• Title/Summary/Keyword: 직접추정모형

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Parameters Estimation of Clark Model based on Width Function (폭 함수를 기반으로 한 Clark 모형의 매개변수 추정)

  • Park, Sang Hyun;Kim, Joo-Cheol;Jung, Kwansue
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.6
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    • pp.597-611
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    • 2013
  • This paper presents the methodology for construction of time-area curve via the width function and thereby rational estimation of time of concentration and storage coefficient of Clark model within the framework of method of moments. To this end time-area curve is built by rescaling the grid-based width function under the assumption of pure translation and then the analytical expressions for two parameters of Clark model are proposed in terms of method of moments. The methodology in this study based on the analytical expressions mentioned before is compared with both (1) the traditional optimization method of Clark model provided by HEC-1 in which the symmetric time-area curve is used and the difference between observed and simulated hydrographs is minimized (2) and the same optimization method but replacing time-area curve with rescaled width function in respect of peak discharge and time to peak of simulated direct runoff hydrographs and their efficiency coefficient relative to the observed ones. The following points are worth of emphasizing: (1) The optimization method by HEC-1 with rescaled width function among others results in the parameters well reflecting the observed runoff hydrograph with respect to peak discharge coordinates and coefficient of efficiency; (2) For the better application of Clark model it is recommended to use the time-area curve capable of accounting for irregular drainage structure of a river basin such as rescaled width function instead of symmetric time-area curve by HEC-1; (3) Moment-based methodology with rescaled width function developed in this study also gives rise to satisfactory simulation results in terms of peak discharge coordinates and coefficient of efficiency. Especially the mean velocities estimated from this method, characterizing the translation effect of time-area curve, are well consistent with the field surveying results for the points of interest in this study; (4) It is confirmed that the moment-based methodology could be an effective tool for quantitative assessment of translation and storage effects of natural river basin; (5) The runoff hydrographs simulated by the moment-based methodology tend to be more right skewed relative to the observed ones and have lower peaks. It is inferred that this is due to consideration of only one mean velocity in the parameter estimation. Further research is required to combine the hydrodynamic heterogeneity between hillslope and channel network into the construction of time-area curve.

Local Correction of Tree Volume Equation for Larix leptolepis by Ratio-of-Means Estimator (평균비(平均比) 추정량(推定量)에 의한 낙엽송(落葉松) 입목(立木) 재적식(材積式)의 지역(地域) 보정(補正))

  • Shin, Man Yong;Yun, Jong Wha;Cha, Du Song
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.85 no.1
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    • pp.56-65
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    • 1996
  • Current volume tables might underestimate or overestimate the volumes of individual trees in a specific region because the tables were made using the data from broad region. This study provides a statistical method of local correction, which is the ratio-of-means estimator, when the table is applied to the data from a specific region. Data used in this study were 411 trees of Larix leptolepis from Hongchon region. Five statistical models for individual tree volume equation were evaluated based on 3 evalation criteria and the best equation fitted to the data from Hongchon region was selected. The volume estimated by the selected equation was then compared with the volume estimated by the current volume table. From the ratio-of-means estimate based on the volumes estimated by selected equation and by current volume table, the local correction was made. The correction equation was $V_{Hongchon}=1.078$ $V_{volume\;table}$. It is also proved that the correction equation can simply and precisely estimate tree volumes of Larix leptolepis in Hongchon region using the current volume table.

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Automatic Parameter Estimation of Hydrogeologic Field Test around Underground Storage Caverns by using Nonlinear Regression Model (비선형 회귀모형을 이용한 지하저장공동 주변 현장수리지질시험 매개변수의 자동 추정)

  • Chung, Il-Moon;Cho, Won-Cheol;Kim, Nam-Won
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.359-369
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    • 2008
  • For the design and effective management of underground storage caverns, preliminary investigation on the hydrogeologic parameters around caverns and analysis on the groundwater flow must be carried out. The data collection is very imporatnat task for the hydrogeologic design so various hydraulic tests have been performed. When analyzing the injection/fall off test data, existing graphical method to estimate the parameters in Theis' equation is widely used. However this method has some sources of error when estimating parameters by means of human faults. Therefore the method of estimating parameters by means of statistical methods such as regression type is evaluated as a useful tool. In this study, nonlinear regression analysis for the Theis' equation is suggested and applied to the estimation of parameters for the real field interference data around underground storage caverns. Damping parameter which reduce the iteration numbers and inhance the convergence is also introduced.

Analysis of Bias in the Runoff Results Due to the Application of Effective Soil Depth (유효토심을 적용한 유출해석 결과의 왜곡 분석)

  • Sunguk Song;Chulsang Yoo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.121-131
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    • 2023
  • This study examines the possible problem in the rainfall-runoff analysis process using the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) model caused by using the effective soil depth instead of the soil depth. The parameters of the model are determined as follows. First, parameters that can be determined using available numerical information are fixed. For parameters related to direct runoff and base runoff, the recommended values of the VIC model are applied. In the case of soil depth, four cases are considered: (1) the effective soil depth is applied as the soil depth, (2) 1.5 times of the effective soil depth is applied as the soil depth by reflecting the vertical structure of the soil layer, (3) 1.25 times of the effective soil depth, and (4) 2.0 times of the effective soil depth as alternative soil depths. This study simulates the rainfall-runoff for the period from 1983 to 2020 targeting the Chungju Dam and Soyang River Dam basins of the Han River system. As a result of the study, it is confirmed that when the effective soil depth is applied instead of the soil depth, direct runoff and baseflow have opposite effects, and direct runoff increases by more than 3% while base runoff decreases by the same scale. In addition, the most influential factor in the estimation of the effective soil depth in the Chungju Dam and Soyanggang Dam basins is found to be the proportion of rock outcrop area. The difference between the direct runoff ratio and the base runoff ratio in the two basins is conformed significantly different due to the influence of the rock outcrop area.

Analysis of University Students' Modal Shift for Commuting Trip Due to the Introduction of New Urban Rail Transit in Gyeongsan City - Comparison between SP Model Before the Introduction and RP Model After the Introduction - (대구 도시철도 경산 연장에 따른 대구-경산 간 대학생 통학통행의 도시철도 전환수요 분석 - 개통 전 SP모형과 개통 후 RP모형의 비교 -)

  • Yun, Dae-Sic;Lee, Chan-Hwi
    • Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.39-49
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    • 2016
  • The main objective of this paper is to analyze university students' modal shift for commuting trip due to the introduction of new urban rail transit in a satellite city of metropolitan area. The paper uses SP(2011)/RP(2013) data collected from Yeungnam University in Gyeongsan City, which is a satellite city of Deagu Metropolitan City. So far few researches, especially using before-and-after individual SP/RP travel survey, have been conducted on analyzing university students' modal shift due to the introduction of new urban rail transit. For this research, some descriptive statistical analyses were conducted. Furthermore, some empirical logit models were estimated for analyzing factors affecting the modal shift. Finally, some important findings and policy implications are discussed. The significant findings from this research are summarized as follows. From the descriptive statistical analyses of SP and RP data, it is found that the rate of modal shift to rail transit is relatively high especially for bus travellers. Furthermore, from the empirical SP model estimation, it is found that time saving is the most important factor affecting the modal shift to urban rail transit. On the other hand, from the empirical RP model estimation, it is found that residential location is the most important factor affecting the modal shift to urban rail transit.

Globalization and Regional Growth Gaps: A Korean Case (세계화와 한국의 지역간 성장격차)

  • Kwak, Ro-Sung;Chae, Hee Bong
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.152-167
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    • 2015
  • This paper analyzes the effects of globalization on growth gaps between regions. Using openness and FDI as measures of globalzation in Korean 16 broad autonomous territories the study estimates the effects of the variables on growth gaps between regions. Estimation results show that FDI is significant in explaining the regional gaps while openness is not. The results of the study reveal that attracting FDI to weaker regions, especially the investment in New Industries, is inevitable to resolve growth gaps and for balanced growth among regions. Also, policy makers should use FDI as an important tool for correcting regional gaps as well as the vehicles for regional development.

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Development of the Operating Cost Estimation Models to Evaluate the Validity of Urban Railway Investment (도시철도 투자타당성 평가를 위한 운영비용 추정모형 개발)

  • KIM, Dong Kyu;PARK, Shin Hyoung;KIM, Ki Hyuk
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.465-475
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    • 2016
  • Since inaccurate demand estimation for recent urban rail construction may result in financial burden to cities, precise prediction for operating cost as well as construction costs is necessary to avoid or reduce budget loss of the local or central government. The operating cost is directly related to the public fare and affect a policy to determine the rate system. Therefore, there is a pressing need to develop an estimating model for reliable operating cost of urban railway. This study introduces a new model to estimate the operating cost with new variables. It provides a better prediction in accuracy and reliability compared to the existing model, considering the feature of urban railway. For verification of our model, railway operation data from a few cities for the last five years were comprehensively examined to determine variables that affect the operating cost. The operating cost was estimated in a dummy regression model using five independent variables, which were average distance between stations, daily trains distance, total passenger capacity of a train in a train, driving mode(manned/unmanned), and investment type(financial/private).

A Study on the Improvement of Annual Runoff Estimation Model (연유출량 추정모형의 개선방안)

  • 이상훈
    • Water for future
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.51-62
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    • 1993
  • The most significant factor in estimating annual runoff must be the precipitation. But in the previous study, the watershed area instead of precitation was included as an independent variable in regression model in the process of checking accurate data. The criterion of accurate data was the runoff ratio in the range of 20% to 100%. In this study the valid range of evapotranspiration was adopted as a criterion of accurate data and the same data were reexamined. It came up with following model which has a high coefficient of determination and conforms to hydrologic theory. R=-518.25+0.8834P where, R: runoff depth(mm) P: precipitation(mm) This regression model was found to be stable by cross-validation and is proposed as annual runoff estimation model applicable to ungaged small and medium watersheds in Korea.

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국가간에 기술혁신수검속도측정에 관한 연구: 한국, 미국, 일본, 중국을 중심으로

  • 권성혁;조상섭
    • Proceedings of the Korea Technology Innovation Society Conference
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    • 2005.10a
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    • pp.184-198
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    • 2005
  • 본 연구는 우리나라를 중심으로 볼 때, 중요한 국가 간에 기술혁신의 수렴존재와 기술혁신의 수렴기간에 관한 실증연구를 목적으로 하였다. 분석결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 첫째, 선형적인 기술혁신의 확산을 가정한 결과로 볼 때, 분석대상국가간에 분석대산 국가 간에 기술혁신의 확산이 이루어지고 있지 않았다. 둘째, 보다 직접적인 기술혁신존재 및 확산기간을 측정한 결과 선형을 가정한 AR(1)모형에서 추정한 계수 값이 일본과 한국의 경우를 제외하고는 정상적인 형태로 나타났다. 셋째, 모수적 추정과 선형의 경우가 비모수적 추정과 비선형의 경우보다 기술혁신에 따른 수렴기간이 길게 나타났다. 특히 일본과 우리나라의 경우에는 선형을 가정하는 경우에는 기술혁신에 따른 수렴현상이 나타나지 않은 반면, 비선형인 경우에는 수렴현상이 나타났다. 마지막으로 미국과 우리나라의 기술혁신에 따른 수렴기간이 우리나라와 중국의 기술혁신에 따른 수렴기간보다 길게 나타났다. 따라서 기술혁신확산 및 수렴기간이 장기적인 경우 선형적인 기술혁신존재검증을 어렵게 할 수 있다는 가능성을 보여준다. 연구결과 정책적 시사점은 두 가지로 요약될 수 있다 첫째, 우리나라의 경우에 기술혁신수준이 중국이 쉽게 모방할 수 있는 정도로 매우 낮다고 볼 수 있다. 둘째, 우리나라에 대한 중국의 기술혁신 모방에 대한 정책적 시사점으로는 우리나라 기술혁신의 주기가 짧으면서 자주 일어나야한다.

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Simulation of Soil Erosion and Sediment Behaviors with Measured Field Slope Length and Slope in Hae-an Watershed using SWAT (해안면 유역의 실측 경사장과 경사도를 이용한 SWAT 토양유실량과 유사량 모의 평가)

  • Yoo, Dong-Sun;Heo, Sung-Gu;Jun, Man-Sig;Kim, Ki-Sung;Lim, Kyoung-Jae
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2008.05a
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    • pp.1082-1086
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    • 2008
  • 소양강댐 유역에서 몇 년간 계속되는 고탁수 문제가 좀처럼 개선되고 있지 않는 실정이다. 탁수발생의 원인은 여러 가지가 있지만 농경지를 중심으로 유입되는 토양유실이 가장 직접적인 원인으로 지적되고 있다. 특히, 고랭지 농경지에서 소득 작물에 대한 연작피해 경감, 작물의 생산성 향상과 농민들의 소득 증대와 연관되어 무분별하게 농경지에 행해진 객토와 농약 및 비료는 수질 악화의 매우 큰 영향을 미치고 있다. 이러한 문제로 인하여, 토양유실량 추정을 위한 여러 모형들이 개발되었다. 이 중, SWAT 모형은 미국 농무성의 농업연구소에서 개발된 유역단위 모형으로 대규모의 복잡한 유역에서 장기간에 걸친 다양한 종류의 토양과 토지이용 및 토지관리 상태에 따른 수문과 유사 및 농업화학물질의 거동에 대하여 예측하기 위해 개발된 모형이다. 이 SWAT모형은 유역내 수문 및 유사 모의시, DEM을 기반으로 유역 평균경사도를 이용하여 경사도-경사장 관계식 산정 경사장을 유역내 모든 수문학적 반응단위 (HRU: Hydrologic Response Unit)의 동일하게 적용한다. 이는 SWAT 모의 유사량과 실측 자료에 있어서 큰 차이를 초래할 수 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 해안면 지역의 모든 농경지에 대해 강원발전연구원에서 전수 조사한 실측 경사장 및 경사도 자료를 반영할 수 있도록 소유역내 모든 HRU에 면적 가중 경사도/경사장을 할당해 주는 프로그램을 개발하여 준분포 모형인 SWAT의 단점을 극복하였다. 그 결과 유출량의 경우 면적 가중 실측경사장 및 경사도를 적용 유무에 따라 월 평균유량 3,951,537 m3/month, 3,953,947 m3/month로 2,410 m3/month의 큰 차이를 보이지 않았지만, 유사량의 경우 면적 가중 실측경사장 및 경사도 적용 하였을 경우 10,826 ton/month 이고, 기존 SWAT 예측 유사량은 월평균 3,642 ton/month으로 7,184 ton/month (66.4 % 차이) 큰 차이를 보였다. 이러한 결과는 SWAT 모형 적용시 경사장 및 경사도 산정에 따라, 유사량이 과소 또는 과대 평가 될 수 있음을 보여준다.

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