• Title/Summary/Keyword: 정차시간 예측

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Development of a Traffic Accident Prediction Model and Determination of the Risk Level at Signalized Intersection (신호교차로에서의 사고예측모형개발 및 위험수준결정 연구)

  • 홍정열;도철웅
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.20 no.7
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    • pp.155-166
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    • 2002
  • Since 1990s. there has been an increasing number of traffic accidents at intersection. which requires more urgent measures to insure safety on intersection. This study set out to analyze the road conditions, traffic conditions and traffic operation conditions on signalized intersection. to identify the elements that would impose obstructions in safety, and to develop a traffic accident prediction model to evaluate the safety of an intersection using the cop relation between the elements and an accident. In addition, the focus was made on suggesting appropriate traffic safety policies by dealing with the danger elements in advance and on enhancing the safety on the intersection in developing a traffic accident prediction model fir a signalized intersection. The data for the study was collected at an intersection located in Wonju city from January to December 2001. It consisted of the number of accidents, the road conditions, the traffic conditions, and the traffic operation conditions at the intersection. The collected data was first statistically analyzed and then the results identified the elements that had close correlations with accidents. They included the area pattern, the use of land, the bus stopping activities, the parking and stopping activities on the road, the total volume, the turning volume, the number of lanes, the width of the road, the intersection area, the cycle, the sight distance, and the turning radius. These elements were used in the second correlation analysis. The significant level was 95% or higher in all of them. There were few correlations between independent variables. The variables that affected the accident rate were the number of lanes, the turning radius, the sight distance and the cycle, which were used to develop a traffic accident prediction model formula considering their distribution. The model formula was compared with a general linear regression model in accuracy. In addition, the statistics of domestic accidents were investigated to analyze the distribution of the accidents and to classify intersections according to the risk level. Finally, the results were applied to the Spearman-rank correlation coefficient to see if the model was appropriate. As a result, the coefficient of determination was highly significant with the value of 0.985 and the ranks among the intersections according to the risk level were appropriate too. The actual number of accidents and the predicted ones were compared in terms of the risk level and they were about the same in the risk level for 80% of the intersections.

A Study on the Direct connection Service Effectiveness in Gyeongbu(KTX) (경부선(KTX) 직결운행 도입 효과에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Ik-Hui;Kim, Yeong-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.25 no.5
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    • pp.91-100
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    • 2007
  • This study suggests direct connection service which has advantage of high-speed operation of KTX and access convenience of general train, and Pre-feasibility studies on the direct connection service. And analyze transportation demand change by the method as follows; It is to analyze the demand change of before and after KTX operation by previous transport data of Gyeongbu line, and calculate the coefficient of utilization using triggering demand by opening the 2nd phase of Gyeongbu line (Dongdaegu${\sim}$Busan). Through Pre-feasibility analysis, reduction $70{\sim}100$ minutes of train travel time and total revenue will increase about $100 thousand per day. Also, there will be environment-friendly effects of decreasing $CO_2$ emissions. But, Direct connection service need to highly cost ; Buying and Operation cost of KTX train. Therefore, we will be get more correct result of Pre-feasibility study on direct connection service, if there are concrete on buying the KTX action plans.

Estimation of Hourly Variations in Public Transit Demand according to the Addition of Sales Facilities to Railway Stations: Focusing on Metro and Bus Transit Demand (철도역사 판매시설 증축에 따른 시간대별 대중교통 수요 변화 추정: 지하철 및 버스 수요를 중심으로)

  • Jang, Jaemin;Moon, Dae Seop;Kim, Sujeong;Gim, Tae-Hyoung Tommy
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.630-638
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    • 2015
  • The total number of passengers on the KTX since its construction in 2004 surpassed 500 million in October, 2015. The operation of KTX made it possible to reach anywhere in a country in half a day, which subsequently altered people's lifestyle. As the KTX has become an important mode of transportation, there is a growing interest in the optimal size and location of its stations. Currently, the stations are constructed through public-private partnerships since a sufficient amount of budget is hard to secure only from the public sector; however, because railway stations are traditionally aimed at promoting public interests, an emphasis on the profitability of the private sector could compromise public interests. At this juncture, this study separately computes the number of users based on each of the two primary functions of the stations-as a railway station and as a sales facility-and estimates the numbers of people according to various transportation modes that are taken to access the stations. This estimation is applied to the case of Dongdaegu Station, which will open in 2016. Such an application helps to predict and respond to possible congestion as brought about by the expansion of the sales facility.

Protection for sea-water intrusion by geophysical prospecting & GIS (해수침투 방지를 위한 물리검층과 GIS 활용방안)

  • Han Kyu-Eon;Yi Sang-Sun;Jeong Cha-Youn
    • 한국지구물리탐사학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2000.09a
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    • pp.54-69
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    • 2000
  • There are groundwater trouble by high-salinity yield inducing sea-water intrusion in Cheju Island. It is used groundwater-GIS(Well-lnfo) in the maintenance and management of groundwater in Cheju Island to grasp groundwater trouble area and cause of high-salinity yield. For 16 wells certain to yield high-salinity, we logged specific electrical conductivity(EC) and tried to get hold of freshwater and saltwater relationship. As result of distribution of $Cl^-$ by depth, it is showed up groundwater trouble by high-salinity yield in the east coastal area and the partly north coastal area. The reason of high-salinity groundwater yield are low-groundwater level by the structure of geology and low-hydraulic gradient etc. There is necessity for management to development and use of groundwater in the high-salinity area, special management area.

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