• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2007.05a
• /
• pp.1953-1957
• /
• 2007

전 세계적으로 지구 온난화 등의 영향으로 인해 이상기후의 발생이 증가하고 있는 추세에 있다. 특히 엘니뇨 현상은 세계적으로 발생하는 홍수, 가뭄 등과 같은 재해와 많은 관련이 있음이 연구를 통해 확인되었다. 이러한 엘니뇨 현상을 판단하기 위해서는 다양한 자료들이 사용되고 있으며, 그 중 관측 인자의 하나로서 태평양 해수면 온도 자료 (Pacific sea surface temperature)를 많이 사용하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라 강수량 자료와 태평양 해수면 온도의 원격상관 (Teleconnection) 관계를 분석하였다. 강수량 자료로는 우리나라 20개 기상관측소의 월강수량 자료를 사용하였으며, 태평양 해수면 온도 자료로는 Nino1+2 $(0-10^{\circ}S,\;90^{\circ}W-80^{\circ}W)$, Nino3 ($5^{\circ}N-5^{\circ}S$, $150^{\circ}W-90^{\circ}W)$, Nino4 ($5^{\circ}N-5^{\circ}S$, $160^{\circ}E-150^{\circ}W$) 그리고 Nino3.4 ($5^{\circ}N-5^{\circ}S$, $170^{\circ}W-120^{\circ}W$) 관측 지역의 해수면 온도 자료를 사용하였다. 우리나라 강수량의 경우 계절에 따라 큰 변동성을 보이고 있다. 따라서 자료의 계절적 영향을 파악하기 위해 봄 (3월, 4월, 5월), 여름 (6월, 7월, 8월), 가을 (9월, 10월, 11월) 그리고 겨울 (12월, 1월, 2월)의 4계절로 구분하여, 초과확률 등을 이용한 분석을 실시하였다. 분석 결과 Warm ENSO episode의 경우 강수량 증가와 유의한 상관관계를 나타냈으며, Cold ENSO episode의 경우 강수량 감소와 유의한 상관관계를 나타내었다. 이러한 분석 결과는 최근 들어 우리나라에 발생하고 있는 이상기후발생과 관련된 연구에 유용한 정보를 제공해 줄 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• Atmosphere
• /
• v.28 no.3
• /
• pp.305-315
• /
• 2018

This study investigates the characteristic spatial patterns and dynamic processes associated with the summertime extreme temperature events in South Korea during the last 20 years (1995~2014) using Self-Organizing Map (SOM). The classified SOM patterns commonly have high temperature and anticyclonic circulation anomalies over South Korea. The two major teleconnection patterns are identified: one is from the subtropical western North Pacific (WNP) affecting to the north and the other is from the North Atlantic (NA) affecting downstream region. The meridional teleconnection pattern is related to the forcing of positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly over the WNP. The northward propagating Rossby wave generates the East Asia-Pacific (EAP) pattern to form an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over South Korea. On the other hand, NA SST anomalies generate an eastward Rossby wave train across the Eurasian continent, leading to the development of an anticyclonic circulation anomaly over South Korea. The EAP pattern occurs more frequently in July and August, whereas the midlatitude teleconnection pattern associated with NA SST anomalies develops more frequently in early summer (June).

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
• /
• v.29 no.1
• /
• pp.45-59
• /
• 2008

This study aims to analyze the interdecadal variation of relationship between Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) during the period of 1948-2005. In the pre-period, which is from 1948 to 1975, the relationship between Indian Ocean SST and East Asian summer rainfall anomaly (EASRA) is very weak. However, in the post-period, which is trom 1980 to 2005, Indian Ocean SST is significantly positively correlated with EASRA. The equatorial Indian Ocean SST has a significantly positive correlation with EASM in spring, while Indian Ocean SST near the bay of Bengal has a positive relationship in summer for the post-period. Also the interdecadal variation of the correlation between Indian Ocean SST and EASRA is significant, but that between EASRA and the El $Ni{\tilde{n}}o$-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is not. Atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) test results show the pattern of increased precipitation in the zonal belt region including South Korea and Japan and the pattern of decreased precipitation in the northeastern part of Asia, which are similar to the real climate. The increase of the precipitation in August from the model run is also similar to the real climate variation. Model results indicate that the Indian Ocean SST warming could intensify the convection over the vicinity of the Philippines and the Bay of Bengal, which forces to move northward the convection center. This warming strengthens the EASM and weakens the WNPM.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.28 no.2B
• /
• pp.237-248
• /
• 2008

Precipitation variability in Korea is mainly influenced by climate circulation such as sea surface temperature, not a local convection. Therefore, this study investigates relationship between monthly precipitation of 61 station observed by Korea Meteorological Administration and global sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The main components of monthly precipitation in Korea are extracted by a method which consists of the principal analysis combined with the cluster analysis, to examine the correlation between monthly rainfalls and SSTs. The relationships between main components of monthly precipitation and SSTs exists in Pacific Ocean. At the result of Wavelet Transform analysis, The 2-4 year band have a strong wavelet power spectrum and the low frequency. the correlation coefficient between low frequency components of monthly rainfalls and SSTs calculated bigger then correlation coefficient between main components and SSTs. Hence, these results propose a prediction possibility of monthly precipitations using the varition of SSTs.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
• /
• v.7 no.4
• /
• pp.240-249
• /
• 2005

The normal Indian Ocean is characterized by warmer waters over the eastern region and cooler waters over the western region. Changes in sea surface temperature (SST) over the western and eastern Indian Ocean give birth to a phenomenon now referred to as the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode (IODM). The positive phase of this mode is characterized by positive SST anomalies over the western Indian Ocean and negative anomalies over the southeastern Indian Ocean, while the negative phase is characterized by a reversed SST anomaly pattern. On the other hand, the normal Pacific Ocean has warm (cool) waters over the western (eastern) parts. Positive (negative) SST anomalies over the central/eastern (western) Pacific Ocean characterize the E1 Nino phenomenon. The reverse situation leads to the La Nina phenomenon. The coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon over the Pacific is referred to as the E1 Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. In this study the impact of IODM and ENSO on the East Asian monsoon variability has been studied using observational data and using the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Five sets of model experiments were performed with anomalous SST patterns associated with IODM/ENSO superimposed on the climatological SSTs. The empirical and dynamic approaches reveal that it takes about 3-4 seasons fur the peak IODM mode to influence the summer monsoon activity over East Asia. On the other hand, the impact of ENSO on the East Asian monsoon could occur simultaneously. Further, the negative (positive) phase of IODM and E1 Nino (La Nina) over the Pacific enhances (suppresses) monsoon activity over the Korea-Japan Sector. Alternatively, IODM appears to have no significant impact on monsoon variability over China. However, El Nino (La Nina) suppresses (enhances) monsoon activity over China. While the IODM appears to influence the North Pacific subtropical high, ENSO appears to influence the Aleutian low over the northwest Pacific. Thus, the moisture supply towards East Asia from the Pacific is determined by the strengthening/weakening of the subtropical high and the Aleutian low.

• International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics Korean Journal of Geophysical Research
• /
• v.21 no.1
• /
• pp.47-54
• /
• 1993

The major positive sea surface temperature(SST) anomalies not only occur in the region with the most moisture increase, but also in the flank of the area with sinking motion in the Subtropics. As the large amount of water vapor has been increased by the SST anomaly, the increased of the SST is expected to destabilize the air and leads under moist adiabatic unstable conditions, to an enhanced development of moisture cluster. The 4.0 K change of SST causes the positive difference of Brightness Temperature(TB) of about 10.0k for water vapor channels of TOVS over the north eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean, but the negative difference of TB of about 7.5 K is shifted southward and southeastward to Southern Pacific Ocean along the equator correspondingly. The difference of the TBs for IR water vapor channel $11(7.3{\mu}m)$ and $12(6.7{\mu}m)$ of TOVS indicative of the moisture distribution during two time periods(January 1983 and 1984), leads us to infer significant changes in the entire tropospheric circulations and the dynamic processes over the Pacific Ocean.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.38 no.12 s.161
• /
• pp.995-1008
• /
• 2005

In this study, the principal components of rainfall in Korea are extracted by a method which consists of the independent component analysis combined with the wavelet transform, to examine the spatial correlation between seasonal rainfalls and global sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The 2-8 year band retains a strong wavelet power spectrum and the low frequency characteristics are shown by the wavelet analysis. The independent component analysis is performed by using the Scale Average Wavelet Power(SAWP) that is estimated by wavelet analysis. Interannual-interdecadal variation is the dominant variation, and an increasing trend is observed in the spring and summer seasons. The relationships between principal components of rainfall in the spring/summer seasons and SSTs existed in Indian and Pacific Oceans. Particularly, the SST zones, which represent a statistically significant correlation are located in the Philippine offshore and Australia offshore. Also, the three month leading SSTs in the same region we strongly correlated with the rainfall. Hence, these results propose a promising possibility of seasonal rainfall prediction by SST predictors.

• Proceedings of the Korean Environmental Sciences Society Conference
• /
• 1997.04a
• /
• pp.84-85
• /
• 1997

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
• /
• v.10 no.3
• /
• pp.119-131
• /
• 2010

Drought is one of disaster causing factors to produce severe damage in the World because drought is destroyed to the ecosystem as well as to make difficult the economy of the drought area. This study, using Palmer Drought Severity Index carries out correlation analysis with sea surface temperatures. Comparative analysis carries out by calculated Palmer Drought Severity Index and past drought occurrence year. Result of comparative analysis, PDSI indexes were in accord with the past drought. Cluster analysis for correlation analysis carries out using precipitation and temperature that is input datas palmer drought severity index, and the result of cluster analysis was classified as 6. Also, principal component carries out using result of cluster analysis. 14 principal component analyze out through principal component analysis. Using analyzed 14 principal component carries out correlation analysis with sea surface temperature that is delay time from 0month until 11month. Correlation analysis carries out sea surface temperatures and calculated cycle component of the low frequency through Wavelet Transform analysis form principal component. Result of correlation analysis, yang(+) correlation is bigger than yin(-) correlation. It is possible to check similar correlation statistically the area of sea surface temperature with sea surface temperature in the Pacific. Forecasting possibility of the future drought make propose using sea surface temperature.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2021.06a
• /
• pp.73-73
• /
• 2021

가뭄의 계절적 예측성을 개선하기 위해서는 대기-지면-해양의 상호 작용이 현실적으로 모의할 수 있는 지구 기후 예보 모델의 개선이 필수적이다. 제한적인 기후 예보 모델의 예측성으로 인하여 다중 기후 모델들의 다중 앙상블 계절 예보 시스템이 제안되었다. 2008년에 제안된 북미 다중 모델 다중 앙상블 시스템(North American Multimodel Multiensemble System; NMME)은 다양한 모델 개발팀의 참여로 현재까지 운영되면서 계절적 예측성 연구에 큰 이바지를 하였다. 본 연구에서는 NMME 프로젝트에 참여하는 기후 예보 모델들의 북방 여름철 근지표면 온도과 강우량의 예측성을 진단하고 이들의 상관 관계의 강도를 관측데이터와 비교 분석하였다. 대부분의 NMME 모델들에서는 관측데이터에서 보다 강한 음의 상관 관계를 보였다. 이런 근지표면 온도와 강우량의 강한 상관 관계로 우수한 근지 표면 온도 예보는 각각의 해마다 그 역할이 다른 것을 발견되었다. 예를 들어 가문 여름에는 우수한 근지표면 온도 예보가 강우량 예보에 도움이 되고 강우량이 많은 여름에는 우수한 근지표면 온도 예보는 오히려 강우량 예측성을 제한하게 된다. 따라서 기존의 기후 예보 모델들에서 근지표면 온도와 강우량의 상관관계를 사실적으로 나타낼 수 있도록 모델 개선이 요구된다. 마지막으로 관측데이터와 기후 모델데이터에서 태평양과 대서양의 해수면 온도와 미국의 북방 여름철 날씨의 관계를 비교하였다. 근지표면 온도과 강우량에 대한 제한적 예측성에 비해, 대부분의 NMME 기후 예보 모델들에서 해수면 온도의 예측기술은 우수함을 발견하였고 몇몇 모델들에서는 미국의 북방 여름철 기후에 영향력을 주는 대서양과 태평양의 지역까지 잘 모사하는 것을 발견하였다. 따라서 본 연구는 보다 우수한 기후 예보 기술을 위해 앙상블 평균 예보값만이 아닌 NMME의 계절적 예보를 선택적인 사용이 필요함을 제안하였고 앞으로 북미 대륙 뿐만이 아니라 유럽-아시아의 계절적 이상 기후 예측성에 대한 연구 필요성을 강조하였다.