• Title/Summary/Keyword: 지속곡선

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How maximum rainfall intensity varies as the time scale grows? (시간 규모 증대에 따른 최대강우강도 변화)

  • Kang, Hyoungseok;Paik, Kyungrock
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.101-101
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    • 2022
  • IDF (Intensity-Duration-Frequency) 곡선에서 익숙하다시피 강우지속시간과 최대강우강도는 반비례한다. 그동안 이러한 관계를 살펴보는 것은 대개 수십 시간의 규모에 그쳤다. 이 연구에서는 과연 시계열에서 시간 규모를 계속 증가시키면서 해당 시간 동안의 최대강우강도가 어떻게 변하는지를 살펴보았다. 가능한 장기간의 강수관측이 이루어진 우리나라 24개 지점을 대상으로 시간 규모를 최장 한 세기까지 키우면서 최대강우강도의 변화를 분석하였다. 작은 시간 규모에서는 그 관계가 멱함수를 따르지만, 시간 규모가 점차 늘어나면서 최대강우강도는 설계 목적의 지속시간 범위에서 결정된 멱함수 또는 기존 IDF 곡선으로부터 외삽하기 어려워진다. 이러한 변화는 점차 정상 연강수량으로 점근하는 결과를 가져온다. 분석된 결과를 토대로 연 단위를 초과하는 지속시간에 걸친 최대강우강도의 감쇄를 적절하게 표현할 수 있는 함수식을 제시하였다.

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Derivation of Flow Duration Curve and Sensitivity analysis using LSTM deep learning prediction technique and SWAT (LSTM 딥러닝 예측기법과 SWAT을 이용한 유량지속곡선 도출 및 민감도 분석)

  • An, Sung Wook;Choi, Jung Ryel;Kim, Byung Sik
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.354-354
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    • 2022
  • 딥러닝(Deep Learning)은 일반적으로 인공신경망(Artificial Neural Network) 를 의미하는데, 이에 따른 결과는 데이터의 양, 변수, 학습모델의 학습횟수, 은닉층(Hidden Layer)의 개수 등 여러 요소로 인해 결정된다. 본 연구에서는 물리적 장기유출 모형인 SWAT의 결과를 참값으로 LSTM모형의 매개변수인 은닉층 갯수와 학습횟수등의 시나리오를 바탕으로 검보정을 수행하였으며, 최적의 목적함수를 갖는 매개변수를 도출하였다. 이를 이용하여 유량지속곡선을 도출한결과를 SWAT의 결과와 비교해본 결과 매우 높은 상관성을 도출하였으며 이를 통해 수자원분야에서 인공신경망의 활용 가능성을 확인하였다.

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Application of Rise/Fall/Connection(RFC) Model to Korean Intonation (RFC 모델의 한국어 억양 곡선에의 적용)

  • 표경란
    • Proceedings of the Acoustical Society of Korea Conference
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    • 1998.08a
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    • pp.214-217
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    • 1998
  • 합성음에 사용할 한국어 억양 모델을 세우기 위한 기초적 연구로서 한국어 억양 곡선에 RFC 모델을 적용해 보았다. 억양 곡선의 구조는 피치 액센트와 억양구 경계 음조의 연속으로 되어 있는데, RFC 모델은 각각의 진폭과 지속기간을 가지는 상승 음조 요소와 하강 음조요소, 그리고 연결 요소로 이러한 억양 곡선의 모양을 모델링한다. 본 논문에서는 한국어 억양 곡선의 특징을 잘 반영하도록 RFC 모델의 구성요소를 수정하고, 청취 실험을 통해서 원래의 RFC 모델과 수정된 RFC 모델을 비교해 보았다. 실험 결과는 수정된 RFC 모델이 원래의 RFC 모델보다 13%정도 음조 표지 개수가 줄었음에도 불구하고 청각적으로 인지하는데 차이가 없는 것으로 나타났다.

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Application of Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Model based Intensity-Duration-Quantity Curve for Unagaged Basin Flood warning (미계측 유역 홍수예보를 위한 분포형 강우-유출 모형 기반의 강우강도-지속시간-홍수량(IDQ) 곡선의 활용)

  • Kim, Jingyeom;Kang, Boosik
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.645-645
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    • 2015
  • 기존 홍수예보에 사용되는 일반적인 절차는 관측되는 강우를 이용하여 유역의 유출량을 계산하고 댐 저수량과 현 상황에서 발생할 수 있는 하천의 수위와 유량을 판단한 뒤 홍수예보 및 경보를 발령한다. 이러한 방법은 모형의 구동에 걸리는 시간으로 인한 의사결정 시간의 단축, 모형의 성능에 의존하는 홍수예측 결과 등의 단점이 존재하며, 관련 전문가가 상주하며 홍수 유무를 판단하고 상황을 전파해야하는 인적 재원이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 분포형 강우-유출모형 기반의 강우강도-지속시간-홍수량(IDQ) 곡선을 활용하여 미계측 유역 홍수예보에 활용하는 기법을 평가하였다. 계측된 유역의 자료를 이용하여 분포형 모형의 검보정을 실시하고 하천의 예경보 홍수량에 준하는 한계강우량을 산정하였다. 이때. 다양한 지속시간의 강우를 적용하였으며 토양함수상태에 따른 IDQ 곡선을 산정하여 발생 가능한 여러 시나리오에 대비할 수 있는 홍수예보 기법을 제시하였다. 주요 홍수예경보지점에 적절한 IDQ 곡선을 보유하게 된다면 비전문가도 신속한 홍수예경보 의사결정이 가능하여 각 지자체와 유관기관에서 손쉽게 활용할 수 있으리라 판단된다.

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Assessment of Input Motion for the Seismic Analysis of Nuclear Structures (원자력구조물(原子力構造物)의 지진해석(地震解析)에 사용(使用)되는 입력운동(入力運動)에 대한 고찰(考察))

  • Park, Hyung Ghee;Yu, Chul Soo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.91-99
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    • 1985
  • The acceleration levels and durations of seismic inputs for nuclear power plant design are surveyed. Among those inputs, two artificial acceleration time histories with same acceleration level and duration are selected and their characteristics are studied by calculating response spectra and spectrum intensity. The selected time histories which have the duration of 24 sec. satisfy the design response spectra of US Nuclear Regulatory Commission Regulatory Guide 1. 60. One of the selected time histories is improved to have the duration of 15 sec. without significant changes in the other characteristics. A case study of a plane model with 3 lumped masses is done using three time histories, i.e, two selected and one improved time histories. It is found that the improved curve gives almost the same results as the original one and reduces the computer time by about half, whereas two selected time histories give the results with same trend but much different magnitudes each other. It is claimed, however, that the improved time history is not the optimal one, but very economical in practical applications.

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A Point Rainfal1 Model and Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Analysis (점 강우모형과 강우강도-지속기간-생기빈도 해석)

  • Yu, Cheol-Sang;Kim, Nam-Won;Jeong, Gwang-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.577-586
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    • 2001
  • This study proposes a theoretical methodology for deriving a rainfall intensity-duration- frequency (I-D-F) curve using a simple rectangular pulses Poisson process model. As the I-D-F curve derived by considering the model structure is dependent on the rainfall model parameters estimated using the observed first and second order statistics, it becomes less sensitive to the unusual rainfall events than that derided using the annual maxima rainfall series. This study has been applied to the rainfall data at Seoul and Inchon stations to check its applicability by comparing the two I-D-F carves from the model and the data. The results obtained are as followed. (1) As the duration becomes longer, the overlap probability increases significantly. However, its contribution to the rainfall intensity decreases a little. (2) When considering the overlap of each rainfall event, especially for large duration and return period, we could see obvious increases of rainfall intensity. This result is normal as the rainfall intensity is calculated by considering both the overlap probability and return period. Also, the overlap effect for Seoul station is fecund much higher than that for Inchon station, which is mainly due to the different overlap probabilities calculated using different rainfall model parameter sets. (3) As the rectangular pulses Poisson processes model used in this study cannot consider the clustering characteristics of rainfall, the derived I-D-F curves show less rainfall intensities than those from the annual maxima series. However, overall pattern of both I-D-F curves are found very similar, and the difference is believed to be overcome by use of a rainfall model with the clustering consideration.

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A Study on the Applicability of Load Duration Curve for the Management of Nonpoint Source Pollution in Seohwacheon Basin (서화천 유역 비점오염원 관리를 위한 부하지속곡선 적용성 연구)

  • KAL, Byung-Seok;MUN, Hyun-Saing;HONG, Seon-Hwa;PARK, Chun-Dong;MIN, Kyeong-Ok;PARK, Jae-Beom
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.174-191
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    • 2020
  • In this study, we analyzed the vulnerable areas of non-point source pollutants and management pollutants and management time by subwatershed curves in the Seohwacheon basin located upstream of Daecheongho. First, in order to create a load duration curve, a long-term flow model SWAT was constructed to create a flow duration curve, and the result was multiplied by the target water quality to create a load duration curve. For the target water quality, monitoring data values measured from November 2017 were used for the management of nonpoint source pollutants in Seohwacheon, and a value corresponding to 60 percentile of the measured data was set as the target water quality. At this time, the target water quality was limited to"slightly good"(II) when the calculated value exceeded"slightly good"(II) of the river living environment standard. The vulnerable areas of non-point source of pollution were selected using the excess rate exceeding the target water quality, and the excess pollutant was judged as a management substance and the management time was selected through seasonal evaluation.

Analysis of Load Duration Curve Using Long Time Flow Measurement Data of Kyeongancheon (장기간 유량측정 자료를 이용한 경안천의 부하지속곡선 특성)

  • Noh, Changwan;Kwon, Phil-Sang;Jung, Woo-Seok;Lee, Myung-Gu;Cho, Yong-Chul;Yu, Soonju
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.35-48
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    • 2019
  • Long term flow measurement and water quality analysis data need to determine the target and allowable load for each basin in Total Water Pollution Load Management System (TWPLMS). The Load Duration Curve (LDC) is analyzed the relationship between flow data and water quality, and evaluates the pollutant load characterization by flow conditions. LDC of Kyeongancheon is created by the Flow Duration Curve (FDC) that was analyzed 8-day interval measured flow data from 2006 to 2015 and numeric water quality target in Kyeongancheon. As a result of this study, it is necessary to manage the point source pollutant because the numeric water quality target is not satisfied in the low flows. Also the numeric water quality target has been exceed for four months from March to June of the year and continuous and systematic watershed management is required to satisfy the numeric water quality target.

Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Droughts in Korea: Construction of Drought Severity-Area-Duration Curves (가뭄의 시공간적 분포 특성 연구: 가뭄심도-가뭄면적-가뭄지속기간 곡선의 작성)

  • Kim, Bo Kyung;Kim, Sang Dan;Lee, Jae Soo;Kim, Hung Soo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.1B
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    • pp.69-78
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    • 2006
  • The rainfall depth-area-duration analysis which is used to characterize precipitation extremes for specification of so-called design storms, provides a basis for evaluation of drought severity when storm depth is replaced by an appropriate measure of drought severity. So we propose a method for constructing drought severity-area-duration curves in this study. Monthly precipitation data over the whole Korea are used to compute SPI. Such SPIs are abstracted to several independent spatial components from EOF analysis. Using Kriging method, these spatial components are used to constitute grid-based SPI data set over the whole Korea including Jeju island with $6km{\times}6km$ resolution. After identifying main drought events, the drought severity-area-duration curves for these events over 32-year period of record are finally constructed. As a result, such curves show the similar shape with storm-based curves in the sense that the drought severity (or rainfall depth) is inversely proportional to drought area from the curves, but drought-based curves are different from storm-based curves in the sense that the drought severity decreasing rate with respect to drought area is much less than depth decreasing rate.

Proposal and Application of Water Deficit-Duration-Frequency Curve using Threshold Level Method (임계수준 방법을 이용한 물 부족량-지속기간-빈도 곡선의 제안 및 적용)

  • Sung, Jang Hyun;Chung, Eun-Sung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.47 no.11
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    • pp.997-1005
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    • 2014
  • This study evaluated hydrological drought the using the annual minimum flow and the annual maximum deficit method and proposed the new concept of water deficit-duration-frequency curves similar to rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves. The analysis results of the annual minimum flow, the return periods of hydrological drought in the most duration of 1989 and 1996yr were the longest. The analysis results of the annual maximum deficit, the return periods of 60-days and 90-day deficit which are relatively short duration were the longest in 1995yr, about 35-year, Hydrological drought lasted longer was in 1995, the return period was about 20-year. Though duration as well as magnitude is a key variable in drought analysis, it was found that the method using the annual minimum flow duration not distinguish duration.