trust CF - Conditional'. The other alternative is the algorithm reflecting a neighbor's score higher when a target user trusts the neighbor directly or indirectly. The direct or indirect trust relationship can be identified by searching trust network of users. In this study, we call this approach 'Trust CF - Search'. To validate the applicability of the proposed system, we used experimental data provided by LibRec that crawled from the entire FilmTrust website. It consists of ratings of movies and trust relationship network indicating who to trust between users. The experimental system was implemented using Microsoft Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) and UCINET 6. To examine the effectiveness of the proposed system, we compared the performance of our proposed method with one of conventional CF system. The performances of recommender system were evaluated by using average MAE (mean absolute error). The analysis results confirmed that in case of applying without conditions the in-degree centrality index of trusted network of users(i.e. Trust CF - All), the accuracy (MAE = 0.565134) was lower than conventional CF (MAE = 0.564966). And, in case of applying the in-degree centrality index only to the users with the out-degree centrality above a certain threshold value(i.e. Trust CF - Conditional), the proposed system improved the accuracy a little (MAE = 0.564909) compared to traditional CF. However, the algorithm searching based on the trusted network of users (i.e. Trust CF - Search) was found to show the best performance (MAE = 0.564846). And the result from paired samples t-test presented that Trust CF - Search outperformed conventional CF with 10% statistical significance level. Our study sheds a light on the application of user's trust relationship network information for facilitating electronic commerce by recommending proper items to users.

Enhancing Technology Learning Capabilities for Catch-up and Post Catch-up Innovations (기술학습역량 강화를 통한 추격 및 탈추격 혁신 촉진)

  • Bae, Zong-Tae;Lee, Jong-Seon;Koo, Bonjin
    • The Journal of Small Business Innovation
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.53-68
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    • 2016
  • Motivation and activities for technological learning, entrepreneurship, innovation, and creativity are driving forces of economic development in Asian countries. In the early stages of technological development, technological learning and entrepreneurship are efficient ways in which to catch up with advanced countries because firms can accumulate skills and knowledge quickly at relatively low risk. In the later stages of technological development, however, innovation and creativity become more important. This study aims to identify a) the factors (learning capabilities) that influence technological learning performance and b) barriers to enhancing innovation capabilities for the creative economy and organizations. The major part of this study is related to learning capabilities in the post-catch-up era. Based on a literature review and observations from Korean experiences, this study proposes a technological learning model composed of various influencing factors on technological learning. Three hypotheses are derived, and data are collected from Korean machine tool manufacturers. Intense interviews with CEOs and R&D directors are conducted using structured questionnaires. Statistical analysis, such as correlation and ANOVA are then carried out. Furthermore, this study addresses how to enhance innovation capabilities to move forward. Innovation enablers and barriers are identified by case studies and policy analysis. The results of the empirical study identify several levels of firms' learning capabilities and activities such as a) stock of technology, b) potential of technical labor, c) explicit technological efforts, d) readiness to learn, e) top management support, f) a formal technological learning system, g) high learning motivation, h) appropriate technology choice, and i) specific goal setting. These learning capabilities determine firms' learning performance, especially in the early stages of development. Furthermore, it is found that the critical factors for successful technological learning vary along the stages of technology development. Throughout the statistical and policy analyses, this study confirms that technological learning can be understood as an intrinsic principle of the technology development process. Firms perform proactive and creative learning in the late stages, while reactive and imitative learning prevails in the early stages. In addition, this study identifies the driving forces or facilitating factors enhancing innovation performance in the post catch-up era. The results of the preliminary case studies and policy analysis show some facilitating factors such as a) the strategic intent of the CEO and corporate culture, b) leadership and change agents, c) design principles and routines, d) ecosystem and collaboration with partners, and e) intensive R&D investment.

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The Habitat Classification of mammals in Korea based on the National Ecosystem Survey (전국자연환경조사를 활용한 포유류 서식지 유형의 분류)

  • Lee, Hwajin;Ha, Jeongwook;Cha, Jinyeol;Lee, Junghyo;Yoon, Heenam;Chung, Chulun;Oh, Hongshik;Bae, Soyeon
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.160-170
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study is to perform clustering of the habitat types and to identify the characteristics of species in the habitat types using mammal data (70,562) of the 3rd National Ecosystem Survey conducted from 2006 to 2012. The 15 habitat types recorded in the field-paper of the 3rd National ecosystem survey were reclassified, which was followed by the statistical analysis of mammal habitat types. In the habitat types cluster analysis, non-hierarchical cluster analysis (k-means cluster analysis), hierarchical cluster analysis, and non-metric multidimensional scaling method were applied to 14 habitat types recorded more than 30 times. A total of 7 Orders, 16 Families, and 39 Species of mammals were identified in the 3rd National Ecosystem Survey collected nationwide. When 11 clusters were classified by habitat types, the simple structure index was the highest (ssi = 0.07). As a result of the similarities and hierarchies between habitat types suggested by the hierarchical clustering analysis, the residential areas were the most different habitat types for mammals; the next following type was a cluster together with rivers and coasts. The results of the non-metric multidimensional scaling analysis demonstrated that both Mus musculus and Rattus norvegicus restrictively appeared in a residential area, which is the most discriminating habitat type. Lutra lutra restrictively appeared in coastal and river areas. In summary, according to our results, the mammalian habitat can be divided into the following four types: (1) the forest type (using forest as the main habitat and migration route); (2) the river type (using water as the main habitat); (3) the residence habitat (living near residential area); and (4) the lowland type (consuming grain or seeds as the main feeding resource).

The Mediating Effect of Corporate Reputation between the Organizational Slack and Corporate Performance in Venture SMEs (벤처중소기업의 조직여유와 기업성과간의 관계에서 기업명성의 매개효과 연구)

  • Bae, Hoyoung
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.17-25
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    • 2015
  • This research is to analyze the mediating effect of corporate reputation between the organizational slack and corporate performance in venture SMEs. That is, after controlling the firm size, firm age, social capital, environmental uncertainty, we test three hypothesis. First, we test the hypothesis that organizational slack has a positive effect on corporate reputation. Second, we test the hypothesis that corporate reputation has a positive effect on corporate performance. Third, we test the positive mediating role of corporate reputation between organizational slack and corporate performance. For this research, we administered the questionnaire surveys, and got the 250 effective data(companies) of korean venture SMEs. We use SPSS 18.0, and analysis the validity, reliability, correlation and multiple regression analysis of research model. As a result, we can find the three meaningful results. First, organizational slack, especially not absorbed slack but unabsorbed slack, has positive effect on the corporate reputation. Second, corporate reputation has positive effect on corporate performance. Third, corporate reputation has mediating effect between organizational slack, especially not absorbed slack but unabsorbed slack, and corporate performance. Although this research has some limitations of generalization because of the limited size of samples, we has meaning information related to the venture companies in the academic and business field.

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A Regression-Model-based Method for Combining Interestingness Measures of Association Rule Mining (연관상품 추천을 위한 회귀분석모형 기반 연관 규칙 척도 결합기법)

  • Lee, Dongwon
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.127-141
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    • 2017
  • Advances in Internet technologies and the proliferation of mobile devices enabled consumers to approach a wide range of goods and services, while causing an adverse effect that they have hard time reaching their congenial items even if they devote much time to searching for them. Accordingly, businesses are using the recommender systems to provide tools for consumers to find the desired items more easily. Association Rule Mining (ARM) technology is advantageous to recommender systems in that ARM provides intuitive form of a rule with interestingness measures (support, confidence, and lift) describing the relationship between items. Given an item, its relevant items can be distinguished with the help of the measures that show the strength of relationship between items. Based on the strength, the most pertinent items can be chosen among other items and exposed to a given item's web page. However, the diversity of the measures may confuse which items are more recommendable. Given two rules, for example, one rule's support and confidence may not be concurrently superior to the other rule's. Such discrepancy of the measures in distinguishing one rule's superiority from other rules may cause difficulty in selecting proper items for recommendation. In addition, in an online environment where a web page or mobile screen can provide a limited number of recommendations that attract consumer interest, the prudent selection of items to be included in the list of recommendations is very important. The exposure of items of little interest may lead consumers to ignore the recommendations. Then, such consumers will possibly not pay attention to other forms of marketing activities. Therefore, the measures should be aligned with the probability of consumer's acceptance of recommendations. For this reason, this study proposes a model-based approach to combine those measures into one unified measure that can consistently determine the ranking of recommended items. A regression model was designed to describe how well the measures (independent variables; i.e., support, confidence, and lift) explain consumer's acceptance of recommendations (dependent variables, hit rate of recommended items). The model is intuitive to understand and easy to use in that the equation consists of the commonly used measures for ARM and can be used in the estimation of hit rates. The experiment using transaction data from one of the Korea's largest online shopping malls was conducted to show that the proposed model can improve the hit rates of recommendations. From the top of the list to 13th place, recommended items in the higher rakings from the proposed model show the higher hit rates than those from the competitive model's. The result shows that the proposed model's performance is superior to the competitive model's in online recommendation environment. In a web page, consumers are provided around ten recommendations with which the proposed model outperforms. Moreover, a mobile device cannot expose many items simultaneously due to its limited screen size. Therefore, the result shows that the newly devised recommendation technique is suitable for the mobile recommender systems. While this study has been conducted to cover the cross-selling in online shopping malls that handle merchandise, the proposed method can be expected to be applied in various situations under which association rules apply. For example, this model can be applied to medical diagnostic systems that predict candidate diseases from a patient's symptoms. To increase the efficiency of the model, additional variables will need to be considered for the elaboration of the model in future studies. For example, price can be a good candidate for an explanatory variable because it has a major impact on consumer purchase decisions. If the prices of recommended items are much higher than the items in which a consumer is interested, the consumer may hesitate to accept the recommendations.

A Comparative Study of CTDI and the Effective Dose and the SNR according to the Area in the Abdominal CT (복부CT에서 면적에 따른 CTDI와 유효선량 및 SNR의 비교 연구)

  • Choi, Sung-Jun;Kang, Jun-Guk;Kim, Su-In;Kim, Youn-Ho;Lee, Do-Gyeong;Jung, Jin-Gyung;Cho, Ar-A;Jang, Jae-Hyeok;Kweon, Dae-Cheol
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.245-252
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    • 2015
  • To obtain the best SNR (signal to noise ratio) due to changes in CTDI (computed tomography dose index) made for the purpose of setting the optimum image obtained by reducing the dose in abdominal CT. Abdominal CT scans of 59 patients a $400-499cm^2$ (n = 12), $500-599cm^2$ (n = 21), $600-699cm^2$ (n = 17), $700-799cm^2$ (n = 9) were separated by four groups and the effective dose was used in the Excel to get the area of the patient using the ImageJ program. Patients of CTDI, DLP, SNR, the effective dose were analyzed. Abdominal CT area was increased to 13 mGy in CTDI is 7.3 mGy, DLP to 732 in $394.4mGy{\cdot}cm$, also effective dose was 5.9 mSv increase in 11mSv. SNR is 15 dB was maintained at 12.7. CTDI according to the average of the abdominal area of 8.9 mGy, the average of the DLP was $481.54mGy{\cdot}cm$, the effective dose is calculated to be 7.2 mSV. Effective dose was calculated by multiplying the load factor of DLP in the abdomen showed no statistically significant difference of (p < .05), there was a significant difference in SNR (p > . 05). To improve image quality of abdominal CT scan image in consideration of the CTDI according to the volume of the patient it should be able to reduce the radiation exposure of the patients.