• Title/Summary/Keyword: 총선

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Estimating the Number of Seats in Local Constituencies of a Party Using Exit Polls in the General Election (총선 출구조사에서 정당별 지역구 의석수 추정)

  • Kim, Ji-Hyun
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.59-70
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    • 2013

  • Exit polls failed to estimate the number of seats in the National Assembly for each party in the 2012 General Election, even though they estimated it in interval. Three major broadcast companies jointly carried out exit polls, but made projections independently. The exact methods of projection were not publicly released. This paper proposes confidence intervals for the number of seats in local constituencies using the results of exit polls, and conducted simulation studies to assess the performance of the cofidence intervals. The proposed confidence intervals were applied to the real data of 2012 General Election.

  • https://doi.org/10.5351/KJAS.2013.26.1.059 인용 PDF KSCI

Implication of the Election Result in line with the Nomination Conflicts of the Korean Political Parties: Based on the nomination of the ruling party and the opposition party in the 20th general election (한국 정당의 공천파동에 따른 선거 결과 함의 : 제20대 총선과정에서 여·야 정당의 공천을 중심으로)

  • Chung, Joo-Shin
    • Korea and Global Affairs
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.31-70
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    • 2017

  • On December 9, 2016, the decision of impeachment of the National Assembly decided against Park Geun-hye came from the nomination conflicts of the 20th general election between Pro-Park group and Anti-Park group at the ruling Saenuri Party. Therefore, this study focused on the nomination conflicts of the ruling party and the opposition party on the election results in the 20th general election on the public sentiment of the people. The nomination conflicts of the ruling and opposite parties were a prelude to the victory of the 19th presidential election, and it was serious faction conflict. Firstly, the study examined how the nomination conflicts of each party were centered on President Park Geun-hye as well as the leaders of each party and the chairman of the nomination committee. Secondly, the study examined what kind of changes would be made to the composition of presidential candidates for each party at the time of the presidential election. Thirdly, the study examined the opposition parties' separation between the Minjoo Party of Korea and the People's Party of Korea before and after the election and the issue of initiative in Honam. As a result of the analysis, the 20th general election failed to obtain a majority seat of the ruling Saenuri Party, and the opposition won and formed the majority. The reason why President Park and Saenuri were greatly defeated in the contest even in the situation where the opposition parties were divided is the root cause in the attitude of Pro-Park group and Anti-Park group who assumed their victory. Therefore, it is highly possible to render its responsibility to President Park Geun-hye, who has become a 'past power', and it has opened up the possibility that the emergence of future power by opposition parties. In the case of the opposition party, it is clear that the battle for Honam, which is a traditional opposition party's support group, is a matter of good fortune of the two major powers, Moon Jae In and Ahn Cheol Soo.

  • https://doi.org/10.22718/kga.2017.1.1.031 인용 PDF

NEWS&NEWS

  • The Korean Dental Association
    • The Journal of the Korean dental association
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    • v.42 no.5 s.420
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    • pp.328-329
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    • 2004

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