Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.5351/KJAS.2013.26.1.059

Estimating the Number of Seats in Local Constituencies of a Party Using Exit Polls in the General Election  

Kim, Ji-Hyun (Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Soongsil University)
Publication Information
The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics / v.26, no.1, 2013 , pp. 59-70 More about this Journal
Abstract
Exit polls failed to estimate the number of seats in the National Assembly for each party in the 2012 General Election, even though they estimated it in interval. Three major broadcast companies jointly carried out exit polls, but made projections independently. The exact methods of projection were not publicly released. This paper proposes confidence intervals for the number of seats in local constituencies using the results of exit polls, and conducted simulation studies to assess the performance of the cofidence intervals. The proposed confidence intervals were applied to the real data of 2012 General Election.
Keywords
Exit polls; multinomial distribution; Dirichlet distribution; p-value;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
연도 인용수 순위
1 Casella, G. and Berger, R. L. (2002). Statistical Inference, 2nd ed., Duxbury.
2 Hyun, K. B. (2005). A Study on the Election Poll and its Accuracy in the 17th General Election, Journal of Korea Regional Communication Research Association, 5, 301-336.
3 Kwak, E. S. and Kim, Y. W. (2010). A Total Survey Error Analysis of the Exit Polling for General Election 2008 in Korea, Survey Research, 11, 33-55.
4 Lee, J. W. (2004). Problems of the Election Forecasting in the 2004 Korean General Election, Journal of Communication Research, 41, 110-135.
5 R Development Core Team (2008). R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. ISBN 3-900051-07-0, URL http://www.R-project.org.