• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.11 no.5
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• pp.32-40
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• 2010

Recent periodical boom and burst of house price have made mortgage lending issues become the main public interest in Korean real estate market. However, because mortgage-lending issues had not been discussed until then, housing market forecasting associated with mortgage lending has been difficult while using an empirical approach. Thus, comprehensive and systematic approach is required as well as validity of mortgage lending policies should be evaluated. In this regard, this research conducts a sensitivity analysis to validate the proposed policies and estimates the effects of current policies on LTV and DTI ratios with a comparison of another policies scenario. A causal loop and sensitivity analysis using system dynamics confirmed that LTV and DTI regulation is strong clout to housing market. However, to prevent transfer of potential mortgage borrowers to nonmonetary institutions, regulations in loans of nonmonetary institutions should be practiced in accompaniment with regulations of primary lending agencies.

• Korea Real Estate Review
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.65-77
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• 2018

This paper analyzes the redemption risk of renters by estimating the LTV and CoLTV with finance market big data (individual credit information) and housing market big data (actual housing transaction data). The analysis showed that when using LTV, the redemption risk was higher in the case of the monthly renter than of the chonsei renter. On the other hand, when using CoLTV, the chonsei renter had a higher redemption risk than the monthly renter. This implies that there is a need to activate a guarantee system, such as risk management using the CoLTV index and the chonsei deposit return guarantee because it is possible for renters to experience losses on their chonsei deposits due to the higher redemption risk. Another implication is that the risk manager should consider the individual characteristics of renters because of the different effects of the redemption risk stemming from the characteristics of the rental contract and the personal characteristics of the renters. CoLTV was just a concept until this study calculated it using housing big data and actual housing transaction information. It helps identify the redemption risk through the characteristics of renters and their contracts.

• Korea Real Estate Review
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• v.24 no.1
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• pp.105-120
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• 2014

This research is to examine the impacts of the on-going global financial crisis on the housing systems of welfare states. Four developed economies in the Western Europe were selected for the analysis, and the qualitative research employed in-depth interviews with scholars in the fields of housing market and social policy in order to meet the research goal. The major findings indicate that the global economic crisis embedded into the liberalization of housing finance and the inadequacy of regulatory measures caused the vicissitude of housing markets, and its scale and magnitude could be determined by the resilience of each state's housing system. While the globalization of housing finance markets rendered easy borrowing for homeownership, intensive competition for excessive lending among financial institutions backed by heavy reliance on inter-bank and overall bank triggered market volatility, and further worsened household and public debts. It's clearly evident that a housing system with varied safety nets becomes a greater cushion to bear the risks of the financial crisis and to weather the economic storm.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.181-190
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• 2019

The purpose of this study is to help the understanding of the housing market through the influence of consumer choice attributes and financial policy on home buyer behavior. The key issue in the analysis is to take into account moderate effect of housing investment demand between different types of housing attribute choice and financial policy. The results of the study are as follows. First, convenience, education location, and neighborhood level have a significant effect on the purchase intention of the housing. Second, government policy have no significant influence on the purchase intention of the house. Third, the moderating effects of real estate investment outlook are that the neighbors level and interaction variables have a statistically significant effect on the purchase intention of the house. Since the government's financial policies do not affect the decision to buy a house, in reality, excessive regulation may reduce the quality of housing welfare for the first time home buyers. As a result of this study, the financial policy of the government does not affect the decision of the purchase of the house. In reality, the excessive regulation may reduce the quality of the housing welfare for the first time home buyer. Only an analysis which combines these aspects of consumer's choice can adequately describe and explain the actual change in demand in the residential market.

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.2 no.4
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• pp.367-377
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• 2011

This paper investigates the determination factors' variation of real estate price after sub-prime financial crisis, in korea, using a VAR model. The model includes land price, housing price, housing rent (Jensei) price, which time period is from 2000:1Q to 2011:2Q and uses interest rate, real GDP, consumer price index, KOSPI, the number of housing construction, the amount of land sales and practices to impulse response and variance decomposition analysis. Data cover two sub-periods and divided by 2008:3Q that occurred the sub-prime crisis; one is a period of 2000:1Q to 2008:3Q, the other is based a period of 2000:1Q to 2011:2Q. As a result, Comparing sub-prime crisis before and after, land price come out that the influence of real GDP is expanding, but current interest rate's variation is weaken due to the stagnation of current economic status and housing construction market. Housing price is few influenced to interest rate and real GDP, but it is influenced its own variation or Jensei price's variation. According to the Jensei price's rapidly increasing in nowadays, housing price might be increasing a rising possibility. Jensei price is also weaken the influence of all economic index, housing price, comparing before sub-prime financial crisis and it is influenced its own variation the same housing price. As you know, real estate price is weakened market basic value factors such as, interest rate, real GDP, because it is influenced exogenous economic factors such as population structural changes. Economic participators, economic officials, consumer, construction supplyers need to access an accurate observation about current real estate market and economic status.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.12-25
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• 2013

Unsold new houses have increased before the financial crisis, and have steadily accumulated since domestic diffusion ratio of house exceeded 100%. From a long term point of view, it is important to liquidate unsold new houses and raise funds from the capital market till the housing market recovers because the accumulation of unsold new houses is a financial burden to the construction company and for that reason, the housing policies to support the liquidity of unsold new houses must be consistently available means. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze the effectiveness of government's policy to support the liquidity of unsold new houses using CR-REITs from among these policies with system dynamics. Using the system dynamics model, this study finds the significance and limitation of the policy to liquidate unsold new houses using CR-REITs and suggests the measures to improve the policy.

• The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.499-506
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• 2017

Consideration of influential factors through division of capital market sector and interest rate sector to find and resolve the problems in current housing market and leasing market will become an important index to prepare measures for stabilization of housing sales market and housing lease market. Furthermore, a guideline will be provide you with preliminary data using Big Data to prepare for sudden price fluctuation because expected economic crisis, stock market situation, and uncertain future financial crisis can be predicted which may help anticipate real estate price index such as housing sales price index and housing lease price index.

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.5 no.4
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• pp.259-269
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• 2014

After global financial crisis, the ratio of household debt to GDP was decreasing in other advanced countries such as the U.S., and the U.K. and so on. But, in Korea, household debt (of which residential mortgage loan account for a large part) ratio is still increasing. This paper focuses on the scale and characteristics of households in negative housing equity (those are called House-poors in Korea), and also the socio-economic backgrounds of the formation process. In financial perspective, the problem of negative housing equity depends on financial debt repayment capability. We used DSR (Debt Service Ratio) and LTA (Loan to Asset ratio) as financial indicators to evaluate the debt repayment capability. The critical value of DSR is assumed as 40%, and LTA 100%. The socio-economic backgrounds of the House-poors are as follows : increasing households debt dependency, over lending competition of financial institutions and unreasonable loan in household economy, instability of real estate market, week regulation on mortgage loan. Finally, this paper suggests some implications about the range and the target of public intervention.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.13-19
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• 2021

The purpose of this study is to find a reasonable solution that is compatible with the government's policy on calming the overheated housing market and the needs of prospective home buyers. For this purpose, this study analyzed the current state of the housing market and looked at the root cause of the people's desire to purchase housing. And this study suggested the need to introduce a super-long-term mortgage system that can help people choose whether to own or rent a house in accordance with individual preferences. The super-long-term mortgage system would be useful in that the majority of people who currently use mortgages prefer long-term loan products and that it could provide a chance to "get their own homes" by easing the monthly repayment burden for those who want to have homes. If the system is introduced in the future, it is necessary to make efforts for stable operation such as risk-hedge. In particular, the government should apply a limited application to end-users so that they can curb rising housing prices and contribute to stabilizing housing prices.

• Cement
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• s.199
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• pp.35-39
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• 2013

주택경기 침체와 글로벌 금융위기 등의 영향으로 2008년부터 본격화된 국내 건설경기 침체가 최근까지 이어지면서 건설업계의 경영난이 가중되고 있다. 2012년 건설수주는 불변금액 기준으로 10년 전 수준까지 떨어졌으며 건설투자는 최근 3년간 감소세가 지속되면서 역대 최장기간 감소세를 기록하고 있다. 이처럼 건설경기침체가 장기화되면서 건설투자 감소에 따른 경제성장률 하락, 취업자 감소, 금융부실 확대 등 거시경제 전반에 대한 우려가 확산되고 있다. 여기서는 우리금융경영연구소 허문종 수석연구원의 '건설경기 침체 현황과 거시경제 영향 점검' 보고서를 통해 국내 건설경기의 현황과 건설경기 침체가 가져올 파급효과에 대해 분석하고 분위기 반등을 위한 방안을 검토해본다.