• Title/Summary/Keyword: 지하수위 예측

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Time-series Analysis and Prediction of Future Trends of Groundwater Level in Water Curtain Cultivation Areas Using the ARIMA Model (ARIMA 모델을 이용한 수막재배지역 지하수위 시계열 분석 및 미래추세 예측)

  • Baek, Mi Kyung;Kim, Sang Min
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.65 no.2
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2023
  • This study analyzed the impact of greenhouse cultivation area and groundwater level changes due to the water curtain cultivation in the greenhouse complexes. The groundwater observation data in the Miryang study area were used and classified into greenhouse and field cultivation areas to compare the groundwater impact of water curtain cultivation in the greenhouse complex. We identified the characteristics of the groundwater time series data by the terrain of the study area and selected the optimal model through time series analysis. We analyzed the time series data for each terrain's two representative groundwater observation wells. The Seasonal ARIMA model was chosen as the optimal model for riverside well, and for plain and mountain well, the ARIMA model and Seasonal ARIMA model were selected as the optimal model. A suitable prediction model is not limited to one model due to a change in a groundwater level fluctuation pattern caused by a surrounding environment change but may change over time. Therefore, it is necessary to periodically check and revise the optimal model rather than continuously applying one selected ARIMA model. Groundwater forecasting results through time series analysis can be used for sustainable groundwater resource management.

Inundation Analysis of Agricultural Land considering Climate Change and Cultivation Environment Change (기후변화 및 재배환경 변화를 고려한 농경지 침수 분석 연구)

  • Cho, Hyungon;Jeong, Seok Je;Lee, Jaenam;An, Hyunuk;Choi, Kyung Sook
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2021.06a
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    • pp.242-242
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    • 2021
  • 지구온난화에 의해 야기된 기후변화로 인하여 최근 국지성 집중호우의 발생 빈도와 강도가 증가하고 있는 추세이며, 또한 기온, 강수량 등의 변화로 농경지 재배작물과 시설재배와 같은 재배방법의 변화 등 농경지의 재배환경이 빠르게 변화하고 있다. 이러한 극한기상의 발생 빈도 및 강도의 증가와 농경지 재배환경의 변화는 홍수로 인한 하천수 범람, 지하수위 상승, 배수불량, 도달시간의 감소 등 저지대 재배지 및 농경지에서의 침수 위험을 증가 시키는 원인이다. 이로 인해, 매년 농경지 침수로 인하여 많은 농가들이 피해를 겪고 있으며 피해 규모와 빈도 또한 증가하고 있는 추세를 보이고 있다. 따라서 농경지 침수 피해 저감을 위하여 다양한 관계기관과 연구자들이 배수개선사업 및 침수 예측 및 피해 저감을 위한 연구를 수행하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화 및 재배환경의 변화가 농경지 침수에 미치는 영향을 분석하기 위하여 기상청 종관기상관측장비(ASOS) 및 방재기상관측장비(AWS)의 지점 강수량 자료를 수집하고 기후변화의 변동 특성을 분석하였다. 또한 과거 농경지 재배 현황 및 침수 피해 발생 자료를 수집하여 농경지 재배환경의 변화와 농경지 침수 피해를 분석하였다. 본 연구에서 수행된 기후변화 및 농경지 재배환경 변화 등 복합적인 요인에 의해 발생하는 농경지 침수 피해에 대한 분석을 통하여 추후 기후변화 및 재배환경 변화를 고려한 배수시설물의 효율적인 운영을 위한 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

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The Study on the Confidence Building for Evaluation Methods of a Fracture System and Its Hydraulic Conductivity (단열체계 및 수리전도도의 해석신뢰도 향상을 위한 평가방법 연구)

  • Cho Sung-Il;Kim Chun-Soo;Bae Dae-Seok;Kim Kyung-Su;Song Moo-Young
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.15 no.2 s.42
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    • pp.213-227
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    • 2005
  • This study aims to assess the problems with investigation method and to suggest the complementary solutions by comparing the predicted data from surface investigation with the outcome data from underground cavern. In the study area, one(NE-1) of 6 fracture zones predicted during the surface investigation was only confirmed in underground caverns. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the confidence level for prediction. In this study, the fracture classification criteria was quantitatively suggested on the basis of the BHTV images of NE-1 fracture zone. The major orientation of background fractures in rock mass was changed at the depth of the storage cavern, the length and intensity were decreased. These characteristics result in the deviation of predieted predicted fracture properties and generate the investigation bias depending on the bore hole directions and investigated scales. The evaluation of hydraulic connectivity in the surface investigation stage needs to be analyze by the groundwater pressures and hydrochemical properties from the monitoring bore hole(s) equipped with a double completion or multi-packer system during the test bore hole is pumping or injecting. The hydraulic conductivities in geometric mean measured in the underground caverns are 2-3 times lower than those from the surface and furthermore the horizontal hydraulic conductivity in geometric mean is six times lower than the vertical one. To improve confidence level of the hydraulic conductivity, the orientation of test hole should be considered during the analysis of the hydraulic conductivity and the methodology of hydro-testing and interpretation should be based on the characteristics of rock mass and investigation purposes.

Infinite Slope Stability Analysis based on Rainfall Pattern in Ulleung-do (울릉도지역 강우패턴을 고려한 무한사면 안정성 해석)

  • Lee, Chung-Ki;Moon, Seong-Woo;Yun, Hyun-Seok;Seo, Yong-Seok
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.11-24
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of slope stability analysis is to predict the location and occurrence time considering the rainfall, topographic and soil characteristics, etc. In this study, infinite slope stability analysis considering the time distribution characteristics of the daily maximum rainfall was conducted using a model that combines a digital terrain model and a groundwater flow model. As the results of slope stability analysis, 69.1~70.0% of Fs < 1 cells are in the range of slope angle $20{\sim}50^{\circ}$ and Fs < 1 starts to appear in 2 hours for $Q_1$ model, 5 hours for $Q_2$, 7 hours for $Q_3$ and 6 hours for $Q_4$. Furthermore, the maximum number of Fs < 1 cells appear in 6 hours for $Q_1$ model, 12 hours for $Q_2$, 16 hours for $Q_3$ and 20 hours for $Q_4$, and the area of Fs < 1 is 14.3% for $Q_1$ model, 15.0% for $Q_2$, 15.6% for $Q_3$, and 16.3% for $Q_4$.

Assessment of Landslide Susceptibility of Physically Based Model Considering Characteristics of the Unsaturated Soil (불포화지반 특성을 고려한 물리적 사면 모델 기반의 산사태 취약성 분석)

  • Kim, Jin Seok;Park, Hyuck Jin
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.47 no.1
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    • pp.49-59
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    • 2014
  • Rainfall-induced landslides are caused by reduction of effective stress and shear strength due to rainfall infiltration. In order to analyze the susceptibility of landslides, the statistical analysis approach has been used widely but this approach has the limitation which cannot take into account of landslide triggering mechanism. Therefore, the physically based model which can consider the process of landslide occurrence was proposed and commonly used. However, the most previous physically based model analyses evaluate and consider the strength characteristics for saturated soil only in the susceptibility analysis. But the strength parameters for unsaturated soil such as matric suction should be considered with the strength parameters for saturated soil since the shear strength in unsaturated soil also plays important role in the stability of slope. Consequently this study suggested the modified physically based slope model which can evaluate strength characteristics for both of saturated and unsaturated soils. In addition, this study evaluated the thickness of saturated part in slope with rainfall intensity and hydraulic characteristics of slope on the basis of physically based model. In order to evaluate the feasibility, the proposed model was applied to practical example in Jinbu area, Gangwon-do, which was experienced large amount of landslides in July 2006. The ROC graph analysis was used to evaluate the validation of the model, and the analysis results were compared with the results of the previous analysis approach.

Numerical Method for Transient Pressure on Canals (개수로(開水路)에 작용(作用)하는 부정압력(不定壓力)에 관한 수치모형(數値模型))

  • Lee, Kil Seong
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.35-43
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    • 1984
  • The purpose of this paper is to develop a mathematical model which can be used to compute the position of the free surface due to water level fluctuations in the canal and the transient pressure distributions along the canal lining. The diagnostic equation has been solved by the point successive over-relaxation method, and the linearized prognostic equation has been solved by the implicit Lax-Wendroff scheme. Four different cases in the simulation conditions are presented for both permeable and impermeable canal lining to predict the transient seepage surface development.

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The role of geophysics in understanding salinisation in Southwestern Queensland (호주 Queensland 남서부 지역의 염분작용 조사)

  • Wilkinson Kate;Chamberlain Tessa;Grundy Mike
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.78-85
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    • 2005
  • This study, combining geophysical and environmental approaches, was undertaken to investigate the causes of secondary salinity in the Goondoola basin, in southwestern Queensland. Airborne radiometric, electromagnetic and ground electromagnetic datasets were acquired, along with data on soils and subsurface materials and groundwater. Relationships established between radiometric, elevation data, and measured material properties allowed us to generate predictive maps of surface materials and recharge potential. Greatest recharge to the groundwater is predicted to occur on the weathered bedrock rises surrounding the basin. Electromagnetic data (airborne, ground, and downhote), used in conjunction with soil and drillhole measurements, were used to quantify regolith salt store and to define the subsurface architecture. Conductivity measurements reflect soil salt distribution. However, deeper in the regolith, where the salt content is relatively constant, the AEM signal is influenced by changes in porosity or material type. This allowed the lateral distribution of bedrock weathering zones to be mapped. Salinisation in this area occurs because of local-andintermediate-scale processes, controlled strongly by regolith architecture. The present surface outbreak is the result of evaporative concentration above shallow saline groundwater, discharging at break of slope. The integration of surficial and subsurface datasets allowed the identification of similar landscape settings that are most at risk of developing salinity with groundwater rise. This information is now being used by local land managers to refine management choices that prevent excess recharge and further salt mobilisation.

Technological Development Trends for Underground Safety in Urban Construction (도심지 공사시 지하안전 확보를 위한 기술개발 동향)

  • Baek, Yong;Kim, Woo Seok
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.343-350
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    • 2017
  • Amid increasingly saturated ground space, development of underground space has been booming throughout the world and excavation has been underway near the structure above or under the ground level. But the ground subsidence caused by improper or poor construction technologies, underground water leakage, sudden changes of stratum and the problem with earth retaining system component has been emerged as hot social issue. To deal with such problems nationwide, establishment of preventive and proactive disaster management and rapid restoration system has been pushed now. In this study, collection of the data on technology development trend to secure the underground safety was made, taking into account of internal change elements (changing groundwater level, damage to underground utilities, etc) and external change elements (vehicle load, earthquake and ground excavation, etc) during excavation. Amid the growing need of ground behavior analysis, ground subsidence evaluation technology, safe excavation to prevent ground subsidence and reinforcement technology, improvement of rapid restoration technology in preparation for ground subsidence and development of independent capability, this study is intended to introduce the technology development in a bid to prevent the ground subsidence during excavation. It's categorized into prediction/evaluation technology, complex detect technology, waterproof reinforcement technology, rapid restoration technology and excavation technology which, in part, has been in process now.

A Study about Effectiveness and Usefulness of a FEM Slug Test Model (유한 요소기법을 이용한 Slug시험 모델의 타당성 및 유용성 연구)

  • 한혜정;최종근
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Groundwater Environment
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.89-96
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    • 2000
  • Slug tests are the most widely used field method for quantification of hydraulic conductivity of porous media. Well recovery is affected by well casing, borehole radii, screened length, hydraulic conductivity, and specific storage of porous media. In this study, a new slug tests model was developed through finite element approximation and the validity and usefulness of the model were tested in various ways. Water level fluctuation in a well under slug test and cons-equent groundwater flow in the surrounding porous medium were appropriately coupled through estimation of well-flux using an iteration technique. Numerical accuracy of the model was verified using the Cooper et al. (1967) solution. The model has advantages in simulations for monitored slug tests, partial penetration, and inclusion of storage factor. Volume coverage of slug tests is significantly affected by storage factor. Magnitude and speed of propagation of head changes from a well increases as storage factor becomes low. It will be beneficial to use type curves of monitored head transients in the surrounding porous formation for estimation of specific storage. As the vertical component of groundwater flow is enhanced, the influence of storage factor on well recovery decreases. For a radial-vertical flow around a partially penetrated well, deviations between hydraulic estimates by various methods and data selection of recovery curve are negligible on practical purposes, whereas the deviations are somewhat significant for a radial flow.

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Estimation of Thermal Conductivity of Weathered Granite Soils (화강풍화토의 열전도도 산정에 대한 연구)

  • Park, Hyunku;Park, Hansol;Lee, Seung-Rae;Go, Gyu-Hyun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.32 no.2C
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    • pp.69-77
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    • 2012
  • In general, geothermal energy pile and horizontal ground heat exchangers are installed in shallower depths than conventional vertical ground coupled heat pumps. Consequently their heat exchange performance is strongly governed by thermal conductivity of soil layer. Previous studies have shown that the thermal conductivity of soil above ground water table significantly affects the heat exchange rate because of partially saturated condition in soil and consequent variation of soil thermal conductivity. This paper presents a study result on the prediction of thermal conductivity of weathered granite soils. For weathered granite soils sampled from 5 locations, thermal conductivity tests were conducted with varying porosity and degree of saturation. The existing thermal conductivity models in literatures appeared inappropriate to the weathered granite soils. Hence, an empirical equation was proposed in this paper and its validity was examined by applying it to thermal conductivity test results obtained for weathered granite soils in this study and from literatures.