• Title/Summary/Keyword: 추정적 의사

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The feasibility analysis of restoring the ecological integrity of the Namyang and Yugu streams (생태하천 복원사업의 경제적 편익 분석 - 남양천 및 유구천을 중심으로 -)

  • Lim, Seul-Ye;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.25-45
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    • 2015
  • The government has implemented the projects of restoring the ecological integrity of streams to improve its water quality and provide resting places with local residents. Because the projects require huge public investments, their economic feasibility should be investigated through ex-post examination of their benefits. This study attempts to analyze the economic feasibility of restoring the ecological integrity using specific cases of Namyang stream in Hwaseong, Gyeonggi and Yugu stream in Gongju, Chungnam. The contingent valuation (CV) method is employed to measure the benefits. To this end, a professional polling firm conducted two CV surveys of 210 and 209 households for Hwaseong and Gongju, respectively. The willingness to pay (WTP) model used in the study is based on utility difference approach and the single-bounded dichotomous choice spike model. The results reveal that the WTP for restoring ecological integrity of the Namyang and Yugu streams are estimated to be 3,140 and 10,121 won per household per year. Interestingly, the latter is about three times greater than the former. The quantitative information can be used in economic feasibility analysis of the projects of restoring the ecological integrity of the Namyang and Yugu streams.

An Study on the Role of Organizational Learning in the Technology Planning: An Empirical Study of Technology Planning on National R&D Program (기술기획 과정에 있어 조직학습을 통한 지식창출에 관한 연구: 국가연구개발사업 에너지R&D 과제기획에 대한 실증분석)

  • Kim, Bonggyun
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.303-330
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    • 2013
  • Korea has started new value creation which is the post catch-up innovation system from the catch-up innovation. Post catch-up innovation system is becoming the main R&D issue for Korea and is needed for the new concept of R&D management and planning frame. This study posed questionnaires : how to promote the knowledge creation in technology planning and what the role of organizational learning in the technology planning is. This paper suggests the relationship of success factors of knowledge creation in technology planning which is organized and operated by experts with different background. Based on the prior research on organizational learning, communications and collaborative interactions, four hypotheses that factors of knowledge creation in technology planning have positive relationship with organizational learning are extracted. This study adopts Structural Equation Modeling(SEM) to analyze the relationship between organizational learning and successful technology planning. The approach based on organizational learning and interaction will be useful for constructing the planning framework in the era of post catch-up innovation. This paper, therefore, suggests the possibility of new theoretical development and new research agenda.

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A Clinical Study of Child Abuse (아동학대로 진단된 환아의 임상적 고찰)

  • Choi, Yoon Jin;Kim, Shin Mi;Sim, Eun Jung;Cho, Do Jun;Kim, Dug Ha;Min, Ki Sik;Yoo, Ki Yang
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.50 no.5
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    • pp.436-442
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    • 2007
  • Purpose : To promote awareness and efforts by pediatricians to identity and prevent child abuse by investigation of characteristics of victim and types of injury caused by abuse. Methods : A retrospective study was performed with 20 patients who had been diagnosed or suspected as child abuse at Hallym University Hospital from January 1999 to December 2005. The medical records, radiologic documents, and social worker's notes were reviewed to investigate age, sex, visiting time, form of abuse, perpetrator, risk factor, and type of injury. Results : The mean age of the subjects was 2.8 years. Fourteen patients were between 0-1 years old, 2 patients between 1-6 years old, 3 patients between 7-12 years old, and 1 case over 13 years old. The ratio of male to female was 1:1. The majority of these patients (70%) visited via emergency department. Eight five percent of these patients reported with physical abuse, 5% psychological abuse, 5% sexual abuse, and 5% neglect respectively. The suspected perpetrator was the biological father in six cases, the biological mother in three cases, the stepmother in two cases, caregiver in one case, relatives in one case and "unknown" in six cases. Bruise and hematoma (80%) were the most common physical findings. Skull fractures were diagnosed in six cases, long bone fractures in two cases, hemoperitoneum in two cases, subdural hemorrhage in 10 cases, epidural hemorrhages in two cases, subarachnoidal hemorrhages in two cases, and retinal hemorrhages in five cases respectively. Seventeen cases required hospitalization and surgical operations performed were in nine cases. Four patients died and three patients had sequalae such as developmental delay and quadriplegia. Conclusion : Child abuse results in high mortality and morbidity in victims. Therefore early recognition and prevention is very important. Pediatricians should always suspect the possibilities of abuse in cases of fracture, intracranial hemorrhage, abdominal injury, or even any injury to the body. We recommend that the clinical investigation of suspicious children should include a full multidisciplinary social assessment, a skeletal survey and CT or MRI.

Performance of a Bayesian Design Compared to Some Optimal Designs for Linear Calibration (선형 캘리브레이션에서 베이지안 실험계획과 기존의 최적실험계획과의 효과비교)

  • 김성철
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.69-84
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    • 1997
  • We consider a linear calibration problem, $y_i = $$\alpha + \beta (x_i - x_0) + \epsilon_i$, $i=1, 2, {\cdot}{\cdot},n$ $y_f = \alpha + \beta (x_f - x_0) + \epsilon, $ where we observe $(x_i, y_i)$'s for the controlled calibration experiments and later we make inference about $x_f$ from a new observation $y_f$. The objective of the calibration design problem is to find the optimal design $x = (x_i, \cdots, x_n$ that gives the best estimates for $x_f$. We compare Kim(1989)'s Bayesian design which minimizes the expected value of the posterior variance of $x_f$ and some optimal designs from literature. Kim suggested the Bayesian optimal design based on the analysis of the characteristics of the expected loss function and numerical must be equal to the prior mean and that the sum of squares be as large as possible. The designs to be compared are (1) Buonaccorsi(1986)'s AV optimal design that minimizes the average asymptotic variance of the classical estimators, (2) D-optimal and A-optimal design for the linear regression model that optimize some functions of $M(x) = \sum x_i x_i'$, and (3) Hunter & Lamboy (1981)'s reference design from their paper. In order to compare the designs which are optimal in some sense, we consider two criteria. First, we compare them by the expected posterior variance criterion and secondly, we perform the Monte Carlo simulation to obtain the HPD intervals and compare the lengths of them. If the prior mean of $x_f$ is at the center of the finite design interval, then the Bayesian, AV optimal, D-optimal and A-optimal designs are indentical and they are equally weighted end-point design. However if the prior mean is not at the center, then they are not expected to be identical.In this case, we demonstrate that the almost Bayesian-optimal design was slightly better than the approximate AV optimal design. We also investigate the effects of the prior variance of the parameters and solution for the case when the number of experiments is odd.

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Estimation of Stand Growth and CO2 Removals for Juglans mandshurica Plantations in ChungJu, Chungcheongbuk-do in Korea (충북 충주지역 가래나무의 임목생장량 및 이산화탄소 흡수량 추정)

  • Son, Yeong Mo;Kim, Rae Hyun;Kim, Young Hwan;Lee, Kyeong Hak
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.98 no.6
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    • pp.646-651
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    • 2009
  • In this study, it was intended to prepare a stem volume table (with or without bark) and a stand yield table for Juglans mandshurica, plantations in Chungju, located in Chungcheongbuk-do, Korea. For the calculation of stem volume, we applied Kozak's growth model, which showed the best fitness index (97%). With this model, it was able to prepare the first yield table for Juglans mandshurica in Korea. Site index model, an indicator of forest productivity, was derived by using the Chapman-Richard model, in which the basic stand age was set to 30 years. The resulted site index ranged between 16 and 22. Based on the yield table of Juglans mandshurica resulted from this study, the volume for a 70-year-old stand with a midium site index class was estimated to be $238m^3/ha$, which is $100m^3/ha$ higher than the volume estimated from the yield table of Quercus acutissima. The yield table of oak trees has been used in the estimation of most broadleaf stands in Korea. However, the result of this study indicated that it is necessary to generate a stand yield table for each broadleaf species. The annual $CO_2$ removals of 30-year-old Juglans mandshurica plantations in the ChungJu region was estimated to be $5.84tCO_2/ha$. The stem volume and stand yield table of Juglans mandshurica plantation resulted from this study would provide a good information in decision making for forest management in ChungJu region.

A Study on Pseudo-Range Correction Modeling in order to Improve DGNSS Accuracy (DGNSS 위치정확도 향상을 위한 PRC 보정정보 모델링에 관한 연구)

  • Sohn, Dong Hyo;Park, Kwan Dong
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.43-48
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    • 2015
  • We studied on pseudo-range correction(PRC) modeling in order to improve differential GNSS(DGNSS) accuracy. The PRC is the range correction information that provides improved location accuracy using DGNSS technique. The digital correction signal is typically broadcast over ground-based transmitters. Sometimes the degradation of the positioning accuracy caused by the loss of PRC signals, radio interference, etc. To prevent the degradation, in this paper, we have designed a PRC model through polynomial curve fitting and evaluated this model. We compared two quantities, estimations of PRC using model parameters and observations from the reference station. In the case of GPS, the average is 0.1m and RMSE is 1.3m. Most of GPS satellites have a bias error of less than ${\pm}1.0m$ and a RMSE within 3.0m. In the case of GLONASS, the average and the RMSE are 0.2m and 2.6m, respectively. Most of satellites have less than ${\pm}2.0m$ for a bias error and less than 3.0m for RMSE. These results show that the estimated value calculated by the model can be used effectively to maintain the accuracy of the user's location. However;it is needed for further work relating to the big difference between the two values at low elevation.

Test of Hypothesis in Assessing Process Capability Index Cpmk (공정능력지수 Cpmk를 평가함에서의 바람직한 가설검정)

  • Cho, Joong-Jae;Yu, Hye-Kyung;Hana, Jung-Su
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.459-471
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    • 2010
  • Higher quality level is generally perceived by customers as improved performance by assigning a correspondingly higher satisfaction score. Usually, the quality level is measured by process capability indices. The index is used to determine whether a production process is capable of producing items within a specified tolerance. The third generation index $C_{pmk}$ is more powerful than two useful indices $C_p$ and $C_{pk}$. which have been widely used in six sigma industries to assess process performance. Most evaluations on process capability indices focus on point estimates, which may result in unreliable assessments of process performance. In this paper, we consider better testing procedure on assessing process capability index $C_{pmk}$ for practitioners to use in determining whether a given process is capable. It is easy to use the proposed method for assessing process capability index $C_{pmk}$. Whether a process is clearly normal or nonnormal, our bootstrap testing procedure could be applied effectively without the complexity of calculation. A numerical result based on our proposed method is illustrated.

Doubly-robust Q-estimation in observational studies with high-dimensional covariates (고차원 관측자료에서의 Q-학습 모형에 대한 이중강건성 연구)

  • Lee, Hyobeen;Kim, Yeji;Cho, Hyungjun;Choi, Sangbum
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.309-327
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    • 2021
  • Dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) are decision-making rules designed to provide personalized treatment to individuals in multi-stage randomized trials. Unlike classical methods, in which all individuals are prescribed the same type of treatment, DTRs prescribe patient-tailored treatments which take into account individual characteristics that may change over time. The Q-learning method, one of regression-based algorithms to figure out optimal treatment rules, becomes more popular as it can be easily implemented. However, the performance of the Q-learning algorithm heavily relies on the correct specification of the Q-function for response, especially in observational studies. In this article, we examine a number of double-robust weighted least-squares estimating methods for Q-learning in high-dimensional settings, where treatment models for propensity score and penalization for sparse estimation are also investigated. We further consider flexible ensemble machine learning methods for the treatment model to achieve double-robustness, so that optimal decision rule can be correctly estimated as long as at least one of the outcome model or treatment model is correct. Extensive simulation studies show that the proposed methods work well with practical sample sizes. The practical utility of the proposed methods is proven with real data example.

Development of a Practical Algorithm for en-route distance calculation (항로거리 산출을 위한 실용 알고리즘 개발)

  • GeonHwan Park;HyeJin Hong;JaeWoo Park;SungKwan Ku
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.434-440
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    • 2022
  • The ICAO (International civil aviation organization)recommended the implementation of the GANP (global air navigation plan) for strategic decision-making and air traffic management evaluation. In this study, we proposed a new method for finding the route distance from KPI (key performance indicator) 05 actual route extension presented for air traffic management evaluation. For this purpose, we collected trajectory data for one month and calculated the en-route distances using the methods presented in ICAO and the methods presented by this author. In the ICAO method, the intersection point must be estimated through the equation of a circle for radius 40 NM and the equation of a straight line for an inner and outer point close to a circle in the track data, and four flight distances are calculated to calculate the en-route distance. In the method presented in this study, two flight distances are calculated without estimating the intersection point to calculate the en-route distance. To determine the error between the two methods, we used the performance evaluation index RMSE (root mean square error) and the determination factor R2 of the regression model.

Performance Analysis of GPS and QZSS Orbit Determination using Pseudo Ranges and Precise Dynamic Model (의사거리 관측값과 정밀동역학모델을 이용한 GPS와 QZSS 궤도결정 성능 분석)

  • Beomsoo Kim;Jeongrae Kim;Sungchun Bu;Chulsoo Lee
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.404-411
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    • 2022
  • The main function in operating the satellite navigation system is to accurately determine the orbit of the navigation satellite and transmit it as a navigation message. In this study, we developed software to determine the orbit of a navigation satellite by combining an extended Kalman filter and an accurate dynamic model. Global positioning system (GPS) and quasi-zenith satellite system (QZSS) orbit determination was performed using international gnss system (IGS) ground station observations and user range error (URE), a key performance indicator of the navigation system, was calculated by comparison with IGS precise ephemeris. When estimating the clock error mounted on the navigation satellite, the radial orbital error and the clock error have a high inverse correlation, which cancel each other out, and the standard deviations of the URE of GPS and QZSS are small namely 1.99 m and 3.47 m, respectively. Instead of estimating the clock error of the navigation satellite, the orbit was determined by replacing the clock error of the navigation message with a modeled value, and the regional correlation with URE and the effect of the ground station arrangement were analyzed.