• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.15 no.4
• /
• pp.143-154
• /
• 1993

본고의 목적은 재산세(財産稅)의 경제적(經濟的) 효과(效果)를 분석하는 데 있다. 특히 재산세(財産稅)가 주택가격(住宅價格)과 임대료(賃貸料)에 미치는 효과와 그 크기, 그리고 재산세(財産稅)의 귀착에 중점을 두었다. 재산세(財産稅)가 강화되면 (1)주택가격(住宅價格)은 하락하고, (2)임대료(賃貸料)는 상승하되 주택가격(住宅價格)이 변동하는 것과 시차를 두고서 이루어지고, 주택가격(住宅價格)과 임대료(賃貸料)의 변동폭 차이는 주택공급(住宅供給)과 주거수요(住居需要)의 가격탄력성(價格彈力性)의 차이에 좌우되며, (3)주택공급(住宅供給)의 가격탄력성(價格彈力性)이 더 비탄력적인 점을 감안할 때 주택가격(住宅價格)의 하락폭이 임대료의 상승폭보다 크고, (4)주택가격(住宅價格)의 하락폭은 실효재산세율이 사용자비용에서 차지하는 비중이 클수록 커지며, (5)현재의 낮은 실효재산세부담을 감안할 때 주택가격하락효과가 크지 않다는 것이 본고의 주요 결론이다. 재산세(財産稅)의 부담측면에서는 재산세가 강화되면 주택보유자(住宅保有者)가 그 부담을 일차적으로 지나, 임차자와 주택보유자 이외의 자본가도 역시 재산세(財産稅)의 부담을 나누어 진다. 임차자는 임대료 상승에 따른 부담을, 자본가는 자본이 주택부문에서 비주택부문으로 이동함에 따라 수익률이 전반적으로 하락하는 데 따르는 부담을 진다.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
• /
• v.9 no.2
• /
• pp.113-118
• /
• 2023

This study analyzed the effects of macroeconomic variables, including housing affordability, and bank loan-related variables on variation in housing prices using multiple regression models. As a result of the analysis, consumer price growth rate, the total currency growth rate, and the housing affordability growth rate had a significant positive effect on changes in housing prices. As a result of analyzing the period of rising and falling housing prices, consumer price growth rate and the total currency growth rate during the period of rising housing prices had a significant positive effect on housing prices. Unlike the period of rising housing prices, the growth rate of household loans was found to have a significant positive effect on changes in housing prices. On the other hand, unlike the period of rising housing prices, the growth rater of mortgage loans was found to have a significant negative effect on changes in housing prices. The growth rate of housing affordability index did not have a significant positive effect on changes in housing prices during a falling housing prices. The determinants of housing prices showed different patterns during the period of rising housing prices and falling housing prices.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
• /
• v.13 no.7
• /
• pp.432-439
• /
• 2013

In this study, we evaluate the volatility of housing prices by using literature review and empirical analysis and furthermore we suggest how to improve. In order to diagnose housing market, the KB Bank's House Price Index, Real estate 114;s materials were compared. In addition, to examine the volatility, GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) and EGARCH (Exponential GARCH) model are used. By analysis of this research, we found the volatility of housing price also was reduced in the medium and the large houses since 1998, while the volatility of small housing price relatively was large. We proved that the price change rate of small housing was higher than the medium's. On the order hand, the supply of small apartments fell down sharply. The short-term oriented policy should be avoided, and the efficiency and credibility of policy should be increased. Furthermore, the long-term policy system should be established. and rental market's improvement is necessary for stabilization of housing market.

• Korean Business Review
• /
• v.20 no.2
• /
• pp.15-27
• /
• 2007

This paper analyzed the relationship between Housing Purchase Price volatility of Seoul and Housing Purchase Price volatility of local large city. Other studies investigates the effect on the observed volatility Observed volatility consists of fundamental volatility and transitory volatility. Fundamental volatility is caused by information arrival and transitory volatility is caused by noise trading. Fundamental volatility is trend component and is modelled as a random walk with drift. Transitory volatility is cyclical component and is modelled as a stationary process. In contrast to other studies, this study investigates the effect on the fundamental volatility and transitory volatility individually. Observed volatility is estimated by GJR GARCH(1,1) model. We find that GJH GARCH model is superior to GARCH model and good news is more remarkable effect on volatility than bad news. This study decomposes the observed volatility into fundamental volatility and transitory volatility using Kalman filtering method. The findings in this paper is as follows. The correlation between Seoul housing price volatility and Busan housing price volatility is high. But, the correlation between Seoul and Daejeon is low. And the correlation between Daejeon and Busan is low. As a distinguishing feature, the correlation between fundamental volatilities is high in the case of all pairs. But, the correlation between transitory volatilities turns out low. The reason is as follows. When economic information arrives, Seoul, Daejeon, and Busan housing markets, all together, are affected by this information.

• 주택과사람들
• /
• s.109
• /
• pp.219-239
• /
• 1999

• 주택과사람들
• /
• s.195
• /
• pp.12-13
• /
• 2006

녹음이 우거진 7월, 주택시장은 여름철 비수기를 맞아 거래가 부진한 가운데 약보합세를 보이고 있다. 강남권은 가격 하락세를 보이는 반면 비강남권 인기지역의 집값은 소폭 상승하고 있는 7월 주택시장을 살펴보았다.

• 주택과사람들
• /
• s.197
• /
• pp.46-47
• /
• 2006

지난 9월은 판교 청약 열기와 함께 주택을 구입하려는 매매ㆍ전세 수요가 몰려 집값이 강세를 보였다. 택지지구에 분양하는 아파트의 고분양가 논란 등으로 주변의 집값도 함께 오를 것으로 보여 당분간 주택 가격은 강보합세를 유지할 것으로 예상된다.

• Korea Real Estate Review
• /
• v.27 no.3
• /
• pp.41-50
• /
• 2017

Previous studies, especially that by Lee (2014), showed how time series volatility models can be applied to the house price series. As the regional housing market trends, however, have shown significant differences of late, analysis with national data may have limited practical implications. This study applied volatility models in analyzing and forecasting regional house prices. The estimation of the AR(1)-ARCH(1), AR(1)-GARCH(1,1), and AR(1)-EGARCH(1,1,1) models confirmed the ARCH and/or GARCH effects in the regional house price series. The RMSEs of out-of-sample forecasts were then compared to identify the best-fitting model for each region. The monthly rates of house price changes in the second half of 2017 were then presented as an example of how the results of this study can be applied in practice.

• 주택과사람들
• /
• s.202
• /
• pp.90-91
• /
• 2007

'1.11 대책' 이후 부동산 시장은 실수요자 위주로 빠르게 재편되면서 안정세를 보이고 있다. 하락을 주도한 재건축 아파트를 중심으로 매매, 전세 등 전체적인 부동산 가격은 약보합세를 띠었다. 2007년 2월 주택 시장을 돌아보았다.

• 주택과사람들
• /
• s.194
• /
• pp.16-17
• /
• 2006

3월 말부터 상승세를 이어가던 집값이 6월 들어 다소 안정을 되찾았다. 하지만 그동안 일부 지역의 집값 상승에 박탈감을 느낀 수요자을이 자신의 아파트 값을 올리기 위해 담합 행위를 하는 경우도 발생했다. 6월의 주택 가격 동향에 대해 살펴보자.