• Title/Summary/Keyword: 질병확산 모델

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Antibiotics-Resistant Bacteria Infection Prediction Based on Deep Learning (딥러닝 기반 항생제 내성균 감염 예측)

  • Oh, Sung-Woo;Lee, Hankil;Shin, Ji-Yeon;Lee, Jung-Hoon
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.105-120
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    • 2019
  • The World Health Organization (WHO) and other government agencies aroundthe world have warned against antibiotic-resistant bacteria due to abuse of antibiotics and are strengthening their care and monitoring to prevent infection. However, it is highly necessary to develop an expeditious and accurate prediction and estimating method for preemptive measures. Because it takes several days to cultivate the infecting bacteria to identify the infection, quarantine and contact are not effective to prevent spread of infection. In this study, the disease diagnosis and antibiotic prescriptions included in Electronic Health Records were embedded through neural embedding model and matrix factorization, and deep learning based classification predictive model was proposed. The f1-score of the deep learning model increased from 0.525 to 0.617when embedding information on disease and antibiotics, which are the main causes of antibiotic resistance, added to the patient's basic information and hospital use information. And deep learning model outperformed the traditional machine hospital use information. And deep learning model outperformed the traditional machine learning models.As a result of analyzing the characteristics of antibiotic resistant patients, resistant patients were more likely to use antibiotics in J01 than nonresistant patients who were diagnosed with the same diseases and were prescribed 6.3 times more than DDD.

A Study on Bottom of Pyramid(BOP) Business Approach to Reduce Water Poverty (물(水) 빈곤해소를 위한 BOP 비즈니스 가능성에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Woo-Kyu;Kim, Eun-Ju;Han, In-Soo
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.336-351
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    • 2015
  • This paper aims at investigating feasibility of social enterprise approach to water poverty, especially access to safe drinking water issue. Now. over 780 millions of people have no improved access to safe drinking water, which result in various diseases and high mortality in people of developing countries. Recently there is more growing interest on BOP business, a market approach which utilize vitality, innovativeness and profit motives of private business to tackle social problem like poverty. Many BOP businesses have been conducted in the form of social enterprise. In the paper, firstly the severe problems of no improved access to clean and safe drinking water were explained. Secondly, the potential of BOP business to address these problems was explored. Thirdly, some actual cases of social enterprises which successfully run their business were introduced. Fourthly, some business models for social enterprise to want to come into water market were discussed. Finally based on these discussions, some recommendation for Korean companies and government were also suggested.

Smart Healthcare: Enabling AI, Blockchain, VR/AR and Digital Solutions for Future Hospitals (스마트 헬스케어: 미래 병원을 위한 AI, 블록체인, VR/AR 및 디지털 솔루션 구현)

  • Begum, Khadija;Rashid, Md Mamunur;Armand, Tagne Poupi Theodore;Kim, Hee-Cheol
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.406-409
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    • 2022
  • In recent years, the developments in technologies, such as AI systems, Blockchain, VR/AR, 3D printing, robotics, and nanotechnology, are reshaping the future of healthcare right before our eyes. And also, healthcare has seen a paradigm shift towards prevention-oriented medicine, with a focus on consumers requirements. The spread of infectious diseases such as Covid-19 have altered the definition of healthcare and treatment facilities, necessitating immediate action to redesign hospitals' physical environments, adapt communication models to address social distancing requirements, implement virtual health solutions, and establish new clinical protocols. Hospitals, which have traditionally served as the hub of healthcare systems, are pursuing or being forced to reestablish themselves against this landscape. Rather than only treating ailments, future healthcare is predicted to focus on wellness and prevention. In personalized care, long-term prevention strategies, remote monitoring, early diagnosis, and detection are critical. Given the growing interest in smart healthcare defined by these modern technologies, this study looked into the definitions and service kinds of smart healthcare. The background and technical aspects of smart hospitals were also explored through a literature review.

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Implementation of integrated monitoring system for trace and path prediction of infectious disease (전염병의 경로 추적 및 예측을 위한 통합 정보 시스템 구현)

  • Kim, Eungyeong;Lee, Seok;Byun, Young Tae;Lee, Hyuk-Jae;Lee, Taikjin
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.69-76
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    • 2013
  • The incidence of globally infectious and pathogenic diseases such as H1N1 (swine flu) and Avian Influenza (AI) has recently increased. An infectious disease is a pathogen-caused disease, which can be passed from the infected person to the susceptible host. Pathogens of infectious diseases, which are bacillus, spirochaeta, rickettsia, virus, fungus, and parasite, etc., cause various symptoms such as respiratory disease, gastrointestinal disease, liver disease, and acute febrile illness. They can be spread through various means such as food, water, insect, breathing and contact with other persons. Recently, most countries around the world use a mathematical model to predict and prepare for the spread of infectious diseases. In a modern society, however, infectious diseases are spread in a fast and complicated manner because of rapid development of transportation (both ground and underground). Therefore, we do not have enough time to predict the fast spreading and complicated infectious diseases. Therefore, new system, which can prevent the spread of infectious diseases by predicting its pathway, needs to be developed. In this study, to solve this kind of problem, an integrated monitoring system, which can track and predict the pathway of infectious diseases for its realtime monitoring and control, is developed. This system is implemented based on the conventional mathematical model called by 'Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) Model.' The proposed model has characteristics that both inter- and intra-city modes of transportation to express interpersonal contact (i.e., migration flow) are considered. They include the means of transportation such as bus, train, car and airplane. Also, modified real data according to the geographical characteristics of Korea are employed to reflect realistic circumstances of possible disease spreading in Korea. We can predict where and when vaccination needs to be performed by parameters control in this model. The simulation includes several assumptions and scenarios. Using the data of Statistics Korea, five major cities, which are assumed to have the most population migration have been chosen; Seoul, Incheon (Incheon International Airport), Gangneung, Pyeongchang and Wonju. It was assumed that the cities were connected in one network, and infectious disease was spread through denoted transportation methods only. In terms of traffic volume, daily traffic volume was obtained from Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS). In addition, the population of each city was acquired from Statistics Korea. Moreover, data on H1N1 (swine flu) were provided by Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and air transport statistics were obtained from Aeronautical Information Portal System. As mentioned above, daily traffic volume, population statistics, H1N1 (swine flu) and air transport statistics data have been adjusted in consideration of the current conditions in Korea and several realistic assumptions and scenarios. Three scenarios (occurrence of H1N1 in Incheon International Airport, not-vaccinated in all cities and vaccinated in Seoul and Pyeongchang respectively) were simulated, and the number of days taken for the number of the infected to reach its peak and proportion of Infectious (I) were compared. According to the simulation, the number of days was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days when vaccination was not considered. In terms of the proportion of I, Seoul was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. When they were vaccinated in Seoul, the number of days taken for the number of the infected to reach at its peak was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days. In terms of the proportion of I, Gangneung was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. When they were vaccinated in Pyeongchang, the number of days was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days. In terms of the proportion of I, Gangneung was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. Based on the results above, it has been confirmed that H1N1, upon the first occurrence, is proportionally spread by the traffic volume in each city. Because the infection pathway is different by the traffic volume in each city, therefore, it is possible to come up with a preventive measurement against infectious disease by tracking and predicting its pathway through the analysis of traffic volume.

Analysis of Potential Infection Site by Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Using Model Patterns of Avian Influenza Outbreak Area in Republic of Korea (국내 조류인플루엔자 발생 지역의 모델 패턴을 활용한 고병원성조류인플루엔자(HPAI)의 감염가능 지역 분석)

  • EOM, Chi-Ho;PAK, Sun-Il;BAE, Sun-Hak
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.60-74
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    • 2017
  • To facilitate prevention of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), a GIS is widely used for monitoring, investigating epidemics, managing HPAI-infected farms, and eradicating the disease. After the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in 2010 and 2011, the government of the Republic of Korea (ROK) established the GIS-based Korean Animal Health Integrated System (KAHIS) to avert livestock epidemics, including HPAI. However, the KAHIS is not sufficient for controlling HPAI outbreaks due to lack of responsibility in fieldwork, such as sterilization of HPAI-infected poultry farms and regions, control of infected animal movement, and implementation of an eradication strategy. An outbreak prediction model to support efficient HPAI control in the ROK is proposed here, constructed via analysis of HPAI outbreak patterns in the ROK. The results show that 82% of HPAI outbreaks occurred in Jeolla and Chungcheong Provinces. The density of poultry farms in these regions were $2.2{\pm}1.1/km^2$ and $4.2{\pm}5.6/km^2$, respectively. In addition, reared animal numbers ranged between 6,537 and 24,250 individuals in poultry farms located in HPAI outbreak regions. Following identification of poultry farms in HPAI outbreak regions, an HPAI outbreak prediction model was designed using factors such as the habitat range for migratory birds(HMB), freshwater system characteristics, and local road networks. Using these factors, poultry farms which reared 6,500-25,000 individuals were filtered and compared with number of farms actually affected by HPAI outbreaks in the ROK. The HPAI prediction model shows that 90.0% of the number of poultry farms and 54.8% of the locations of poultry farms overlapped between an actual HPAI outbreak poultry farms reported in 2014 and poultry farms estimated by HPAI outbreak prediction model in the present study. These results clearly show that the HPAI outbreak prediction model is applicable for estimating HPAI outbreak regions in ROK.