• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.229-263
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• 2019

The Korean fertility rate has been declining rapidly since 2000 with the fertility rate among provinces following a uniform tendency. In particular, the province-specific fertility rate is an essential tool for local governments to prepare local policies for low fertility aging policy, education and welfare policies. However, there is limitation on how to reflect different trends on the province-specific fertility rate because the KOSTAT's (2017) province-specific fertility rate projection estimates information use the national average birth rate date of vital statistics for the last 10 years (5 years). In this study, we propose an improvement plan that simultaneously considers important stable pattern maintenance and provincial fertility rate differentiation for an annual birth rate estimation. The method proposed in this study (proposal 1 and 2) can reflect birth rate changes from past to present and national and provincial differences by age that use time series data of the annual fertility rate. Proposal 3 also reflects the unique fertility rate trend from the past to the present by age according to province regardless of the relationship with the national trend. Therefore, it is preferable to use a relationship to the national rate when predicting the birth rate, as in proposals 1 and 2 because the national and the provincial fertility rate pattern are similar. These proposals show improved stability in terms of age-specific fertility rates.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.35-59
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• 2004

본 연구는 우리나라의 출산율 하락 현상을 경제학적 관점에서 분석한다. 우리나라의 출산율 하락은 출산연령의 상승 및 출산여성의 고학력화를 수반하고 있다. 합계출산율의 하락을 유발하는 두 요인인 완결출산율의 하락과 출산시기의 연장 중 완결출산율은 완만히 하락하고 있는 것으로 추정되며 최근의 급속한 출산율 하락세를 설명하기에는 부족하다. 출산여성의 고학력화에 따른 출산시기의 연장은 합계출산율의 변화 방향과는 일치하나 역시 최근의 급속한 출산율 하락을 설명하기에는 충분하지 않다. 다만 이 요인은 향후 합계출산율의 반등 가능성을 시사한다. 그러므로 최근의 급속한 출산율 하락은 출산시기의 연장에 기인하였을 가능성이 높으며 그 중요한 요인은 여성 노동시장의 변화일 것으로 추정된다. 이 부분에 관한 본 연구의 분석은 충분하지 않으나 고학력 여성의 취업률 증가, 임금-연령 곡선의 상승에 의한 출산시기 지연의 가능성을 제시하였다.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.32 no.4
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• pp.463-483
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• 2019

Since 2000, Korea's total fertility rate (TFR) has been different from that of Japan, Germany, and France where irreversible constants do not change easily in the fertility rate increasing or decreasing phase. It also showed a gradual increase from the minimum fertility level 1.08 in 2005 to 1.23 in 2015, which dropped to 1.17 in 2016, to 1.05 in 2017 and to 0.98 in 2018. This is similar to a double dip in the economic status of a recession. This paper investigates such a TFR increase and decrease factor that predicts the number of births affecting TFR, examines trends in the proportion of married and marital fertility rate broken down by TFR decomposition method. We also examined how these changes affect the change in TFR. According to the results, the number of births is estimated to be between 320 and 330 thousand in 2018, 300 thousand in 2020, 230 and 240 thousand in 2025. The proportion of married is steadily decreasing from 1981 to 2025, and the marital fertility rate is predicted to decline until 2002, then increase from 2003 to 2016 and decrease from 2017 to 2025. Finally, the trend of TFR in terms of number of births, TFR decomposition and statistical model is expected to show 0.98 in 2018, 0.93 to 1.11 in 2020 and 0.76 to 1.08 in 2025.

• 한국데이터정보과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2005.10a
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• pp.189-202
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• 2005

Recently, the decrease of the number of a high-school graduate influences the number of limit matriculation. Based on the resident registration population, we forecast for the number of a high-school graduate until 2022 year in Daegu city. Most college and universities in Daegu city have to reduce the 37.5% of the number of limit matriculation until 2022 year to avert a disaster by prompt action.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.933-942
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• 2005

Recently, the decrease of the number of the third graders in a high-school have serious influences on the number of a limit matriculation of colleges and universities. The purpose of this paper is to forecast for the number of a high-school graduate until 2022 year in Daegu city as based on the resident registration population. As the based period of 2004, most college and universities in Daegu city have to reduce the 37.5% of the number of limit matriculation until 2022 year to equal the number of the third graders in a high-school.

• 한국데이터정보과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2006.04a
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• pp.141-154
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• 2006

Recently, the decrease of the number of a high-school graduate influences the number of limit matriculation. Based on the resident registration population, we forecast for the number of a high-school graduate until 2022 year.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.969-977
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• 2005

Recently, the decrease of the number of a high-school graduate have serious influences on the number of a limit matriculation of colleges and universities. Based on the resident registration population, we forecast for the number of a high-school graduate until 2022 year in kyungbook. Most college and universities in Kyungbook have to reduce the 67.8% of the number of limit matriculation until 2022 year to avert a disaster by prompt action.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.141-148
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• 2007

Recently, Korean national center for education statistics & information exhibits the results of forecast educational statistics from 2007 to 2021 year. The purpose of this paper is to suggest the errors and problems on the results of forecast educational statistics and the distribution of the number of students.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.31 no.6
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• pp.677-692
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• 2018

The total fertility rate of Korea was 1.05 in 2017, showing a return to the 1.08 level in the year 2005. 1.05 is a very low fertility level that is far from replacement level fertility or safety zone 1.5. The number may indicate a low fertility trap. It is therefore important to predict fertility than at any other time. In the meantime, we have predicted the age-specific fertility rate and total fertility rate by various statistical methods. When the data trend is disconnected or fluctuating, it applied a nonparametric method applying the smoothness and weight. In addition, the Bayesian method of using the pre-distribution of fertility rates in advanced countries with reference to the three-stage transition phenomenon have been applied. This paper examines which method is reasonable in terms of precision and feasibility by applying estimation, forecasting, and comparing the results of the recent variability of the Korean fertility rate with parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian methods. The results of the analysis showed that the total fertility rate was in the order of KOSTAT's total fertility rate, Bayesian, parametric and non-parametric method outcomes. Given the level of TFR 1.05 in 2017, the predicted total fertility rate derived from the parametric and nonparametric models is most reasonable. In addition, if a fertility rate data is highly complete and a quality is good, the parametric model approach is superior to other methods in terms of parameter estimation, calculation efficiency and goodness-of-fit.

• International Area Studies Review
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.215-235
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• 2018

Policy concerns related to raising fertility rates are not only common interests among the OECD countries, but they are also issues of great concern to South Korea whose fertility rate is the lowest in the world. The fertility rate in South Korea continues to decline, even though most of the national budget has been spent on measures to address this and many studies have been conducted on the increase in the fertility rates. In this regard, this study aims to verify the effectiveness of the detailed factors affecting the fertility rate that have been discussed in the previous studies on fertility rates, and to investigate the overall trend toward enhancing the quality of life and increasing the fertility rate through macroscopic and structural studies under the recognition of problems related to the policy approaches through the case studies of the European countries. Toward this end, this study investigated if a high quality of life in advanced countries contributes to the increase in the fertility rate, which country serves as a state model that has a high quality of life and a high fertility rate, and what kind of social and policy environment does the country have with regard to childbirth. The analysis of the OECD Better Life Index (BLI) and CIA fertility rate data showed that the countries whose people enjoy a high quality of life do not necessarily have high fertility rates. In addition, under the recognition that a country with a high quality of life and a high birth rate serves as a state model that South Korea should aim for, the social characteristics of Iceland, Ireland, and New Zealand, which turned out to have both a high quality of life and a high fertility rate, were compared with those of Germany, which showed a high quality of life but a low fertility rate. According to the comparison results, the three countries that were mentioned showed higher awareness of gender equality; therefore, the gender wage gap was small. It was also confirmed that the governments of these countries support various policies that promote both parents sharing the care of their children. In Germany, on the other hand, the gender wage gap was large and the fertility rate was low. In a related move, however, the German government has made active efforts to a paradigm shift toward gender equality. The fertility rate increases when the synergy lies in the relationship between parents and children; therefore, awareness about gender equality should be firmly established both at home and in the labor market. For this reason, the government is required to provide support for the childbirth and rearing environment through appropriate family policies, and exert greater efforts to enhance the effectiveness of the relevant systems rather than simply promoting a system construction. Furthermore, it is necessary to help people in making their own childbearing decisions during the process of creating a better society by changing the national goal from 'raising the fertility rate' to 'creating a healthy society made of happy families'