• Title/Summary/Keyword: 중국 철광석 수출입

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A Study of Correlation Between China Iron Ore Import, Steel Export Activity and Dry Bulk Index : Focus on Capesize C5/C10/C14 and Supramax S2/S3 (중국의 철광석 수입량과 철강 수출량이 부정기선 운임지수에 미치는 영향)

  • Jeon, Bong-Gil;Oh, Jin-Ho;Park, Keun-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.115-136
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    • 2020
  • This study aims to analyze the impact of China's iron ore imports and exports on the tramper freight rate of China. The import volume of iron ore in China, the export volume of steel products in China, and exogenous variables were used as independent variables. The dependent variables were BDI, BCI, C5, C10, C14, BSI, S2, and S3. Correlation analysis and regression analysis were conducted. The correlation analysis showed that China's iron ore imports were not related to the remaining BDI, BCI, BSI, C5, C10, S2, and S3, except for the C14 index. However, there was a positive correlation between the ship's space and international oil prices, and it was not related to China's Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). The export volume of steel products was negatively correlated with BDI, BCI, BSI, C5, C10, C14, S2, S3, and international oil prices, and was not related to iron ore imports, ship space, and China's PMI. In the verification of the hypothesis between China's iron ore imports and exogenous variables, China's PMI was rejected within the hypothesis. However, the hypothesis on international oil prices and ship space was adopted. In the verification of the hypothesis between China's steel export volume and exogenous variables, the hypothesis on BDI and the S3 index was adopted, and the hypothesis on BSI and S2 was rejected. In the analysis results of this study, the ship space and oil prices were adopted in all the hypothesis results. Domestic companies participating in the tramper shipping market will need to be prepared through continuous monitoring of related indicators.