• Title/Summary/Keyword: 정태 CGE 모형

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A Study on Economic Effects of Liberalization of Services Industry in a Korea-U.S. FTA: A Dynamic CGE Model (동태CGE모형을 이용한 한-미 FTA 서비스분야 협상 타결의 경제적 영향분석)

  • Ko, Jong-Hwan
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.695-728
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    • 2009
  • This study aims to conduct a quantitative assessment of potential economic impacts on the Korean economy of the concessions of the Korea-U.S. FTA (KORUS FTA) which was signed on April 1, 2007 using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, with all sectors, including agriculture, manufacturing sectors and services industry, considered for simulations. In addition, the timing of trade liberalization based on the concessions agreed on in the KORUS FTA talks for all sectors is explicitly considered. Major findings of this study are that Korea' real GDP would rise by 4.67%~4.99% by 2023 and the contribution of liberalization of services trade to Korea's economic growth would be 0.3%~0.62% points. Trade liberalization in service sectors would lead to lowered import prices and an increase in FDI, which are to contribute to an higher output and exports of sectors which make an intensive use of imported inputs and finally a higher economic growth of the Korean economy as a whole. For that to happen, a ratification of the KORUS FTA by the National Assembly of Korea and the U.S. Congress is required.

ASEAN's Free Trade Agreements with China, Japan and Korea: A Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis (아세안의 한중일과의 자유무역협정에 관한 정성 및 정량적 분석)

  • Estrada, Gemma Esther;Park, Donghyun;Park, Innwon;Park, Soonchan
    • The Southeast Asian review
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.1-33
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    • 2014
  • 아세안은 한중일과의 무역을 통한 경제적 연계의 심화현상과 최근 글로벌 위기로 인한 경기침체를 고려하여 새로운 경제성장추진을 위해 동북아의 한중일 삼국과의 무역자유화를 적극 추진하고 있다. 이미 ASEAN-중국, ASEAN-일본, ASEAN-한국 양자간 자유무역협정(FTA)이 발효되어 실행되고 있으며, 이들 3개 양자협정을 아우르는 A+3FTA(ASEAN+중국+일본+한국) 논의도 진행중이다. 이에 본 연구는 이들 4개 자유무역협정의 경제적 효과를 분석하여 과연 A+3FTA가 아세안은 물론 동아시아 역내에서 보다 바람직한 통상정책인지를 평가한다. 본 논문의 정성적 평가는 기존의 경제통합의 경제적 효과를 결정하는 이론에 근거하여 참여국의 제반 경제적 현황(경제규모, 소득수준, 경제개발수준, 거래비용, 무역 및 산업구조, 관세율 등)을 통계적으로 비교 분석한다. 한편 정량적 평가는 무역의 경제적 파급효과 분석에 널리 이용되고 있는 연산가능한 일반균형모형(CGE)분석방법을 적용한다. 정태적 효과의 분석을 위해서 GTAP 모형을 이용하며, 이와 더불어 동태적으로 투자를 통한 자본축적을 반영하는 자본축적 CGE 모형분석을 병행한다. 분석결과 후생 및 생산확대 측면에서 아세안의 경우 일본과의 양자간 FTA가 한국이나 중국과의 FTA에 비해 보다 긍정적인 후생증진을 가져올 것으로 기대되며, 아세안과 한중일 모두에게 A+3FTA가 동아시아 역내에서 보다 바람직한 자유무역협정이 될 것으로 평가된다.

A Comparative Study on Economic Impacts of a China-Korea FTA and a Japan-Korea FTA using a Dynamic CGE Model (동태CGE모형을 이용한 한·일FTA와 한·중FTA의 경제적 효과 비교분석)

  • Ko, Jong-Hwan
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.423-453
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    • 2010
  • This study aims at quantifying potential economic effects on the Korean economy of a China-Korea FTA and a Japan-Korea FTA using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Most of the previous studies on them used static CGE models. Key findings of this study are that a China-Korea FTA would lead to a higher increase in Korea's exports and economic growth than a Japan-Korea FTA and that both a China-Korea FTA and a Japan-Korea FTA would cause additional trade deficits to Korea, which would be minuscule compared to Korea' economic trade volume. Since potential economic impacts on Korea's industry output and exports by sector of a China-Korea FTA and a Japan-Korea FTA are forecast to be complementary, i.e., major sectors which would run trade deficits from a Japan-Korea FTA would run trade surpluses from a China-Korea FTA, a simultaneous pursuit of both a China-Korea FTA and a Japan-Korea FTA would be more desirable and beneficial to Korea. This study shows that a dynamic CGE model which can take explicit account of international capital mobility and ownership is required for more precise estimation of effects of the FTAs.

Environmental and Economic Impact of EV and FCEV Penetration into the Automobile Industry: A CGE Approach (전기 및 수소차 보급 확산의 환경적·경제적 영향분석: 계산가능일반균형모형(CGE)의 적용)

  • Han, Taek-Whan;Lim, Dongsoon;Kim, Jintae
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.231-276
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    • 2019
  • This paper analyzed the impact of the penetration of EV(electric vehicle) and FCEV(fuel cell electric vehicle) into the automobile industry, using a static CGE approach. There are contrasting view on the economic impact of EV/FCEV penetration: negative economic impact due to shrunken intermediate inputs versus positive impact because of input saving technical progress. Regarding environment, there is no clear consensus whether EV or FCEV will contribute to the reduction of $CO_2$ emissions in Korea. This study attempts to provide an answer to these questions. By giving shocks to the input coefficients of automobile industries and automobile using sectors, as well as to the final demands for energies. we integrated the Bass diffusion model into the CGE framework, The result suggests that the EV penetration has adverse impact on the $CO_2$ emission while the FCEV penetration has positive impact. On the other hand, both EV and FCEV have positive impacts on GDP. When considering automobile manufacturing sectors only, adverse impacts on $CO_2$ are demonstrated both for EV and FCEV. However, since the size of $CO_2$ increase is small, these results does not alter the overall effects.

General Equilibrium Effects of Trade Liberalization on the Diffusion of Environment-friendly Fuels (관세철폐가 친환경연료 산업에 미치는 일반균형적 파급 효과)

  • Bae, Jeong-Hwan
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.23-51
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    • 2009
  • This research alms at quantifying economic impacts of free trading policy on environment-friendly fuel industry applying a static general equilibrium (CGE) model for Korea. Theoretically, 'polluters haven' hypothesis had been debated as major issue on the environmental effects of trade liberalization during 1970s and 1980s but recent literature emphasizes that production, scale, structural, and regulatory effects may derive rapid diffusion of environment friendly technologies. In this study, trade liberalization policy affects output of agricultural sectors negatively while that of biodiesel as environment-friendly technology positively. The rise m the output of biodiesel is derived from the reduction in import prices of agricultural products due to the abolishment of tariff. The policy implication from the analysis is that feedstock for producing biodiesel should be exploited in the foreign countries where productivity of agriculture is quite predominant compared to Korean agriculture.

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New Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of the Effects of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Policies (새로운 연산가능일반균형모형을 이용한 온실가스 감축정책의 영향 분석)

  • Han, Minsoo;Moon, Jin-Young
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.169-205
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    • 2021
  • This study quantitatively analyzes the impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction policies on the global economy. To this end, we develop a multi-national and multi-industry static computational general equilibrium model that includes three components-GHG emissions from production, disutility due to GHG emissions, and governments' GHG emissions reduction policies. Then we calibrate the model with the relevant data and solve for the equlibrium using the most recent methodology (exact hat algebra). We find that the strengthening of unilateral GHG emissions reduction policies for each country reduces carbon emissions from domestic producers, but does not necessarily reduce global carbon emissions as production is relocated to other countries. On the other hand, we can reduce GHG emissions when all major countries simultaneously implement the strengthened reduction policies proposed by the OECD (2016). Our results imply that aligned reduction efforts of major countries are necessary to reduce global GHG emissions.

Emission regulation and the carbon leakage: the impact of the consumption based carbon accounting and the border adjustment measure (배출규제가 탄소누출에 미치는 영향 분석 및 전망: 소비 관점의 탄소회계와 국경조치의 영향을 중심으로)

  • Oh, Inha
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.851-891
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    • 2012
  • The objective of this study can be presented as follows: First, given the consumption-based carbon accounting method which has now been claimed, this study reviews the emissions within Korea and the resulting position change in international society. Second, when each nation makes efforts to reduce carbon emissions under the Copenhagen Accord, this study, using the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, reviews the resulting carbon leakage and analyzes the effect from the various border adjustment measures. However, reflecting uncertainties in the negotiation processes, this study attempts to apply scenarios with regards to the reduction-mandatory nation group. In addition, this study tries to observe the impact on Korea through testing the various border adjustment measures, including the free allocation and embodied carbon tariffs.

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