• Title/Summary/Keyword: 직접추정모형

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Tidal asymmetry at estuarian regions - Youngsan-River estuary case (하구역의 조석비대칭 - 영산강하구 사례)

  • Kang, Ju Whan
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.17-17
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    • 2020
  • 일반적인 연안 해역에서 창조지속시간과 낙조지속시간은 거의 동일한 수준을 보여 조위곡선은 대칭적인 형태를 띠게 된다. 그러나 M4분조나 MS4분조와 같은 천해조가 발달된 해역에서는 그 모체가 되는 M2분조나 S2분조와의 상대적인 위상차에 따라 조위곡선이 비대칭적인 형상을 띠기도 한다. 창조지속시간이 길 경우 낙조시 최대조류속이 크게 되는 낙조우세가 형성되는 반면 낙조지속시간이 길 경우에는 반대로 창조우세가 형성된다. 소류사의 움직임은 유속의 6승에까지 비례하므로 이러한 최대조류속 차이에 따라 창조우세 또는 낙조우세 해역에서 소류사 이동량에는 큰 차이가 발생할 수 있다. 감조하천의 경우 상류로 갈수록 창조우세화하는 것이 일반적인 것으로 알려져 있으며 국내에서는 금강을 비롯한 군산해역이 대표적이다. 창조우세인 군산해역과 반대로 영산강하구 및 목포해역의 경우 낙조우세를 보이고 있는데, 그 근원은 황해에서의 순환특성과 함께 목포해역 인근의 드넓은 조간대에 기인하는 것으로 추정하고 있다. 특히 인접한 무안만에서는 낙조지속시간이 창조지속시간에 비해 2시간 이상 짧아 국내에서 가장 심한 수준의 낙조우세를 보이고 있으며, 영산강하구 낙조우세의 근원으로 평가되고 있다. 한편 조간대가 발달된 해역은 천해조 생성에 따라 낙조우세 경향이 있음과 관련하여 Kang and Moon(2001)은 조간대가 조석파의 전파와 천해조 발생에 미치는 영향성에 대하여 수치실험을 통해 연구한 결과 무안만의 낙조우세는 조간대의 발달에 기인함을 재확인한 바 있다. 따라서 낙조 우세를 수치모형을 통해 재현하기 위해서는 조간대 모의가 필수적임과 동시에 낙조우세를 재현하기 위해서는 천해조 개방경계 설정이 필요하다고 알려져 있다. 또한 이렇게 천해조가 발달된 하구에서 조석비대칭 현상은 퇴적물 이동에 직접적인 영향을 미치게 되는데 Kang et al.(2002)은 소류사 및 부유사 이동에서 이러한 영향성에 대한 연구를 수행한 바 있다. 그 결과 천해조가 발달된 이러한 해역에서 퇴적물 이동과 관련된 수치모의시 M2분조와 같은 천문조 경계조건에 부가하여 M4분조의 천해조까지 포함시킬 것을 제안한 바 있다. 이와 같이 하구역에서는 천해조 발달로 인해 조석비대칭이 두드러지게 발달되어 있는 경우가 많으며, 감조하천 상류로 갈수록 비대칭은 더욱 심화되는 경향이 있다. 따라서 감조하천 하류부에서 조석을 고려한 경계조건을 부여하여 하천의 흐름양상을 수치적으로 모의할 경우 천해조가 발달된 하구역에서는 천해조가 포함된 경계조건은 필수적이라 할 수 있다.

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The Financing Behavior and Financial Structure Determinants of Korean Manufacturing Firms (한국제조기업의 자금조달행태와 재무구조 결정요인에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Dong-Ryung
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.109-141
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    • 2006
  • The central factor in the pecking order theory of financial structure is the asymmetric distribution of information between managers and less-informed outside investors. Myers and Majluf (1984) show that this asymmetry leads managers to prefer internal funds to external funds. Funds are raised through equity issues only after the capacity to issue debt has been exhausted. In contrast, according to static tradeoff theory, an optimum financial structure exists by the tradeoff between tax saving by debt and bankruptcy costs. This study examines the recent changes of Korean firms' financial structure and financing behavior and the determinants of financial structure. The sample of firms comes from the period of $1996{\sim}2004$, and the number of firms is 32,003. The major findings are as follows. First, in contrast with previous studies using US firms as sample, Korean firms have been using debt financing as their major financing instrument. Especially, the firms in the fund deficit situation relies much more on $long{\sim}term$ and $short{\sim}term$ debts rather than on equity issues. Second, as is the case with previous studies using US firms sample indicates, the financing deficit variable can not explain perfectly the net debt issue. However, compared with net equity issue variable, net debt issue variable is more closely related to the financing deficit variable. Third, when financing deficit variable is added to the current list of explanatory variables of financial structure determinants model, it has a significant and positive explanatory power. In addition, the coefficients of determinants are much improved. Thus, it is concluded that although pecking order theory is not perfect, it appears to be more useful compared to static tradeoff theory, at least in explaining the recent financing behavior of Korean manufacturing firms.

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Prediction of Changes in Habitat Distribution of the Alfalfa Weevil (Hypera postica) Using RCP Climate Change Scenarios (RCP 기후변화 시나리오 따른 알팔파바구미(Hypera postica)의 서식지 분포 변화 예측)

  • Kim, Mi-Jeong;Lee, Heejo;Ban, Yeong-Gyu;Lee, Soo-Dong;Kim, Dong Eon
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.57 no.3
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    • pp.127-135
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    • 2018
  • Climate change can affect variables related to the life cycle of insects, including growth, development, survival, reproduction and distribution. As it encourages alien insects to rapidly spread and settle, climate change is regarded as one of the direct causes of decreased biodiversity because it disturbed ecosystems and reduces the population of native species. Hypera postica caused a great deal of damage in the southern provinces of Korea after it was first identified on Jeju lsland in the 1990s. In recent years, the number of individuals moving to estivation sites has concerned scientists due to the crop damage and national proliferation. In this study, we examine how climate change could affect inhabitation of H. postica. The MaxEnt model was applied to estimate potential distributions of H. postica using future climate change scenarios, namely, representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. As variables of the model, this study used six bio-climates (bio3, bio6, bio10, bio12, bio14, and bio16) in consideration of the ecological characteristics of 66 areas where inhabitation of H. postica was confirmed from 2015 to 2017, and in consideration of the interrelation between prediction variables. The fitness of the model was measured at a considered potentially useful level of 0.765 on average, and the warmest quarter has a high contribution rate of 60-70%. Prediction models (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) results for the year 2050 and 2070 indicated that H. postica habitats are projected to expand across the Korean peninsula due to increasing temperatures.

The Situation and the Tasks of UK Rail Privatization, Focusing on after the Hatfield Accident (영국 철도 민영화의 현황 및 과제 (Hatfield사고 이후의 변화를 중심으로))

  • Lee, Yong-Sang
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.24 no.2 s.88
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    • pp.91-100
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    • 2006
  • This paper examines the situation and tasks of UK rail privatization, especially focusing on after the Hatfield rail accident. Earlier research which focused on the UK's Privatization had little knowledge of the explanations for recent changes. Moreover they had difficulty making a direct comparison between national rail and the privatized rail. Therefore we aye left without a good explanation which has a comprehensive perspective. I attempt to show the change in the rail privatization Process and its outcome, focusing on after the Hatfield rail accident. This Paper argues that the UK's vail privatization process has a regulatory framework which is too complicated with overlapping responsibilities that brought about inefficiency, increasing costs and a superficial safety regime. Especially the planning of rail and infrastructure maintenance did not come to play an appropriate role. However after 2000, the government took charge of setting the strategy for railways, and the Office of Rail Regulation covered safety performance and cost. explain that these changes present a good opportunity to solve the problem of passing the buck for poor performance. Through the analysis, I find that the passenger rail network is well-suited to deliver long distance business and commuters and that the subsidy from the government is decreasing. However, performance, for example punctuality and reliability. should be improved. Especially the Hatfield rail accident caused a reduction in the satisfaction of passengers. In future. the problems of rising costs and monopoly franchise system should be addressed.

Information types and characteristics within the Wireless Emergency Alert in COVID-19: Focusing on Wireless Emergency Alerts in Seoul (코로나 19 하에서 재난문자 내의 정보유형 및 특성: 서울특별시 재난문자를 중심으로)

  • Yoon, Sungwook;Nam, Kihwan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.45-68
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    • 2022
  • The central and local governments of the Republic of Korea provided information necessary for disaster response through wireless emergency alerts (WEAs) in order to overcome the pandemic situation in which COVID-19 rapidly spreads. Among all channels for delivering disaster information, wireless emergency alert is the most efficient, and since it adopts the CBS(Cell Broadcast Service) method that broadcasts directly to the mobile phone, it has the advantage of being able to easily access disaster information through the mobile phone without the effort of searching. In this study, the characteristics of wireless emergency alerts sent to Seoul during the past year and one month (January 2020 to January 2021) were derived through various text mining methodologies, and various types of information contained in wireless emergency alerts were analyzed. In addition, it was confirmed through the population mobility by age in the districts of Seoul that what kind of influence it had on the movement behavior of people. After going through the process of classifying key words and information included in each character, text analysis was performed so that individual sent characters can be used as an analysis unit by applying a document cluster analysis technique based on the included words. The number of WEAs sent to the Seoul has grown dramatically since the spread of Covid-19. In January 2020, only 10 WEAs were sent to the Seoul, but the number of the WEAs increased 5 times in March, and 7.7 times over the previous months. Since the basic, regional local government were authorized to send wireless emergency alerts independently, the sending behavior of related to wireless emergency alerts are different for each local government. Although most of the basic local governments increased the transmission of WEAs as the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 increases, the trend of the increase in WEAs according to the increase in the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 was different by region. By using structured econometric model, the effect of disaster information included in wireless emergency alerts on population mobility was measured by dividing it into baseline effect and accumulating effect. Six types of disaster information, including date, order, online URL, symptom, location, normative guidance, were identified in WEAs and analyzed through econometric modelling. It was confirmed that the types of information that significantly change population mobility by age are different. Population mobility of people in their 60s and 70s decreased when wireless emergency alerts included information related to date and order. As date and order information is appeared in WEAs when they intend to give information about Covid-19 confirmed cases, these results show that the population mobility of higher ages decreased as they reacted to the messages reporting of confirmed cases of Covid-19. Online information (URL) decreased the population mobility of in their 20s, and information related to symptoms reduced the population mobility of people in their 30s. On the other hand, it was confirmed that normative words that including the meaning of encouraging compliance with quarantine policies did not cause significant changes in the population mobility of all ages. This means that only meaningful information which is useful for disaster response should be included in the wireless emergency alerts. Repeated sending of wireless emergency alerts reduces the magnitude of the impact of disaster information on population mobility. It proves indirectly that under the prolonged pandemic, people started to feel tired of getting repetitive WEAs with similar content and started to react less. In order to effectively use WEAs for quarantine and overcoming disaster situations, it is necessary to reduce the fatigue of the people who receive WEA by sending them only in necessary situations, and to raise awareness of WEAs.

A Study on the Differences of Information Diffusion Based on the Type of Media and Information (매체와 정보유형에 따른 정보확산 차이에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Sang-Gun;Kim, Jin-Hwa;Baek, Heon;Lee, Eui-Bang
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.133-146
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    • 2013
  • While the use of internet is routine nowadays, users receive and share information through a variety of media. Through the use of internet, information delivery media is diversifying from traditional media of one-way communication, such as newspaper, TV, and radio, into media of two-way communication. In contrast of traditional media, blogs enable individuals to directly upload and share news, which can be considered to have a differential speed of information diffusion than news media that convey information unilaterally. Therefore this Study focused on the difference between online news and social media blogs. Moreover, there are variations in the speed of information diffusion because that information closely related to one person boosts communications between individuals. We believe that users' standard of evaluation would change based on the types of information. As well, the speed of information diffusion would change based on the level of proximity. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to examine the differences in information diffusion based on the types of media. And then information is segmentalized and an examination is done to see how information diffusion differentiates based on the types of information. This study used the Bass diffusion model, which has been frequently used because this model has higher explanatory power than other models by explaining diffusion of market through innovation effect and imitation effect. Also this model has been applied a lot in other information diffusion related studies. The Bass diffusion model includes an innovation effect and an imitation effect. Innovation effect measures the early-stage impact, while the imitation effect measures the impact of word of mouth at the later stage. According to Mahajan et al. (2000), Innovation effect is emphasized by usefulness and ease-of-use, as well Imitation effect is emphasized by subjective norm and word-of-mouth. Also, according to Lee et al. (2011), Innovation effect is emphasized by mass communication. According to Moore and Benbasat (1996), Innovation effect is emphasized by relative advantage. Because Imitation effect is adopted by within-group influences and Innovation effects is adopted by product's or service's innovation. Therefore, ours study compared online news and social media blogs to examine the differences between media. We also choose different types of information including entertainment related information "Psy Gentelman", Current affair news "Earthquake in Sichuan, China", and product related information "Galaxy S4" in order to examine the variations on information diffusion. We considered that users' information proximity alters based on the types of information. Hence, we chose the three types of information mentioned above, which have different level of proximity from users' standpoint, in order to examine the flow of information diffusion. The first conclusion of this study is that different media has similar effect on information diffusion, even the types of media of information provider are different. Information diffusion has only been distinguished by a disparity between proximity of information. Second, information diffusions differ based on types of information. From the standpoint of users, product and entertainment related information has high imitation effect because of word of mouth. On the other hand, imitation effect dominates innovation effect on Current affair news. From the results of this study, the flow changes of information diffusion is examined and be applied to practical use. This study has some limitations, and those limitations would be able to provide opportunities and suggestions for future research. Presenting the difference of Information diffusion according to media and proximity has difficulties for generalization of theory due to small sample size. Therefore, if further studies adopt to a request for an increase of sample size and media diversity, difference of the information diffusion according to media type and information proximity could be understood more detailed.

Characteristics of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Charcoal Kiln (숯가마에서 발생하는 온실가스 배출 특성)

  • Lee, Seul-Ki;Jeon, Eui-Chan;Park, Seong-Kyu;Choi, Sang-Jin
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.115-126
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    • 2013
  • Recently Korea considers the source of biomass burning emissions reflecting national characteristic, so that includes the inventory of emission source but preceding research is rarely implemented in Korea. Therefore, a study on characteristics of greenhouse gas emissions from biomass burning is necessary and it also makes the source management effectively when the climate-atmospheric management system takes effect. In this study, using the manufactured charcoal kiln and the number of experiment was three times to get a reliable experiment result. The sampling time was decided by changing degree in charcoal kiln and charcoal manufacturing process. The results of calculation greenhouse gas emission factor from charcoal kiln were $668g\;CO_2/kg$, $20g\;CH_4/kg$, $0.01g\;N_2O/kg$. Using the emission factor developed in this study, estimate the emissions from charcoal kiln in Korea. The results of calculation were $46,040ton\;CO_2/yr$, $1,378ton\;CH_4/yr$, $0.69ton\;N_2O/yr$ and greenhouse gas emissions applying GWP are as follows. $CH_4$ emissions was $28,947ton\;CO_2eq./yr$, $N_2O$ emissions was $214ton\;CO_2eq./yr$. As a results, Gross emissions of charcoal kiln in Korea was $75,201ton\;CO_2eq./yr$, but the oak used in this study is included to the biomass so emissions of $CO_2$ are excluded. Therefore the net emissions of charcoal kiln in Korea was $29,161ton\;CO_2eq./yr$.

Analysis of Causality of the Increase in the Port Congestion due to the COVID-19 Pandemic and BDI(Baltic Dry Index) (COVID-19 팬데믹으로 인한 체선율 증가와 부정기선 운임지수의 인과성 분석)

  • Lee, Choong-Ho;Park, Keun-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.161-173
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    • 2021
  • The shipping industry plummeted and was depressed due to the global economic crisis caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in the US in 2008. In 2020, the shipping market also suffered from a collapse in the unstable global economic situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but unexpectedly, it changed to an upward trend from the end of 2020, and in 2021, it exceeded the market of the boom period of 2008. According to the Clarksons report published in May 2021, the decrease in cargo volume due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has returned to the pre-corona level by the end of 2020, and the tramper bulk carrier capacity of 103~104% of the Panamax has been in the ports due to congestion. Earnings across the bulker segments have risen to ten-year highs in recent months. In this study, as factors affecting BDI, the capacity and congestion ratio of Cape and Panamax ships on the supply side, iron ore and coal seaborne tonnge on the demand side and Granger causality test, IRF(Impulse Response Function) and FEVD(Forecast Error Variance Decomposition) were performed using VAR model to analyze the impact on BDI by congestion caused by strengthen quarantine at the port due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the loading and discharging operation delay due to the infection of the stevedore, etc and to predict the shipping market after the pandemic. As a result of the Granger causality test of variables and BDI using time series data from January 2016 to July 2021, causality was found in the Fleet and Congestion variables, and as a result of the Impulse Response Function, Congestion variable was found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. As a result of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, Congestion variable showed an explanatory power upto 25% for the change in BDI. If the congestion in ports decreases after With Corona, it is expected that there is down-risk in the shipping market. The COVID-19 pandemic occurred not from economic factors but from an ecological factor by the pandemic is different from the past economic crisis. It is necessary to analyze from a different point of view than the past economic crisis. This study has meaningful to analyze the causality and explanatory power of Congestion factor by pandemic.

The Relationship between Korean college students' Self-Construal and Alexithymia: Mediation Effects of Ambivalence over Emotional Expressiveness and Emotion Suppression according to the Deficiency of Independent Self-Construal (한국 대학생의 자기관과 감정표현불능증의 관계: 상호독립적 자기관 결핍에 따른 정서표현양가성 및 정서억제의 매개 효과)

  • Soyoung Kwon;Jarang Kwak;Bia Kim;Donghoon Lee
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.101-118
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    • 2019
  • Alexithymia refers to a psychological deficit of identifying and describing one's feelings. It has benn reported that the level of alexithymia of East-Asians is generally higher than that of Western Europeans. Recently one research conducted in U.S. suggested that the interdependent self-construal from East-Asians' collectivism culture might be a cause of this cross-cultural difference. In the current study, we examined the relationship between the level of independent and interdependent self-construal of Korean college students and their level of alexithymia, as well as their ambivalence over emotional expressiveness and emotion suppression. The correlation analysis shows that the Korean students' alexithymia level does not correlate with their level of interdependent self-construal, but negatively correlates with their level of independent self-construal. Moreover, it is also correlated with the level of ambivalence over emotional expressiveness(AEE) and emotion suppression(ES). Thus, we setup a double-mediation model between the deficiency of independent self-construal and alexithymia via AEE and ES, and estimate mediation effects using Hayes and Preacher(2014)s' Process analysis. The results show that the deficiency of independent self-construal has a direct effect as well as indirect effects of AEE and ES on the alexithymia level. Further analysis on the indirect effects reveals that the mediation effect of AEE and the double mediation effect of ES via AEE are significant, but the mediation effect of ES is not significant. Current results imply that the interdependent self-construal from the traditional collectivistic culture may not cause Korean college students' problems on the emotional expression, but the relatively lower independent self-construal may cause them. The deficiency of independent self-constural may raise up the level of self-defensive ambivalence over emotional expressiveness and suppress emotional expression by themselves, which can result in alexithymia.