• Title/Summary/Keyword: 정비도 예측

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Indirect discharge estimation using K-River and Monte Carlo simulation at the Confluence of the Seomjin River and Yocheon (K-River와 Monte Carlo Simulation을 이용한 섬진강 요천 합류부의 간접유량 산정)

  • Kang, Han Sol;Kim, Yeon Su;Noh, Joon Woo;Byeon, Ji-Seon;An, Hyun Uk
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.113-113
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    • 2022
  • 기후 변화에 따른 집중호우의 증가로 유례없는 홍수가 발생하기도 한다. 홍수 대비를 위한 수리구조물 설계 및 홍수 예측을 위해서는 기초자료인 유량 자료가 중요하며, 이는 Rating-curve를이용하여 산정하는 것이 일반적이다. 하지만, 이를 기왕의 데이터가 부족한 지역과 적용수위 이상에 대해 적용하는 것에 한계가 있다. 2020년 8월 섬진강에 발생한 홍수는 홍수량의 추정이 어려울 뿐 아니라 기존의 Rating curve를 활용하여 홍수량을 추정하는데 한계가 있다. 섬진강 하천정비기본계획(2021)에 따르면 섬진강 남원(신덕리) 관측소는 100년 빈도 홍수량이 7,470m3/s인 반면, 선형 보간을 통한 Rating curve 외삽 결과 약 23,000m3/s로 많은 차이 나는 것을 확인할 수 있다. 따라서, 본 연구에서는 외삽의 불확실성과 직접 측량에 어려움이 있는 홍수기 유량 추정을 위해 수리학적 해석 방법을 이용한 간접유량 산정기법을 제시하였다. 수치해석모형을 이용하여 홍수사상을 재현하고, 이를 역으로 이용하여 관측 수위와 근접한 계산 결과를 보인 입력 자료로부터 대상 지역의 유량을 간접적으로 산정하였다. 상류단 유량자료의 생성을 위하여 Rating curve의 변수에 대하여 무작위 조합을 생성하였고, K-River(1차원 수리해석 모형)를 이용하여 MCS(Monte Carlo Simulation)를 수행하였다. 계산된 수위와 관측 수위간 수위 재현성 평가(NSE, RSR)를 통해 최적 결과를 나타낸 Rating Curve의 변수들로부터 경계조건의 Rating Curve를 산정하였다. 방법론의 검증을 위해 요천 합류부에 적용하였으며, 그 결과 기존 곡선식의 외삽에 따른 유량 자료의 수위 재현성과 비교하여 개선된 것을 확인하였다. 이를 활용하여 수자원 유량 자료의 신뢰도 개선에 활용이 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

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Development of a Deep Learning-based Long-term PredictionGenerative Model of Wind and Sea Conditions for Offshore Wind Farm Maintenance Optimization (해상풍력단지 유지보수 최적화 활용을 위한 풍황 및 해황 장기예측 딥러닝 생성모델 개발)

  • Sang-Hoon Lee;Dae-Ho Kim;Hyuk-Jin Choi;Young-Jin Oh;Seong-Bin Mun
    • Journal of Wind Energy
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.42-52
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    • 2022
  • In this paper, we propose a time-series generation methodology using a generative adversarial network (GAN) for long-term prediction of wind and sea conditions, which are information necessary for operations and maintenance (O&M) planning and optimal plans for offshore wind farms. It is a "Conditional TimeGAN" that is able to control time-series data with monthly conditions while maintaining a time dependency between time-series. For the generated time-series data, the similarity of the statistical distribution by direction was confirmed through wave and wind rose diagram visualization. It was also found that the statistical distribution and feature correlation between the real data and the generated time-series data was similar through PCA, t-SNE, and heat map visualization algorithms. The proposed time-series generation methodology can be applied to monthly or annual marine weather prediction including probabilistic correlations between various features (wind speed, wind direction, wave height, wave direction, wave period and their time-series characteristics). It is expected that it will be able to provide an optimal plan for the maintenance and optimization of offshore wind farms based on more accurate long-term predictions of sea and wind conditions by using the proposed model.

Dynamic Equilibrium Position Prediction Model for the Confluence Area of Nakdong River (낙동강 합류부 삼각주의 동적 평형 위치 예측 모델: 감천-낙동강 합류점 중심 분석 연구)

  • Minsik Kim;Haein Shin;Wook-Hyun Nahm;Wonsuck Kim
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.56 no.4
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    • pp.435-445
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    • 2023
  • A delta is a depositional landform that is formed when sediment transported by a river is deposited in a relatively low-energy environment, such as a lake, sea, or a main channel. Among these, a delta formed at the confluence of rivers has a great importance in river management and research because it has a significant impact on the hydraulic and sedimentological characteristics of the river. Recently, the equilibrium state of the confluence area has been disrupted by large-scale dredging and construction of levees in the Nakdong River. However, due to the natural recovery of the river, the confluence area is returning to its pre-dredging natural state through ongoing sedimentation. The time-series data show that the confluence delta has been steadily growing since the dredging, but once it reaches a certain size, it repeats growth and retreat, and the overall size does not change significantly. In this study, we developed a model to explain the sedimentation-erosion processes in the confluence area based on the assumption that the confluence delta reaches a dynamic equilibrium. The model is based on two fundamental principles: sedimentation due to supply from the tributary and erosion due to the main channel. The erosion coefficient that represents the Nakdong River confluence areas, was obtained using data from the tributaries of the Nakdong River. Sensitivity analyses were conducted using the developed model to understand how the confluence delta responds to changes in the sediment and water discharges of the tributary and the main channel, respectively. We then used annual average discharge of the Nakdong River's tributaries to predict the dynamic equilibrium positions of the confluence deltas. Finally, we conducted a simulation experiment on the development of the Gamcheon-Nakdong River delta using recorded daily discharge. The results showed that even though it is a simple model, it accurately predicted the dynamic equilibrium positions of the confluence deltas in the Nakdong River, including the areas where the delta had not formed, and those where the delta had already formed and predicted the trend of the response of the Gamcheon-Nakdong River delta. However, the actual retreat in the Gamcheon-Nakdong River delta was not captured fully due to errors and limitations in the simplification process. The insights through this study provide basic information on the sediment supply of the Nakdong River through the confluence areas, which can be implemented as a basic model for river maintenance and management.

A Study on the Soil Conversion Factor of Underwater Soils (수중토사의 토량환산계수에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Sung-Sik;Bae, Yeon-Hoi;Moon, Hong-Duk
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.31 no.7
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    • pp.5-12
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    • 2015
  • In this study, the deposition of dredged soils from domestic rivers is simulated in the laboratory using a small soil box. In the tests, small sand with 0.002-0.85 mm, large sand with 0.85-2 mm, and gravel 4.75-5.6 mm are air or water-pluviated into the box. Such various deposition processes are simulated and their dry densities are measured. While dredging or piling such soils, their volume may change. The loss of such soils is calculated by a soil conversion factor C. The C value was determined as 0.91 for small sand, 0.96 for large sand, and 0.91 for gravel. The drainage through soil piles may occur and result in effective stress increase. This may cause the volume change of soils and in order to consider such effect it is necessary to recalculate C values. As a result, dry density increased by 5-12% when the drainage effect is considered. When the drainage effect is considered, the value of soil conversion factor C was 0.81 for small sand, 0.92 for large sand, and 0.82 for gravel. Eventually, the C value decreased up to 4-12%.

Modeling the effect of securing environmental flow using wastewater discharge on water qualifies of the three urban rivers in Taejeon (하수처리수를 이용한 하천유지유량 확보에 따른 대전 3대 하천에서의 수질모의)

  • Kim, Jeong-Kon;Yur, Joong-Hyun;Kim, Woo-Gu
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2005.05b
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    • pp.1373-1377
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    • 2005
  • 수질개선을 위한 많은 노력의 결과 대전광역시를 관통하는 대전 3태 하천인 갑천, 유등천, 대전천의 수질은 1990년 초반을 기점으로 많은 개선효과를 보이고 있다. 그러나 도시화에 따른 불투성층의 증가와 저류능력 감소, 치수를 목적으로 한 하도정비 등에 의하여 기저유출량은 과거에 비해 현저히 감소하였으며, 이로 인하여 갈수기에는 유량이 적어 생태적이고 친수적인 다양한 하천기능 수행에 많은 어려움을 초래하고 있다. 그러므로 대전광역시에서는 도심생태하천조성을 위한 방안으로 바람직한 하천기능을 회복하기 위하여 $70,000m^3/day$의 갑천수와 하수처리장에서 고도처리 된 $60,000m^3/day$의 방류수 중 $80,000m^3/day$를 각각 대전천과 유등천 상류지역에 공급하여 하천유지용수로서 사용하는 계획을 수립하였다. 하류지역에서의 갑천수와 고도처리 된 하수처리수를 대전천과 유등천의 상류지역에 하천유지용수로 공급함으로서 대전천과 유등천은 갈수기에도 각각 약 $1m^/sec,\;1.3m^3/sec$ 이상의 유량을 유지할 수 있을 것으로 예상된다. 갑천수와 고도처리수를 유지용수로 사용할 경우에 대한 수질변화를 QUAL2E를 이용하여 모의를 실시하였다. 유등천 합류부에서의 갑천수를 대전천 상류지역에 공급할 경우. 대전천에서의 수질은 $II\~III$등급을 유지할 것으로 보인다. 대전시의 지하철공사에서 발생하는 약 $9,600m^3/day$가량의 용출수와 대청호소수의 상수원수를 이용한 $10,000m^3/day$의 희석수를 유지용수로서 추가적으로 사용할 경우, 대전천의 BOD는 약 0.3mg/L가량의 개선효과가 있을 것으로 예상된다. 2011년 고도처리시설 완공시 방류수의 예상 수질은 BOD 10mg/L, TN 15mg/L, TP 2.0mg/L이하로 이를 유등천 상류부에 공급할 경우 유등천의 수질은 BOD 6.7mg/L, TN 9.80mg/L, TP 0.90mg/L를 나타낼 것으로 예측된다. 고도처리시설의 도입 후 금강 합류점에서 갑천의 예측 BOD는 7.4mg/L로 현재 9.0mg/L에 비하여 개선되지만 이는 금강수계 오염총량 관리계획의 시$\cdot$도 경계지점 목표수질인 5.9mg/L를 만족시키지 못하므로, 이를 만족시키기 위해서는 방류수 BOD 7.2mg/L이하로 처리해야 할 것으로 판단된다.

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A Predictive Bearing Anomaly Detection Model Using the SWT-SVD Preprocessing Algorithm (SWT-SVD 전처리 알고리즘을 적용한 예측적 베어링 이상탐지 모델)

  • So-hyang Bak;Kwanghoon Pio Kim
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.109-121
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    • 2024
  • In various manufacturing processes such as textiles and automobiles, when equipment breaks down or stops, the machines do not work, which leads to time and financial losses for the company. Therefore, it is important to detect equipment abnormalities in advance so that equipment failures can be predicted and repaired before they occur. Most equipment failures are caused by bearing failures, which are essential parts of equipment, and detection bearing anomaly is the essence of PHM(Prognostics and Health Management) research. In this paper, we propose a preprocessing algorithm called SWT-SVD, which analyzes vibration signals from bearings and apply it to an anomaly transformer, one of the time series anomaly detection model networks, to implement bearing anomaly detection model. Vibration signals from the bearing manufacturing process contain noise due to the real-time generation of sensor values. To reduce noise in vibration signals, we use the Stationary Wavelet Transform to extract frequency components and perform preprocessing to extract meaningful features through the Singular Value Decomposition algorithm. For experimental validation of the proposed SWT-SVD preprocessing method in the bearing anomaly detection model, we utilize the PHM-2012-Challenge dataset provided by the IEEE PHM Conference. The experimental results demonstrate significant performance with an accuracy of 0.98 and an F1-Score of 0.97. Additionally, to substantiate performance improvement, we conduct a comparative analysis with previous studies, confirming that the proposed preprocessing method outperforms previous preprocessing methods in terms of performance.

Estimation of Long-term Water Demand by Principal Component and Cluster Analysis and Practical Application (주성분분석과 군집분석을 이용한 장기 물수요예측과 활용)

  • Koo, Ja-Yong;Yu, Myung-Jin;Kim, Shin-Geol;Shim, Mi-Hee;Akira, Koizumi
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.27 no.8
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    • pp.870-876
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    • 2005
  • The multiple regression models which have two factors(population and commercial area) have been used to forecast the water demand in the future. But, the coefficient of population had a negative value because proper regional classification wasn't performed, and it is not reasonable because the population must be a positive factor. So, the regional classification was performed by principal component and cluster analysis to solve the problem. 6 regional characters were transformed into 4 principal components, and the areas were divided into two groups according to cluster analysis which had 4 principal components. The new regression models were made by each group, and the problem was solved. And, the future water demands were estimated by three scenarios(Active, moderate, and passive one). The increase of water demand ore $89.034\;m^3/day$ in active plat $49,077\;m^3/day$ in moderate plan, and $19,996\;m^3/day$ in passive plan. The water supply ability as scenarios is enough in water treatment plant, however, 2 reservoirs among 4 reservoirs don't have enough retention time in all scenarios.

Change Prediction of Forestland Area in South Korea using Multinomial Logistic Regression Model (다항 로지스틱 회귀모형을 이용한 우리나라 산지면적 변화 추정에 관한 연구)

  • KWAK, Doo-Ahn
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.42-51
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    • 2020
  • This study was performed to support the 6th forest basic planning by Korea Forest Service as predicting the change of forestland area by the transition of land use type in the future over 35 years in South Korea. It is very important to analyze upcoming forestland area change for future forest planning because forestland plays a basic role to predict forest resources change for afforestation, production and management in the future. Therefore, the transitional interaction between land use types in future of South Korea was predicted in this study using econometrical models based on past trend data of land use type and related variables. The econometrical model based on maximum discounted profits theory for land use type determination was used to estimate total quantitative change by forestland, agricultural land and urban area at national scale using explanatory variables such as forestry value added, agricultural income and population during over 46 years. In result, it was analyzed that forestland area would decrease continuously at approximately 29,000 ha by 2027 while urban area increases in South Korea. However, it was predicted that the forestland area would be started to increase gradually at 170,000 ha by 2050 because urban area was reduced according to population decrement from 2032 in South Korea. We could find out that the increment of forestland would be attributed to social problems such as urban hollowing and localities extinction phenomenon by steep decrement of population from 2032. The decrement and increment of forestland by unbalanced population immigration to major cities and migration to localities might cause many social and economic problems against national sustainable development, so that future strategies and policies for forestland should be established considering such future change trends of land use type for balanced development and reasonable forestland use and conservation.

Philosophical and Social Backgrounds and Inquiry into New Direction of Practical Arts and Home Economics Education (실과 및 가정과 교육의 철학적, 사회적 배경 고찰과 미래 방향 탐색)

  • Park, Soon-Ja
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.19 no.1 s.43
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    • pp.115-131
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    • 2007
  • Philosophical and social backgrounds and inquiring into new direction of Practical Arts and Home Economics Education is done through this paper. The overall review of the related documents, records, books has been done, and research findings are presented as follows; Thought(Educational theory and Philosophy) for Korean Practical Arts Education is based on Learning to Labor, Practical Science and Pragmatism. Korean curriculum for Home Economics were originated in Confucianism background, which stressed the importance of different gender roles for men and women. However, Korean Home Economics based on Home Economics Subject Matter has been developed without philosophical base unlike that of American Pragmatism and Critical Theory. Therefore, scientific recognition in a section of value recognition was separated and developed so far. Thus, we could not answer to social missions about keeping values of life corresponding with changing environment I also observed the analysis of revision curriculum of the mentioned subject, and the changes of concepts of Work and Prasix, necessity of Home Economics Education for fixing about a basic life education and a basic life skill, and reinforcement of the function in Home. And then, new directions is proposed that the role of Home Economics Education in school be reinforced for the upcoming low birth rate and the aging society(high proportion of the aged people). Because Characters on correct values of children and youths might be nurtured in home foremost.

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The Case Study on Performance Measurement Weighting for Efficient Value Engineering Study of Sewage Treatment Facliity (건설사업의 효율적인 리스크관리를 위한 RBES 분석기법과 적용에 대한 연구)

  • Park, Jaeil;Kim, Dongjin;Kim, Gyeonghyun;Lim, Jongkwon;Lee, Minjaee
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.125-133
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    • 2016
  • The Project Risk Management is intended to result in the effective management by identifying in advance and mitigating all significant risks including project risks and opportunities during the entire project life cycle - from project inception to completion of construction. It is impossible to predict an exact budget and construction duration before finishing a project. So, Washington Department of Transportation mandates that workshop-based risk management is conducted for projects over specific cost. However, the domestic construction sites have depended on numerical risk analysis without any workshop and efficient risk management have not made. Therefore, in this study, we propose the effective risk management using the RBES program which is very useful for workshop-based risk management and pre & post mitigation, by workshop-based risk management techniques. This proposed risk management approach is applied to a domestic 'A' river recovery project. It is concluded that we may expect the effect to mitigate the total cost overrun problem and the construction duration delay effect in the project by identifying significant risks and by preparing effective risk mitigation strategies.