• Title/Summary/Keyword: 절단 확률

Search Result 64, Processing Time 0.027 seconds

A comparison study of inverse censoring probability weighting in censored regression (중도절단 회귀모형에서 역절단확률가중 방법 간의 비교연구)

  • Shin, Jungmin;Kim, Hyungwoo;Shin, Seung Jun
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
    • /
    • v.34 no.6
    • /
    • pp.957-968
    • /
    • 2021
  • Inverse censoring probability weighting (ICPW) is a popular technique in survival data analysis. In applications of the ICPW technique such as the censored regression, it is crucial to accurately estimate the censoring probability. A simulation study is undertaken in this article to see how censoring probability estimate influences model performance in censored regression using the ICPW scheme. We compare three censoring probability estimators, including Kaplan-Meier (KM) estimator, Cox proportional hazard model estimator, and local KM estimator. For the local KM estimator, we propose to reduce the predictor dimension to avoid the curse of dimensionality and consider two popular dimension reduction tools: principal component analysis and sliced inverse regression. Finally, we found that the Cox proportional hazard model estimator shows the best performance as a censoring probability estimator in both mean and median censored regressions.

특집 - 발까지 위협하는 혈관합병증

  • Hong, Ji-Yeong
    • The Monthly Diabetes
    • /
    • s.210
    • /
    • pp.17-18
    • /
    • 2007
  • 당뇨병성 족부병변은 당뇨병성 신경증, 허혈증, 그리고 골관절병 등에 의해서 감염, 궤양 등 하지의 조직이 파괴된 상태로 당뇨병환자의 하지절단, 사망률 등을 높이는 중요한 원인이다. 전세계적으로 하지절단의 가장 많은 원인이 당뇨병성 족부병변이며, 당뇨병환자는 정상인에 비해 하지절단의 위험이 약 15배 가량 높다. 또한 5$\sim$15% 정도의 당뇨병환자가 일생 동안 하지절단에 직면하게 된다고 하고, 한쪽 다리를 절단하면 다른 한쪽도 절단할 확률이 1$\sim$3년 이내에 40%, 3$\sim$5년 사이에 58% 정도이며, 일단 하지절단 후에는 3년 생존률이 50%에 이른다는 보고도 있다.

  • PDF

Determination of Explosive Weight for Cable Cutter through Impact Test (Impact Test를 통한 케이블커터의 화약량 산정)

  • Choi, Chang-Sun
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers
    • /
    • v.16 no.4
    • /
    • pp.16-22
    • /
    • 2012
  • We performed impact test to estimate necessary explosive charge weight for cutting the cable whose diameter is 22 mm. The impact test results were analyzed by Probit method. The cutting energy was calculated 37.7 J with 99.99% probability at 99% reliability compared to the average energy of 24.9 J. The cable was cut 3 times without failure with 150 mg of Zirconium Potassium Perchlorate (ZPP), which was considered to generate 24.5 J of mechanical energy with assumption that only 10% of explosive energy converts to mechanical energy. The calculated energy from measured pressure with 150 mg ZPP was 26.1 J, which is almost same with both impact test result and expected mechanical energy. We can argue that the cable can be cut with 99.99% probability at 99% reliability by 230 mg of ZPP.

당뇨병과 감염-내 발을 얼굴같이! 무서운 족부감염, 미리알고 예방하자.

  • Kim, Jae-Yeong
    • The Monthly Diabetes
    • /
    • s.199
    • /
    • pp.32-36
    • /
    • 2006
  • 감염의 조기 발견음 암도 그렇듯이 발을 쉽게 치료할 수가 있고 절단 가능성이 줄어든다. 늦게 발견하고 늦게 치료를 시작하면 발을 절단할 확률이 매우 높아진다는 사실을 명심하고 평소에 관리를 잘한다면 발 전단에 대한 정신적인 짐에서 벗어날수 있을 것이다.

  • PDF

중도절단된 생존함수의 신뢰구간 비교연구

  • Lee, Gyeong-Hwa;Lee, Jae-Won
    • Proceedings of the Korean Statistical Society Conference
    • /
    • 2005.05a
    • /
    • pp.251-255
    • /
    • 2005
  • 중도절단된 자료와 표본수가 적은 자료를 가지는 생존분석에서 생존율을 추정하거나 두 집단의 생존율을 비교할 때 정규분포 근사를 가정한 신뢰구간을 이용하는 데는 많은 어려움이 생긴다. 생존함수의 신뢰구간에 대한 중도절단을, 표본의 크기에 따른 다양한 상황의 모의실험을 통하여 Kaplan-Meier, Nelson, 적률 추정량 그리고 cox model의 ${\beta}$을 가지고 붓스트랩을 이용한 신뢰구간과 비모수 신뢰구간, 우도비 신뢰구간의 실제 포함 확률을 비교해보고자 한다.

  • PDF

Expected Probability Weighted Moment Estimator for Censored Flood Data (절단된 홍수 자료에 대한 확률가중적률 추정량)

  • Jeon, Jong-June;Kim, Young-Oh;Kim, Yong-Dai;Park, June-Hyeong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2010.05a
    • /
    • pp.357-361
    • /
    • 2010
  • 미래의 연별 최대 강수량 예측의 정확성을 향상시키는데 역사적 자료가 도움이 된다는 많은 연구 결과가 있었다. 관측의 오차와 자료의 손실로 역사자료를 이용한 강수 예측 방법은 절단자료의 분석을 중심으로 연구되었다. 대표적인 역사자료의 이용방법으로 조건부 적률을 이용한 B17B [Interagency Committee in Water Data, 1982], 조건부적률과적률 관계식을 이용한 Expected Moment Algorithm(EMA) [Cohn et al.;1997], 조건부 확률가중적률을 이용한 Partial Probability Weighted Moment (PPWM)[Wang ; 1991] 방법이 있다. 본 연구에서는 역사적 자료를 반영하는 방법에 있어 B17B와 EMA의 관계를 밝히고 그러한 관계가 PPWM에 동일하게 적용할 수 있음을 보였다. 우리는 B17B와 EMA의 관계를 적률방정식으로 표현하였고 PPWM에서 확률가중 적률 방정식을 정의함으로써 PPWM을 확장하였다. 본 연구에서 제안한 새로운 역사 자료를 이용한 강수예측 방법론을 Expected Probability Weighted Momemt (EPWM) 방법이라고 부르고 그 예측 방법의 성능을 다른 예측방법과 시뮬레이션 결과를 통해 비교하였다. 역사 자료 방법론의 비교는 Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) 분포를 이용하여 이루어졌으며, 각 방법론은 GEV분포의 형태모수(shape parameter)따라 다른 특성을 나타난다는 것을 보였다. 뿐만 아니라 여기서 제안한 EPWM 방법은 대부분의 경우에 좋은 추정량을 준다는 것을 보였다.

  • PDF

Call Admission Schemes for Multimedia Services in CDMA Cellular Systems (셀룰라 시스템에서 멀티미디어 서비스를 위한 호 수락제어 기법 연구)

  • Choi Sung-Gu
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
    • /
    • v.31 no.3B
    • /
    • pp.232-238
    • /
    • 2006
  • We propose a novel call admission control scheme which improves the handoff drop and the new call block probabilities of high priority services, minimizing the negative impact on low priority services, in multimedia service cellular networks. This paper proposes three schemes to solve this problem; the packing scheme in which available channels of a cell distributed to each frequency channel are concentrated on one frequency channel and a high transmission rate service is assigned to the frequency channel; the queuing scheme in which the queue is used for high transmission rate calls; and the power reallocation scheme in which the power assigned to calls under service is temporarily reduced and a high transmission rate service is allowed. The simulation results revealed that our scheme improved the drop and the block probabilities of the high priority services compared with the conventional scheme.

Statistical analysis of the energy for cable cutting (케이블 절단에 필요한 에너지 통계적 분석)

  • Choi, Chang-Sun;Kang, Won-Kyu
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
    • /
    • 2011.11a
    • /
    • pp.400-403
    • /
    • 2011
  • We performed Instron and Impact tests to estimate necessary explosive charge weight for cutting the cable whose diameter is 22 mm. The cutting energy measured by Instron was 21.3 J. Impact test were performed 8 times each at 5 different energies. The Impact test results were analysed by Probit methods. The cutting energy was calculated 37.7 J with 99.99% probability at 99% confidence, which is roughly equivalent to 250 mg of Zirconium potassium Perchlorate (ZPP).

  • PDF

A Study on Drought Trend in Han River Basin (한강유역의 가뭄경향에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Hyeong-Su;Mun, Jang-Won;Kim, Jae-Hyeong;Kim, Jung-Hun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.33 no.4
    • /
    • pp.437-446
    • /
    • 2000
  • THe drought analysis is performed by applications of truncation level method and conditional probability concept for hydrologic time series in Han river basin. The distributed trend of conditional probability is determined using kriging method for the time series. This study uses daily flowrate, monthly rainfall, and daily high temperature data sets. The daily flowrate data of 12 years(1986~1997) is used for the analysis. Also, the 14 years' data sets(1986~1999) for monthly rainfall and daily high temperature obtained from the National Weather Service of Korea are used in this study. In the cases of flowrate and rainfall data sets, the estimated value corresponding to the truncation level is decreased as the truncation level is increased but in the high temperature data, the value is increased as the truncation level is increased. The conditional probability varies according to the observations and sites. However, the distributed trend of drought is similar over the basin. As a result, the possibility of the drought is high in the middle and lower parts of Han river basin and thus it is recommended the distributed trend of drought be considered when the plan or measures for drought are established.

  • PDF

Performance analysis of session admission control based on area for software download in cellular CDMA systems (셀룰러 CDMA 시스템에서 소프트웨어 다운로드를 위한 영역 기반 세션수락제어방식 성능분석)

  • 김광식;조무호
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
    • /
    • v.28 no.5A
    • /
    • pp.294-304
    • /
    • 2003
  • For an efficient software download in cellular CDMA systems, session admission control based on area (SACA) is presented. In the SACA scheme, the base station only allows mobile terminal to start session when the mobile locates near the base station of a cell. A mobile that is located near cell center can request software download session, but the mobile that is far away from the center can request session only after arriving near the cell center. Session duration time follows exponential and Pareto distribution. Performance is analyzed in terms of handoff rate, mean channel holding time, session blocking probability and handoff forced termination probability. As analysis results, handoff rate between cells in the proposed scheme is reduced to 30 ~ 250 % compared to conventional scheme, according to traffic characteristics such as terminal speed, session duration time and the size of the allowable zone area in a cell for the start of the session. And new session blocking probability slightly decreases to 5 ~ 20 %, but handoff session forced termination probability drastically decreases to 35 ~ 220 %.