• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.22 no.1_2
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• pp.363-417
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• 2000

우리 경제는 외환위기를 계기로 단기금융시장을 포함한 국내 자본시장이 전면 개방된 동시에 외환거래 역시 대폭 자유화됨에 따라 실물부문은 물론 금융부문에 있어서도 완전한 개방경제체제로 전환하였다. 이러한 전면적인 자본시장 개방은 국내외 자본시장의 통합을 촉진하는 동시에 환율, 금리, 물가 등 거시 금융변수간의 상충관계(trade-off)에 변화를 초래함으로써 거시경제정책 환경도 크게 변호시킬 것으로 기대된다. 본고에서는 국내외 금리 및 주가간의 동조화 현상에 초점을 맞추어 자본시장 개방에 따른 국내외 자본시장 통합 효과를 살펴본 후, 자본시장 개방이 환율변동패턴의 통계적 특성에 어떠한 영향을 미쳤는지를 분석하였다. 특히 외환위기를 계기로 국내 자본시장이 제도적으로 완전 개방된 점을 고려하여 위기 이전과 이후에 자본시장 통합도와 환율 변동패턴에 어떠한 변화가 발생하였는지를 실증분석하였다. 금리에 대한 실증분석 결과는 외환위기 이후 금리재정거래(金利裁定去來)(interest parity)가 국내금리변화에 미치는 영향이 크게 확대되고 있음을 나타내고 있다. 주가에 대한 실증분석의 경우에도 미국과 국내주가 간의 동조화 현상이 외환위기 이후 심화되고 있으며, 국내 주식시장이 효율적 시장가설(efficient market hypothesis)을 지지하는 방향으로 변화하고 있음을 나타내고 있다. 환율의 경우에도 외환위기 이후 환율변동패턴에 임의보행(random walk)적 특성이 보다 강화된 것으로 나타나고 있어 외환시장의 효율성이 제고되었음을 시사하고 있다.

• Economic Analysis
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.1-36
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• 2021

Given the US dollar's status as a global safe haven, global factors, such as US monetary policy, may have considerable impacts on financial markets in other countries. Regarding such hypothesis, this paper looked at the impacts of US monetary policy on domestic bond and FX swap markets through an event study. According to our analysis, US monetary policy had significant positive impacts on domestic interest rates. In particular, it turned out to have bigger impacts on long-term products with high term premiums. By period, the correlation between US monetary policy and domestic interest rates was not significant before the financial crisis, but was clearly positive after the crisis. The US conventional monetary policy was seen to have big impacts on short-term and medium-term KTB yields, while its unconventional monetary policy had major impacts on long-term KTB yields. Moreover, FX swap rates reacted very sensitively to US monetary policy shocks before the financial crisis, while they did not show any significant reactions after the crisis. This suggests that, in line with the covered interest rate parity, the impact of US monetary policy shocks was transmitted to domestic financial markets mainly through swap rate adjustments before the global financial crisis, but through the changes in domestic interest rates during the post-crisis period.

• 월간 한농연
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• no.25
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• pp.22-25
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• 2004

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.90-102
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• 2018

In preparation of the increase in the domestic debts and the rise in the US interest rate, the Korean government has started to strengthen the regulation on the property market since 2017. So, it is likely that the sales in the domestic construction market would be decreased. Even in the overseas plant projects market, as there has been the continuous increase in the cost and the resulting increase in the losses, it looks hard for the large construction companies to keep their credit ratings as they are now. This study is designed to check Korean government's property policy and any possible problems caused by the overseas and domestic economic environment, which include the property market policy, interest rate, rise in the property price and lackluster sales in housing market. It showed the change in the credit ratings by finding out the sales, work capability, sales in non-governmental projects, operating profits and PF contingency liabilities. For this study, the questionnaires were sent to 30 practical experts to analyze the effect of the risk factor on the outside credit rating of large construction companies.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.55-62
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• 2019

This study analyzed the relationship between housing price, purchase price, Gini coefficient, interest rate, and the employment, considering that the change in housing price was an important factor influencing macroeconomic variables and income inequality. The panel VAR model was constructed considering the panel data, and the Granger causality, Impulse response and Variance dispersion analysis were performed. As a result, when compared to before and after the global financial crisis, it was shown that the rent price had an effect on income inequality, but in the following period, both the rent price and the selling price affected the income inequality. And that it has a large impact on inequality. In addition, the causality between income inequality and employment rate, interest rate, and tax rate was confirmed. Therefore, it is expected that it will be a desirable policy to mitigate income inequality considering the influence of policy variables for economic activation including government real estate policy.

• The Optical Journal
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• s.119
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• pp.85-91
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• 2009

올해 중고기업 정책자금이 지난해 3조 2000억원 보다 35% 늘어난 4조 3000억원으로 확정됐다. 중소기업청은 지난 12월 22일 이 같은 내용을 골자로 한 '2009년도 중소기업 정책자금 운용계획'을 발표하고, 올해 상반기중 자금의 70% 이상을 조기 집행한다고 밝혔다. 올해는 정책자금의 기준 금리를 지난해의 5.91%에서 5.07%로 0.84%포인트 인하하고, 자금을 기능강화(창업초기기업 개발기술 사업전환) 분야와 시장보완(신성장기반 지방주소기업지원 긴급경영안정 소상공인) 분야로 구분해 각각 4.37%, 4.74%의 차등 금리를 적용키로 했다. 각 자금에 대한 설명자료 및 신청방법 등은 중소기업진흥공단 홈페이지(www.sbc.or.kr)를 통해 안내받을 수 있다.

• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2007.11a
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• pp.517-522
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• 2007

본 연구는 미국경제의 영향을 비교적 많이 받고 있는 한국경제가 미국경제에서와 같이 집권정당별로 정당 간에 주가수익률을 비롯한 거시경제정책 뚜렷한 차이가 있을지를 분석하였다. 미국의 경우 공화당과 민주당은 각각 프리드먼과 케인즈 경제학을 바탕으로 그 경제 정책의 차이점을 나타내고 있다. 미국의 기존연구 결과들을 살펴보면, 대체로 주가 초과수익률, 금리수준, GDP성장률 및 실업률 등에서 집권정당별로 뚜렷한 차이점을 보이고 있는 것으로 발표되고 있다. 본 연구의 분석결과, 우리나라의 경우에는 각 집권정부별로 상이한 특징을 발견할 수 있었다. 첫째, 김영삼대통령정부들어서부터 통화정책의 외생성이 나타나면서, 통화가 증가하면서 인플레이션율에 영향을 주었고 이는 다시 주가수익률과 경기동행지수증가율에 긍정적인 작용을 한 시기로 나타나고 있다. 둘째, 김대중대통령정부 기간 중에는 주가수익률, 회사채수익률과 경기동행지수증가율 사이에 특별한 외생성이 없이 상호영향을 준 시기로 판단된다. 셋째, 노무현대통령정부 기간 동안에는 금리하향 안정세가 뚜렷한 가운데 이로 인한 유동성이 주가수익률에 연결된 시기로 보인다.

• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2007.11a
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• pp.523-535
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• 2007

본 연구는 미국경제의 영향을 비교적 많이 받고 있는 한국경제가 미국경제에서와 같이 집권정당별로 정당 간에 주가수익률을 비롯한 거시경제정책 뚜렷한 차이가 있을지를 분석하였다. 미국의 경우 공화당과 민주당은 각각 프리드먼과 케인즈 경제학을 바탕으로 그 경제 정책의 차이점을 나타내고 있다. 미국의 기존연구 결과들을 살펴보면, 대체로 주가 초과수익률, 금리수준, GDP성장률 및 실업률 등에서 집권정당별로 뚜렷한 차이점을 보이고 있는 것으로 발표되고 있다. 본 연구의 분석결과, 우리나라의 경우에는 각 집권정부별로 상이한 특징을 발견할 수 있었다. 첫째, 김영삼대통령정부들어서부터 통화정책의 외생성이 나타나면서, 통화가 증가하면서 인플레이션율에 영향을 주었고 이는 다시 주가수익률과 경기동행지수증가율에 긍정적인 작용을 한 시기로 나타나고 있다. 둘째, 김대중대통령정부 기간 중에는 주가수익률, 회사채수익률과 경기동행지수증가율 사이에 특별한 외생성이 없이 상호영향을 준 시기로 판단된다. 셋째, 노무현대통령정부 기간 동안에는 금리하향 안정세가 뚜렷한 가운데 이로 인한 유동성이 주가수익률에 연결된 시기로 보인다.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.46 no.1
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• pp.91-129
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• 2024

The Bank of Korea, through a legal amendment in 2011 following the financial crisis, was entrusted with the additional responsibility of financial stability beyond its existing mandate of price stability. Since then, concerns have been raised about the prolonged increase in household debt compared to income conditions, which could constrain consumption and growth and increase the possibility of a crisis in the event of negative economic shocks. The current accumulation of financial imbalances suggests a critical period for the government and central bank to be more vigilant, ensuring it does not impede the stable flow of our financial and economic systems. This study examines the applicability of the Integrated Inflation Targeting (IIT) framework proposed by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) for macro-financial stability in promoting long-term economic stability. Using VAR models, the study reveals a clear increase in risk appetite following interest rate cuts after the financial crisis, leading to a rise in household debt. Additionally, analyzing the central bank's conduct of monetary policy from 2000 to 2021 through DSGE models indicates that the Bank of Korea has operated with a form of IIT, considering both inflation and growth in its policy decisions, with some responsiveness to the increase in household debt. However, the estimation of a high interest rate smoothing coefficient suggests a cautious approach to interest rate adjustments. Furthermore, estimating the optimal interest rate rule to minimize the central bank's loss function reveals that a policy considering inflation, growth, and being mindful of household credit conditions is superior. It suggests that the policy of actively adjusting the benchmark interest rate in response to changes in economic conditions and being attentive to household credit situations when household debt is increasing rapidly compared to income conditions has been analyzed as a desirable policy approach. Based on these findings, we conclude that the integrated inflation targeting framework proposed by the BIS could be considered as an alternative policy system that supports the stable growth of the economy in the medium to long term.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.96-106
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• 2018

The government adopted activation policy of real estate to overcome low economic growth rate. Real estate activation plan adopted by the government raised credit limit by lowering the regulation, and reduced real estate investment cost by reducing the base rate. Also, delayed transfer tax on multi-house owner to activate real estate investment and resolved purchase right resale. Relief of real estate regulate caused increase of housing sales and price increase, and the real estate market changed to overheating aspect such as premium upon completion of lot sale in a short time. Such market atmosphere greatly increased household debs as owners own houses based on 'financial debt' instead of their income. Since 2017, real estate policy was reinforced to reduce household debts and lending rate was raised due to rise of base rate, accordingly, burden of household debt is expected to increase. This research suggested a plan for the Financial Supervisory Service to efficiently manage the financial world by analyzing the cause and problem of household debs.