• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.1-23
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• 2009

This paper uses a survey data to analyze the age-specific fertility rates, age-specific cumulative fertility rates, and ages of marriage of the five birth cohorts of Korean women born in the 1940s and thereafter. It was found that later cohorts reach their highest age-specific fertility rate at higher ages than earlier cohorts. The age-specific cumulative fertility rates of the 1950s and 1960 cohorts were found to be much lower than those of the immediately preceding cohorts, while those of the 1970s and 1980s cohorts were not different from those of the 1960s cohorts. Women belonging to later cohorts were found to get married at relatively higher ages. The estimation results of the hazard model show that women belonging to later cohorts and those with more schooling have a tendency to get married at higher ages. The effect of the birth cohorts is thought to be due to the economic, social, and cultural changes in Korea during the late 50 years or so. The time interval between a woman‘s marriage and first birth was found not to be affected by either the year of marriage or that of her birth. Also, those who remained employed for some time around their marriage and those with low schooling were found to have a lower first child birth hazard, which implies that married women’s employment status and family income play an important role in their decisions on childbirth.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.20 no.8
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• pp.251-261
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• 2020

This study aims to suggest a new perspective that can account for variations in fertility rates across OECD countries. Most previous literature has highlighted the influence of government policies on fertility rates. This study focuses the role of job strain, unequal division of household labor, and life satisfaction on fertility rates. These factors are related to work-life balance, and play a crucial role in understanding variations in fertility rates across OECD countries. Using fuzzy set qualitative comparative research analysis (fsQCA), this study tests whether fertility rates can be explained by differences in the levels of job strain, gender equality at home, and life satisfaction across countries. The results are as follows: First, high fertility-countries show low levels of job strain, equal division of household labor, high levels of life satisfaction, and high levels of GDP. Second, a high level of GDP is not crucial for achieving high fertility rates. This study suggests that changes in working conditions and organizational culture are required to increase the fertility rate in Korea, since this can influence work-life balance, life satisfaction and equal division of household labor.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.73-101
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• 2012

This study attempts to assess the effects of childcare facilities and private education expenses on birth rate and also, to examine whether or not the quality and reliability of childcare facilities affect birth rate. Private education expenses are proxied by the number of private educational institutes or their employees. The study measures the quality and reliability of childcare facilities either by the number of employees per childcare facility or by the ratio of childcare facilities with less than 10 employees to total facilities. Empirical analysis is carried out with a cross-sectional data of 232 areas (si/gun/gu) in 2009. Empirical results indicate that the number of childcare facilities or their employees tended to increase birth rate, while private educational expenses had no effects on birth rate. It appears that the presence of good and reliable childcare facilities contributed to an increase in birth rate. The results provide several policy implications for an increase in fertility.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.607-612
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• 2021

This study estimated the impact of the shock of housing price increase on the total fertility rate and the contribution of each variable to changes in the TFR. This study is differentiated by estimating the contribution rate of each variable to the fertility rate through the Shapley decomposition and the panel VAR's forecast error variance decomposition, which previous studies have not attempted. The main results of this study are as follows. First, the decline in the TFR in Korea has been strongly influenced by the recent decline in the total fertility rate, and this influence is expected to continue in the future. In the case of housing costs, in the past, housing sales prices had a relatively small contribution to changes in the total fertility rate compared to the jeonse prices, but their influence is expected to increase in the long term in the future. It has been demonstrated that private education expenses other than housing sale price and Jeonse price also acted as a major cause of the decline in the total fertility rate.

• Korean Journal of Social Welfare
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• v.57 no.3
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• pp.337-361
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• 2005

This study seeks the implications for the Korean family welfare policies after examining the characteristics of fertility rates and family welfare policies of advanced OECD countries, and comparatively analyzing the fertility rates among clusters of countries having similar family welfare policies. The fertility rates of most advanced OECD countries declined below the population replacement level in the 1970s, and continuously declined slowly after that period. But in the 1990s the fertility rate of some countries increased, on the other hand that of other countries declined. Such a difference of fertility rates suggests that there is some correlation between the fertility rate and the family welfare policy of each country. Advanced countries became concerned about the decline of fertility rate, established the government Population Issues Committee in order to deal with population problems, and increased family welfare supports. But the level and pattern(focusing on maternal employment supports or child-rearing supports) of each country's family welfare policies are differently developed according to its political ideology, cultural and historical background, and economic environments. A comparative assessment of the fertility rate among clusters of countries having similar family welfare policies demonstrates that the higher the level of family welfare supports is and the level of maternal employment supports in comparison with that of maternal child-rearing supports is, the higher of fertility rate is. And a comparative assessment of the fertility rate changes among clusters of countries also shows that the higher the level of family welfare supports is and the level of maternal employment supports in comparison with that of maternal child-rearing supports is, the higher the increase of fertility rate is or the lower the decrease of fertility rate is. The implications for the Korean family welfare policies are summarized as follows. First, it is necessary to establish the government Population Issues Committee which can study systematically fertility rates and population problems, and provide comprehensive population measures. Second, family welfare supports should be expanded through the establishment of family allowances, the prolongation of maternity leave and child-care leave and the upward readjustment of child-care leave benefits, and the extension of public child-care facilities. Third, maternal employment supports such as public child-care facilities and maternity leave should be given more weight than maternal child-rearing supports such as family allowance. Fourth, it is required to prepare social environments which can provide the youth with the hope that child-rearing is not difficult and gives them happiness.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.161-183
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• 2009

지난 30년 동안 출산율은 대부분의 국가에서 감소했다. 그리고 전 세계 인구의 절반 이상은 대체수준 이하의 출산력 수준에 이르고 있다. 합계출산율이 1.5 혹은 그 이하의 출산력 수준을 보이는 국가의 수도 계속 증가하고 있다. 저출산의 확산과 함께 합계출산율 1.3 이하를 의미하는 초저출산 현상도 크게 주목받고 있다. 앞으로 저출산이 멈출 것인지, 출산율이 회복될 것인지 혹은 지속적으로 감소할 것인지에 대해서는 아무도 쉽게 답할 수 없다. 그럼에도 불구하고 최근 산업국가들이 보여주고 있는 저출산 기조는 상당 기간 지속될 것으로 보는 견해가 일반적이다. 이 글은 저출산 및 초저출산 현상을 어떻게 설명할 것인가에 대한 이론적 논의를 검토하고, 이러한 논의가 한국 사회의 인구학적 변화에 어떤 함의를 지니고 있는가를 제시하고자 한다. 이를 위해 우선 저출산을 설명하는데 유용한 이론적 틀을 검토하고자 한다. 이들은 제2차 인구변천이론, 합리적 선택이론, 위험이론, 양성평등 이론, 선호이론, 젠더와 시장이론 등을 포함한다. 이를 기반으로 본 연구는 한국사회의 저출산 현상을 설명하는 연구들의 특성과 시사점 등을 검토하고자 한다.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.141-159
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• 2009

우리나라는 2002년 초저출산 사회(합계출산율 1.3명 이하)로 진입한 후 합계출산율이 평균 1.2 이하인 상황이 지속되고 있다. 이러한 초저출산 상황이 향후 지속된다면 인구고령화의 사회 경제적 여파가 예상보다 클 것으로 전망된다. 과연 이런 초저출산 추세가 일시적인 것인지 아니면 앞으로 계속 지속될 것인지에 대한 검토가 필요하다. 이에 본 연구는 최근 저출산함정 가설(low fertility trap hypothesis)을 제기한 Lutz, Skirbekk and Testa(2006)의 논의를 소개한다. 그들은 크게 인구학적, 사회적, 그리고 경제적 요인과 같이 3가지 요인으로 구분하여 저출산함정의 존재 가능성을 논하고 있다. 그렇다면 과연 우리나라는 저출산함정에 빠져 있는가? 먼저 고령화 가설의 경우 출생아수와 고령화간 부(-)의 관계가 나타나고 있으며, 최근 이상자녀수가 2.2~2.3명이지만, 실제자녀수는 그 수준을 하회하고 있어 이상자녀수가설도 지지된다. 상대소득가설의 경우, 류덕현(2007)의 연구결과에 따르면 연령 계층 간 상대소득이 출산율에 정(+)의 효과를 보여 상대소득가설이 지지되는 것으로 나타났다. 물론 제한된 영역에서 완벽한 검증이 이루어진 것은 아니지만, 적어도 출산율이 대체수준까지 회복되기에는 어려운 상황이라는 점을 발견할 수 있었으며, 이는 우리나라의 저출산 문제가 얼마나 심각한 수준인지를 재확인시켜준다.

• Journal of Labour Economics
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.105-121
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• 2014

Since the end of the World War II, the population explosion of developing countries has been a global concern. However, the impact of family planning program effort to reduce fertility is difficult to measure, as the effort level is endogenously determined. This paper studies if the family planning program impact is substantial and statistically significant in fertility reduction using fixed effect analysis. The fixed effect estimate shows that there is little impact of family planning program effort on fertility. Only the higher income countries showed significant negative impact.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.651-657
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• 2024

This study comparatively analyzed the impact of childcare workforce cost on fertility rates across different countries. In the cases of Nordic countries, comprehensive childcare support policies and subsidies for childcare workforce costs were found to have a positive impact on fertility rates. In contrast, high childcare burden and economic pressures were identified as major factors contributing to declining fertility rates in East Asian countries. In developing countries, the effectiveness of childcare support policies varied depending on the socioeconomic context. This study suggests that the impact of childcare workforce cost on fertility rates manifests in diverse patterns across countries, and effective childcare support policies require tailored approaches that consider each country's specific circumstances. In the future, increased social investment in childcare and the spread of a culture that respects the value of care are necessary.

• Informatization Policy
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.20-35
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• 2019

We empirically analyze the effects of psychological factors, such as the fear of parenting, on fertility rates. An index is calculated based on the share of negative news articles on child care in all social articles from 2000 to 2018. The analysis result shows that as the index increases, the fertility rate after three years falls. This result is repeated in the correlation analysis, simple regression, and VAR analysis. According to Granger causality analysis, it is found that the relation between the index and the fertility rate after three years is not just a simple correlation but a causal relationship. There are differences among age groups. The fertility rate of women in their 20s and 30s shows a significant response to the index, but that of the 40s does not. The index affects the birthrate of first child, but do not affect the birthrate of second or more children. These results are consistent with the intuition that younger women are more likely to be affected by the negative articles about parenting, but not to those who have already experienced childbirth. This study is meaningful in that a significant index for predicting social phenomena is extracted beyond the limited use of news big data such as a simple keyword mention volume monitoring. Also, this big data-based index is a 3-year leading indicator for fertility, which provides the advantage of providing information that helps early detection.