• Economic Analysis
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.1-40
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• 2021

Using an unobserved components model that features trend growth as a random walk, we find that GDP trend growth rates had gradually declined from the late 1980s to early 2010s in Korea. To uncover the underlying features of the slowdown, we use trend growth accounting. A major feature appears to be a significant decline in the growth rate of labor productivity. To be specific, the first gradual decline in trend growth, which started in 1988 and continued to 1998, is associated with a drop in TFP measured in labor-augmenting units. This finding is inconsistent with the hypothesis that the slowdown in GDP trend growth can be attributed to the 1997-1998 Korean financial crisis. Sluggish investment growth is behind the second period of the gradual slowdown, from 2002 to 2012.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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• 2002.05a
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• pp.33-43
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• 2002

자가용의 급증으로 대중교통 분담률 감소, 소득수준 향상으로 고급교통수단 선호, 비즈니스 교통수요 감소, 레저목적 통행량 증가, 여객은 점진적인 증가, 화물은 감소세 둔화, 고속철도 개통 및 전철화 등 선로망 확충으로 철도수송분담률 제고, 자가용 증가로 인해 수송량이 매년 감소추세(최근 연평균 감소률 ㅿ3.5％), 경제성장 등 소득상승과 무관하게 수요는 크게 증가하지 않을 것으로 예상(중략)

• Cement
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• s.200
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• pp.6-11
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• 2013

2013년 한국 경제는 1분기를 저점으로 회복세로 돌아섰으나 연간으로 잠재성장률 3.8%에 크게 못 미치는 2%대 중후반의 성장률을 기록할 것으로 보인다. 2014년 국내 경제는 수출 증가가 설비투자 증가로 이어지면서 경기 회복을 견인해 3%대 후반의 성장률을 기록할 전망이나, 잠재성장률의 하락 추세는 지속될 것으로 전망된다. 여기서는 현대경제연구원의 '2014년 국내 경제 전망' 보고서를 통해 2013년 경제의 특징, 2014년도 대외여건 및 경제 전망과 함께 정책 과제에 대해 살펴본다.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.105-148
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• 2023

This paper provides a new method of measuring the degree of technological progress which contributes to real economic growth based on Schumpeter's Trilogy. Using Microdata of Statistics Korea, the results of measuring and comparing the actual growth contribution of technological progress during the period 2003-2018 by the total factor productivity growth rate(growth accounting method), the R&D investment contribution rate, and the Schumpeterian innovation growth rate, respectively are as follows. First, the measurement of the real growth contribution of technological progress by the growth rate of total factor productivity and the growth rate of Schumpeterian innovation shows contradictory results. Second, when the growth rate of production is in a decreasing trend, the difference between the growth rate of production and the growth rate of total factor productivity increases compared to when it is in an increasing trend. Conversely, when there is an increasing trend, the difference between the growth rate of production and the growth rate of total factor productivity becomes smaller compared to when it is in a decreasing trend.. Third, the technological opportunity that affects the innovation growth rate, i.e., the contribution of R&D incentives to innovative growth is only 3.3%. The reason why this result is different from the existing perception of the contribution of technological progress to growth is that different entities are being measured while measuring the same term of technological progress. Therefore, the growth rate of total factor productivity should be used to measure macroeconomic efficiency, R&D investment should be used to measure the effectiveness of new technology supply, and the Schumpeterian innovation rate should be used to measure the economic impact of technological progress. The policy implications of the research results of this thesis are as follows: ① Transition from a policy of one-sided technology supply to a policy of convergence of technology supply and new technology demand support, ② Mission-oriented R&D policy and R&D policy that links national R&D with private R&D, ③ Reclassification of capital goods reflecting the degree of new knowledge.

• 월간 기계설비
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• s.27
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• pp.41-43
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• 1992

대우, 삼성, 현대경제사회연구소 등 국내 민간연구소들이 발표한 $\ulcorner$`93년 경제전망$\lrcorner$ 보고서에 의하면 내년도 우리 경제는 금년과 비슷한 성장률 6$\%$대의 저성장이 계속되고 설비투자 둔화세도 여전할 것으로 보이나 물가와 경상수지 적자는 다소 축소되고 금리수준도 낮아지는 등 경기안정화 추세가 더욱 뚜렷해질 것으로 나타났다. 또한 GNP성장률은 금년도 6.6$\%$(한국은행 전망치)와 같거나 약간 높은 성장을 보일 것이라고 내다봤다.

• 프린팅코리아
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.56-57
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• 2014

2013년까지 지속적인 경기 악화를 뒤로하고 2014년은 세계 경제 부진이 완화될 것이라는 전망이 쏟아지고 있다. 이에 따라, 국내경제는 장기추세성장률에 근접한 3.7% 내외의 성장을 보일 것으로 예상되고 있다.

• The Optical Journal
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• v.15 no.1 s.83
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• pp.13-16
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• 2003

올해 우리나라는 IT관련 업종에서 수출증가 추세가 지속될 것으로 보이나 선진국의 본격적인 수요증가를 기대하기는 어려울 것으로 예상되어 작년에 비해 증가율은 기술적으로 소폭 둔화될 전망이다. 본 고에서는 한국산업연구원에서 발표한 `2003년 산업전망` 보고서를 요약 정리했다.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.16 no.7
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• pp.71-78
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• 2018

The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of win-win growth activity of domestic large firms on their management performance. we classified the management performance into four factors such as ROE(Return On Equity), ROA(Return On Assets), net income to net sales and operating income to sales. The finding of this study is outlined as follows. This paper show that the win-win growth activity has a negative impact on the firms' management performance. This study shows that win-win growth activity could generate additional costs of business activity. So, we think that industrial policy is needed for expansion of win-win growth activity.

• Digital Contents
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• no.1 s.116
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• pp.22-23
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• 2003

디지털 콘텐츠 산업이 지식 기반 경제하에서 새로운 성장 엔진으로 각광받고 있다. 시장 조사기관에 따라 다소 차이가 있겠지만 지난 2001년 전세계 디지털콘텐츠 시장의 규모는 대략 8840억달러로 추산된다. 디지털콘텐츠 시장은 매년 20%이상의 성장률을 기록해 오는 2005년이면 1조 1700억달러 규모에 달할 것으로 예상된다. 이같은 추세에 발맞춰 국내 시장도 매년 40%이상 고속 성장할 전망이다. 이처럼 디지털 콘텐츠 시장이 성숙할 것으로 예상되면서 미국 일본 등 선진국들이 디지털 콘텐츠 산업의 육성에 박차를 가하고 있다.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.104 no.4
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• pp.677-684
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• 2015

This study analyzed a long-run growth trend of the forestry sector in the Republic of Korea, and forecasted the potential growth in the future after investigating main drivers of growth in the forestry sector through growth accounting analysis. Based on results, we finally suggested a direction to go forward in order to achieve a sustainable growth in the field. After Asia financial crisis, the growth rate of the forestry sector was getting stable with the fast recovery of Korean economy. While the main drivers of growth in the field was labor and capital accumulation in 1980s and 1990s, the main driver of growth has been the increment of capital accumulation since 2000. As the result of our analysis for forecasting the potential growth in the field, the contribution of labor, capital, TFP in total growth is expected as 0.09%, 1.58%, and -0.01%, respectively. The potential growth rate of the forestry sector during 2012-2020 is predicted to be 1.65% and the total production will become 36.25 trillion won.