• Title/Summary/Keyword: 지진 방재

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The development of Vine Copula based Tsunami height for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (Vine Copula 기반 확률론적 지진해일 재해도 분석 방법 개발)

  • Yu, Jae-Ung;Kim, Byung-Ho;Cho, Yong-Sik;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.272-272
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    • 2022
  • 지진해일에 대한 분석은 주로 물리적인 계산에 의하여 이루어지고 있으나, 다수의 매개변수가 복잡하게 얽혀있어 계산이 오래 걸리고 해당 지진해일에 대한 분석은 지진해일이 발생한 후에 단층을 조사하여 매개변수를 산정하므로 준실시간에 해당하는 예측이 어렵다. 또한, 지진해일을 예측하는 모형을 구축하기 위해서는 충분한 지진해일에 대한 자료가 필수적이나, 국내의 지진해일은 지난 100년간 4건의 지진해일이 발생하여 자료 역시 불충분하다. 그러나, 일반적으로 지진해일은 주기적이지 않고 빈도가 많지 않으나, 지진해일로 인한 피해는 주요한 사회 기반 시설 및 막대한 인명피해를 야기하므로 지진해일 피해를 저감하기 위한 방안이 필요하다. 확률론적 지진해일 재해도 평가(Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment; PTHA)시에 주로 지역적인 범위에서 수행되어 자료의 특성을 고려하여 수행해야하나, 현재 지진해일고에 대한 분포를 대수정규분포로 하여 지역적인 특성이 고려되지 않고 있다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 국내의 지역적 특성을 고려하기 위하여 단층매개변수와 지진해일고와의 Vine Copula 기법을 활용하여 관계성을 파악하고 국내에서 발생가능한 지진해일에 대한 위험도 평가를 수행하였다. 본 연구에서 선정된 지진해일고 클러스터링 결과를 활용하여 향후 지진해일에 대한 방재대책 시에 기초자료로 활용할 수 있을 것으로 예상된다.

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A Comparative Analysis of Korea-Japan Seismic Recovery System (한일 지진 복구체계의 비교 분석)

  • Lee, JunBeom
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.458-471
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: In Korea, the frequency and frequency of earthquakes are increasing every year. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to compare and analyze the characteristics and examples of earthquakes in Korea and Japan, and to propose improvements to the earthquake prevention policy in Korea. Method: In this study, we investigate and evaluate Japan's response in two cases: the Kobe earthquake and the East Japan earthquake. After surveying and evaluating the nation's countermeasures in the two events, Gyeongju and Pohang, they were compared. Result: When comparing recovery systems in Korea and Japan, there were significant differences in plans for restoration of road transport networks, regional disaster prevention plans, and the introduction of Conclusion: considering the physical distance between Korea's earthquake-prone areas and the capital, the government should quickly come up with countermeasures to ensure that immediate earthquake response in the region is enhanced through the detailed establishment of the Functional Continuity Plan (COOP), and that administrative functions will function normally in the event of a disaster through the introduction of the administrative BCP concept.

Tsunami Propagation Model Using Boussinesq Equation (Boussinesq 방정식을 이용한 지진해일 전파모형)

  • Song, Min Jong;Ha, Tae Min;Cho, Yong-Sik
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2011.02a
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    • pp.57-57
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    • 2011
  • 지진해일은 진행속도가 빠르고 파장이 길며 파형의 변화 없이 먼 거리를 진행 할 수 있어 주변지역은 물론 멀리 떨어진 지역에도 심한 범람피해를 야기시킨다. 지진해일의 일반적인 특징으로 장파와 단파가 합성되어 있고 먼 거리를 전파할 경우 분산효과의 역할이 중요하게 된다. 특히 우리나라의 동해안에 영향을 주는 지진해일은 단주기파 성분이 강하고 파장에 비해 먼 거리를 전파하기에 분산을 고려하는 선형 Boussinesq 방정식을 지배방정식으로 사용하는 것이 바람직하다. 하지만 지금까지의 지진해일 전파모의를 위한 모형은 선형 Boussinesq 방정식의 복잡한 계산과 계산시간이 길다는 단점 때문에 선형 천수방정식을 지배방정식으로 사용하고 분산효과는 수치분산을 이용하여 고려해왔다. 지진해일 해석 시 일반적으로 사용되어 오던 기존의 leap-frog 유한차분 모형(Imamura et al., 1988; 조용식, 1996)은 지배방정식으로 선형 천수방정식을 사용하고 파의 분산효과는 수치분산을 이용하여 고려하므로 정해진 시간 간격에 대해 수심에 따라 격자 간격을 적절히 선택해야 하는데 수심이 복잡하게 변하는 경우 격자간격 조정이 불가능하여 분산효과를 정도 높게 고려할 수 없다. 이 문제점을 해결하기 위하여 윤성범 등(2004)은 파동방정식의 인위적인 분산항을 이용하여 Boussinesq 방정식의 분산효과를 고려할 수 있는 능동적인 분산보정기법을 제안하였고 Cho et al.(2007)는 일정한 수심에서 수치적인 분산오차가 Boussinesq 방정식의 물리적인 분산항을 대체하도록 수심, 격자 간격 및 계산 시간 간격 사이의 관계식을 유도하고 Boussinesq 방정식의 분산항과 일치하는 수치분산을 이용하여 실용적인 분산보정기법을 개발하였다. 이에 Ahn(2010)은 현재 컴퓨터의 계산 능력이 향상되어 선형 Boussinesq 방정식을 직접 차분하여 계산하는데 무리가 없다고 판단하여 선형 Boussinesq 방정식을 직접 차분한 모형을 개발하였다. 본 연구에서는 기존의 원해 지진해일 전파모의에 이용되어왔던 선형 천수방정식에 수치분산을 고려한 모형 대신 선형 Boussinesq 방정식의 유한차분 모형을 제안하였으며 기존의 선형 Boussinesq 방정식 모형의 격자와 수심간의 제약을 없애기 위해 차분 기법을 달리 한 2차 정확도의 유한차분 모형을 제안하였다. 검증을 위하여 선형 Boussinesq 방정식의 해석해(Carrier, 1991)와 비교하였다.

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Application of Practical Dispersion-Correction Scheme for Simulation of Tsunami Propagation (지진해일 전파 수치해석을 위한 실용적인 분산보정기법 적용)

  • Choi, Moon-Kyu;Ha, Tae-Min;Cho, Yong-Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.145-152
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    • 2008
  • The initial wave lengths of tsunamis can be several tens to hundreds kilometers. Thus, the importance of the frequency dispersive effects in proportion to variation of the wave length, and should be properly considered in numerical simulation of tsunami propagation for a better accuracy. Recently, a practical dispersion-correction scheme has been developed by adding dispersion-correction terms(Cho et al., 2007). The new model employing the numerical technique has been verified by comparing numerical results with available analytic solutions, however, the new model has not yet been applied on a real topography. In this study, the new model is applied on a real topography and its applicability is examined. To study the applicability of the new model, two historical tsunami events are simulated for Sokcho, Mukho and Pohang harbors, with the tide gage records. Numerical results, the arrival time and the maximum water level at the tidal stations, are compared with observed data at each harbor.

A Simulation of Earthquake Loss Estimation for a Gyeongju Event (경주지역 발생 지진에 대한 지진손실예측 시뮬레이션)

  • Kang, Su-Young;Kim, Kwang-Hee;Suk, Bong-Chool;Yoo, Hai-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.95-103
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    • 2008
  • Knowledge of expected losses in terms of physical, economic, and social damages due to a potential earthquake will be helpful in the effort to mitigate seismic hazards. In this study, losses due to a magnitude 6.7 scenario earthquake in the Gyeongju area have been estimated using the deterministic method in HAZUS. The attenuation relation proposed by Sadigh et al.(1997) for site classes B, C, and D, which are assumed to represent the characteristics of the strong-motion attenuation in the Korean Peninsula, has been applied. Losses due to the hypothetical earthquake have been also calculated using other attenuation relationships to examine their roles in the loss estimation. The findings indicate differences among the estimates based on various attenuation relationships. Estimated losses of the Gyeongju area by a scenario earthquake using HAZUS should be seriously considered in the planning of disaster response and hazard mitigation.

Assessment of Earthquake Disaster Risk in Seoul Metropolitan Area (서울지역 지진 재해 위험도 평가)

  • Lee, Chang-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.5 no.4 s.19
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    • pp.71-78
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    • 2005
  • The principal basic concepts of aseismic design minimize damage of human-life and have little probability during life of structures. For detailed understanding of the design, the best reasonable countermeasure can be possible equally the smallest damage of human-life and economic loss. As a result, it can be achieved by notion of not structure-centered but city-centered, the notion is actualized by development of a macro-level evaluation. A seismic damage between city and country is different. And the larger the city then, the greater the loss by rather collateral hazards than collapse of structures. Hence, the macro-evaluation of an earthquake disaster is suitable for an old city where is center of political and economic activity, and is concentration of population and infrastructure. This study aims to develop comprehensive earthquake desaster risk index, and assesses relative earthquake risk of six zones in Seoul metropolitan area.

Seismic Fragility Analysis for Probabilistic Seismic Performance Evaluation of Multi-Degree-of-Freedom Bridge Structures (확률론적 내진성능평가를 위한 다자유도 교량구조물의 지진취약도해석)

  • Jin, He-Shou;Song, Jong-Keol
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2008.02a
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    • pp.269-272
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    • 2008
  • The seismic fragility curves of a structure represents the probability of exceeding the prescribed structural damage given various levels of ground motion intensityand the seismic fragility curve is essential to evaluation of structural performance and assessment of risk and loss of structures. The purpose of this paper is to develop seismic fragility functions for bridge structures in Koreaby reviewing those of advanced countries. Therefore, at first, we investigated development conditions of the seismic fragility functions. And the next highway bridges in Korea are classified into a number of categories and several typical bridges are selected to estimate seismic fragilities for using this analysis method in Korea. Finally, fragility curves for PSC Box girder bridge are estimated. The results show that the bridge classification and damage state play an important role in estimation of seismic damage and seismic fragility analysis for bridge structures.

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Relationship between Earthquake and Fluctuation of Water Level in Active Fault Zone and National Groundwater Monitoring Wells of Gyeongju Area (경주 활성단층대 및 주변 국가지하수 관측정에서 지진과 수위변동 상관관계 연구)

  • Jang, Hyeon-Woo;Jeong, Chan-Ho;Lee, Yong-Cheon;Lee, Yu-Jin;Hong, Jin-Woo;Kim, Cheon-Hwan;Kim, Young-Seog;Kang, Tae-Seob
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.617-634
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship of between earthquakes and fluctuation of water level in a groundwater well of the active-fault zone and 124 national groundwater monitoring wells in Gyeongju area. The spatial and temporal relationships between the fluctuation of water level and the earthquake were analyzed by the calculation of earthquake effectiveness (ε) and q-factor which are the function of earthquake magnitude and distance from epicenter. Two earthquake events of E1 (April 22, 2019, M 3.8) and E2 (June 11, 2019, M 2.5) show a close relationship with a post-seismic 83 cm decrease and a pre-seismic 76 cm increase in water level at the active fault zone of Dangu-ri, respectively. The spatial analysis of water level fluctuation data in National Groundwater Monitoring Networks caused by earthquake events shows a more distinct response in deep groundwater around fault zones than other area, and a greater change in deep groundwater than shallow groundwater. It's inferred that the decrease and increase in groundwater level are affected by the expansion of fractures and compression of rock mass due to seismic stress, respectively. The effective ranges of ε-value and q-factor of the monitoring well in Dangu-ri were calculated as 2.70E-10~5.60E-10 and 14.4~18.0, respectively.

Non-Prismatic Beam Element for Nonlinear Seismic Analysis of Steel Moment Frames II: Verification of Model (강재 모멘트 골조의 비선형 지진 해석을 위한 부등단면 보 요소 II: 모델의 검증)

  • Hwang, Byoung-Kuk;Cheon, Chung-Ha;Kim, Kee-Dong;Ko, Man-Gi
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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    • v.7 no.5
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    • pp.37-46
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    • 2007
  • This is the second of two companion papers that describe non-prismatic beam element for nonlinear seismic analysis of steel moment frames. Described in a companion paper is the formulation of a non-prismatic beam element to model the elastic and inelastic behavior of steel beams, which have reduced beam sections(RBS). This study describes the determination of yield surfaces, stiffness parameters, and hardening (or softening) rule parameters for RBS beam element. Analytical results of the RBS beam element show good correlation with test data and Finite Element Method(FEM) results.