• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.1
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• pp.63-83
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• 2019

Investors prefer to look for trading points based on the graph shown in the chart rather than complex analysis, such as corporate intrinsic value analysis and technical auxiliary index analysis. However, the pattern analysis technique is difficult and computerized less than the needs of users. In recent years, there have been many cases of studying stock price patterns using various machine learning techniques including neural networks in the field of artificial intelligence(AI). In particular, the development of IT technology has made it easier to analyze a huge number of chart data to find patterns that can predict stock prices. Although short-term forecasting power of prices has increased in terms of performance so far, long-term forecasting power is limited and is used in short-term trading rather than long-term investment. Other studies have focused on mechanically and accurately identifying patterns that were not recognized by past technology, but it can be vulnerable in practical areas because it is a separate matter whether the patterns found are suitable for trading. When they find a meaningful pattern, they find a point that matches the pattern. They then measure their performance after n days, assuming that they have bought at that point in time. Since this approach is to calculate virtual revenues, there can be many disparities with reality. The existing research method tries to find a pattern with stock price prediction power, but this study proposes to define the patterns first and to trade when the pattern with high success probability appears. The M & W wave pattern published by Merrill(1980) is simple because we can distinguish it by five turning points. Despite the report that some patterns have price predictability, there were no performance reports used in the actual market. The simplicity of a pattern consisting of five turning points has the advantage of reducing the cost of increasing pattern recognition accuracy. In this study, 16 patterns of up conversion and 16 patterns of down conversion are reclassified into ten groups so that they can be easily implemented by the system. Only one pattern with high success rate per group is selected for trading. Patterns that had a high probability of success in the past are likely to succeed in the future. So we trade when such a pattern occurs. It is a real situation because it is measured assuming that both the buy and sell have been executed. We tested three ways to calculate the turning point. The first method, the minimum change rate zig-zag method, removes price movements below a certain percentage and calculates the vertex. In the second method, high-low line zig-zag, the high price that meets the n-day high price line is calculated at the peak price, and the low price that meets the n-day low price line is calculated at the valley price. In the third method, the swing wave method, the high price in the center higher than n high prices on the left and right is calculated as the peak price. If the central low price is lower than the n low price on the left and right, it is calculated as valley price. The swing wave method was superior to the other methods in the test results. It is interpreted that the transaction after checking the completion of the pattern is more effective than the transaction in the unfinished state of the pattern. Genetic algorithms(GA) were the most suitable solution, although it was virtually impossible to find patterns with high success rates because the number of cases was too large in this simulation. We also performed the simulation using the Walk-forward Analysis(WFA) method, which tests the test section and the application section separately. So we were able to respond appropriately to market changes. In this study, we optimize the stock portfolio because there is a risk of over-optimized if we implement the variable optimality for each individual stock. Therefore, we selected the number of constituent stocks as 20 to increase the effect of diversified investment while avoiding optimization. We tested the KOSPI market by dividing it into six categories. In the results, the portfolio of small cap stock was the most successful and the high vol stock portfolio was the second best. This shows that patterns need to have some price volatility in order for patterns to be shaped, but volatility is not the best.

• Asia Marketing Journal
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.55-76
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• 2012

Most people prefer to choose zero-cost products they may get without paying any money. The 'zero-cost effect' can be explained with a 'zero-cost model' where consumers attach special values to zero-cost products in a different way from general economic models (Shampanier, Mazar and Ariely 2007). If 2 different products at the regular prices of ￦200 and ￦400 simultaneously offer ￦200 discounts, the prices will be changed to ￦0 and ￦200, respectively. In spite of the same price gap of the two products after the ￦200 discounts, people are much more likely to select the free alternative than the same product at the price of ￦200. Although prior studies have focused on the 'zero-cost effect' in isolation of other factors, this study investigates the moderating effects of a self-regulatory resource and a construal level on the selection of free products. Self-regulatory resources induce people to control or regulate their behavior. However, since self-regulatory resources are limited, they are to be easily depleted when exerted (Muraven, Tice, and Baumeister 1998). Without the resources, consumers tend to become less sensitive to price changes and to spend money more extravagantly (Vohs and Faber 2007). Under this condition, they are also likely to invest less effort on their information processing and to make more intuitive decisions (Pocheptsova, Amir, Dhar, and Baumeister 2009). Therefore, context effects such as price changes and zero cost effects are less likely in the circumstances of resource depletion. In addition, construal levels have profound effects on the ways of information processing (Trope and Liberman 2003, 2010). In a high construal level, people tend to attune their minds to core features and desirability aspects, whereas, in a low construal level, they are more likely to process information based on secondary features and feasibility aspects (Khan, Zhu, and Kalra 2010). A perceived value of a product is more related to desirability whereas a zero cost or a price level is more associated with feasibility. Thus, context effects or reliance on feasibility (for instance, the zero cost effect) will be diminished in a high level construal while those effects may remain in a low level construal. When people make decisions, these 2 factors can influence the magnitude of the 'zero-cost effect'. This study ran two experiments to investigate the effects of self-regulatory resources and construal levels on the selection of a free product. Kisses and Ferrero-Rocher, which were adopted in the prior study (Shampanier et al. 2007) were also used as alternatives in Experiments 1 and 2. We designed Experiment 1 in order to test whether self-regulatory resource depletion will moderate the zero-cost effect. The level of self-regulatory resources was manipulated with two different tasks, a Sudoku task in the depletion condition and a task of drawing diagrams in the non-depletion condition. Upon completion of the manipulation task, subjects were randomly assigned to one of a decision set with a zero-cost option (i.e., Kisses ￦0, and Ferrero-Rocher ￦200) or a set without a zero-cost option (i.e., Kisses ￦200, and Ferrero-Rocher ￦400). A pair of alternatives in the two decision sets have the same price gap of ￦200 between a low-priced Kisses and a high-priced Ferrero-Rocher. Subjects in the no-depletion condition selected Kisses more often (71.88%) over Ferrero-Rocher when Kisses was free than when it was priced at ￦200 (34.88%). However, the zero-cost effect disappeared when people do not have self-regulatory resources. Experiment 2 was conducted to investigate whether constual levels influence the magnitude of the 'zero-cost effect'. To manipulate construal levels, 4 different 'why (in the high construal level condition)' or 'how (in the low construal level condition)' questions about health management were asked. They were presented with 4 boxes connected with downward arrows. In a box at the top, there was one question, 'Why do I maintain good physical health?' or 'How do I maintain good physical health?' Subjects inserted a response to the question of why or how they would maintain good physical health. Similar tasks were repeated for the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th responses. After the manipulation task, subjects were randomly assigned either to a decision set with a zero-cost option, or to a set without it, as in Experiment 1. When a low construal level is primed with 'how', subjects chose free Kisses (60.66%) more often over Ferrero-Rocher than they chose ￦200 Kisses (42.19%) over ￦400 FerreroRocher. On contrast, the zero-cost effect could not be observed any longer when a high construal level is primed with 'why'.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.23 no.3
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• pp.155-175
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• 2017

As social data become into the spotlight, mainstream web search engines provide data indicate how many people searched specific keyword: Web Search Traffic data. Web search traffic information is collection of each crowd that search for specific keyword. In a various area, web search traffic can be used as one of useful variables that represent the attention of common users on specific interests. A lot of studies uses web search traffic data to nowcast or forecast social phenomenon such as epidemic prediction, consumer pattern analysis, product life cycle, financial invest modeling and so on. Also web search traffic data have begun to be applied to predict tourist inbound. Proper demand prediction is needed because tourism is high value-added industry as increasing employment and foreign exchange. Among those tourists, especially Chinese tourists: Youke is continuously growing nowadays, Youke has been largest tourist inbound of Korea tourism for many years and tourism profits per one Youke as well. It is important that research into proper demand prediction approaches of Youke in both public and private sector. Accurate tourism demands prediction is important to efficient decision making in a limited resource. This study suggests improved model that reflects latest issue of society by presented the attention from group of individual. Trip abroad is generally high-involvement activity so that potential tourists likely deep into searching for information about their own trip. Web search traffic data presents tourists' attention in the process of preparation their journey instantaneous and dynamic way. So that this study attempted select key words that potential Chinese tourists likely searched out internet. Baidu-Chinese biggest web search engine that share over 80%- provides users with accessing to web search traffic data. Qualitative interview with potential tourists helps us to understand the information search behavior before a trip and identify the keywords for this study. Selected key words of web search traffic are categorized by how much directly related to "Korean Tourism" in a three levels. Classifying categories helps to find out which keyword can explain Youke inbound demands from close one to far one as distance of category. Web search traffic data of each key words gathered by web crawler developed to crawling web search data onto Baidu Index. Using automatically gathered variable data, linear model is designed by multiple regression analysis for suitable for operational application of decision and policy making because of easiness to explanation about variables' effective relationship. After regression linear models have composed, comparing with model composed traditional variables and model additional input web search traffic data variables to traditional model has conducted by significance and R squared. after comparing performance of models, final model is composed. Final regression model has improved explanation and advantage of real-time immediacy and convenience than traditional model. Furthermore, this study demonstrates system intuitively visualized to general use -Youke Mining solution has several functions of tourist decision making including embed final regression model. Youke Mining solution has algorithm based on data science and well-designed simple interface. In the end this research suggests three significant meanings on theoretical, practical and political aspects. Theoretically, Youke Mining system and the model in this research are the first step on the Youke inbound prediction using interactive and instant variable: web search traffic information represents tourists' attention while prepare their trip. Baidu web search traffic data has more than 80% of web search engine market. Practically, Baidu data could represent attention of the potential tourists who prepare their own tour as real-time. Finally, in political way, designed Chinese tourist demands prediction model based on web search traffic can be used to tourism decision making for efficient managing of resource and optimizing opportunity for successful policy.