• Title/Summary/Keyword: 정량적 예측

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Assessment of Risk Factors for Developmental Defects of the Enamel in Preterm (조산아의 발육성 법랑질 결함의 위험 요인 평가)

  • Shang-yon Park;Jaeho Lee;Hyung-Jun Choi;Chung-Min Kang
    • Journal of the korean academy of Pediatric Dentistry
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    • v.50 no.2
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    • pp.192-204
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    • 2023
  • This study aimed to determine the criteria for quantifying developmental defects of enamel in primary teeth in premature babies and to investigate the severity of developmental defects according to the gestational age, birth weight, systemic complications, and treatments received after preterm birth. Birth information, a history of complications, the duration of parenteral nutrition, and endotracheal intubation were investigated by retrospectively reviewing the admission and discharge records of premature babies in the neonatal intensive care unit. The Preterm Developmental Defects of Enamel (PDDE) index was designed by modifying the existing developmental defects of enamel index. Based on PDDE index, the evaluator scored developmental defects of enamel by classifying them as enamel hypomineralization and hypoplasia. The PDDE scores in the extremely preterm and extremely low birth weight groups were significantly higher than those in other groups. Furthermore, PDDE scores of premature babies with bronchopulmonary dysplasia, rickets, intraventricular hemorrhage, or necrotizing colitis were significantly higher than those in the control group. In addition, more than 50 days of endotracheal intubation and more than 20 days of parenteral nutrition were associated with significantly higher PDDE scores than those in the control group and were risk factors for developmental defects of enamel. This study provides basic information for identifying risk factors for developmental defects of enamel in premature babies.

Optimum Design of Soil Nailing Excavation Wall System Using Genetic Algorithm and Neural Network Theory (유전자 알고리즘 및 인공신경망 이론을 이용한 쏘일네일링 굴착벽체 시스템의 최적설계)

  • 김홍택;황정순;박성원;유한규
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.113-132
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    • 1999
  • Recently in Korea, application of the soil nailing is gradually extended to the sites of excavations and slopes having various ground conditions and field characteristics. Design of the soil nailing is generally carried out in two steps, The First step is to examine the minimum safety factor against a sliding of the reinforced nailed-soil mass based on the limit equilibrium approach, and the second step is to check the maximum displacement expected to occur at facing using the numerical analysis technique. However, design parameters related to the soil nailing system are so various that a reliable design method considering interrelationships between these design parameters is continuously necessary. Additionally, taking into account the anisotropic characteristics of in-situ grounds, disturbances in collecting the soil samples and errors in measurements, a systematic analysis of the field measurement data as well as a rational technique of the optimum design is required to improve with respect to economical efficiency. As a part of these purposes, in the present study, a procedure for the optimum design of a soil nailing excavation wall system is proposed. Focusing on a minimization of the expenses in construction, the optimum design procedure is formulated based on the genetic algorithm. Neural network theory is further adopted in predicting the maximum horizontal displacement at a shotcrete facing. Using the proposed procedure, various effects of relevant design parameters are also analyzed. Finally, an optimized design section is compared with the existing design section at the excavation site being constructed, in order to verify a validity of the proposed procedure.

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The Potential Acid Sulfate Soils Criteria by the Relation between Total-Sulfur and Net Acid Generation (전황함량과 순산발생능력의 상관관계를 통한 잠재특이산성토양 기준 설정)

  • Moon, Yonghee;Zhang, Yong-Seon;Hyun, Byung-Keun;Sonn, Yeon-Kyu;Park, Chan-Won;Song, Kwan-Cheol
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.45 no.6
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    • pp.904-909
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    • 2012
  • Acid sulfate soil (ASS) and potential acid sulfate soil (PASS) are distribution in worldwide and originate from sedimentary process, volcanic activity, or metamorphism and are problematic in agriculture and environmental due to their present and potential acidity developed by the oxidation. The PASS was defined as soil materials that had sulfidic layer more than 20 cm thick within 4 m of the soil profile and contained more than 0.15% of total-sulfur (T-S). A tentative interpretative soil classification system was proposed weak potential acid sulfate (T-S, 0.15-0.5%), moderate potential acid sulfate (T-S, 0.5-0.75%) and strong potential acid sulfate (T-S, more than 0.75%). PASS due to excess of pyrite over soil neutralizing capacity are formed. It provides no information on the kinetic rates of acid generation or neutralization; therefore, the test procedures used in acid base account (ABA) are referred to as static procedures. The net acid generation (NAG) test is a direct method to measure the ability of the sample to produce acid through sulfide oxidation and also provides and indication. The NAG test can evaluated easily whether the soils is PASS. The samples are mixed sandy loam and the PAS from the hydrothermal altered andesite (1:3, 1:8, 1:16, 1:20, 1:40, 1:80 and 1:200 ratios) in this study. We could find out that the NAG pH of the soil containing 0.75% of T-S was 2.5, and that of the soil has 0.15% of T-S was 3.8. NAG pH test can be proposed as soil classification criteria for the potential acid sulfate soils. The strong type has NAG pH of 2.5, the moderate one has NAG pH of 3.0, and the weak one has NAG pH of 3.5.

Analysis of National Stream Drying Phenomena using DrySAT-WFT Model: Focusing on Inflow of Dam and Weir Watersheds in 5 River Basins (DrySAT-WFT 모형을 활용한 전국 하천건천화 분석: 전국 5대강 댐·보 유역의 유입량을 중심으로)

  • LEE, Yong-Gwan;JUNG, Chung-Gil;KIM, Won-Jin;KIM, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.53-69
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    • 2020
  • The increase of the impermeable area due to industrialization and urban development distorts the hydrological circulation system and cause serious stream drying phenomena. In order to manage this, it is necessary to develop a technology for impact assessment of stream drying phenomena, which enables quantitative evaluation and prediction. In this study, the cause of streamflow reduction was assessed for dam and weir watersheds in the five major river basins of South Korea by using distributed hydrological model DrySAT-WFT (Drying Stream Assessment Tool and Water Flow Tracking) and GIS time series data. For the modeling, the 5 influencing factors of stream drying phenomena (soil erosion, forest growth, road-river disconnection, groundwater use, urban development) were selected and prepared as GIS-based time series spatial data from 1976 to 2015. The DrySAT-WFT was calibrated and validated from 2005 to 2015 at 8 multipurpose dam watershed (Chungju, Soyang, Andong, Imha, Hapcheon, Seomjin river, Juam, and Yongdam) and 4 gauging stations (Osucheon, Mihocheon, Maruek, and Chogang) respectively. The calibration results showed that the coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.76 in average (0.66 to 0.84) and the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency was 0.62 in average (0.52 to 0.72). Based on the 2010s (2006~2015) weather condition for the whole period, the streamflow impact was estimated by applying GIS data for each decade (1980s: 1976~1985, 1990s: 1986~1995, 2000s: 1996~2005, 2010s: 2006~2015). The results showed that the 2010s averaged-wet streamflow (Q95) showed decrease of 4.1~6.3%, the 2010s averaged-normal streamflow (Q185) showed decreased of 6.7~9.1% and the 2010s averaged-drought streamflow (Q355) showed decrease of 8.4~10.4% compared to 1980s streamflows respectively on the whole. During 1975~2015, the increase of groundwater use covered 40.5% contribution and the next was forest growth with 29.0% contribution among the 5 influencing factors.

A Study on the Construction Cost Risk through Analyzing the Actual Cost of Public Apartment (공공주택 실적공사비 분석을 통한 공사비 리스크에 관한 연구)

  • Yoon, Woo-Sung;Go, Seong-Seok
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.12 no.6
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    • pp.65-78
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    • 2011
  • Construction business, which is complex and long-term business, requires accurate estimation and verification in construction costs and payment procedure from project planning to the completion of construction phase. And more importantly, it is necessary to investigate and determine the risk factors related to construction costs during the entire process including design planning, construction drawings, and quantity calculating. But, currently, it is not seem to be adequate to cope with the risk and increased construction costs against the operational budget in terms of actual costs when screening and estimating the bidding cost of public apartment. Therefore, this study selected and analyzed 40 sites' report of construction completion account from 2004 to 2010 focused on the adequacy on the modification of contract and design planning and on the complication of the budget in the beginning of the project. This study deducted various risk causes and results by analyzing actual costs according to year, architectural area, region, construction cost and sale/lease classification. We could find out construction risk according to annual variation of government policy and economy, and also deducted risk items by construction characteristic according to region and architectural area. Study result, we first found out the problems of lowest price award system according to the construction costs. The weight of the cost increase risk was analyzed that subcontract and material costs are very high. Roof and tile work were analyzed highly in subcontract cost risk and reinforcing bar and cement were analyzed highly in material cost risk, among direct construction cost. Finally, this study results could be used in comparing the categories of the construction costs made by specific construction process, belonging to the construction costs, with the operational budget made in the beginning of the project that can enable to grasp unpredictable risks over the construction costs and making quantitative analysis for it through analyzing the range of fluctuation and variations led by the fluctuations in the actual construction costs.

Activation Analysis of Dual-purpose Metal Cask After the End of Design Lifetime for Decommission (설계수명 이후 해체를 위한 금속 겸용용기의 방사화 특성 평가)

  • Kim, Tae-Man;Ku, Ji-Young;Dho, Ho-Seog;Cho, Chun-Hyung;Ko, Jae-Hun
    • Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.343-356
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    • 2016
  • The Korea Radioactive Waste Agency (KORAD) has developed a dual-purpose metal cask for the dry storage of spent nuclear fuel that has been generated by domestic light-water reactors. The metal cask was designed in compliance with international and domestic technology standards, and safety was the most important consideration in developing the design. It was designed to maintain its integrity for 50 years in terms of major safety factors. The metal cask ensures the minimization of waste generated by maintenance activities during the storage period as well as the safe management of the waste. An activation evaluation of the main body, which includes internal and external components of metal casks whose design lifetime has expired, provides quantitative data on their radioactive inventory. The radioactive inventory of the main body and the components of the metal cask were calculated by applying the MCNP5 ORIGEN-2 evaluation system and by considering each component's chemical composition, neutron flux distribution, and reaction rate, as well as the duration of neutron irradiation during the storage period. The evaluation results revealed that 10 years after the end of the cask's design life, $^{60}Co$ had greater radioactivity than other nuclides among the metal materials. In the case of the neutron shield, nuclides that emit high-energy gamma rays such as $^{28}Al$ and $^{24}Na$ had greater radioactivity immediately after the design lifetime. However, their radioactivity level became negligible after six months due to their short half-life. The surface exposure dose rates of the canister and the main body of the metal cask from which the spent nuclear fuel had been removed with expiration of the design lifetime were determined to be at very low levels, and the radiation exposure doses to which radiation workers were subjected during the decommissioning process appeared to be at insignificant levels. The evaluations of this study strongly suggest that the nuclide inventory of a spent nuclear fuel metal cask can be utilized as basic data when decommissioning of a metal cask is planned, for example, for the development of a decommissioning plan, the determination of a decommissioning method, the estimation of radiation exposure to workers engaged in decommissioning operations, the management/reuse of radioactive wastes, etc.

Estimation of freeze damage risk according to developmental stage of fruit flower buds in spring (봄철 과수 꽃눈 발육 수준에 따른 저온해 위험도 산정)

  • Kim, Jin-Hee;Kim, Dae-jun;Kim, Soo-ock;Yun, Eun-jeong;Ju, Okjung;Park, Jong Sun;Shin, Yong Soon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.55-64
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    • 2019
  • The flowering seasons can be advanced due to climate change that would cause an abnormally warm winter. Such warm winter would increase the frequency of crop damages resulted from sudden occurrences of low temperature before and after the vegetative growth stages, e.g., the period from germination to flowering. The degree and pattern of freezing damage would differ by the development stage of each individual fruit tree even in an orchard. A critical temperature, e.g., killing temperature, has been used to predict freeze damage by low-temperature conditions under the assumption that such damage would be associated with the development stage of a fruit flower bud. However, it would be challenging to apply the critical temperature to a region where spatial variation in temperature would be considerably high. In the present study, a phenological model was used to estimate major bud development stages, which would be useful for prediction of regional risks for the freeze damages. We also derived a linear function to calculate a probabilistic freeze risk in spring, which can quantitatively evaluate the risk level based solely on forecasted weather data. We calculated the dates of freeze damage occurrences and spatial risk distribution according to main production areas by applying the spring freeze risk function to apple, peach, and pear crops in 2018. It was predicted that the most extensive low-temperature associated freeze damage could have occurred on April 8. It was also found that the risk function was useful to identify the main production areas where the greatest damage to a given crop could occur. These results suggest that the freezing damage associated with the occurrence of low-temperature events could decrease providing early warning for growers to respond abnormal weather conditions for their farm.

A Study of Life Safety Index Model based on AHP and Utilization of Service (AHP 기반의 생활안전지수 모델 및 서비스 활용방안 연구)

  • Oh, Hye-Su;Lee, Dong-Hoon;Jeong, Jong-Woon;Jang, Jae-Min;Yang, Sang-Woon
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.864-881
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: This study aims is to provide a total care solution preventing disaster based on Big Data and AI technology and to service safety considered by individual situations and various risk characteristics. The purpose is to suggest a method that customized comprehensive index services to prevent and respond to safety accidents for calculating the living safety index that quantitatively represent individual safety levels in relation to daily life safety. Method: In this study, we use method of mixing AHP(Analysis Hierarchy Process) and Likert Scale that extracted from consensus formation model of the expert group. We organize evaluation items that can evaluate life safety prevention services into risk indicators, vulnerability indicators, and prevention indicators. And We made up AHP hierarchical structure according to the AHP decision methodology and proposed a method to calculate relative weights between evaluation criteria through pairwise comparison of each level item. In addition, in consideration of the expansion of life safety prevention services in the future, the Likert scale is used instead of the AHP pair comparison and the weights between individual services are calculated. Result: We obtain result that is weights for life safety prevention services and reflected them in the individual risk index calculated through the artificial intelligence prediction model of life safety prevention services, so the comprehensive index was calculated. Conclusion: In order to apply the implemented model, a test environment consisting of a life safety prevention service app and platform was built, and the efficacy of the function was evaluated based on the user scenario. Through this, the life safety index presented in this study was confirmed to support the golden time for diagnosis, response and prevention of safety risks by comprehensively indication the user's current safety level.

Risk Ranking Analysis for the City-Gas Pipelines in the Underground Laying Facilities (지하매설물 중 도시가스 지하배관에 대한 위험성 서열화 분석)

  • Ko, Jae-Sun;Kim, Hyo
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.54-66
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    • 2004
  • In this article, we are to suggest the hazard-assessing method for the underground pipelines, and find out the pipeline-maintenance schemes of high efficiency in cost. Three kinds of methods are applied in order to refer to the approaching methods of listing the hazards for the underground pipelines: the first is RBI(Risk Based Inspection), which firstly assess the effect of the neighboring population, the dimension, thickness of pipe, and working time. It enables us to estimate quantitatively the risk exposure. The second is the scoring system which is based on the environmental factors of the buried pipelines. Last we quantify the frequency of the releases using the present THOMAS' theory. In this work, as a result of assessing the hazard of it using SPC scheme, the hazard score related to how the gas pipelines erodes indicate the numbers from 30 to 70, which means that the assessing criteria define well the relative hazards of actual pipelines. Therefore. even if one pipeline region is relatively low score, it can have the high frequency of leakage due to its longer length. The acceptable limit of the release frequency of pipeline shows 2.50E-2 to 1.00E-l/yr, from which we must take the appropriate actions to have the consequence to be less than the acceptable region. The prediction of total frequency using regression analysis shows the limit operating time of pipeline is the range of 11 to 13 years, which is well consistent with that of the actual pipeline. Concludingly, the hazard-listing scheme suggested in this research will be very effectively applied to maintaining the underground pipelines.

A Study for Continue and Decline of Abies koreana Forest using Species Distribution Model - Focused in Mt. Baekwun Gwangyang-si, Jeollanam-do - (종 분포 모형을 이용한 구상나무림의 지속 및 쇠퇴에 관한 연구 - 전라남도 광양시 백운산을 중심으로 -)

  • Cho, Seon-Hee;Park, Jong-young;Park, Jeong-Ho;Lee, Yang-Geun;Mun, Lee-man;Kang, Sang-Ho;Kim, Gwang-Hyun;Yun, Jong-Guk
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.104 no.3
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    • pp.360-367
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    • 2015
  • The present study investigated the habitats of Korean fir trees (Abies koreana E. H. Wilson) on Mt. Baekwun (Baekwun-san), determined the current distribution, quantified the contribution of biological and non-biological environmental factors affecting the distribution, derived actual and potential habitats, presented a plan for the establishment of protected areas, applied RCP 8.5 climate change scenario to analyze the effects of climate change on the future distribution of Korean fir trees, and predicted future potential habitats. According to the results of the study, 3,325 Korean fir trees (DBH >= 2.5 cm) inhabited Mt. Baekwun, and their distribution area was approximately 150 ha. Populations of Korean fir trees were confirmed to exist at an altitude of 900 m above sea level and were distributed up to 1,200 m. Based on potential distribution, areas appropriate for habitation by Korean fir trees were analyzed to be 450 ha, three times the current distribution area, with a focus on Sang Peak (Sang-bong), Eokbul Peak (Eokbul-bong), Ddari Peak (Ddari-bong), and Dosol Peak (Dosol-bong). The forest stands near Sang Peak, the main peak, were evaluated as those with the most appropriate potential for the habitation of Korean fir trees, and populations of the trees tended to prefer the northern slope rather than the southern slope. When climate change scenario RCP 8.5 was applied and future potential distribution was analyzed, the habitats were expected to decrease in area to 20 ha by 2050, with a focus on Sang Peak, and areas appropriate for habitation were predicted not to exist by 2080. Judging from such results, as global warming accelerates, the habitats of Korean fir trees are clearly expected to move from lowlands to highlands.