• Title/Summary/Keyword: 지역경기변동

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Permanent and Transitory Factors of the Business Cycle in the NAFTA Region (NAFTA 지역 경기변동의 영구적 요인과 일시적 요인)

  • Kim, Jan R.
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.55-76
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, we estimate a model that incorporates key features of business cycles, co-movement among economic variables and switching between regimes of expansion and recession, to aggregate quarterly data for the NAFTA region. Two common factors reflecting the permanent and transitory components of the business cycle in the region, along with the turning points from one regime to the other, were extracted from the data by using the Kalman filter and maximum likelihood estimation approach of Kim (1994). Estimation results confirm that a typical aspect of business cycles are also observed (i.e., recessions are steeper and shorter than recoveries) in the region, and that both co-movement and that regime switching are found to be important features of the business cycle. The two common factors produce sensible representations of the trend and cycle, and the estimated turning points are in line with independently determined chronologies. It also turns out that the degree of synchronization between the NAFTA region and Korea, has significantly increased since the entry into force of the NAFTA.

The Analysis of the Relation between Regional Industrial Diversity and Regional Business Cycle (지역의 산업다양성과 지역경기변동의 관계 분석)

  • Woo, Youngjin;Kim, Euijune
    • Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.3-19
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of regional industrial diversity on regional business cycle response to national volatility. We employed mean group and pooled mean group estimators of panel vector error-correction models in order to control unobserved heterogeneity of the port cities, such as Pusan, Ulsan and Incheon. The results show that in various industrial regions, short-term fluctuations in the unemployment rate are small compared to other regions. On the contrary, long-term volatility of manufacturing production index is low in those regions.

Changes in Real Exchange Rate and Business Fluctuations: A Comparative Study of Korea and Japan (실질환율변동의 경기변동효과: 한국과 일본의 비교연구)

  • Kwak, Tae Woon
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.309-330
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    • 2009
  • This paper analyzes comparatively the effects of changes in real effective exchange rates on the business fluctuations of the cases of Korea and Japan employing structural vector auto-regression(S-VAR) model which uses quarterly data for the five variables of real effective exchange rates, GDP gap, real interest rates, oil prices, inflation rates for the period of 1980-2006. The paper employes impulse-response analysis and variance decompositions. The paper finds that real exchange rate depreciations are contractionay for the case of Korea while they are expansionary for the case of Japan. These results are consistent with the prevailing empirical results that real exchange rate depreciations are contractionary for developing countries while expansionary for advanced countries.

Regional Patterns of Farmland Price Changes for the Farmland Reverse Mortgage System (농지연금 도입에 따른 지역별 농지가격의 변동형태 분석 -경기도와 경상북도 지역을 대상으로-)

  • Lim, Dae-Bong;Cho, Deok-Ho
    • Journal of the Economic Geographical Society of Korea
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.663-680
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    • 2010
  • This paper aims at analysing Regional Patterns of Farmland Price Changes for the Farmland Reverse Mortgage System. Farmland Reverse Mortgage(FRM) is a system in which the aged farmers in the rural areas receive certain amount of money monthly through the liquidation of their own farmlands for the life time. Farmland price affects the farmland annuity considerably. In the future, if the farmland price goes down than the price when the borrower joined FRM, the borrower can get profits from the pension. Based on the results, the farmland price of Kyeonggi-do is strongly related to economic growth rates(index of industrial product). while that of Gyeongsangbuk-do is weakly related to economic variables including economic growth rates. Therefore, the expectation of farmland value rising rate will be higher in Kyeonggi-do than in Gyeongsangbuk-do. Thus the number of borrowers who want to join FRM in Gyeongsangbuk-do will be more than those in Kyeonggi-do.

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A Study of Characteristics of Business Cycle in the Jeju Region (제주지역 경기변동의 특성 연구)

  • Kang, Min-Seo;Kang, Gi-Choon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.420-426
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this paper is to examine the business cycle in the Jeju region and what differences exist in relation to the nation as a whole, to calculate the relative importance between the random walk stochastic trend and cyclical factor, and to find out its causes and implications. Results of empirical analysis found that the characteristics of the business cycle in the Jeju region were as follows: First, the Jeju region, which is likely to have a growth component of the economy such as technological development and the accumulation of capital, was projected to have a possibility of high growth due to a greater proportion of the stochastic trend factor(46.8%) than the entire country(27.8%). Secondly, employment fluctuation in Jeju, which varies from 0.007 to 0.058 depending on the model, was lowest compared to the fluctuation of other indicators. The employment market in Jeju remained firm, showing that it is not smooth enough to create new jobs despite the production growth in industry. Third, the tourism industry was acting as a stabilizing factor, whereas the mining and manufacturing production was the opposite of tourism industry. This implies that the mining and manufacturing production was based on a weak foundation.

The Asymmetric Relationship between Output Volatility and Growth : Evidence from the U.K. Industrial Production (영국 산업생산 자료에 나타난 성장률과 변동성간의 비대칭적 관계)

  • Kim, Jan R.
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.86-107
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    • 2010
  • Prior research on the relationship between output volatility and growth has produced mixed results, failing to provide clear empirical evidence on the sign of the relationship. In this paper, we raise the possibility that such failure is due to misspecification in empirical models previously used, i.e., not taking into account the business cycle dependence of the volatility-growth relation. We set off with the conjecture that higher volatility exerts qualitatively different effect on growth depending on whether the economy is in expansion or contraction. We estimate a series of ARCH-type models with the monthly industrial production data of the U.K., and find strong evidence suggesting that the volatility-growth relation is positive when the economy is in expansion, while higher volatility lowers growth rate in the contraction phase. We also find evidence supporting that the volatility-growth relation estimated in the paper captures a a causal relation, not a bidirectional correlation.

Regional Decline and Sociodemographic Change in Kangwon Southern-Belt Mine Area (강원남부 탄광지역의 쇠퇴와 인구사회학적 변화)

  • Chung, Sung-Ho
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.205-229
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    • 2004
  • 이 글은 강원남부 탄광지역의 쇠퇴와 인구사회학적 변동 양상을 검토하는데 그 목적이 있다. 이를 위해 우선 탄광지역의 특성을 살펴보고 탄광지역이 쇠퇴하게 된 원인을 규명하고자 한다. 그 다음으로 지역사회에 나타나고 있는 산업구조와 인구구조의 변화를 중점적으로 살피고자 한다. 연구 결과 태백지역이 쇠퇴하게 된 직접적인 요인은 석탄산업 합리화 정책의 시행으로 볼 수 있다. 이와 함께 태백지역은 탄광산업이 지역성장이 유일한 원동력이었다는 사실 즉, 탄광산업의 쇠퇴는 바로 이 지역의 급격한 경기침체와 인구유출의 직접적인 원인이 되었음을 알 수 있다. 급격한 경기침체는 산업구조의 변화에서 잘 드러나고 있으며 인구유출 양상은 지역의 인구변화 추이에서 잘 드러나고 있다. 최근 폐광지역개발지원특별법에 의해 수립된 종합개발계획도 상당 부분 무산되거나 기약 없이 미뤄지고 있다는 점과 지역개발을 강원랜드 카지노에만 지나치게 의존하고 있는 문제점 등이 드러나면서 지역경기 침체와 인구감소 추세는 계속되고 있다. 탄광지역의 주민소득 증대는 물론 새로운 고용창출로 지역경제를 활성화시키는 보다 구체적이고 실질적인 발전 전략이 필요하다.

소표본 통계단위에서의 집세 변동률 추정

  • Park, Won-Ran
    • Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
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    • 2003.05a
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    • pp.63-68
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    • 2003
  • 도시가구의 지출 중 집세가 차지하는 비율이 높으며 그 변동에 따라 도시가구의 생활에 미치는 영향도 커서 중요한 통계자료로 인식되고 있다. 집세 계약기간이 통상 2년 단위이기 때문에 집세변동의 발생빈도가 적어서 이러한 소표본 군의 통계단위로 일반적인 집세지수를 작성하는데는 많은 어려움이 따른다. 그렇다고 해서 소표본 군의 표본을 확대하는 것도 어렵기 때문에 이러한 산술적인 표본확대가 어려운 소표본 군의 문제점을 해결하기 위해 소지역 추정법을 도입하였다. 이러한 소표본 통계단위에서의 집세 변동률 추정방법을 경기도 지역의 6개 도시에서의 집세변동을 추정하는데 적용하였으며 검토해 보았다.

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Predicting Recessions Using Yield Spread in Emerging Economies: Regime Switch vs. Probit Analysis (금리스프레드를 이용한 신흥경제 국가의 불황 예측: 국면 전환 모형 vs. 프로빗 모형)

  • Park, Kihyun;Mohsin, Mohammed
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.53-73
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    • 2012
  • In this study we investigate the ability of the yield spread to predict economic recessions in two Asian economies. For our purpose we use the data from two emerging economies (South Korea and Thailand) that are also known for their openness in terms of exports and imports. We employ both two-regime Markov-Switching model (MS) and three-regime MS model to estimate the probability of recessions during Asian crisis. We found that the yield spread is confirmed to be a reliable recession predictor for Thailand but not for South Korea. The three-regime MS model is better for capturing the Asian financial crisis than two-regime MS model. We also tried to find the duration of economic expansions and recessions. We tested the hypothesis of asymmetric movements of business cycles. The MS results are also compared with that of the standard probit model for comparison. The MS model does not significantly improve the forecasting ability of the yield spread in forecasting business cycles.

The Regionality of the Variation of Summer Precipitation in Korea (한국의 여름 강수량 변동의 지역성)

  • Kang, Man-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean association of regional geographers
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.139-152
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    • 2000
  • The regional characteristics of summer precipitation in Korea are analyzed with the data observed in 66 stations from 1973 to 1997, using the cluster analysis method. In the phenomena of summer precipitation, the rain-rich regions lie in the south coast region, the northern part of Kyonggi Province, and Yongdong region. The monthly precipitation is mostly influenced by Changma fronts and cyclons in June, Changma fronts in July, typhoons in August, and all of typhoons, Changma, and cyclons in September. The increasing and decreasing trends of the monthly precipitation are equally divided with regard to both regional groups and monthly distribution in the cluster analysis. Especially such trends are considerably clear in the rain-rich regions. The increasing tendency is predominant in the northern part of Kyonggi Province and Yongdong region, while the decreasing trend and the periodicity are noted in the south coast region and Cheju Island. The variation of the monthly precipitation is shown to be great in the rain-rich regions, while it is not much associated with the rain-scare regions. Also, the variation is the greatest in September, while the least variation is shown in July.

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